Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of methanol is still weak, with high port inventory pressure. The attitude of methanol warehousing enterprises and downstream towards Iranian ships may be affected by the sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States. There are more short - term temporary overhauls in Iran, but the winter overhaul plan has not been announced. Coal - based methanol production in the inland has increased in November, and inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand from inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][33] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [40][49][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][59]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main ethylene glycol (EG) contract was 4,109 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,183 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis in East China was 84 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$52/ton, up $8/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -586 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 million tons (up 3.8 million tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 48.3 million tons (down 1 million tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 19.8 million tons, and at the secondary ports 4.5 million tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load was operating at a high level. Overseas, there were still significant supply losses, with two or more Saudi Arabian plants shut down or operating at low loads. However, the supply would be postponed in the short term due to issues with certain vessels related to the US. On the demand side, the polyester downstream market had moderately improved with the recent cooling, boosting market sentiment [1]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Despite the high supply and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the price had fallen to near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs had boosted market sentiment [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. 4. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China, but specific analysis content is not provided in the given text [1][3][4]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG are mentioned, along with their month - on - month changes. The report also includes data on the total EG load and the syngas - based EG load, but no detailed analysis is given [1][3][4]. International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no detailed analysis is provided [3][4][17]. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The report includes data on the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. However, no in - depth analysis is provided [3][4][18]. Inventory Data - The inventory data of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China are presented, including the data from CCF and Longzhong, and the planned arrivals this week are also given. The report also mentions the inventory at specific ports such as Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided [1][3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures main contracts on October 27, 2025 was mixed, with some rising and some falling. The overall market showed different trends for various commodities. The prices of some commodities were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events [6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, Shanghai copper opened and closed higher. Optimistic market expectations from China - US - Malaysia talks, lower - than - expected US CPI, and copper mine supply shortages due to accidents led to an upward drive for copper prices. Although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, low inventory and rigid demand supported the upward trend [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and fluctuated strongly. In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports increased. The supply side was growing steadily, while the downstream demand for energy - storage batteries was strong, which supported the price. However, there were still market risks due to the absence of news about CATL's resumption of production [11] - **Gold and Silver**: For the domestic futures main contracts as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025, funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 and Shanghai silver 2512, with outflows of 1.729 billion and 1.219 billion respectively [7] - **Nickel**: Funds flowed out of Shanghai nickel 2512, with an outflow of 299 million as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract rose nearly 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about demand. However, due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical events, the oil price was expected to rebound from a low level [12][14] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November decreased. The downstream construction rate increased, and the inventory was at a low level. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price was expected to follow the upward trend [15] Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream construction rate of PP increased slightly, and the enterprise construction rate was at a neutral - low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected. PP was expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17] - **Plastic**: The plastic construction rate increased, and the downstream construction rate was at a low - level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the demand was less than expected. Plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price increased, the PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export expectation in the fourth quarter decreased, and the inventory was high. PVC was expected to fluctuate [20] Agricultural Products - **Eggs**: The main egg futures contract rose more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] - **Red Dates**: The main red date futures contract fell more than 5% on October 27, 2025 [6] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: The main contract of container shipping to Europe line fell more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and fluctuated strongly. The import of Mongolian coal decreased, and the domestic supply was short. The demand from coking enterprises supported the price, but the demand from steel mills was pessimistic. It was expected to remain strong [21][22] - **Urea**: The urea futures closed flat on October 27, 2025. The spot price rose, and the production was expected to decrease in the future. The demand was gradually ending, and the inventory was high. It was expected to fluctuate at a low level [23] - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with increases of 1.24%, 0.74%, 1.76%, and 0.75% respectively [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with increases of 0.05%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.32% respectively [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sanctions and geopolitical factors drive up crude oil prices, causing styrene prices to rise with increasing costs. However, due to various negative factors, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4]. - The supply of pure benzene overseas has contracted, but weak demand restricts its price increase. The overall market is still affected by the sluggish downstream demand [37]. - The downstream of styrene is generally weak, with issues such as increased inventory and decreased production load in various sectors [51][60][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Multiple factors affect styrene. Supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies are all bearish; inventory and valuation are neutral. The investment view is that it will fluctuate, and the trading strategy suggests taking a wait - and - see approach [4]. - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia remains severely negative, with the styrene - naphtha spread at about $253 and the styrene - benzene spread at $130 [4]. - **Demand**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but market expectations are poor. As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.9 tons compared to the previous period, a 10% increase. The supply side has increased maintenance, but the low operating rate of derivatives has led to a decline in demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples increased by 0.6 tons compared to the previous period, a 3.05% increase. The commercial inventory increased by 0.1 tons, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis is stable. There are concerns that overseas sanctions may reduce supply - side raw materials [4]. - **Profit**: The styrene - naphtha spread is about $253, and the combined spread of benzene - naphtha and PX - naphtha is about $364 [4]. - **Valuation**: The significant rebound in crude oil prices and the contraction of overseas pure benzene supply may disrupt styrene production due to raw material supply [4]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The escalation of sanctions against Russia has led to a strong upward trend in crude oil prices [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene has declined, and port inventories have slightly decreased [14][25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas supply has contracted, but weak demand restricts the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream** - **ABS**: The domestic ABS market is weak, with factors such as price, inventory, and production all showing signs of decline [51]. - **PS**: PS inventory has increased, and the production load has decreased [60]. - **EPS**: EPS inventory has accumulated [69]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream** - **Aniline**: Aniline profit has rebounded, and inventory has increased [79]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory has further decreased [90]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production profit of adipic acid has not improved [101]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production remains stable, but the price has decreased [114]. - **Household Appliances**: The year - on - year demand for household appliance exports has decreased [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for spreads, EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread; for cross - variety, none [4] Core View - This week, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the basis strengthened significantly. The domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level, while overseas supply losses remain high. Recently, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, boosting market sentiment [1][3] Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated upward, and the basis strengthened significantly. At the beginning of the week, the ethylene glycol port inventory continued to rise, putting pressure on the ethylene glycol futures. In the middle of the week, with the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil rebounded. Affected by the possible delay of Saudi arrivals and the cancellation of the loading of some Iranian cargoes, the ethylene glycol price rose rapidly [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 73.28% (a 3.88% decrease from last week), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 82.21% (a 0.32% increase from last week). With the maintenance and shutdown of plants such as Shenghong, Fujian Refining & Petrochemical, and Zhongke, the total EG load declined from a high level this week. Recently, the coal - based production has decreased, but the reduction of supply - side plants is not obvious, and the supply is still at a high level [1] Demand - The load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), the load of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 84.0% (a 4.0% increase from last week), the polyester operating rate is 91.40% (unchanged from last week), and the direct - spinning filament load is 92.40% (a 0.40% decrease from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased significantly. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 94.3% (unchanged), and the inventory days of polyester staple fiber plants' equity inventory have decreased. The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 73.2% (a 0.8% increase from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders have improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded significantly, and the raw material rebound has also driven centralized restocking. The filament inventory has been significantly reduced. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving mills is not high. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month will bring favorable factors to drive external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester plants is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load of polyester in October and November is expected to be slightly increased [2] Inventory - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 57.9 tons (a 3.8 - ton increase from last week); according to the data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 48.3 tons (a 1.0 - ton decrease from last week). According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports of East China this week are 5.3 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports are 6.3 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 48.3 tons, 3 tons lower than on Monday this week and 1 ton lower than on Thursday last week [3]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have rebounded significantly this week, ending a previous downward trend, driven by rising crude oil prices and increased coal prices, despite a still loose supply situation [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has seen a slight decrease in operating rates, with a current rate of 76.6%, down from a peak of 78% [2] - Seasonal maintenance of methanol production facilities is expected to reduce supply as winter approaches, with several plants scheduled for repairs [2] - High port inventories are suppressing prices in the East China market, while inland inventories remain at historically low levels [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a significant drop in methanol prices due to falling crude oil prices, but a rebound has occurred driven by rising crude and coal prices [5] - The methanol market is characterized by weak current realities but expectations for improvement, with limited downside potential for prices [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - Traditional demand has softened post-October, but overall demand levels remain relatively stable due to new downstream facilities coming online [3] - The operating rates for downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde have decreased, contributing to the recent demand decline [3] Group 4: Inventory Levels - Port inventories have been accumulating but at a slowing rate, currently at 1.535 million tons, while inland inventories are at their lowest in recent years [4] - Downstream enterprises are experiencing a slight reduction in inventory levels, with expectations for replenishment in the coming weeks [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to high supply, but the price has dropped to near the April low. With a modest improvement in demand, market sentiment has been boosted. Attention should be paid to issues such as ships involved in US - related matters and shipping fees. No recommendations were made for inter - period or inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures and spot markets: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton (a change of +44 yuan/ton or +1.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton (a change of +64 yuan/ton or +1.55% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton). Due to tight supply during the delivery period and the cancellation of the loading of some Iranian goods, the EG price increased, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - Production profit: According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton) [1] - Inventory: According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons). As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons, 3 tons lower than on Monday of this week and 1 ton lower than on Thursday of last week [2] - Overall fundamental supply - demand logic: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants are still in a state of shutdown or low - load operation. However, due to some ships being involved in US - related issues, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved, which has a certain boosting effect on the overall sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the text, only the chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR was mentioned [21] 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - No specific data was provided in the text, only charts related to downstream production, sales, and operating rates such as filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, etc. were mentioned [22][25] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to different data sources, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China showed different trends. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons [2]

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/24 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 0/17 61.3 537 783 4340 6465 87.74 246.0 95 226 80.7 76.0 44590 -85 0.50 2025/1 0/20 61.0 552 798 4315 6390 92.72 246.0 44 177 80.7 76.0 47536 -85 0.55 2025/1 0/21 61.3 540 784 4320 6340 90.52 244.0 70 131 80.7 76.0 48538 -87 1.65 2025/1 0/22 62.6 552 798 4370 6380 92.72 246.0 44 118 80.7 76.0 48742 -88 0.75 2025/1 0/23 62.6 552 798 4425 6360 92.72 246.0 44 29 80 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-10-23 地产下游销售低位，关注能源上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）有记者向外交部发言人郭嘉昆提问，在与中国商务部部长王文涛会谈之后，欧盟委员会贸易和经 济安全委员谢夫乔维奇表示，欧盟和中国官员已同意在布鲁塞尔举行紧急会谈，讨论中国针对稀土的出口管制问 题。外交部能否确认这一会谈并提供更多信息？对此郭嘉昆表示，中欧经贸关系的本质是优势互补、互利共赢。 希望欧方恪守支持自由贸易、反对贸易保护主义的承诺。 服务行业：1）深圳市地方金融管理局等多部门印发《深圳市推动并购重组高质量发展行动方案（2025—2027年）》， 其中提出，力争到2027年底，辖区上市公司质量全面提升，境内外上市公司总市值突破20万亿元，培育形成千亿 级市值企业20家。行动方案支持集成电路、人工智能、新能源、生物医药等战略性新兴产业领域开展上下游并购 重组，以及加快实施国有企业战略性重组和专业化整合。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）黑色：玻璃价格回落较多。2）农业：棕榈油价格小幅回落。3）能源：煤炭库存回落，液化天然气价格 回升。 中游：1）化工：PX、尿素开工率保持高位。2） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on multiple factors including the domestic economic situation, Sino - US tariff frictions, the US government shutdown, and commodity market trends. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for commodities in the short - term, and points out potential opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed signs of weakness with characteristics such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The government has proposed measures to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, September's retail sales growth slowed to 3% compared to August, and industrial value - added growth accelerated to 6.5%. Housing prices in 70 cities declined in September, with second - and third - tier cities' second - hand housing prices falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare - earth technology and charging special port fees on US ships. Both sides have agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2] - As of October 22, the US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second - longest in history. Economic data releases have been delayed, and the market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed 13.9 trillion yen from last year [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term due to high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints and is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels last week. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. For precious metals, short - term price fluctuations are risky, but there are long - term buying opportunities at low prices. On October 22, spot gold fell below $4,070 per ounce, with a decline of over $70 per ounce in 30 minutes [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - On October 21, Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video call with the EU Commissioner, discussing key economic and trade issues. China's rare - earth export control is a normal measure to improve the export control system [7] - The US government shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record of Trump's first term [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures centered around three pillars: anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security [7] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week, along with changes in other oil product inventories [7] - Russian President Putin will not attend the G20 summit in South Africa in person [7] - Spot gold prices dropped sharply on October 22 [7]