Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Black Metal Daily - Ferroalloy Daily, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5466, daily change 76, weekly change 10, trading volume 354,243, daily change 121,697, open interest 254,583, daily change -3,190 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5738, daily change 122, weekly change 108, trading volume 256,244, daily change 143,035, open interest 253,444, daily change -61,711 [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia priced at 5250, daily change 50, weekly change 20; in Ningxia 5200, daily change 0, weekly change -30; in Qinghai 5250, daily change 0, weekly change -20; in Jiangsu 5500, daily change 0, weekly change -20; in Tianjin 5400, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Si - Mn 6517 in Inner Mongolia priced at 5530, daily change 30, weekly change 10; in Ningxia 5510, daily change 30, weekly change 30; in Guangxi 5550, daily change 20, weekly change 20; in Jiangsu 5700, daily change 50, weekly change 30; in Tianjin 5680, daily change 50, weekly change 30 [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main contract basis -216, daily change -26, weekly change 10; Ningxia - Main contract -266, daily change -76, weekly change -40; Qinghai - Main contract -216, daily change -76, weekly change -30; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread 250, daily change -50, weekly change -40; SF - SM spread -272, daily change -46, weekly change -98 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract basis -208, daily change -92, weekly change -98; Ningxia - Main contract -228, daily change -92, weekly change -78; Guangxi - Main contract -188, daily change -102, weekly change -88; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread 20, daily change -10, weekly change 10 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump ore priced at 40, daily change 0, weekly change 0.2; South African semi - carbonate 34.2, daily change 0, weekly change -0.1; Gabon lump ore 42, daily change 0, weekly change 1.3 [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Materials: In Shaanxi priced at 820, daily change 0, weekly change 0; in Ningxia 920, daily change 0, weekly change 0; in Inner Mongolia 810, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On December 1, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5466, up 1.41%, with open interest decreasing by 3190 lots; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5738, up 2.17%, with open interest decreasing by 61,711 lots [5] - Silicon Iron: Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 1st. Supply continued to decline slightly as alloy plants continued maintenance. Demand may see a short - term increase in steel production due to improved steel profits, but overall steel apparent demand will decline seasonally in December, and the resumption of production is expected to be short - lived. Costs were generally stable. Overall, short - term costs provide support, the fundamentals have slightly improved, and it rebounds in the short term following the overall commodity sentiment, but the rebound height should not be over - expected [5] - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore spot prices were generally stable on the 1st, and manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, rising 20 - 50 yuan/ton in various regions. Supply also continued to decline. Demand may see a short - term increase in steel production due to improved steel profits, but steel apparent demand will seasonally weaken in the future, and the resumption of production is expected to be short - lived. Manganese ore port inventory increased slightly but remained at a low level compared to the same period, and the spot price was firm, which pushed up the cost. It rebounds in the short term due to cost factors, but future demand pressure remains, suppressing the rebound height [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term rebound driven by costs, but future demand pressure still exists, suppressing the rebound height [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 4: Important Information - Xinyu Iron and Steel set the silicon iron purchase price at 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 600 tons [7] - The third round and fifth batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Tianjin had serious problems in volatile organic compound control and vehicle inspections, with sub - standard air quality and many enterprises found to be illegally discharging pollutants. Tangshan, Hebei, was named for illegally launching steel projects and adding new production capacity, and there were obvious shortcomings in air pollution prevention and control. Many enterprises were found to be illegally discharging pollutants and failing to meet ultra - low emission transformation standards. The inspection team will continue the investigation and carry out subsequent work as required [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5444 yuan/ton, profit - 324 yuan/ton [16] - Ningxia: Production cost 5625 yuan/ton, profit - 525 yuan/ton [16] - Shaanxi: Production cost 5729 yuan/ton, profit - 649 yuan/ton [16] - Qinghai: Production cost 5783 yuan/ton, profit - 633 yuan/ton [16] - Gansu: Production cost 5831 yuan/ton, profit - 681 yuan/ton [16] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5800 yuan/ton, profit - 300 yuan/ton [17] - Ningxia: Production cost 5892 yuan/ton, profit - 412 yuan/ton [17] - Guangxi: Production cost 6288 yuan/ton, profit - 758 yuan/ton [17] - Guizhou: Production cost 6183 yuan/ton, profit - 683 yuan/ton [17]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, in a loss situation, production is gradually decreasing, but producer inventories remain high, with limited fundamental support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and market sentiment and new round of steel tender pricing should be monitored [6][7]. - For silicon - iron, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Although cost support is strong, the upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, start - up conditions, and electricity price settlement [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price - The prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have decreased in resonance, and are at the lowest levels in recent years. From November 5th to November 28th, 2025, the manganese - silicon futures price dropped from 5,776 yuan/ton to 5,612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84%; the silicon - iron futures price dropped from 5,560 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% [11][13]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have declined. For example, in manganese - silicon, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and other regions decreased by 160 - 70 yuan/ton from October 31st to November 28th, 2025; in silicon - iron, the prices in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other regions decreased by 100 - 70 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has weakened. For example, on November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the SM01 basis of manganese - silicon decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the SF01 basis of silicon - iron decreased by 14 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3.4 Near - far Spread - The 1 - 5 spreads of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have strengthened slightly. On November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the 1 - 5 spread of manganese - silicon increased by 14 yuan/ton, and that of silicon - iron increased by 4 yuan/ton [23][26]. 3.5 Double - silicon Spread - The spread between silicon - iron and manganese - silicon (silicon - iron - silicon - manganese) decreased by 10 yuan/ton from November 6th to November 28th, 2025 [27]. 3.6 Production Cost - The production cost of silicon - iron has changed significantly, and the production costs in most regions (except Inner Mongolia) have strengthened. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production cost of silicon - iron in Gansu increased by 146 yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai increased by 386 yuan/ton [29][30]. 3.7 Production Profit - The immediate production profit of manganese - silicon has weakened, the production profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia has strengthened month - on - month, but the loss in most production areas has intensified. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production profit of manganese - silicon in the northern region decreased by 175.02 yuan/ton [31][35]. 3.8 Manganese - silicon Supply - The weekly output of manganese - silicon has declined and returned to the median level in recent years. The operating rates of manganese - silicon producers in Ningxia and Yunnan have dropped significantly. For example, from October 31st to November 28th, 2025, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased from 207,725 tons to 194,775 tons [36][39]. 3.9 Manganese - silicon Demand - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon is still at a low level in recent years, and the decline in crude steel production is obvious. For example, in October 2025, the crude steel output was 7199.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% [44][46]. 3.10 Manganese - silicon Cost - The price of manganese ore has increased slightly. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of Gabon manganese ore increased by 2.2 yuan/dry - ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [51][52]. 3.11 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore has remained stable. The inventory of Australian ore has decreased after reaching a phased high, and the inventory of Gabon manganese ore has decreased fluctuantly [54][57]. 3.12 Manganese - silicon Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased month - on - month, continuously hitting a new high in recent years. The available days of manganese - silicon inventory have increased slightly year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15,500 tons [61][68]. 3.13 Manganese - silicon Option - The historical volatility of manganese - silicon options is at a low level. The put - call ratio of the open interest/volume of manganese - silicon options fluctuates greatly, and the current ratio is at the median [69][72]. 3.14 Silicon - iron Supply - The weekly output of silicon - iron has continued to decline. In October 2025, the national silicon - iron output was 505,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons [75][83]. 3.15 Silicon - iron Demand - The demand for silicon - iron from steel mills is still at a low level. The output of magnesium ingots in October 2025 increased month - on - month, reaching a new high in recent years. The import volume of silicon - iron increased by 4.86% month - on - month in October 2025, and the export volume decreased by 36.14% [86][96]. 3.16 Silicon - iron Cost - The price of small - sized semi - coke has increased month - on - month. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi increased by 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% [97][99]. 3.17 Silicon - iron Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon - iron has decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute value is still high. The available days of silicon - iron inventory have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 9,530 tons [101][108]. 3.18 Silicon - iron Option - The put - call ratio of the open interest of silicon - iron options has decreased fluctuantly [111].

陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-01 黑色建材组 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 上周五铁矿石主力合约（I2601）收至 794.00 元/吨，涨跌幅-0.69 %（-5.50），持仓变化-23368 手，变 化至 39.10 万手。铁矿石加权持仓量 92.01 万手。现货青岛港 PB 粉 794 元/湿吨，折盘面基差 49.54 元 /吨，基差率 5.87%。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量环比下降。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均有减量。主流矿山方面， 四大矿山均不同程度环比下行。非主流国家发运量增加至年内高位，近端到港量环比上行。需求方面，最 新一期钢联口径日均铁水产量 234.68 万吨，环比下降 1.6 万吨。受到需求走弱及利润下滑共同影响，检修 高炉数明显增多， ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3110 | 17 | 热卷01 | 3302 | d | | 螺纹05 | 3117 | 12 | 热卷05 | 3288 | 7 | | 螺纹10 | 3154 | 10 | 热卷10 | 3290 | 8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2980 | 10 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3150 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3220 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3250 | 1 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3290 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3290 | 20 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3320 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3490 | 20 | 热卷： 广州 | 3320 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3230 | 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3310 | -20 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On December 1, 2025, the prices of different grades of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in various regions and different contract prices on the market are presented, including daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block is 5100, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30; the latest price of the main contract is 5390, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 82 [2]. - Multiple historical price trend charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, covering different regions, varieties, and time periods from 2021 - 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Charts show the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly data, and the production of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][6] Demand - Demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese by HeSteel Group are presented [4][6][7] Inventory - Inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in different regions, the inventory of silicon - manganese in 63 sample enterprises in China, and the inventory average available days in different regions [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions for ferroalloys, the market price of blue - carbon small materials in Shaanxi, and profit - related data such as the production profit of blue - carbon in China, the production cost and profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [5][7]

在"双碳"目标引领下，铁合金行业正经历从高耗能向绿色低碳发展的根本性转变。 为更好发挥期货力量在助推铁合金产业绿色发展中的作用，11月27日，郑商所举行铁合金期货服务产业 绿色发展座谈会，来自中国铁合金工业协会、铁合金产业生产企业、贸易商、期货公司及风险管理子公 司、交割仓库、质检机构等有关单位的代表共聚一堂，围绕铁合金产业政策、行业绿色发展、铁合金期 货运用、"绿色助企"专项试点等内容展开交流研讨，为铁合金行业高质量发展提供行业智慧，为共同书 写绿色金融大文章贡献期货力量。 绿色转型迫在眉睫 赋能铁合金产业低碳发展 据期货日报记者了解，铁合金行业是钢铁工业发展不可或缺的重要组成部分，经过七十余年的发展壮 大，中国已建立起世界上产能和产量最大、品种齐全、绝大部分技术经济指标位居世界先进行列的铁合 金工业体系，为中国钢铁工业发展提供了强有力的支撑。我国已成为名副其实的世界第一铁合金生产、 消费大国。 2014年8月，锰硅、硅铁期货上市交易。经过郑商所的持续培育和发展，铁合金期货摆脱成交低迷的局 面，逐步进入规则制度相对完善、市场规模能够满足产业风险管理需求、由追求量的发展向质的提升转 变的新发展阶段。 2020 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格受原料板块情绪影响，价格走势震荡偏弱，锰硅底部支撑较为明显。当前锰硅基本面矛盾继续累积，硅铁成本端存松动迹 象，或使得合金价格走弱，仍需持续跟踪合金端的供应变动。 ◼ 宏观：国内：10月CPI同比转正，环比强于季节规律，PPI同比降幅连续3个月收窄；海外：美联储最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（褐 皮书）发布，经济活动总体变化不大，消费者支出进一步下降。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量环比微降，对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前合金基本面矛盾继续累积，需注意炉料负反馈节奏的变动。 ◼ 本周硅铁端，市场情绪偏弱，成本存松动预期，北方主产区供应端再度收缩幅度有限；锰硅端，供应环比收缩，宁夏部分工厂减产，但 锰矿需求维持，锰矿价格受货权影响震荡偏强，成本端表现坚挺，北方地区仍存近两月新开炉预期，工厂库存突破高位，但近期期货库 存流动性较强，需持续跟踪北方地区投产计划是否有变动，警惕矿端的发运变动及盘面价格对港口矿报价的影响。 原料端情绪降温，合金低位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon ferro markets showed a downward trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand, declining cost support, and weak downstream demand. In 2026, with loose silicon manganese capacity and no significant increase in downstream consumption, its price is expected to be suppressed. For silicon ferro, although supply - demand has a growth trend, the relatively sufficient capacity will lead to intense competition, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Iron Alloy Market Review - Silicon manganese: In 2025, the price center of silicon manganese gradually moved down. There were price fluctuations due to factors such as manganese ore supply disturbances, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment [16]. - Silicon ferro: In 2025, the price of silicon ferro was affected by black - sector market trends, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment, showing an overall downward trend with fluctuations [17]. 2. Silicon Manganese: Loose Supply - Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas 2.1 Manganese Ore Imports Increase, but Port Manganese Ore Remains at a Low Level - In 2025, from January to October, the total manganese ore imports were 2687000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 235000 tons. The imports from Australia increased by 62000 tons compared with the same period in 2024. However, due to high port clearance volume, the port manganese ore inventory was at a low level for a long time [22]. 2.2 Long - term Losses in Production Areas, Relatively Restrained Silicon Manganese Output - From January to November 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese was at a low level, and by the end of November, it dropped below 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of silicon manganese alloy was 8.434 million tons, with a slight decline [6][56]. 2.3 Good Profits of Downstream Enterprises, Resilient Demand for Silicon Manganese - In 2025, the steel industry showed a positive trend. From January to October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained above 50% for a long time. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan, much higher than the same period last year. The demand for silicon manganese in major steel products remained resilient [61][63]. 2.4 High Inventory of Alloy Enterprises Suppresses Price Increase - By the end of November, the inventory of sample silicon manganese enterprises reached 368000 tons, at a high level in the same period. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory to some extent, the high inventory of alloy enterprises still put pressure on the price [71]. 3. Silicon Ferro: Output Increases Year - on - Year, Cost Center Moves Down 3.1 Silicon Ferro Price Fluctuates at a Low Level, Alloy Enterprises Suffer Long - term Losses - Affected by loose supply - demand, the silicon ferro price was suppressed. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices, and further rose in July due to "anti - involution" sentiment, but then fluctuated downward [10]. 3.2 Resilient Downstream Demand, Slight Increase in Output - From January to October 2025, the total output of silicon ferro was 4.624 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. The demand for downstream products such as metal magnesium and stainless steel was resilient [87]. 3.3 Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, Some Inventory Replenishment by Downstream Silicon Ferro Enterprises - By the end of November, the consumption of silicon ferro in major steel products increased slightly year - on - year. The output of stainless steel crude steel increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the consumption of silicon ferro also increased. The output of metal magnesium remained stable. By the end of October, the available days of silicon ferro inventory in steel mills were 15.67 days, higher than the same period in 2024 but still at a low level in the past five years [91][99]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - It is estimated that in 2026, overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 2.0%, and production will increase by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1%, and production will increase by 1.4%. - Silicon manganese: The output is expected to decrease by 0.14%, domestic consumption will decrease by 0.28% (excluding state reserves), and exports will remain at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. - Silicon ferro: The output is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year, domestic consumption will increase by 1.7%, and exports will decrease by 4.5%. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [103][106][108].

研究所 期待成本支撑 观望为宜 ----国信期货铁合金周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 锰硅产业链概况 3 硅铁产业链概况 4 总结及后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 行情回顾·要闻概览 研究所 1、中共中央政治局11月28日召开会议，审议《关于二十届中央巡视省（自治区、直辖市）情况的综合报告》。中共中央总书记习近平 主持会议。 2、11月24日，国家发改委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治 理企业价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。 3、国家统计局发布数据，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。其中，钢铁业利润总和 1053.2亿元，同比由亏转盈。 4、MYSTELL数据，本周，五大钢材品种供应855.71万吨，周环比增加5.8万吨，增幅0.7%；总库存1400.81万吨，周环比降32.29万 吨，降幅2.25%；周消费量为888万吨，降0.7%；其中建材消费环比降0.3%，板材消费环比增2.3%。 数据来源：WIND、My ...

Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The current macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened after a long - term correction. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but it is difficult for the price to fall significantly further unless there are macro - risk events or a collapse in coal prices. It is also necessary to pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore sector [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level. Manganese silicon's calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia at - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi at - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly output of manganese silicon is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level; production profit continues to be in the red; output continues to decline; rebar output remains low while pig iron output remains high; inventory is still at a relatively high level; the tender volume of HeSteel Group has decreased, and the tender price has stabilized month - on - month. The manganese silicon futures price showed weak performance last week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia's is - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi's is - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 2687.38 tons, a cumulative increase of 234.58 tons or 9.56% year - on - year. As of November 21, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 429.6 tons, up 3.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore is 58.1 tons, up 4.8 tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore is 100.9 tons, up 8.3 tons week - on - week [30][33][36]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 1.23 tons or 0.15% lower than the same period last year [44]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and start - up rate data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in November 2025 is 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 3700 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 12.17 tons, up 0.03 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 712 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate is 35.06%, down 2.6 pct month - on - month, continuing to decline [58][61][62]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's data is 36.8 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In November, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.84 days, up 0.14 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory have rebounded slightly month - on - month but are still at a relatively low level in the same period [76]. 3.6. Graphical Trend Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly at the lower - edge support of the range, with a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. At the daily - line level, the price showed a weak trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [79]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is of low cost - effectiveness [95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year [94]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level; production profit continues to be in the red; output decreases slightly; pig iron output remains high, and the demand for metallic magnesium has rebounded; inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume and price have decreased month - on - month. Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to decline slowly, with a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 1.36%. At the daily - line level, the price is oscillating downward along the downward channel since July this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to its performance at the key support level of 5328 yuan/ton [95]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics [100]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas: Inner Mongolia is 5774 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 5710 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is 5898 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of semi - coke small materials is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111][108]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 5.52 tons or 1.24% higher than the same period last year [116]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and proportion data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in November 2025 is 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month and up 1216 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 7.12 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year [125]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the price of metallic magnesium in Fugu area is 16050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the calculated export profit of ferrosilicon is - 13 yuan/ton, continuing to decline week - on - week and at a low level in the same period. From January to October 2025, the total overseas crude steel output is 7.13 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.01% year - on - year [128][131][132]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week