Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on July 22, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5280 and 5300 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and weekly changes of 80 and 100 [2]. - The latest price of Qinghai 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5300, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 100 [2]. - The latest price of Shaanxi 72 silicon ferroalloy was 5230, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 80; the price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650, with no daily change and a weekly change of 50 [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon ferroalloy qualified block was 5600, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Tianjin 72 for traders was 5600, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 70 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy were 1005 and 1055 respectively, with no daily change and a weekly change of -5 [2]. - For silicon manganese on July 22, 2025, the ex - factory prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5680, 5680, 5700, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with daily changes of 50, 50, 30, 30, 30 and weekly changes of 80, 130, 50, 50, 50 [2]. - The price of Guangxi 6014 silicon manganese was 5100, with no daily or weekly change; the prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 for traders were 5680 and 5880 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and 90 and weekly changes of 130 and 130 [2]. Supply - Information on the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China is provided, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production and capacity utilization of silicon manganese enterprises in China are also presented, such as weekly production and enterprise - level capacity utilization [7]. Demand - Data on the demand for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China are provided, including the demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][7][8]. - Information on the production of related downstream products such as crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel is also included, which reflects the demand for ferroalloys [4]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis are provided, as well as the daily data of CZCE silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6]. - For silicon manganese, the daily data of CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis are presented [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, data on electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market price and production profit of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are provided [6]. - For silicon manganese, the cost - related data such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke and the price of manganese ore, and the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region are presented [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].

| | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5230 | 30 | 30 | 5490 | 主力合约 | 5508 | 26 | 48 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 0 | 50 | 5550 | 01合约 | 5566 | 20 | 36 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5250 | 50 | 50 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5626 | 28 | 38 | | | 陕西#72 | 5180 | 30 | 30 | 5480 | 09合约 | 5508 | 26 | 48 | | | 陕西#75 | 5650 | 0 | 50 | | 主力月基差 | -18 | 4 | -18 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5600 | ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：现货需求偏紧，盘面带动成本上移 ◼ 总体来看，双硅供需格局扩张，合金市场仍呈现"情绪驱动冲高，需求支撑仍存"的特征，双硅钢招定价均环比放量上涨，但仍避免过度追涨，生产商 逢高点价出货格局已定，需关注主力合约交割期的仓单注册情况，同时成材供给与钢厂利润同处高位的持续性仍存疑，保持对港口矿端报价及铁水产量 的高频跟踪，等待市场情绪的缓冲与钢厂的实际减停产信号。 双硅上涨情绪不减，价格走势震荡偏强 ◼ 本周硅铁2509合约走势偏强震荡，收于5,508元/吨，周环比上涨48元/吨，成交792,287 手，持仓183,514 手，持仓环比减少183,514 手。 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | 硅 | 铁 | | | | | 锰 硅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly data of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys on July 18, 2025, including daily average output, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory, and compares them with the data on July 11, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 26,120 tons/day, an increase of 80 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 123,381 tons, a decrease of 1,547 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 216,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. Silicon Iron - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 14,285 tons/day, an increase of 175 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 20,013.7 tons, a decrease of 153.6 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 63,540 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel procurement sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, and both are in a wide - range oscillation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5466 and 5482 respectively, with volume of 5,010 and 122,756, and open interest of 11,364 and 193,107. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5792 and 5794 respectively, with volume of 1,553 and 146,872, and open interest of 12,184 and 353,847 [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, Mn44 block manganese ore is 39.0 yuan/ton - degree, and small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 216 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 194 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 2 yuan/ton. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 326 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 312 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 17, prices of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions range from 5050 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton. FOB prices of 72 are 1000 - 1020 dollars/ton, and 75 are 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern price of 6517 silicomanganese is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern price is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Jiangsu set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Steel mills in Zhejiang, Henan, and Shengli (Qingyuan) set silicomanganese procurement prices at 5770, 5735, and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter up 80 yuan/ton [2][3] - **Steel Production Data**: In early July, the daily average output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 209.7 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. The daily average output of steel products was 198.8 million tons, an 11.9% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 0.4% year - on - year increase [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found Summary by Catalog Price - On July 18, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block was 5200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5150 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon - iron qualified block was 5600 yuan, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (trader price) was 5470 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (export price in US dollars) was 1005 dollars, with a weekly decrease of 5 dollars; the latest price of Tianjin 75 (export price in US dollars) was 1055 dollars, with a weekly decrease of 5 dollars [2]. - For silicon - manganese, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, with no change [2]. - The latest price of Ningxia 6517 (trader price) was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 (trader price) was 5770 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan [2]. Supply - The report shows long - term trends of production - related data such as the monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China, the weekly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (with a capacity share of 95%), and the monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - It also presents the long - term trends of the weekly production of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [6]. Demand - The report provides long - term trends of demand - related data such as the estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel in China, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the monthly demand for silicon - manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data), and the monthly export volume of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - The report shows long - term trends of inventory - related data such as the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China, the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the daily total number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast of silicon - iron, and the daily inventory average available days of silicon - iron in East China, South China, and the North from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - It also presents the long - term trends of inventory - related data for silicon - manganese, including the daily total number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast of silicon - manganese, the daily inventory average available days of silicon - manganese in China, and the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - The report shows long - term trends of cost - profit - related data such as the electricity prices for ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the mainstream market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi, the production profit of semi - coke in China, the market price of 98% silica in the northwest region of China, the market price of 70% iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang, the production cost of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia converted to the main contract on the futures market, the spot profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia, and the export profit of 75% silicon - iron from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - It also presents the long - term trends of cost - profit - related data for silicon - manganese, including the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit of silicon - manganese in Guangxi converted to the main contract on the futures market, and the profit of silicon - manganese in Ningxia converted to the futures market from 2021 to 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On July 17, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block was 5200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 50. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1005 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 17, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 80 [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly output data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the weekly output data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) is also shown. The monthly capacity utilization rate data of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is provided [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly output data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the monthly procurement price and quantity data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese 6517 from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly production forecast data of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the daily price data of metal magnesium in Fugu, the export price data of metal magnesium in Tianjin Port, the monthly production data of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the monthly procurement volume and price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for FeSi75 - B silicon iron from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly demand data of silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025, the monthly production forecast data of crude steel in China, and the monthly export volume data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025, the daily total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast data of silicon iron, and the daily inventory average available days data of silicon iron in East China, South China, North China, and China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily total effective forecast data of silicon manganese, the daily warehouse receipt + effective inventory data of silicon manganese, the daily single - side trading position data of silicon manganese on CZCE, the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly inventory average available days data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The daily electricity price data of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, the daily market mainstream price data of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the weekly start - up rate data of semi - coke in China, the daily production profit data of semi - coke in China, the daily market price data of 98% silica in Northwest China, the daily market price data of 70% iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang, the production cost data of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, and the profit data of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia converted to the main contract and spot from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North China, and South China (according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025, the profit data of silicon manganese in Guangxi and Ningxia converted to the main contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and oscillating trend. The market's expectation of "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" has failed. The static fundamental contradictions are not obvious at present, and the market still needs to pay attention to further policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July. At the same time, it is necessary to track the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - The short - term trend of iron ore prices is strong with oscillations, and attention should be paid to risk control after increased fluctuations. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in market sentiment and the macro - realization nodes [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in speculation and pay attention to price fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [14][15]. - The short - term price of glass is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term. The short - term price of soda ash rebounds due to market sentiment, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction still exists in the medium term, and the trend is expected to be weak [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 96,689 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract position was 2.137057 million lots, a decrease of 16,795 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 62,501 tons, a decrease of 2086 tons. The main contract position was 1.549973 million lots, a decrease of 16,803 lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products oscillated weakly. The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. The inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a low level in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 773.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.78% (+6.00), and the position increased by 21,689 lots to 690,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.1402 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 758 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.95% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable in the latest period. Australia's shipment continued to decline due to port maintenance, Brazil's shipment increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3981 million tons. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory continued to increase [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated slightly lower, closing down 0.59% at 5750 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) oscillated lower in the morning and accelerated its decline in the afternoon, closing down 1.57% at 5408 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations. The fundamental situation points downward, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, weakening future demand, and downward adjustment space for the cost of manganese ore and electricity [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) oscillated lower, closing down 1.14% at 8685 yuan/ton. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 265 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The industrial silicon still faces problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe on Wednesday was 1164 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period. The short - term price is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1195 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.884 million tons, an increase of 20,600 tons (1.11%) from the previous week. The demand is still weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term, with large inventory pressure. The short - term price rebounds due to market sentiment, but the trend is expected to be weak in the medium term [18].