1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish, but the black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation phase and is sensitive to marginal news. Traders need to be vigilant against rumor disturbances and strengthen information screening. In the short term, the macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and its impact on the steel industry's supply - demand pattern [3]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks and high volatility from previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand situation is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and the market should pay attention to terminal demand feedback and trading liquidity [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.442%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7414 million lots, up 178,435 lots. The spot rebar price in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (2.114%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 103,995 tons, down 593 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.3779 million lots, up 103,802 lots. The spot hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy View - The price of finished products has risen significantly driven by the strong raw material prices. The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coils has been marginally alleviated, while the rebar inventory continues to decline. The winter storage participation is still cautious, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation and is sensitive to news [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 828.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.37% (+27.00), and the open interest increased by 25,713 lots to 666,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 999,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.42% [4]. Strategy View - The price of iron ore continued to rise. The overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals increased. The daily hot - metal output rebounded slightly, and the steel mills' profitability improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory was still at a low level in the same period of the past five years, with some replenishment demand [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 7, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) rose 1.39% to close at 6000 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rose 1.45% to close at 5860 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy View - The market's bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.90% (+80). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 18,796 lots to 379,966 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% (- 1065). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 8838 lots to 116,672 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.5 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 4800 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but its own supply - demand is weak, and inventory accumulation may continue. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply - demand is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and trading liquidity [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1148 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 5.13% (+56). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (- 3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 566 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 633 lots [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1271 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 6.81% (+81). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1231 yuan, up 81 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (- 3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light soda ash, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 7939 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,712 lots [20]. Strategy View - Glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF Main Contract: Closing price at 5860, up 84 (1.45%) daily and 184 weekly. Volume was 329,099, up 1,863 daily, and open interest was 257,498, down 11,933 daily [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price at 6000, up 82 (1.39%) daily and 138 weekly. Volume was 317,087, up 42,537 daily, and open interest was 284,324, up 14,767 daily [3] Spot Market - Ferrosilicon (72% FeSi): Spot prices in different regions showed increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton in some areas. For example, Inner Mongolia was at 5450, up 90 daily and 50 weekly [3] - Silicomanganese (6517): Spot prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton overall. Inner Mongolia was at 5650, up 20 daily and unchanged weekly [3] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon Basis: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract was -410, up 6 daily and down 134 weekly [3] - Silicomanganese Basis: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract was -350, down 62 daily and 138 weekly [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was at 41.8, unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was at 35.5, up 0.3 daily and 0.5 weekly [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in different regions remained stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the expectation of improving supply - demand and cost support, prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [5][6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Key Information - Brazil's exports of ferrosilicon with silicon content > 55% in November 2025 were 14,022.8 tons, up 64.95% month - on - month and down 5.87% year - on - year [7] - South Africa's only remaining manganese smelter, Transalloys, warned of possible large - scale layoffs due to high electricity costs [7] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts include ferroalloy main contract trends, SF - SM spreads, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [10][11][12]

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/1/7 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,000.00 | +82.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,860.00 | +84.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 620,191.00 | +59937.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 390,166.00 | -5013.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -81, ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.225%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手，环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨（0.461%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry continues to reduce production and inventory. Rebar maintains a large supply - demand gap and good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand and weak demand in 2026 limit price upward elasticity, but production cuts support steel prices. Raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are expected to drive steel prices to fluctuate upward within a range (rebar 3000 - 3200, hot - rolled coil 3150 - 3350) [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will transition from loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. High inventory suppresses prices, while low - inventory restocking expectations support prices. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with short - term prices fluctuating strongly in the range of 770 - 840 [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the spot market is weak, with increased inventory and weak downstream demand. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts, there is still a price - cut expectation. Both suggest short - selling at high prices and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance in the alloy market. The price is expected to fluctuate, with silicon iron in the range of 5500 - 6000 and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices show different trends. For example, rebar spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while steel production costs and profits changed. For example, Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained stable, while the output of five major steel products increased by 2.3% (815.2 tons), rebar output increased by 2.1% (188.2 tons), and hot - rolled coil output increased by 3.7% (304.5 tons) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% (1232.2 tons), rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% (422.0 tons), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.7% (371.0 tons) [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 11.3% (9.7 tons), the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.9% (841.0 tons), rebar apparent demand decreased by 1.1% (200.4 tons), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.2% (310.8 tons) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and basis showed different changes. For example, the cost of Kafen warehouse receipts increased by 0.8% (870.8 yuan/ton), and the 05 - contract basis of Kafen increased by 3.8% (69.8 yuan/ton) [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 6.0% (2756.4 tons), the global shipment volume decreased by 12.6% (3213.7 tons), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% (11054.0 tons) [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% (227.4 tons), the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.2% (325.2 tons), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3% (15970.89 tons), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.0% (8946.5 tons), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% (20.0 days) [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - Coking coal and coke prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1511 yuan/ton), and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1230 yuan/ton) [6] Supply and Demand - Coking coal supply increased slightly after the New Year, but sales were poor and inventory accumulated. Coke production decreased due to pressure on coking profits. Demand for both was affected by steel mill production [6] Inventory Changes - Coking coal and coke inventories increased at various levels, including mines, coking plants, and steel mills [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Prices and Spreads - Silicon iron and silicon manganese prices showed different trends. For example, the silicon iron主力 contract increased by 2.74% (5776.0 yuan/ton), and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 Guangxi spot price decreased by 0.5% (5700.0 yuan/ton) [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese changed. For example, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicon iron increased by 0.3% (5815.3 yuan/ton), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia silicon iron decreased by 36.2 yuan [8] Supply - The output of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history [8] Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese was supported by the increase in pig iron output. For example, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44% (227.4 tons) [8] Inventory Changes - The inventories of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained high, and the inflection point had not appeared [8]

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | | 盘面 | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5270 | 0 | -30 | 5570 | 主力合约 | 5776 | 152 | 26 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5280 | 0 | -40 | 5630 | 01合约 | 5572 | 112 | 8 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5250 | 0 | -30 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5738 | 144 | 32 | | | 陕西#72 | 5250 | 0 | -20 | 5550 | 09合约 | 5800 | 126 | 30 | | | 陕西#75 | 5650 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -206 | -152 | -56 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏# ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. With supply contraction expectations and cost support, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [5]. - The trading strategies include a short - term volatile and bullish outlook for unilateral positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money put options for options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5776, with a daily change of 152 and a weekly change of 104. The trading volume was 327,236, and the open interest increased by 30,174. The closing price of the SM main contract was 5918, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of 78. The trading volume was 274,550, and the open interest increased by 83 [3]. - **Spot**: For ferrosilicon, the spot prices in most regions were stable, except for a 100 - yuan/ton increase in Tianjin. For silicomanganese, prices in some cities decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. The SF - SM spread was - 142, with a daily change of 108 and a weekly change of 26 [3]. - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port increased slightly, while the prices of semi - coke small materials in different regions remained stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral positions are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to improved supply - demand margins and cost - push factors. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6]. - **Important Information**: On the 6th, the quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed, and Kunsteel finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon, with an increase of 20 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous round [7]. Related Attachments - **Price Difference Charts**: Include ferroalloy main contract price trends, SF - SM spreads, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and basis charts [8][10][12][14]. - **Cost and Profit Charts**: Present the production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions [19][25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7][8] Core Views Steel - Yesterday, steel prices remained weak, with coking coal and coke on the raw material side being weak and iron ore being slightly strong. Steel continued to reduce production and destock. Rebar maintained a large supply - demand gap and good destocking, while hot - rolled coil destocking was still slow. Apparent demand declined seasonally, and demand was weak. The weak demand expectation in 2026 restricted the upward price elasticity, but current production cuts supported steel prices. The rebar price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil price in the range of 3150 - 3350. Pay attention to the support levels of rebar at 3000 and hot - rolled coil at 3150 [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract opened higher and then maintained a high - level shock. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse ended. Future focus is on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the pig iron output remained flat, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, but many were still under annual overhauls. The steel mill profitability improved, but overall it was the off - season for demand, with high finished product inventory and many overhauls, so the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. Iron ore inventory is at a high level in the same period, and it will continue to accumulate. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate strongly. Consider short - term long positions, with the price range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. After the 4th round of price cuts in the spot market, there is still an expectation of further cuts. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind those of coking coal, squeezing coking profits and reducing production. On the demand side, steel mills' losses increased, leading to more overhauls, a decline in pig iron output, and an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The coke supply - demand situation weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Coking Coal - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weak, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily coal mine output after the new year, but poor sales led to inventory accumulation. Imported coal at the port continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. On the demand side, steel mill losses and overhauls decreased slightly, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profits declined, and production decreased slightly. The market's demand for inventory replenishment weakened. All sectors' inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a halt in the decline of ferrosilicon production, with production cuts mainly in Shaanxi and Gansu, and a slight increase in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. In terms of steelmaking demand, pig iron output was basically flat, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Non - steel demand from metal magnesium had some support, but the export profit weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, and the production cut expectation has been priced in. The future demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and prices lack upward momentum. Pay attention to the policy changes and raw material prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] Ferromanganese - Yesterday, ferromanganese fluctuated. The supply side had a slight increase in production last week, and there is still room for short - term production growth. In terms of demand, pig iron output increased slightly, and steelmaking demand was stable. Steel mills had a strong price - pressing sentiment in tenders. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory remained high. The manganese ore price was stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased. Ferromanganese is in a state of slight over - supply but generally balanced. Manganese ore supports the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the key being the production cut amplitude and the end - of - year raw material replenishment by steel mills. Consider range - bound operations, with the range of 5500 - 5800 [8] Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and North China decreased by 20 and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton, and the slab price at 3730 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions had different changes, with most showing an increase of 3 yuan [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained at 226.5 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.4 tons to 815.2 tons, with rebar output increasing by 3.8 tons to 188.2 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 11.0 tons to 304.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 25.8 tons to 1232.2 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 422.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 371.0 tons [1] Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 8.7, a decline of 4.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.4 tons to 841.0 tons, the rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.2 tons to 202.7 tons, and the hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.7 tons to 310.8 tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders mostly increased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 22.0, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 to 17.5 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 tons to 2756.4 tons, the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 tons to 3213.7 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average dispatching volume increased by 1.6 tons to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 41.8 tons to 15970.89 tons, the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 days [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 56 and 45 respectively, with a decline of 3.7% and 2.6% respectively [7] Supply - The daily average output of full - sample coking plants and 247 - steel mill coking remained unchanged at 62.7 and 46.8 tons respectively [7] Demand - The 247 - steel mill pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 915.7 tons, with the full - sample coking plant inventory decreasing by 0.6 tons to 91.6 tons, the 247 - steel mill inventory increasing by 1.8 tons to 644.0 tons, and the port inventory increasing by 1.9 tons to 180.1 tons [7] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal price decreased by 16, a decline of 1.4%. The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 16 and 35 respectively, with a decline of 1.5% and 3.14% respectively [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The steel mill loss and overhaul decreased, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profit declined, and production decreased slightly [7] Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 13.6 tons to 148.5 tons, the full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 12.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, and the 247 - steel mill coking coal inventory decreased by 4.5 tons to 802.3 tons [7] Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main ferrosilicon contract decreased by 48 to 5624, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions mostly decreased [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1, and the production profit decreased by 6.7 [8] Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 0.0 tons to 9.9 tons, and the production enterprise's operating rate remained at 29.5% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferrosilicon demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 6.4 tons [8] Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main ferromanganese contract decreased by 46 to 5874, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions had different changes [8] Cost and Profit - The manganese ore price remained stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased [8] Supply - The ferromanganese production increased slightly last week, and the operating rate increased by 0.1% to 36.9% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.8 tons to 39.4 tons [8]

Report Title - The report is titled "Iron Alloy Morning Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are provided in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on January 6, 2026, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions were: 5270 yuan in Ningxia (down 30 yuan daily, up 20 yuan weekly), 5280 yuan in Inner Mongolia (down 40 yuan daily, up 10 yuan weekly), 5250 yuan in Qinghai (unchanged daily and weekly), and 5250 yuan in Shaanxi (down 20 yuan daily, up 30 yuan weekly). The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5650 yuan (unchanged daily and weekly). The export price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 1025 US dollars (up 5 US dollars daily and weekly), and that of 75 silicon iron was 1075 US dollars (up 5 US dollars daily and weekly) [2] - For silicon manganese, on January 6, 2026, the latest factory - ex prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions were: 5650 yuan in Inner Mongolia (unchanged daily, up 60 yuan weekly), 5570 yuan in Ningxia (unchanged daily, up 50 yuan weekly), 5730 yuan in Guangxi (down 20 yuan daily, up 30 yuan weekly), and 5700 yuan in Guizhou and Yunnan (unchanged daily, up 50 yuan weekly). The price of 6014 silicon manganese in Guangxi was 5050 yuan (unchanged daily and weekly) [2] Supply - The monthly production of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises from 2022 - 2026 is presented in the report, as well as the weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises (with a capacity ratio of 95%) during the same period. The monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [5] - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, along with the monthly procurement price and quantity of 6517 silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group during this period [7] Demand - The report shows the monthly estimated and corrected production of crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the monthly procurement quantity and price of FeSi75 - B silicon iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the monthly demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data) from 2022 - 2026 [5][8] Inventory - For silicon iron, the weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are provided, as well as the daily total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange during the same period. The monthly average available days of silicon iron inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the whole of China are also presented [6] - For silicon manganese, the daily total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange from 2022 - 2026 are shown. The weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026, the monthly average available days of silicon manganese inventory in China, and the monthly export quantity of silicon manganese in China are also provided [8] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the report presents the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026, the market mainstream price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit of silicon iron in Ningxia when converted to the main contract on the futures market and the spot profit, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron [6] - For silicon manganese, the report shows the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit of Guangxi's silicon manganese when converted to the main contract on the futures market, and the profit of Ningxia's silicon manganese when converted to the futures market from 2022 - 2026 [8]