Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the copper pricing logic shifted from "dominated by Chinese demand" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control", with the financial attribute of copper significantly enhanced. The copper price showed a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then fluctuate", and the fluctuation range increased significantly [3]. - The deepening of the Sino - US game reshaped the global copper resource flow, pricing mechanism, and trade pattern. The copper price center will be systematically raised due to the re - evaluation of strategic value, and the fluctuation will intensify due to the fierce game [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the copper market faces three key points: the path after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut and the speculation of a US economic recession; the variables in the Sino - US game, especially whether the Sino - US tariff negotiation in November will be postponed again; and the re - balance of global copper supply and demand and the inflection point of global copper visible inventory destocking [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold copper speculative long orders, set trailing stops, and be cautious about chasing high prices, mainly trying long on dips. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, as well as the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the First Three - Quarter Market - In early January, due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy on China and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai copper started to rebound from the bottom, breaking through the 76,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In February, the lower - than - expected copper inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and increased overseas mine - end disturbances pushed Shanghai copper to break through the 77,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper led to a rapid widening of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Shanghai copper broke through the 80,000 - yuan psychological barrier [6]. - In April, after the implementation of the global tariff war and the exemption of copper tariffs, there was a sharp reversal in expectations, causing copper prices to plummet. Subsequently, with the easing of Sino - US relations, copper prices oscillated and recovered [7]. - In June, due to the reignition of the Middle East conflict and the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, copper prices increased against the seasonal trend [7]. - In July and August, Trump's repeated tariff policies on copper led to significant fluctuations in copper prices. In September, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the supply shortage expectation of copper concentrates, copper prices reached new highs for the year [8]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Reciprocal Tariff Era and Global Economic Slowdown - In the US reciprocal tariff era, Trump's unpredictable policies disrupted market confidence in the US and global economies, leading to a surge in market risk - aversion sentiment. WTO predicted a decline in global goods trade volume, and IMF predicted a slowdown in global economic GDP growth [11]. - Global major economies' inflation situations were differentiated, and central banks' monetary policies shifted from tightening to easing. Geopolitical risks increased significantly, and military use of copper might increase due to the global arms race [14][19]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff (TACO) and Increased Policy Uncertainty - Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource", and his copper tariff policies had a profound impact on the global copper market. If the 25% copper import tariff policy were implemented, it would distort the global copper trade supply path [21][22]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper increased significantly, stimulating cross - market arbitrage. Although the tariff on refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, Trump's tariff policies accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased capital risk - aversion sentiment [23][33]. 2.3 US Employment Pressure and Attention to the Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October - US employment data was weak, and inflation showed signs of rising. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the market expected further interest rate cuts in October and December. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy on copper was greater than that of the domestic central bank's policy [36][42][46]. 2.4 Economic Cycle Reincarnation and Copper at the Eve of a Historic Demand Boom - Globally, the economy was at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle. Copper, as an important raw material, was on the verge of a historic demand boom [47]. - Domestically, although there were signs of economic recovery, there were still drag factors such as the real - estate slump. Copper was sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic and foreign monetary policies [50]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Grasberg Mine Shutdown in Indonesia Aggravates the Copper Ore Supply - Demand Gap - Global copper ore supply faced challenges such as long - term insufficient capital expenditure, falling ore grades, and increased mining difficulties. The shutdown of major mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and political protests at some mines led to a reduction in global copper ore supply [52][55]. 3.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees and Industry Calls for Anti - Involution - Global copper smelting capacity utilization remained high, but copper concentrate supply was short. Smelter processing fees were deeply inverted, and the industry called for anti - involution. The government issued relevant policies to support the development of the copper industry [59][60][64]. 3.3 High Refined Copper Output and Continued Pressure on Imports - In 2025, global smelting capacity was released at a high level, and domestic refined copper output reached a record high. However, due to factors such as high premiums of US and LME copper and the closure of the import window, domestic refined copper imports were weak, and exports increased [67]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory and Tight Non - US Inventory - Global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, mainly concentrated in US COMEX warehouses, while non - US inventory was tight. High copper prices had an inhibitory effect on demand, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory inflection point [72][77]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Electricity Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, led to a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn stimulated copper demand. China's power investment maintained resilience, and overseas power markets were also booming [78][79][80]. 4.2 Real Estate in a Difficult Bottom - Grinding Phase and Low Market Confidence - The real - estate market was in a downturn, with falling prices, weak sales, and a large inventory of unsold properties. This had a negative impact on overall copper demand [86][88]. 4.3 The Impact of the Trade - in Policy and the Withdrawal of National Subsidies on the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry's demand for copper maintained resilience, but with the withdrawal of national subsidies and reduced overseas replenishment demand, the industry's performance was expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [91][92]. 4.4 High - Growth of New Energy Vehicles and Booming Green Copper Demand - New energy vehicles had a high copper consumption rate, and global new energy vehicle copper consumption was expected to increase significantly in 2025, becoming an important incremental factor in copper demand [94][95]. 4.5 The Return of Speculative Forces and the Repetition of the 2024 Copper Price Rally - Speculative forces in the copper market became active again, and overseas speculative funds' actions had an impact on copper prices. China needed to enhance its position as a copper pricing center [98][104]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2025 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Overall, the supply of overseas copper concentrates was tight, while domestic smelting capacity was operating at a high level. The supply - demand of refined copper shifted from a tight balance to a slight shortage, both domestically and globally [105].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, copper prices are mainly oscillating weakly due to the enhanced market expectation of an economic downturn caused by Sino - US trade conflicts, although the fundamentals still support copper prices in the medium - term as domestic demand expectations during the "Golden September and Silver October" period are rising while domestic production is expected to decline slightly [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose about 5% compared to before the holiday, driven by macro factors such as a 32,000 - person drop in ADP employment data, which strengthened the market's expectation of two Fed rate cuts within the year, and supply - side factors like the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine and the fermentation of copper mine disruptions. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 4% on the first trading day after the holiday but weakened slightly on the 10th, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. However, on the Friday night session, copper prices dropped significantly due to Trump's mention of imposing a 100% tariff on China, and are currently at the level of 83,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The Grasberg mine's output in Q4 2025 is nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original guidance, and its 2026 output may drop about 35% from the original plan. Codelco in Chile had a significant year - on - year decline in August output, BHP's copper mine production disruptions increased, and Teck Resources lowered the production target of its large - scale mines. China's refined copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease, and is expected to decline 3.43% month - on - month in October. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to strictly control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and there may be a global copper mine supply gap in Q4 [4]. - Demand: After the holiday, the State Grid released some orders, and the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to further improve the downstream operating level, but high copper prices have a certain impact on market activity [4]. - Inventory: Global inventories have started to rise slightly. SMM expects an increase in imported and domestic copper supplies, and high copper prices will suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, so inventories are expected to increase this week [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10th, the US announced a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software, which intensified market concerns about the global economic outlook and led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [5].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 50, indicating a "neutral" stance [5][8] - Historical trends show that when sentiment is below or near 50, the market tends to receive support, while above 90, resistance is observed [8] Hot Themes Tracking Artificial Intelligence - Alibaba's CEO stated that large models are the next generation operating systems, with AI cloud being the next computing platform, potentially leading to only a few super cloud platforms globally [5] - Alibaba is investing 380 billion in AI infrastructure and plans to increase this investment [5] - Related stocks include Industrial Fulian (601138) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [5] Non-ferrous Metals - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has delayed reopening until mid-2026 due to landslides, raising concerns over copper supply and pushing international copper prices up [5] - Domestic copper smelting competition has led to low processing fees, prompting calls for self-discipline in production cuts, reinforcing supply contraction expectations [5] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [5] Energy Storage - The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion in direct investment [5] - Policies are expected to raise project IRR to over 8%, shifting investment from "mandatory storage" to "proactive profit" [5] - Overseas orders in the first half of 2025 surged 220% year-on-year to 160 GWh, with battery cell production already experiencing price hikes [5] - Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274) [5]

Group 1 - The stock price of Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. has experienced an abnormal fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of +20% over three consecutive trading days (September 30, October 9, and October 10, 2025) [2] - The company has confirmed that there are no corrections or supplements needed for previously disclosed information, and no significant undisclosed information has been found that could impact the stock price [3][4] - The company's production and operational conditions remain normal, with no significant changes in the internal or external business environment [3] Group 2 - The company is currently engaged in a share issuance to acquire assets and raise matching funds, with all related information disclosed in a timely manner [3] - The board of directors has confirmed that there are no undisclosed matters that should be reported according to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's listing rules [4] - The company emphasizes that it has not violated any fair disclosure regulations and has not engaged in any stock trading activities by major shareholders during the abnormal fluctuation period [5]

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年10月12日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：贸易风险显化，供应扰动增强，价格波动放大 强弱分析：偏弱，价格区间：80000-85000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 VIX指数快速回升，表明市场不确定性增加 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 2021-10 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 % 标准普尔500波动率指数(VIX) 铜精矿现货TC弱势，冶炼亏损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation aims to address disorderly price competition and maintain a sound market price order, marking a shift in approach compared to previous efforts in 2005 and 2007 [1][2][3] Group 1: Key Features of the Announcement - The new governance approach combines proactive guidance and comprehensive supervision, moving away from solely punitive measures to a full-chain regulation process that includes cost reference, reminders, and enforcement [1] - The introduction of "industry average cost" as a reference point is intended to guide industry associations in evaluating and publishing average costs, providing a benchmark for reasonable pricing and helping to identify abnormally low prices [2] Group 2: Implications for Industries - The announcement signals that the goal is not to eliminate price competition but to protect innovation and product quality, preventing the phenomenon of "bad money driving out good" and ultimately promoting high-quality industry development [3] - The government positions itself as a rule-maker and maintainer rather than a direct price intervener, using the "industry average cost" as an informational tool to guide enterprises in making autonomous decisions and returning to fair competition [3] - As companies withdraw from disorderly price wars, improved profitability is expected to allow for greater investment in research and innovation, leading to higher quality and better value products and services for consumers in the long run [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a cumulative deviation of +20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [1] Company Summary - Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced that there is no need to correct or supplement previously disclosed information, and there are no undisclosed significant events affecting stock prices [1] - The company's production and operations are reported to be normal, with no major changes in the internal operating environment [1] Market Conditions - The market prices of the company's main products, including cathode copper and gold, have seen substantial increases recently [1] - The processing fees for copper concentrate are currently operating at low levels [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - Supported by the fundamentals, the copper price will strengthen, and the support level of the main contract of Shanghai copper will rise to 82,000 [9][16]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 79,380 and 83,820, with total positions rising 9.7% to 533,000 lots. The spot premium of domestic 1 electrolytic copper dropped to a discount at the end of the month. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly, and bonded area inventories decreased by 0.21 million tons to 730,000 tons. LME copper traded between 9,844 and 10,485, with total positions up 12% to 300,000 lots. COMEX copper traded between 452.55 and 493.95, with total positions up 36% to 245,000 lots [11]. 1.2 Future Outlook - Fundamentally, the tight supply of raw materials will limit the growth of refinery production in the fourth quarter, while demand is expected to strengthen. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cuts are beneficial to the copper price. Overall, the copper price is expected to strengthen [9][15][16]. 2. Supply Side: Tight Raw Materials are Spreading to the Smelting End 2.1 Tight Supply - Demand in the Copper Concentrate Market - From January to July 2025, global copper mine supply increased by 536,000 tons to 13.485 million tons. Due to the accident at the Grasberg mine, the global copper mine increment in 2025 is expected to be adjusted down to 450,000 tons. The new project in the second half of 2025 is the second - phase of Julong Copper Mine, with a new capacity of 200,000 tons, but the capacity will be released in 2026. In September, the decline of imported copper concentrate TC slowed down. The demand for copper concentrate in China far exceeds the supply, and the supply - demand tension has intensified [17][18]. 2.2 Intensified Tightness of Cold Materials - In August, the import of anode copper decreased significantly, and the import of scrap copper was stable. The supply of cold materials is expected to remain tight in October, and the upside space for cold material processing fees is limited [20][22]. 2.3 Realization of Refinery Production - Cut Expectations - In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased significantly due to increased refinery maintenance and difficulties in purchasing anode copper. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in October and may further decrease in November due to maintenance plans and tight anode plate supply [25]. 3. Demand Side: Lackluster Peak Season for Copper Products, Resilient Terminal Demand 3.1 Lackluster Peak Season for Domestic Copper Products Production - From January to August, the domestic copper product output reached 16.6 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 10.7%. In September, the start - up rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the peak season was lackluster [28][29]. 3.2 Obvious Recovery in the Automobile Market Driven by National Consumption - Promotion Policies - In August, automobile production and sales increased by 8.7% and 10.1% month - on - month respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales maintained rapid growth, and the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year [32][33]. 3.3 Power Grid Investment Growth Offset the Decline in Power Source Investment - From January to August, the power grid investment was 379.576 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 14%. It is expected to further increase to address the imbalance between power source and power grid investment. The power source investment growth is expected to lag behind that of the power grid [35][36]. 3.4 Rebound in Household Appliance Output Growth, Continued Slowdown in Exports - From January to August 2025, the output of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 6%, 2%, and 8% year - on - year respectively, while the export growth slowed down. Global household appliance production and sales may face downward pressure in 2025 [40]. 3.5 The Downward Cycle of the Real Estate Market Continues - From January to August 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion growth rates were - 12.9%, - 19.5%, and - 17% respectively. The real estate market is expected to provide no support for copper demand this year [42][43].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 86, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a high level of investor optimism [5][9][20] Hot Themes Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence**: Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, positioning AI as the next generation operating system. Related stocks include Industrial Fulian (601138) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [5] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has delayed its reopening to mid-2026 due to a landslide, raising concerns over copper supply and driving up international copper prices. Domestic copper smelting competition is leading to low processing fees, prompting calls for self-discipline in production cuts. Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [5] - **Energy Storage**: The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment. Policies are expected to boost project IRR above 8%. Overseas orders surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh. Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] Capital Flow Analysis - **Net Inflow**: The top net inflow stocks include ZTE Corporation (000063) with 302.44 million yuan, Hikvision (002415) with 137.65 million yuan, and BYD (002594) with 86.33 million yuan [10] - **Financing Net Purchase**: The leading stocks in financing net purchases are ZTE Corporation (000063) with 144.86 million yuan and New Eslon (300502) with 132.99 million yuan [12] - **Net Outflow**: The stocks with the highest net outflow include Sungrow Power (300274) with -183.01 million yuan and New Eslon (300502) with -118.16 million yuan [13] Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing upward price movements due to supply concerns and competitive pressures within the domestic copper smelting sector [5] - The energy storage sector is poised for significant growth driven by government policies and increasing demand for capacity, with a notable increase in overseas orders [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].