Group 1 - The U.S. government announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, effective seven days after the announcement [1] - 40 countries or regions will face a 15% tariff, while 10 countries or regions will face tariffs of 19% or 20% [1] - Goods from countries not listed will incur an additional 10% tariff, while products from China are unaffected by this order [1] Group 2 - The tariff measures have sparked widespread criticism from both domestic and international entities, with U.S. senators expressing concerns over economic uncertainty and inflation [2] - South Africa's trade minister highlighted that higher tariffs threaten key industries such as automotive and agriculture, prompting urgent protective measures [2] - The Swiss government expressed regret over the U.S. tariff policy, despite progress in bilateral negotiations [2]

特朗普政府加征关税举措在美国国内和海外引发广泛反对和质疑。美国多名民主党籍参议员7月31日举 行新闻发布会，抨击特朗普政府加征关税和对贸易协议夸大其词等做法。国会参议院少数党领袖舒默 说，美国企业需要确定性，但得到的是混乱和通胀，"特朗普的关税贸易战是对美国人民的一场贸易 战"。参议院金融委员会主席罗恩·怀登表示，关税的真正代价将在未来数月得到充分体现。 南非贸易、工业和竞争部长帕克斯·陶当天在一份声明中说，更高的关税对南非出口能力构成威胁，特 别是在汽车、农产品加工、钢铁、化工等关键行业。"我们正紧急并坚决地采取切实可行的干预措施来 保护就业，使南非在变化的全球格局中处于有利竞争地位。" 瑞士政府在社交媒体X上发文，对美方关税政策"深表遗憾"。贴文说，尽管双边谈判取得进展且瑞士方 面始终秉持建设性立场，但美方仍寻求对瑞士输美商品征收单边额外关税。 "对于世界其他地区来说，这是一次严重的需求冲击，"印度央行前行长、芝加哥大学布思商学院教授拉 古拉姆·拉詹1日告诉彭博电视台。"你会看到很多央行考虑降息，因为世界其他地区的经济在这些关税 影响下放缓。" 新华社消息，美国白宫7月31日晚发布公告称，美国总统特朗普当 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, effective seven days after the announcement [1] - 40 countries or regions will face a 15% tariff, while 10 countries or regions will be subject to tariffs of 19% or 20% [1] - Goods from countries not included in the 69 trade partners list will incur an additional 10% tariff, while products from China are unaffected by this order [1] Group 2 - The tariff measures have sparked widespread criticism both domestically and internationally, with U.S. senators expressing concerns over the impact on American businesses and inflation [2] - South Africa's trade minister highlighted that higher tariffs threaten key industries such as automotive and agriculture, prompting urgent protective measures [2] - The Swiss government expressed regret over the U.S. tariff policy, despite progress in bilateral negotiations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, short - term trading is recommended. This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 - contract closed at 9524 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is still in the "weather - dominated" stage. The recent weather in Canada is favorable, and the resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia adds long - term supply pressure. High - frequency data shows that palm oil production in Malaysia increased in July while exports declined, and palm oil stocks are expected to continue to accumulate. However, Indonesia's exports have increased significantly, and its inventory is at a low level. News from the biodiesel sectors in the US and Indonesia is positive for the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively abundant, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high. But the oil mill's operating rate has decreased, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has reduced [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely. The 09 - contract closed at 2675 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean's good rate is at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The new round of China - US economic and trade talks has no major breakthrough. In China, the operating rate of oil mills is relatively high, and soybean meal stocks continue to accumulate, suppressing the price of the meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory, and the government emphasizes the reduction of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of purchases in the fourth quarter supports the long - term market. For rapeseed meal itself, the arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is less, reducing supply pressure, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 09 - contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9524 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. Short - term trading is recommended. The weather in Canada is favorable for rapeseed growth, and the resumption of China - Australia trade adds supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption and high inventory pressure are countered by reduced production pressure and fewer third - quarter purchases [8][9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 - contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2675 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The US soybean situation is good, and in China, high oil - mill operating rates, expected pig - inventory decline, and substitution policies reduce demand, but fourth - quarter purchase uncertainty and seasonal demand support the market [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 189,113 lots, down 21,670 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely, with a total position of 419,679 lots, down 63,829 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures increased, and those of rapeseed meal futures decreased [24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 1,200 lots [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is + 66 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,600 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis is - 75 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is + 58 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is + 266 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.56, and the average spot price ratio is 3.688 [53]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 - contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,250 yuan/ton and has narrowed this week. The 09 - contract spread of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 614 yuan/ton and has widened this week. The 09 - contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread is 280 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import**: As of July 25, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in August, September, and October 2025 are 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Import and Pressing Profit**: As of July 31, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is + 475 yuan/ton [78]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 30th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills is 72,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate this week is 17.61% [82]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China is 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [90]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China is 116,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24% [98]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Inventory**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China is 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.55% [102]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [106]. - **Demand - Side Feed Production**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons [110]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of August 1, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.37%, a decrease of 1.95% from the previous week, and it is at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].

证券之星消息，8月1日农产品加工板块较上一交易日下跌0.71%，安德利领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3559.95，下跌0.37%。深证成指报收于10991.32，下跌0.17%。农产品加工板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300138 | 晨光生物 | 13.43 | 2.21% | 15.81万 | 2.13亿 | | 600962 | 国投中鲁 | 18.98 | 1.61% | 6.63万 | 1.25亿 | | 603182 | 喜华股份 | 14.31 | 1.35% | 1.92万 | 2726.61万 | | 603231 | 索宝蛋白 | 17.17 | 1.12% | 1.83万 | 3147.97万 | | 002481 | 双塔食品 | 5.35 | 0.75% | 7.36万 | 3925.01万 | | 300268 | *ST佳沃 | 10.26 | 0.69% | 1.55万 | 1592.77万 | | 001338 | 永顺泰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformation and upgrading of agricultural product consumption is timely, focusing on market demand and new consumption trends to enhance the richness and healthiness of food on people's tables [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Innovations - The dairy market is experiencing a surge in popularity, with products like milk tea and yogurt gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards diverse dairy offerings [1][2]. - In Shaanxi's Fuping County, goat milk has become a flagship product, with an annual processing capacity exceeding 100,000 tons and an annual output value of 2.2 billion yuan, showcasing the potential of niche dairy markets [2]. - Technological advancements in dairy products, such as the development of non-hydrogenated base milk, are addressing health concerns and meeting consumer demand for healthier options [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The success of agricultural products relies on matching high-quality supply with diverse consumer demand, with over 84,000 certified green, organic, and geographical indication products currently available in China [3]. - The rapid growth of rural e-commerce and the emergence of new farmers are enhancing the connection between agricultural products and urban markets, with rural online retail sales expected to grow by 6.4% and agricultural product online sales by 15.8% in 2024 [3][4]. - The need for improved sales channels and market competitiveness is emphasized, as well as the importance of addressing issues such as incomplete industrial chains and insufficient brand development [3]. Group 3: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - A recent implementation plan by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and ten other departments outlines 23 measures across nine areas to boost agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating distribution, and activating market demand [4]. - The plan aims to enhance deep processing of agricultural products, strengthen brand building, and create a shared information platform to reduce information asymmetry between production and consumption [4].

Core Insights - Indonesia's export of crude palm oil and refined palm oil reached 11 million tons in the first half of the year [1] Group 1 - The total export volume of crude palm oil and refined palm oil from Indonesia for the first six months is reported at 11 million tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest information on the oilseeds and oils market including US soybean export sales, soybean crushing volume, usage of soybean oil in biofuel production, palm oil export volumes from Malaysia, and trade agreements related to Indonesian palm oil [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - From July 11 - 18, US 2024/2025 market - year soybean export sales net increase was 34.92 million tons, up significantly from the previous week and 4% higher than the four - week average, with market expectation of 10 - 30 million tons. US 2025/2026 market - year soybean export sales net increase was 42.95 million tons, within the market expectation of 10 - 60 million tons. US soybean export shipments were 49.96 million tons, up 65% from the previous week and 63% from the four - week average [1] - Before the USDA monthly crushing report, analysts estimated that US soybean crushing volume in June would be 196.6 million bushels, a 3.5% decrease from May and the lowest since February but a 7.2% increase from June 2024 and the largest June crushing volume in history. The estimated daily average crushing volume was 6.554 million bushels, the slowest daily progress since last September. The estimated US soybean oil inventory as of June 30 was 1.863 billion pounds, down 0.7% from the end of May and 12.3% from June 2024 [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported that the usage of soybean oil in biofuel production in May increased to 1.025 billion pounds, up from 829 million pounds in April [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.7% decrease from June. AmSpec data showed a 9.6% decrease to 1,163,216 tons from June. AmSpec also revised Malaysia's July 1 - 25 palm oil exports to 914,924 tons [1] - An Indonesian minister said that the EU would give zero - tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian crude palm oil when the free - trade agreement is approved. If the exports exceed 1 million tons, a 3% tariff will be imposed. The EU and Indonesia are expected to sign the agreement in September and get approval from their legislative bodies next year. The EU will later set an export quota for Indonesian palm kernel oil based on the previous year's shipments [1] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association signed a three - year memorandum of understanding to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the palm oil industry, including technology exchange, R & D, sustainable development, policy coordination, food security, and market information sharing [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 25 - 31, 2025 are presented, showing price fluctuations during this period [2] Other Information - Information on precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and oil import profit are mentioned but no specific data is provided [1] - Information on oil basis, oilseeds and oils price spreads on the futures market, and protein meal basis are mentioned but no specific data is provided [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest price changes of various commodities, including chemical and agricultural products, and analyzes the market trends of different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option finance [4][13][14]. - It also covers macro - economic news, including policy changes, international trade policies, and economic data, which have an impact on the commodity and financial markets [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 31, 2025, prices of some chemical products like coking coal increased (9.326% increase), while others such as natural rubber decreased (-0.172% decrease) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: For agricultural products, the price of yellow soybean No.1 increased by 0.048%, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.815% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - **Regulatory and Policy News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China interviewed NVIDIA regarding the security risks of its H20 computing chips. New regulations such as the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong came into effect on August 1, 2025 [7][8]. - **International Trade News**: The US will resume collecting so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1, 2025, and is still in negotiation with multiple economies [8]. - **Economic Data**: The core PCE price index in the US rose 2.8% year - on - year in June, higher than the expected 2.7%. In 2024, China's "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [8][9]. 3.3 Main Commodity Market Analysis 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be in a narrow - range shock. It may be strongly shocked in the short - term but will not change the downward trend [13]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly shocked [13]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory, but attention should be paid to the supply pressure brought by the concentrated arrival of processed sugar in August. The international raw sugar lacks directional driving forces [13]. - **Corn**: The price of corn has broken through the lower edge of the previous shock range. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term, but beware of the rebound risk caused by policy support and weather speculation [13]. - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [15]. - **Eggs**: After the price correction, the possibility of a sharp decline in egg prices is not high. For the 08 contract in the delivery month, it is recommended to avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has fallen recently due to the lack of fundamental support and capital promotion, as well as the cautious market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the support level at 13,350 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Urea**: The supply of urea is in a state of phased reduction, and the demand is mixed. The futures price may continue to be weakly shocked in the short - term, but there is an improvement expectation for autumn fertilizers and export demand [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda has strong support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke are under short - term pressure and are running weakly [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to the US tariff policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision. The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, but the spot price is relatively firm. Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [17]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is affected by factors such as macro - sentiment cooling and raw material price decline, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is mainly affected by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate with a shock - range mentality [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions but beware of the support at 67,000 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Options**: On July 31, the A - share market declined, and the volatility of options increased. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [20].

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