Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a significant afternoon rally, with Shanjin International rising over 5% [2] - Other companies in the sector, including Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold, also saw increases in their stock prices [2]

港股黄金股集体跳涨，紫金、赤峰一天就涨了五六个百分点。 嗨翻了，金价干到4300美元了！ 别以为这只是市场一时冲动——这背后，是全球资金在用真金白银投票。 咱们普通人别光看热闹，背后藏着的，可能是未来几年最稳当的投资方向之一。 最近几天，国际金价又刷出新纪录——12月12日盘中一度站上4320美元/盎司，日内涨了近0.5%。 这个价格，已经逼近今年10月以来的最高点。 很多人以为金价涨是因为中东又紧张了、美国又要降息了，其实没那么简单。 周叔翻了下最新数据，发现真正推着金价往上走的，是三股力量：地缘冲突没停过、全球央行还在悄悄 买金、美联储政策风向变了。 特别是中国，截至11月底，官方黄金储备已经连续多个月增加，现在总量达到7412万盎司，比10月又多 了3万盎司。 金价飙到新高，不是偶然 更关键的是，这轮买金的主力变了。 以前大家觉得是各国央行在囤，但现在美国的ETF资金大举流入，普通投资者和机构也在加仓。 花旗甚至算了一笔账：如果全球家庭把资产中的黄金比例提高1.5%，就得吃掉未来18年全世界挖出来 的金子。 供需严重失衡，价格不涨才怪。 黄金股集体爆发，业绩撑得起股价 12月中旬，港股黄金板块全线飘红： ...

摘要今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎 司，日内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。 短线技术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试 上方阻力位。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎司，日 内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。短线技 术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试上方阻 力位。 【要闻速递】 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨晚非农数据利空，失业金数据却利多，黄金价格最终冲高回落，依然徘徊在大区间震荡的范围内。非 农数据未能助力黄金突破震荡格局，那么市场焦点可能将转向周四晚间的CPI数据。预计今日黄金大概 率继续维持震荡走势，投资者可在日内区间内采取高抛低吸的策略。 美国财政部长贝森特对经济前景表达了乐观态度，预测2025年美国GDP增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - Most analysts expect gold and silver prices to reach new record highs by the end of the year, but Avi Gilburt warns that this price increase is nearing its final phase [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gilburt suggests that the current rally in precious metals is due to a "reset" that occurred after years of declining investor interest following 2015 [1] - He believes that this is not the beginning of a new cycle but rather the end of a very long cycle [1] - The price of gold and silver may continue to rise in the coming months, but investors should prepare for a potential multi-year correction starting as early as next year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The recent increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, has raised questions about whether it will be sufficient for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates next year [2] - Analysts are awaiting the release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which could influence demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [2] Group 3: Market Performance - On Tuesday, gold and silver futures saw slight declines, reversing gains from earlier due to the delayed release of the higher-than-expected unemployment rate [2] - The settlement price for December gold futures was $4,304.50 per ounce, down 0.05%, ending a three-day streak of increases [2] - December silver futures settled at $62.70 per ounce, down 0.4%, but both metals remain at their third-highest settlement levels of the year [2]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, with a significant increase in the proportion of central banks cutting rates from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a transition from a tightening to an easing cycle [1] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential re-initiation of quantitative easing (QE), with the contraction rate of major central banks' balance sheets narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025 [2] - Historical data shows that during previous QE periods, commodity price indices, including energy and metals, experienced significant increases, with energy indices rising by 131.88% and metal price indices by 55.29% from 2020 to 2022 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly increasing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like gold [3] - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to a structural tightening in supply, with global gold consumption averaging around 4,616 tons annually and central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years [4] - Silver supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [6] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Platinum is anticipated to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining supply and slow recovery in demand [7] - The demand for platinum jewelry is expected to recover due to high gold prices, while industrial demand remains resilient despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [7] - The ongoing structural improvements in silver supply-demand dynamics and the increase in liquidity premiums are likely to support higher silver pricing [6]

大宗周期-有色金属行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 2026 年黄金价格预计将受益于美元信用走弱，美联储降息预期、鲍威 尔卸任后可能出现的政策不确定性，以及美国财政和政治问题，将共同 推动金价上涨，全球央行购金也将形成支撑。 铜市场方面，海外铜矿项目面临资源禀赋降低、政策约束强化等问题， 限制了产能释放。同时，AI 硬件和算力基础设施建设将显著拉动铜需求， 预计铜价仍将处于中枢上行趋势。 电解铝市场，国内产能接近天花板，海外高电价加剧了产能运行的不确 定性。尽管如此，新能源汽车需求的强劲增长以及国内外电解铝库存处 于历史低位，预示着电解铝价格弹性有望进一步放大。 锡市场供应端面临印尼打击非法采矿、缅甸复产缓慢以及刚果（金）战 乱等多重扰动，导致全球锡供应紧张。国内锡矿加工费已触及近五年低 位，AI 产业增长将带动锡焊料需求，预计价格中枢将开启长周期上行趋 势。 碳酸锂市场在 2026 年将延续强劲势头，国内云母矿供应波动风险依然 存在，海外锂资源扩张周期进入中后段。新能源汽车和储能需求的快速 增长将为碳酸锂提供支撑，储能有望成为新的增长极。 Q&A 展望 2026 年，有色金属板块的投资逻辑主要集中在三条 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for October and November showed a decline of 105,000 jobs in October and an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2] - The labor market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing labor market stability and inflation control, with the non-farm report not significantly impacting gold prices [2] - Gold prices are currently consolidating and have not approached the historical high of $4,380 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The market has likely absorbed the impact of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in Russian oil exports and a subsequent decline in oil prices [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels as of the week ending December 5, indicating weak demand and a sluggish market [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including U.S. efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggests that the oil market will continue to experience an oversupply and a downward trend [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a range of $4,275 to $4,350, with a focus on potential breakout points [3] - Oil prices are nearing an annual low of $55.10, with key support at $54.60 and resistance at $55.80 [6] - The Nasdaq index is in a high-level consolidation phase, with support at 24,900 and resistance at 25,250 [8] - Copper prices are fluctuating between $5.20 and $5.43, suggesting a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [8]

相关分析指出，展望后市，美国经济前景仍面临不确定性。劳动力市场降温趋势已现，但消费韧性及工 资增速放缓，给了美联储更多的观察空间，短期内再次降息的门槛仍然较高。机构普遍预期，2026年美 联储的宽松幅度可能维持在温和水平，除非未来数据出现失业率持续攀升或消费明显收缩。在利率预期 转向宽松、美元可能相对疲弱的背景下，黄金中长期趋势依然获得支撑，但需警惕数据后续修订以及突 发地缘事件可能引发的双向波动。 美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，优于市场预期的5万人左右；但10月数 据被大幅下修为减少10.5万人，显著低于初值。11月失业率升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。零售销 售方面，10月整体环比持平，低于预期；然而扣除汽车、汽油、建材和餐饮服务的"核心控制组"零售销 售环比强劲增长0.8%，远超预期的0.4%，显示消费者在核心领域的支出仍有韧性。 每日经济新闻 12月16日，金价早盘持续走低，随着非农就业数据发布，金价冲高后小幅回落，收复4300美元整数关 口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌1.19%，黄金 股E ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The November 2025 economic data shows that the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7% [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds increased by 1 to 4 basis points, while the overall credit bond issuance scale grew [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes seeing positive net financing [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced a rise in transaction volume, with most credit bond yields declining [8] Fund Research - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF surpassed 210 billion yuan, with notable performance in the communication and defense industries [11] - The average return of equity funds increased by 0.83%, with a positive return ratio of 57.63% [12] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 12.827 billion yuan, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs [13] Industry Research - The steel industry faces weakening demand as the off-season progresses, leading to downward pressure on steel prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable due to tightening supply forecasts for 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions [16] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to see stable profits due to strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by new energy vehicles [17] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a long-term bullish outlook due to central bank purchases [18] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from export controls and strategic importance, with a focus on companies with strong resource and processing capabilities [18]

此前灵宝黄金发布公告，于2025年12月10日，买方灵宝黄金国际有限公司(本公司的一间直接全资附属 公司)与卖方St Barbara Limited订立协议，据此，买方有条件同意认购及卖方有条件同意配售目标公司的 50%+1股股权，总代价为3.7亿澳元(按1澳元兑人民币4.6880元的概约汇率计算，相当于约人民币17.35亿 元)。 智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，12月16日，灵宝黄金(03330)股东将股票由中信里昂证券 转入香港上海汇丰银行，转仓市值6.42亿港元，占比3.17%。 ...