Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39% on July 1, with 20 industries experiencing gains, led by the comprehensive and pharmaceutical sectors, which increased by 2.60% and 1.80% respectively [2] - Conversely, the computer and retail sectors saw declines of 1.18% and 0.79% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 27.907 billion yuan, with 8 industries seeing net inflows [2] - The pharmaceutical sector led the net inflow with 2.422 billion yuan, followed by the banking sector with an inflow of 886 million yuan and a daily increase of 1.53% [2] Communication Industry Performance - The communication sector fell by 0.45%, with a net capital outflow of 1.623 billion yuan [3] - Out of 127 stocks in this sector, 31 rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 92 declined, with one hitting the lower limit [3] - The top net inflow stocks included Yongding Co. with 387 million yuan, followed by Chutian Long and ZTE Corporation with 160 million yuan and 93.3125 million yuan respectively [3] Top Gainers and Losers in Communication Sector - The top gainers in the communication sector included: - Yongding Co. (+7.05%, 22.42% turnover, 386.8616 million yuan net inflow) - Chutian Long (+4.08%, 25.09% turnover, 159.9422 million yuan net inflow) - ZTE Corporation (+0.46%, 1.77% turnover, 93.3125 million yuan net inflow) [4] - The top losers included: - Hengbao Co. (-3.97%, 37.28% turnover, -270.3572 million yuan net outflow) - Zhongguang Fang Lei (-7.88%, 34.59% turnover, -194.0401 million yuan net outflow) - Runze Technology (-3.84%, 4.91% turnover, -121.9459 million yuan net outflow) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The end of the conflict between Israel and Iran significantly boosted investor risk appetite, leading to substantial gains in the equity markets of A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks [9]. - The US may reach agreements with 10 major trading partners, and whether the China - US agreement is signed needs further observation [10]. - Focus on A - share structural opportunities such as banks and non - ferrous metals, and the possibility of short - term long opportunities for gold [11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Equity Markets - In the past week (20250623 - 20250629), US stocks soared, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 4.25%, 3.44%, and 3.82% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index rose 5.50%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.20% [2]. - Most A - share sectors rose, with the wind all - A index up 3.56%. The comprehensive finance sector led the gains, with a weekly increase of over 14%. Other sectors with weekly increases of over 5% included computer, comprehensive, national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals [3]. Bond Markets - In the past week, interest - rate bond prices slightly declined, and the yield curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.10%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.66 BP to 1.6462% [4]. - The capital price increased significantly, and the central bank made a net injection of 10672 billion yuan in open - market operations [5]. - The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume dropping from 8.32 trillion yuan on June 20, 2025, to 7.77 trillion yuan on June 27, 2025 [6]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the curve shifted downward overall. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 9 BP to 4.29% as of June 27, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange and Commodities - The US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index dropped 1.52%. Gold prices fell, with the London gold spot price down 2.86% to $3271.75 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold spot price down 1.81% to 763.3 yuan per gram [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of the digital services tax by Canada to promote trade negotiations with the US led to a full - scale increase in the three major US stock indices. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded for two consecutive months. Affected by pre - export rush, both supply and demand have improved, but it is still below the boom - bust line, and the economy is in the bottom - building stage. Benefiting from the simultaneous improvement of the domestic and overseas environments, the stock index is in the repair period after a short - term sharp rise [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Charts - In China, in June, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have been in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Overseas, Fed's Bostic still expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year and three times next year [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share three major indices fluctuated and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to close at 3444.43 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35%. In the industry, most sector indices rose, with national defense and military industry, media, communication, and electronics industries leading the gains. Only the banking, non - banking finance, and transportation industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly to 1.5 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.63% to 44094.77 points [1]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the basis trend was differentiated, and the discount of the near - month contracts of IC and IM deepened. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of June 30, the latest financing balance in the market reached 1,838.149 billion yuan, showing an increase of 10.689 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 23 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance [1][2] Industry Financing Balance Changes - The computer industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.787 billion yuan to a total of 141.711 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with significant increases include: - Defense and military industry: increased by 1.573 billion yuan to 66.163 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 1.220 billion yuan to 78.162 billion yuan - Non-bank financials: increased by 1.030 billion yuan to 156.049 billion yuan [1] - Eight industries reported a decrease in financing balance, with notable reductions in: - Media: decreased by 0.136 billion yuan to 41.066 billion yuan - Automotive: decreased by 0.100 billion yuan to 96.078 billion yuan - Pharmaceutical and biological: decreased by 0.093 billion yuan to 131.105 billion yuan [2] Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The defense and military industry had the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 2.43% [1] - Other industries with notable increases include: - Comprehensive: 1.85% - Non-ferrous metals: 1.59% - Communication: 1.49% [1] - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Beauty and personal care: decreased by 0.57% - Media: decreased by 0.33% - Real estate: decreased by 0.25% [2]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing sentiment, driven by the continuous release of domestic demand policies [2][3] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing a significant increase of 1.8 percentage points to 52.8% [3] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.7%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - The report explores the implementation of personal pension systems, including the introduction of index funds as investment options [5] - A total of 85 equity index funds have been included in the personal pension product catalog, with 66 being passive index funds [5] - The analysis of long-term investment in selected indices shows that longer investment periods yield more stable returns, with the dividend index outperforming other broad-based indices [6] Margin Financing and Securities Lending - As of June 25, 2025, the margin financing balance in the A-share market is reported at 18,236.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 370.86 billion yuan from the end of the previous year [8] - The report indicates a structural change in margin financing, with small-cap stocks seeing an increase in both financing and lending balances, while large-cap stocks experienced a decline [8][9] - The net buying amounts in the automotive, machinery, and pharmaceutical sectors were significant, while the non-bank financial and electronic sectors saw lower net buying [8][9] Public Fund Weekly Report - The report highlights a significant inflow of funds into the CSI A500 index, exceeding 70 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced substantial outflows [11][12] - The overall equity fund market saw a decrease in average positions, with a drop of 3.07 percentage points to 72.31% as of June 27, 2025 [12] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 13.94 billion yuan, with bond ETFs continuing to attract investments [12] Multi-Factor Stock Selection Model - The report introduces a multi-factor model using random forests to enhance stock selection, capturing non-linear relationships and complex interactions in data [14][16] - The model outperformed the CSI 500 index in terms of total returns and risk-adjusted metrics, demonstrating the practical value of machine learning in quantitative trading [17]

Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock market has abundant liquidity, with a focus on the upward elasticity of the non-bank sector [1] - Since June, the Hong Kong stock market has shown recovery, with the Hang Seng Index up by 4.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 3.31%, outperforming the MSCI World Index which increased by 3.77% [1] - As of June 27, the overall market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 42.84 trillion, an increase of 6.31% compared to the end of May [1] Group 2 - Trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market has increased, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of HKD 229.44 billion, up by 9.12% month-on-month [1] - Southbound capital's ADT increased by 27.16%, accounting for 26.18% of the total turnover [1] - The trading volume of derivatives has also risen, with futures average daily volume (ADV) at 58,000 contracts, up by 6.30%, and options ADV at 82,000 contracts, up by 11.53% [1] Group 3 - The HIBOR rate has risen again since June, with the 6-month HIBOR reaching 2.38% as of June 27, an increase of 0.22 percentage points month-on-month, and a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-to-date [1] - With HIBOR remaining high, the investment income of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to continue to rise [1] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap stocks with good liquidity under the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index is calculated using a free-float market capitalization weighting method and sets a 10% weight limit for individual constituent stocks, reflecting the overall market performance of large-cap stocks in Hong Kong [2]

Group 1: A-Share Mergers and Acquisitions - In the first half of the year, 1493 A-share listed companies planned a total of 1984 mergers and acquisitions, with 102 significant asset restructurings, marking a year-on-year increase of 121.74% [1] - The improvement in the policy support system for mergers and acquisitions is attributed to the implementation of measures related to the reform of the mergers and acquisitions market and the ongoing effectiveness of the management regulations for significant asset restructurings [1] - Companies are increasingly using mergers and acquisitions to enhance their industrial chains and focus on complementary advantages for collaborative development and competitiveness [1] Group 2: A-Share Private Placement - The private placement market in A-shares has seen a significant recovery, with 70 companies raising a total of 695.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 611.62% [1] - Central enterprises and their controlled listed companies accounted for 588.68 billion yuan of the total raised [1] - The private placement market is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year, driven by policy support for state-owned enterprises and projects aligned with national strategic directions [1] Group 3: Hong Kong IPO Market - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market raised over 106.7 billion HKD, with 43 new stocks listed, representing a 43% increase in number and a 708% increase in scale compared to the same period last year [2] - The pace of IPOs has accelerated, with 15 new stocks listed in June alone, and over 200 companies currently in the "processing" status for listing applications [2] Group 4: Fund Issuance and Investment Trends - The issuance of new equity funds reached nearly 240 billion yuan in the first half of the year, the highest since 2022, indicating a significant increase in investor confidence in equity assets [2] - The trend towards index-based investment is notable, with the total size of ETFs approaching 4.3 trillion yuan and a net subscription of 372.5 billion yuan in ETFs this year [2] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Talent Shortage - The semiconductor industry is projected to face a talent shortage of approximately 1 million skilled professionals by 2030, despite various labor development plans [4][5] Group 6: Charging Device Market Changes - Following the implementation of new regulations on charging devices, sales of 3C certified products have surged, while non-compliant products are being sold on second-hand platforms [6] - The industry is expected to move towards standardization and regulation, potentially leading to price increases for charging devices [6] Group 7: Apple and AI Strategy Shift - Apple is considering using AI technologies from Anthropic or OpenAI for its Siri platform, indicating a significant shift in its AI strategy [7] - This move may lead to the abandonment of Apple's self-developed large models for AI functionalities [7] Group 8: Meta's AI Business Restructuring - Meta Platforms Inc. is undergoing a major restructuring of its AI division, focusing on developing "superintelligence" capabilities [8] - A new team, Meta Superintelligence Labs, will be led by Alexandr Wang, with Nat Friedman collaborating on AI product and application research [8] Group 9: Siemens Appointments - Siemens has appointed Vasi Philomin as the executive vice president and head of data and AI, effective July 1 [8] Group 10: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.6% and the S&P 500 reaching a historical closing high [14] - The market is experiencing a positive feedback loop with increased fund inflows and rising stock prices [14]

银行、非银金融等行业募资规模较大 本报记者 吴晓璐 今年以来，定增市场持续回暖。据Wind资讯数据统计，截至6月30日，年内已有70家上市公司实施定增（以定增股份上市 日统计），合计募资6959.19亿元，同比增长611.62%。其中，19家央企和央企控股上市公司定增募资合计5886.8亿元。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，下半年A股定增市场规模有望持续增长，政策驱动下国 企主导的产业升级与并购重组项目将加速推进，聚焦新质生产力领域以及契合国家战略方向的产业。 定增大单频现 参与主体类型多元 此外，今年以来，随着二级市场回暖，定增收益也有所提升。据Wind资讯数据统计，截至6月30日，年内定增项目超九成 浮盈，赚钱效应提升。田利辉表示，这有利于形成"盈利—资金流入"的正向循环，提升投资者参与热情。 深圳大象投资控股集团总裁周力在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，上半年，资金高度聚集在国资主导的能源、电力等 重资产行业，以及半导体、AI等硬科技领域。另外，定增市场赚钱效应增强，促使机构积极参与。 定增预案翻倍增长 政策红利持续释放 今年以来，A股公司发布的定增预案也明显增多。据Wind ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3444.43 points, up 0.59%, and a trading volume of 567.1 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10465.12 points, up 0.83%, with a trading volume of 919.7 billion yuan [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49.7, indicating a recovery in new orders, although it has remained below the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, highlighting ongoing structural risks in the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy committee meeting emphasized the need for new monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand due to ongoing economic pressures. The language shifted from potential rate cuts to a more flexible approach in policy implementation [2] - Following the meeting, bond yields across various maturities increased, indicating market reactions to the changed monetary policy stance [2] Bond Market - The bond market is currently experiencing high demand, with a potential for short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking pressures. However, the overall trend remains bullish due to a combination of weak domestic and external demand and a loose monetary environment [3] - The current low policy interest rates and high market funding rates favor a continuation of the bullish bond market trend, with expectations of further declines in short-term rates potentially leading to breakthroughs in long-term rates [3][4] Defense Industry - The military industry ETF saw a significant increase of 4.37%, driven by heightened global security concerns and the necessity for national defense. The international conflicts have bolstered demand for China's military exports, particularly following the recent performance of domestic military equipment [5] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is expected to serve as a catalyst for the military sector, potentially enhancing both supply and demand dynamics [6] Commodity Market - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper, is experiencing upward pressure due to tight supply conditions and rising prices. The overall low inventory levels and expectations of a loosening monetary policy are likely to support copper prices in the medium to long term [7] - The current phase of the non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a mismatch in supply and demand, alongside expectations of profitability recovery and liquidity easing [7]

Group 1 - The ETF market showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, with over 60% of ETFs recording positive price changes, and the top 20 ETFs all achieving gains of over 37% [2] - The leading ETF, managed by Huatai-PineBridge, tracking the Hong Kong Innovation Drug Index, surged by 59.31%, benefiting from the booming overseas expansion of innovative drugs and supportive policies [2] - A total of 17 out of the top 20 ETFs were related to Hong Kong innovative drugs and biotechnology, indicating a significant market trend towards this sector [2] Group 2 - Gold-related ETFs also performed well, with several achieving nearly 40% gains due to factors such as a weaker US dollar and increased global central bank gold purchases [3] - The top three gold-related ETFs saw gains of 39.6%, 38.73%, and 37.91%, respectively, highlighting strong investor interest in this asset class [3] - Other popular sectors included technology and gaming-related ETFs, while sectors like photovoltaic and coal ETFs experienced significant declines [4] Group 3 - Some ETFs, despite impressive gains, remained relatively small in scale, with the top performers in the mid-cap segment showing gains of over 22% but having low asset sizes, such as 82 million yuan for one ETF [5] - The disparity between performance and scale suggests a potential opportunity for growth in these lesser-known ETFs, despite their current lack of attention from investors [5]