大中华区同店销售额在第二季度增长了3%，扭转上一季度5% 的下滑态势，为中国市场一年来首次恢复增长。 作者：罗文利 封图：东方IC 英国奢侈品牌博柏利（Burberry）凭借去年提出的"Burberry Forward"战略，实现扭亏为盈。该 战略的一项措施是"降低售价、优化奥莱渠道"。但今年11月，在战略实施一年后，博柏利决定不 走"打折"路线了。 博柏利首席执行官约书亚·舒尔曼在11月中旬举行的财报电话会上表示，去年该品牌在线上、线下 渠道均开展公开清仓折扣，虽拉高了同店销售额，但今年将不再延续，转而回归常规季末促销—— 规模收缩、形式低调、折扣幅度降低、频次减少，"这些调整均有助于提升盈利质量"。 博柏利中国11月24日进一步告诉经济观察报，"Burberry Forward"战略是重塑品牌吸引力与价 值创造的正确路径，目前仍处初期阶段。下一阶段，博柏利将继续聚焦外套、围巾等核心品类，依 托优势与多元产品线，拓展消费客群。 博柏利的上述调整源于"Burberry Forward"战略的阶段性反馈。 "Burberry Forward"战略由是舒尔曼在上任四个月时提出的，核心目标是恢复品牌活力、提升业 绩 ...

"Burberry Forward"战略由是舒尔曼在上任四个月时提出的，核心目标是恢复品牌活力、提升业绩表现 及推动长期价值增长。围绕战略落地，博柏利调整过两次价格策略：过去一年，博柏利先尝试涨价未达 预期，后转向降价折扣策略。去年11月，博柏利推出重新定位、降低售价、优化奥莱渠道等品牌重振计 划。 11月14日，博柏利发布的2026财年中期业绩数据显示，截至2025年9月27日的六个月内，该公司销售额 同比下降5%至10.32亿英镑，调整后营业利润为1900万英镑，较去年同期4100万英镑的亏损实现扭亏为 盈。其中，大中华区同店销售额在第二季度增长了3%，扭转上一季度5%的下滑态势，为中国市场一年 来首次恢复增长。 财报显示，其第二财季可比门店销售额同比增长2%，终结连续七个季度下滑；大中华区上半年同店销 售额虽下跌1%，但第二季度增长3%，主要得益于中国情人节的消费热潮。全球范围内，中国市场增长 抵消了出境游人数下降的影响。 正价渠道的强劲表现，进一步降低了博柏利对折扣渠道的依赖。舒尔曼在财报电话会上表示，正价渠道 新品销售亮眼，"这让我对销售质量倍感振奋"。事实上，去年博柏利采取的大幅折扣策略未能对奥莱 ...

Group 1 - The luxury brand Hermès has launched a dog bowl priced at 18,300 yuan for the small size and 20,600 yuan for the large size, highlighting the high price point of luxury goods that are often unattainable for average consumers [2][5] - The dog bowl is made of 100% stainless steel, manufactured in France, and features the "Clou de Forge" pattern along with the engraving "Hermès Sellier Paris," indicating a focus on premium materials and craftsmanship [2] - Hermès customer service noted that the dog bowl is a new product for the Spring 2026 collection, with the large size already sold out on the website, suggesting strong demand for luxury pet products [2][5] Group 2 - In addition to the dog bowl, Hermès offers a range of expensive pet products, including dog collars (priced between 8,000 and 29,700 yuan), dog beds (45,700 yuan), pet bags (25,150 yuan), and raincoats (8,600 to 10,850 yuan), further emphasizing the brand's positioning in the luxury pet market [5] - The high price of the dog bowl has sparked discussions online, with some consumers questioning the value and labeling it as a "smart tax," while others defend it as a legitimate luxury item, indicating the polarizing nature of luxury pricing [19]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's stock has increased by over 3%, currently trading at 46.22 HKD, following the announcement of a property acquisition in Milan for 66.588 million euros [1] Group 1: Company Announcement - Prada has entered into an agreement with Ludo Due S.r.l. to purchase a property located at Via Orobia 3, Milan, Italy, for a total price of 66.588 million euros [1] - The property spans approximately 14,800 square meters and consists of two connected parts [1] Group 2: Project Context - The property is situated in an area affected by the large-scale redevelopment and urban renewal project previously known as "Scalo di Porta Romana" [1] - This project includes the development of the Olympic Village for the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics, new residential and office buildings, and a large park designed to have significant environmental impact and visual appeal [1] Group 3: Regional Impact - The Prada Foundation project completed in 2015 has had a significant positive impact on the surrounding area, contributing to its revitalization [1] - The area has also seen investments and new headquarters established by other leading luxury brands [1]

Market Performance - The US hotel sector increased by 2.8%, with Marriott and Hilton rising by 3.8% and 1.83% respectively, demonstrating resilience under pressure[6] - The overseas sportswear sector decreased by 0.2%, with Amer Sports surging by 12.2% due to strong Q3 performance, leading to a revenue increase of 30%[14] - The jewelry sector fell by 2.1%, influenced by AI bubble concerns and reduced expectations for a December rate cut, strengthening the dollar[14] Sector Analysis - The domestic sportswear sector dropped by 2.4%, with major OEMs like Shenzhou International and Crystal International declining by 6.7% and 2.6% respectively due to geopolitical tensions[14] - The retail sector saw a decline of 4.0%, with China Duty Free falling by 10.5% as investors took profits amid uncertain policy outlooks[14] - The pet sector decreased by 5.7%, with concerns over sustainability as sales expenses outpaced revenue growth[14] Valuation Insights - The expected PE for the overseas sportswear sector in 2025 is 29.0x, which is 54% of the past 5-year average[15] - The expected PE for the domestic cosmetics sector is 27.6x, representing 52% of the past 5-year average[15] - Most sectors are valued below their historical 5-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities[15]

Core Insights - The luxury goods consumption landscape is shifting towards a focus on quality and value, driven by changing consumer preferences and government initiatives to promote quality e-commerce [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The luxury goods market is experiencing a significant transformation, with a shift in consumption focus from the West to China, which is projected to capture 25% of the global luxury market by 2030 [4] - Discount channels are becoming increasingly popular, with sales in discount luxury goods rising by 30% year-on-year in the first nine months of the year [7][8] - Consumers are prioritizing high cost-performance luxury goods, indicating a move away from the traditional mindset of "brand supremacy" to a more rational evaluation of price, service, quality, and practicality [5][8] Group 2: Quality Assurance Initiatives - The partnership between China Inspection and Testing Institute (CITI) and the discount e-commerce platform Vipshop aims to enhance the quality assurance of luxury goods through independent and comprehensive authentication [3][8] - CITI's involvement includes a rigorous inspection process where each luxury item is evaluated by three independent appraisers, ensuring a high level of trust and credibility in the quality of products sold on e-commerce platforms [8] - The trend towards "good and affordable" luxury goods is expected to become mainstream, as consumers increasingly seek both quality and value in their purchases [8]

Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal disagreement regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with notable dissenting votes from board members [3][4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 71%, up from less than 40% previously, following comments from key Federal Reserve officials [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - The power density of AI servers is advancing from 30kW to 100kW, leading to a consensus in the industry that the power supply architecture will evolve towards 800V high-voltage direct current [7] - There is a significant expectation gap regarding the pace and technical path of this transition, with 2025 identified as a "verification year" [7] - Traditional manufacturers face challenges from cross-industry competition, as the core technology of SST has shifted from traditional electromagnetic induction to power electronics, creating substantial technical barriers [7] - Investment recommendations focus on structural increments within the supply chain, advising to avoid negatively impacted traditional AC segments and to concentrate on three key benefiting areas: busbars, cabinet-level energy storage, and power modules [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Changxin Memory has launched its latest DDR5 memory series with speeds reaching 8000Mbps, a 25% improvement over the current market mainstream of 6400Mbps [9] - The introduction of 24Gb high-capacity chips surpasses the standard 16Gb capacity, indicating that domestic memory manufacturers are catching up with the latest DDR product technology [9] - The anticipated demand from AI is expected to boost the market for equipment and materials related to semiconductor wafer sales, particularly in memory [9] Consumer Group - Richemont Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a 14% year-on-year revenue growth, significantly higher than the 6% growth in Q1 FY26 [11][12] - The jewelry business, particularly brands like Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier, saw a 17% year-on-year increase, driving the overall revenue growth [11] - The recovery in sales across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, which collectively grew by 7%, indicates a clear improvement in momentum [11][12] Strategy and Allocation Group - The volatility in overseas markets may be nearing its end, with recent fluctuations in global risk assets, particularly in the stock and commodity markets [14] - Domestic markets are still in a phase of adjustment, with significant declines observed, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, indicating that short-term market adjustments are not yet over [15]

Group 1: Financial Performance - Gap reported a net sales of $3.9 billion for the third quarter, marking a 3% year-over-year increase and achieving positive same-store sales growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] - LuxExperience, the largest luxury e-commerce group, experienced a 4.3% decline in GMV to €589 million and a 4.2% drop in net sales to €557.2 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of €28.1 million [7] - Swiss watch exports fell by 4.4% year-over-year in October, totaling CHF 2.2 billion (approximately $2.7 billion), with a significant 47% drop in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [5] Group 2: Market Trends - The luxury market in China shows signs of recovery, with Swiss watch exports to China increasing for the second consecutive month by 13% [5] - The auction by Phillips achieved a total sales of over HKD 304 million, setting a record for the highest permanent watch auction in Asia [4] - The opening of Vhernier's first Asian boutique in Hong Kong indicates a resurgence of luxury retail in the region [8] Group 3: Company Strategies and Changes - EssilorLuxottica is preparing to acquire 5%-10% of Giorgio Armani's shares, positioning itself as a financial investor without involvement in daily operations [3] - Harrods announced the closure of its Shanghai private members' club and tea room, indicating a strategic shift to focus on more impactful experiences in other regions of China [12] - Triumph's brand, Dianafen, will close all offline and online stores in mainland China by December 2025, reflecting challenges in adapting to local market demands [9] Group 4: New Initiatives - Kering SA plans to establish a venture capital department named House of Dreams to adapt to technological changes and evolving consumer demands [13] - Marriott International's luxury brand launched a new dining project "Table Stories," blending art and cuisine to create a unique luxury experience [10]

Group 1: AI Bubble Concerns - Concerns about an AI bubble are rising as the enthusiasm for investment in AI infrastructure has cooled despite strong performances from companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft [2][3] - Nvidia's third-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but analysts believe its results do not fully alleviate market concerns about an AI bubble [2] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that over half of fund managers believe AI stocks are in a bubble, with high valuations posing risks to financial markets [3] Group 2: High Tariff Barriers Impacting Performance - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has become more pronounced, negatively affecting the quarterly performance and annual forecasts of many export-oriented companies in Europe and Japan [4][5] - European luxury goods companies are facing significant revenue declines, with LVMH's fashion and leather goods revenue down approximately 8% and Kering's Gucci brand down about 22% year-over-year [4] - German automakers are also suffering, with Porsche's automotive business profit plummeting nearly 99% and Volkswagen's operating profit down 58% due to high tariffs [4] Group 3: Consumer Slowdown and Layoff Trends - U.S. consumer sentiment is notably low, with major companies announcing significant layoffs, contributing to economic uncertainty [6][7] - Kraft Heinz's CEO noted that consumer sentiment is at one of its lowest points in decades, indicating a split in consumer spending behavior [6] - Layoffs have reached nearly 1 million in the U.S. in the first nine months of the year, the highest since 2020, with major companies like Amazon and Target laying off approximately 80,000 employees [7]

Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - The trend of downgraded consumption is becoming mainstream, with high-end brands facing a collective downturn as consumer traffic in premium malls in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has decreased by 18% year-on-year, while affordable brands like Miniso and NetEase Yanxuan have seen sales surge by 32.6% [1] - This shift is not merely a reaction to economic downturns but reflects a rational awakening among the middle class, as consumers prioritize practical value over symbolic value, leading to anxiety in the luxury goods sector [1] Group 2: Urban Migration Trends - There is a significant net outflow of population from first-tier cities, with 632,000 people leaving Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in 2024, while new first-tier cities like Chengdu, Xi'an, and Changsha are experiencing population growth exceeding 500,000 [3] - The high cost of living in first-tier cities, exemplified by a housing price-to-income ratio exceeding 20:1, is driving this migration, as individuals seek more affordable living conditions in emerging cities [3] Group 3: Revival of Physical Bookstores - The number of physical bookstores in China has increased by 6,700 in 2024, with hybrid bookstores achieving a customer spending rate 1.85 times higher than traditional bookstores [3] - The social aspect of these bookstores, such as coffee areas and community events, is a key factor in their success, indicating a desire for real social interactions in a digital age [3] Group 4: Resurgence of Traditional Crafts - The revival of traditional crafts is being led by younger generations, with 67% of artisans on Douyin being post-95s, highlighting a shift towards valuing craftsmanship over fast consumption [5] - This trend suggests a changing societal definition of success, as young people are willing to pursue less lucrative but personally fulfilling careers in traditional crafts [5] Group 5: Digital Detox Movement - A digital detox movement is emerging among young people, with daily internet usage among the 18-25 age group decreasing from 6.2 hours to 5.6 hours in 2023, and sales of feature phones increasing by 85% [6] - This trend reflects a backlash against excessive digitalization, as individuals seek to improve their quality of life and work efficiency by reducing screen time [6] Group 6: Rise of Flexible Employment - The number of freelancers in China has reached 240 million, with 35% identifying as "slash youth," indicating a shift away from traditional career paths [8] - This flexible income model allows individuals to diversify their income sources, but it also raises concerns about social security coverage and job stability for this vulnerable group [8] Group 7: Interconnected Social Phenomena - The various trends observed, such as downgraded consumption, urban migration, bookstore revival, traditional craft resurgence, digital detox, and flexible employment, are interconnected and reflect a broader societal redefinition of what constitutes a good life [10] - These phenomena indicate a societal progression rather than mere anomalies, prompting a reevaluation of existing systems and policies to align with these changes [11][15]