[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Oct 2025 中国零售 China (A-share) Retail 大消费渠道脉搏：华南购物中心专家交流，黄金周线下零售表现承压，品牌表现分化 Consumer Channel Pulse: South Shopping Mall Experts Meeting, Offline Retail Sale was Under Pressure, with Brand Performance Showing Divergence during Golden Week 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 骆雅丽 Yali Luo yy.kou@htisec.com yl.luo@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 10 月 8 日，海通国际海外消费组邀请华南地区购物中心专家分享 25Q3 及黄金周线下零售情况。 25Q3 及黄金周前 3 天华南地 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new consumer brands in China, emphasizing the need for innovative marketing strategies to thrive in a rapidly changing competitive landscape [1][2][18] - The PMC (Potential Marketing Communication) theory is introduced as a framework for understanding the growth logic and innovative models of new consumer brands [1][2][18] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competitive environment has drastically changed, with the rise of new consumer demographics and the advent of new consumerism, leading to the decline of traditional brand marketing methods [1][2][18] - New consumer brands like Gao Fan and Li Du have achieved exponential growth through innovative approaches, such as premium product offerings and immersive consumer experiences [1][2][19][20] Group 2: Brand Growth Characteristics - New consumer brands share common growth characteristics, including a focus on niche markets, preference for high-end positioning, and the use of content marketing over traditional advertising [1][2][19][20] - Successful brands have utilized strategic public relations and new retail channels, such as online short video and live-streaming e-commerce, to reach target audiences effectively [1][2][19][20] Group 3: PMC Marketing Innovation Model - The PMC model encompasses several key elements: market growth positioning, celebrity endorsements from entrepreneurs and KOLs, and the creation of star products that stand out in the market [2][18][46] - The report also analyzes successful case studies of traditional brands that have revitalized their market presence through innovative strategies, such as Yaya's transformation and the collaboration of Da Bai Tu with new brands [2][18][46] Group 4: Case Studies of New Consumer Brands - Gao Fan achieved a sales breakthrough of 1.7 billion yuan in three years, becoming the top brand in high-end down jackets [19] - Li Du transformed its business model, resulting in a 60-fold revenue increase over ten years and becoming the first stock of light bottle liquor in Hong Kong [20][22] - Three Dunsan, with its freeze-dried coffee innovation, reached a valuation of 4.5 billion yuan, outperforming Nestlé in the instant coffee market [28][29] - Lululemon surpassed Adidas in market capitalization, becoming the third-largest sports brand globally, with a revenue growth of over 10 times in a decade [30][32] Group 5: Future Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional and cultural values in brand building, suggesting that brands must create additional benefits to remain competitive in the new commercial era [2][18][46] - The shift from traditional advertising to customer value innovation is identified as a fundamental change in brand-building strategies, with a focus on building brand equity through authentic consumer engagement [46][47]

Core Insights - The report highlights the failure of traditional brand marketing models in the new commercial era, emphasizing that new consumer brands achieve exponential growth through innovative strategies [1][10][16] - It introduces the PMC (Potential Marketing Communication) model, which focuses on customer value innovation, niche market penetration, and content marketing as key drivers for brand growth [1][16][48] Group 1: Market Environment Changes - The competitive landscape has dramatically shifted, leading to the decline of traditional brands and the rise of new consumer groups and consumption ideologies [1][10][14] - New consumer brands are not relying on traditional advertising but are instead focusing on value innovation and brand engagement to drive growth [1][10][46] Group 2: Case Studies of New Consumer Brands - High Fan achieved the top position in high-end down jackets within three years, breaking the 2000 price barrier with innovative materials and marketing strategies [1][18] - Li Du created the most expensive light bottle liquor in China, becoming the first liquor stock in Hong Kong, with a tax revenue increase of 100 times over ten years [1][19][21] - Orange Du led the domestic makeup market, achieving significant sales growth by expanding product categories and targeting diverse consumer demographics [1][22][24] - Babycare entered the top tier of the mother and baby market within three years, offering a wide range of products and achieving over 50 billion in sales by 2024 [1][26][28] - Three Dots Half surpassed Nestlé in the instant coffee market, achieving a valuation of 4.5 billion with innovative product offerings and marketing strategies [1][29][30] - Lululemon's market value surpassed Adidas, becoming the third-largest sports brand globally, with a revenue increase of 19% in 2023 [1][31][35] - Tineco achieved a valuation of 10 billion within five years by redefining the cleaning appliance market through user-centric innovations [1][36][37] - De You created a new category in wet toilet paper, achieving over tenfold growth in four years, with a market share exceeding 50% [1][38][40] - NIO became the highest-valued car company in China within six years, surpassing traditional automotive giants through innovative branding and customer engagement strategies [1][41][42] Group 3: New Marketing Strategies - The shift from advertising to customer value innovation is a fundamental change in brand building, with a focus on creating star products and enhancing consumer experience [1][47] - Niche market selection has become the primary path for new consumer brands, allowing them to build competitive advantages in less saturated markets [1][48] - High-end strategies have led to exponential growth for many new consumer brands, emphasizing the importance of brand equity and emotional connection with consumers [1][49]

Core Insights - The conference held in Xiamen, China, focused on five key sectors: artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, advanced manufacturing, new energy, and consumer goods, aiming to discuss development paths and industry future [1] - The event emphasized the collaboration between government, capital, and industry to address pain points and bottlenecks in industrial development [1] Company Overview - The company, founded in 1989, is the largest investment institution focused on the consumer sector globally, managing approximately $37 billion across nine different investment strategies [4] - The company has invested in over 300 representative consumer brands over the past 30 years, emphasizing long-term partnerships with enterprises [4] Investment Strategy - The company adopts a "Glocal" approach, combining global methodologies and consumer insights with local market applications, particularly in China [5] - The focus is on building brands that convey emotional value and resonate deeply with consumers, leveraging China's strong supply chain capabilities and mature digital commerce [5] Market Focus - The company prioritizes investments in China and the United States, while also exploring opportunities in Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, and South America [4] - The company identifies sustainable consumer behavior trends, such as "contactless" payments and the rise of "solo economy," to guide investment decisions [8] Brand Development - The company aims to assist local emerging brands in achieving dual upgrades in branding and distribution, helping them secure advantageous positions in broader markets [9] - The company emphasizes the importance of emotional value in branding, illustrated by successful collaborations like the partnership between Heytea and FENDI [10] Localization Strategy - The company recognizes the need for localized understanding in the Chinese market, tailoring strategies to different regional consumer preferences and characteristics [11] - The company integrates local capabilities with global experience to support the growth of outstanding Chinese brands into industry leaders on a global scale [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in the era of user sovereignty, consumers shift from passive information acceptance to actively controlling their choices, making "word of mouth" a critical factor in consumer decision-making [1][4] - Companies must establish a comprehensive monitoring system to capture user feedback across all channels, moving from a "one-way output" to "full perception" of user needs and preferences [1][3] - The essence of listening is to adopt a humble approach to understand real user needs rather than trying to "educate users" [1] Group 2 - Companies need to create a rapid response mechanism to turn crises into opportunities for rebuilding trust, as negative word of mouth can spread quickly [3] - A key aspect of responding is not just problem-solving but also conveying a "user-first" value through the company's attitude, making consumers feel valued [3] - The ultimate goal of maintaining word of mouth is to elevate users from mere satisfaction to becoming brand advocates, establishing emotional connections beyond functional satisfaction [3][4] Group 3 - In the user sovereignty era, word of mouth represents the "trust vote" cast by consumers, and companies must integrate word of mouth maintenance into their strategic DNA to gain a competitive edge [4] - The best marketing is not about persuasion but about enabling users to genuinely recommend the brand [4]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) will be held from November 5 to 10, 2025, at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, with preparations shifting from exhibition recruitment to exhibition management as the event approaches [1] - The theme for this year's consumer goods exhibition area is "Higher Quality, Better Life," focusing on "New" Living, "Cool" Technology, and "Trendy" Fashion [1] Group 2: Key Exhibitors and Products - L'Oréal, a consistent participant, will showcase its theme "Infinity of Beauty" with three major exhibition areas, featuring 25 brands and the strongest lineup of new product launches, including three Asian debuts: Dr.G, Miu Miu, and Shu Uemura [1] - Panasonic will introduce the new Himalaya series of embedded kitchen appliances, emphasizing health through efficient sterilization and smart control [2] - BWT will present a new water treatment device designed to enhance coffee flavor, adhering to SCA extraction standards [2] - MUJI will highlight its theme "The Beauty of Cultivation," showcasing new products that reflect a philosophy of continuity and coexistence with nature [2][3] Group 3: Participation and Scale - The 8th CIIE has signed contracts for over 330,000 square meters of exhibition space, with 170 companies and 27 institutions confirmed as full-time participants [4] - The online supply and procurement hall for the expo has been launched to facilitate trade and investment negotiations [5]

Group 1 - The event "Enjoy Autumn Time · Experience Chenghua" is launched to promote consumption in Chenghua District, aligning with Chengdu's goal of becoming an "International Consumption Center City" and responding to the national strategy of expanding domestic demand [1][3] - The event integrates four major business circles and various sectors such as automotive, sports, and dining to create immersive consumption experiences for citizens [1][3] - Activities include interactive rewards for participation in major venues like Youke City Outlet and SM Department Store, allowing citizens to enjoy discounts and experience the cultural and commercial vitality of Chenghua [1][3] Group 2 - The event features themes such as "New Beginnings for School," "Gifts for Teachers," "Seasonal Products," and "Stylish Autumn Outings," targeting the needs of students, teachers, and families, and shifting consumption focus from mere sales to experiential engagement [3] - Interactive activities include the "Blind Box Challenge" and cross-store stamp collection for significant discounts, enhancing consumer engagement and driving consumption cycles [3] - The event has a broad reach, with various enterprises participating, including automotive companies offering purchase discounts and themed experiences from brands like Layback Quantum Climbing and McDonald's, creating a city-wide promotional atmosphere [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of the Global Engagement Optimization (GEO) framework on brand-user interactions, shifting from traditional marketing to a co-creation model that enhances long-term brand growth [1] Group 1: Brand Connection Challenges - The traditional marketing funnel is becoming ineffective, with consumers exposed to over 5000 ads daily but retaining only 1.2% in memory [1] - The fragmentation of information channels and the shift from linear decision-making to a networked structure of experience, trust, and repurchase are highlighted [1] - A survey indicates that 83% of Gen Z consumers will permanently abandon a brand after a negative experience, while only 17% are willing to give a second chance [1] Group 2: GEO Framework for Connection Reconstruction - The GEO model reconstructs connections through three dimensions: Global touchpoint layout, Emotional value embedding, and Open ecosystem operation [2] - The elevation of touchpoints includes integrating physical and digital experiences, exemplified by a smart home brand that increased repurchase rates by 240% through predictive service reminders [2] - The narrative revolution emphasizes the need for brands to engage in liquid storytelling, as seen in a new energy vehicle brand that shortened product development cycles by 30% and achieved a pre-sale conversion rate 3.6 times the industry average [2] - Companies utilizing the GEO model have a user data utilization rate of 78%, significantly above the industry average [2] Group 3: Technological Innovations Driving GEO Implementation - AIGC is reshaping content production, with 42% of brands expected to use AI-generated personalized content by 2025, leading to a 17-minute increase in user interaction time per month [3] - Blockchain technology is enhancing trust mechanisms, with a system that reduces counterfeit complaints by 92% through product lifecycle traceability [3] - The metaverse is creating immersive experiences, as demonstrated by a fast-moving consumer goods brand that received product ideas from 137 countries within three months [3] Group 4: Value Measurement System for Long-term Connections - The GEO model necessitates new evaluation dimensions, including Relationship Temperature Index (RTI), which shows that a 1-point increase in RTI can boost user lifetime value by 23% [4] - Co-creation Value Pool (CVP) measures the commercial value generated from user participation in product improvements, with a digital brand generating an additional 120 million yuan annually from user-developed plugins [4] - Ecosystem Health Index (EHI) monitors the collaborative state among users, partners, and the social environment, with leading companies beginning to publish sustainability reports [4] Group 5: Future Challenges in GEO Strategy Implementation - Brands must be cautious of data ethics boundaries, as excessive personalization can lead to negative user experiences, exemplified by a social platform that saw a 15% drop in daily active users due to precise recommendations [6] - The fairness of value distribution is a new challenge, focusing on how to share benefits through token economies when users contribute data and ideas [7] - Organizational capabilities need restructuring, with traditional marketing departments evolving into user growth centers, as seen in a multinational company appointing a Chief Experience Officer [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI Scene Revolution" and its impact on business, emphasizing the need for reconstructing meaning in various scenarios through innovative methods and the emergence of new species in the market [5][20]. Group 1: Scene Creation Over the Past Decade - The past decade has been marked by the evolution of "scene creation," where meticulously designed scenarios drive the growth of new market entities [11][19]. - The evolution of brands like Sanwing Bird illustrates the shift from product-centric to solution-oriented approaches, focusing on personalized home scene customization [14][15]. - Red Star Macalline's transformation into an "AI home life destination" showcases the integration of home appliances, furniture, and decoration into a cohesive business model [17][19]. Group 2: Instant Emergence and Meaning Reconstruction - The concept of "instant emergence" highlights the importance of designing specific scenarios to avoid losing sight of the rapid changes in AI applications and market dynamics [20][22]. - The advancements in AI technology, such as Amazon's robotics and Google's Gemini Robotics, signify a shift towards cognitive capabilities in machines, although the full potential is yet to be realized [22][24]. - The article posits that the AI scene revolution is fundamentally a cognitive revolution, urging a return to philosophical inquiries about human existence and meaning [24][26]. Group 3: The Four Keywords of Meaning Coordinates - The four keywords for reconstructing meaning in the current era are NOW (the power of connection), HERE (the reality of presence), FLOW (the pursuit of immersive experiences), and EGO (the core question of self) [26][28]. Group 4: The NOW Connection - The NOW concept emphasizes the significance of real-time connections in the AI era, where platforms like Xiaohongshu redefine user engagement through immediacy and shared experiences [30][33]. - The organizational innovation at brands like Three Squirrels demonstrates how understanding the needs of younger consumers can lead to effective decision-making and product development [38][39]. Group 5: Flowing Human-Machine Interaction - The evolution of human-machine interaction is characterized by the emergence of "intelligent agents" that enhance user experiences through seamless communication and emotional understanding [51][52]. - Companies like Lenovo are leading the way in creating integrated AI ecosystems that facilitate smooth interactions across various devices [54][56]. Group 6: Beyond the Scene Narrative - The article discusses how physical retail spaces, such as Anta's innovative stores, serve as both entry points and destinations, enhancing customer engagement through unique narratives [78][79]. - The integration of digital and physical experiences is crucial for creating meaningful interactions in today's market [82][83]. Group 7: The EGO Consensus - The importance of maintaining uniqueness while fostering collective intelligence is emphasized, as seen in brands like Maogeping, which focus on individual beauty and personalized experiences [101][102]. - The article suggests that the AI cycle is leading to a new balance, where brands must adapt to the evolving landscape while staying true to their core values [103].

Group 1 - The core adjustment of Nestlé China is underway, with the appointment of Pamela Takai as the new head of coffee business, effective September 1, 2025 [1][2] - This change follows Kais Marzouki's assumption of the CEO role for Nestlé Greater China on July 1, 2025, indicating a strategic shift in leadership [2][4] - The coffee business is a key revenue driver for Nestlé, accounting for a significant portion of its sales, despite a 1.8% decline in overall sales in the first half of 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - Nestlé's sales in Greater China fell to 2.47 billion Swiss francs (approximately 20.76 billion RMB) in the first half of 2025, down from 2.639 billion Swiss francs (approximately 21.41 billion RMB) in the same period last year [2] - The coffee segment represents about 4% of Nestlé's coffee business, with estimated revenues of approximately 960 million Swiss francs (around 7.9 billion RMB) for 2023, showing little change since 2021 [3] - The adjustments in Greater China are part of a systematic approach to enhance focus and investment in consumer demand and demographics, as stated by CEO Laurent Freixe [5][6]