证券之星消息，9月22日一般零售板块较上一交易日下跌1.5%，汇嘉时代领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3828.58，上涨0.22%。深证成指报收于13157.97，上涨0.67%。一般零售板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600857 | 宁波中百 | 1626.16万 | 10.05% | -700.24万 | -4.33% | -925.92万 | -5.72% | | 600113 | 浙江东日 | 1373.03万 | 4.54% | 686.89万 | 2.27% | -2059.93万 | -6.81% | | 002356 赫美集团 | | 1012.65万 | 4.00% | -222.31万 | -0.88% | -790.34万 | -3.12% | | 601366 | 利群股份 | 656.77万 | 18.34% | -166.15万 | -4.64% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Hong Kong Shanghai Cooperation Development Holdings (ALMAD Group) by Zheng Zhigang aims to invest in nine innovative industries expected to reshape the global economic landscape over the next twenty years [2][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - ALMAD Group is headquartered in Hong Kong and will operate as a diversified enterprise across multiple sectors [5]. - The company will focus on three main areas: investment in emerging markets, innovation and financial breakthroughs, and the expansion of the K11 by AC cultural ecosystem [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The investment strategy includes sectors such as culture, entertainment, sports, media, healthcare, business management, and the large cultural tourism industry, which are anticipated to have high growth potential and align with the future needs of Generation Z and Millennials [5]. - ALMAD Group aims to explore opportunities in digital and virtual assets, particularly in the Web 3.0 financial innovation frontier, while also investigating blockchain technology and immersive digital experiences across various industries [5]. Group 3: Cultural Ecosystem Expansion - K11 by AC will serve as the cultural brand under ALMAD Group, focusing on reshaping the retail and cultural market landscape, managing retail assets, and serving multiple stakeholders [6]. - The K11 brand, founded by Zheng Zhigang, has expanded rapidly, particularly in the mainland China and Middle Eastern markets, with its anime IP business "Experience 11" gaining traction [6]. Group 4: Background of Zheng Zhigang - Zheng Zhigang, a third-generation member of the Zheng family, has a background in investment banking with experience at UBS and Goldman Sachs before returning to the family business [8]. - He has been instrumental in the IPO of New World Department Store and has held various leadership roles within the New World Group before fully stepping away from family business responsibilities [8][9]. Group 5: Family Office Influence - Zheng Zhigang has been active in promoting the influence of family offices in Hong Kong, with over 200 family offices established or expanding their operations in the region as of 2023 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant activity on September 22, with a total of 73 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and market momentum [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hangzhou Dianzi shares (杭电股份) achieved a five-day consecutive limit up, driven by the optical communication sector [1]. - Demingli (德明利), a storage chip concept stock, recorded a two-day consecutive limit up, reflecting positive sentiment in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: Notable Stocks and Concepts - ST Zhengping (*ST正平) led with seven consecutive limit ups in the road and bridge engineering sector [1]. - Yunnan Tourism (云南旅游) and Huashu Technology (华软科技) both saw four and two consecutive limit ups respectively, indicating growing interest in humanoid robots and fine chemicals [1]. - Other notable stocks include Red Bean Shares (红豆股份) with three consecutive limit ups in new retail, and Fulongma (福龙马) also with three in the robotics sector [1].

Market Overview - The three major stock indices experienced narrow fluctuations in the morning, followed by a rebound in the afternoon, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising significantly [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.22% to 3828.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13157.97 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.55% to 3107.89 points [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a notable increase of 3.38%, while the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,427 billion [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as tourism, catering, liquor, food and beverage, media, retail, and banking experienced declines [1] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, while brokerage and automotive sectors also saw gains [1] - Consumer electronics and CPO concepts were active in the market [1] Analyst Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the market remains at a high level without a clear trend of topping or retreating [1] - There is an increasing rotation among previously popular sectors, with the overall index in a phase of horizontal consolidation [1] - Historical reference suggests that the final support level may align with the 60-day moving average, indicating a likelihood of continued sector rotation and declines in high-performing stocks [1] - The recommendation is to maintain a horizontal mindset in the short term, focusing on sector rotation and individual stocks rather than the overall index [1]

Core Insights - Poland's government imposed a sudden ban on all land border crossings with Belarus citing national security, which has led to significant disruptions in the Eurasian logistics network [2] - The closure of the border has resulted in a paralysis of the Central European freight routes, particularly affecting the Malaszewicze transshipment station, which handles approximately 90% of freight volume for the Central European Railway [2][4] - The crisis has triggered a chain reaction affecting various industries, with logistics costs rising over 15%, production halts in major companies, and significant unemployment risks for local logistics workers [4][6] Logistics and Supply Chain Impact - Over 300 freight trains have been stranded, leading to a backlog of 30,000 containers, impacting the supply of Christmas goods and essential electronic components [2][4] - Major companies like Volkswagen have halted production due to chip shortages, incurring daily losses of €2 million [4] - The crisis has prompted companies to diversify their supply chains, with some increasing local procurement rates and investing in alternative manufacturing locations [9][11] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The Polish government's decision is viewed as a political maneuver against China's stance on the Ukraine issue, despite the significant trade relationship between Poland and China, which reached €28.7 billion in 2024 [6][8] - China is actively working to secure the Central European Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, while also developing alternative logistics routes through Central Asia and the South [8] - The crisis has highlighted divisions within the EU, with neighboring countries urging Poland to reopen its borders to avoid further supply chain disruptions [8] Future Outlook - The ongoing situation may lead to a permanent loss of Poland's status as a logistics hub for Central Europe, as companies adapt to new supply chain routes and logistics networks [13] - The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is expected to shorten freight distances and increase annual capacity significantly [8][13] - The crisis could serve as a pivotal moment for global supply chain diversification, reshaping trade routes and logistics networks across Eurasia [13]

Group 1 - The EU has initiated an economic battle against Russia, targeting its energy sector and countries closely related to Russia [1] - The EU plans to completely cut off energy imports from Russia in the coming years, which threatens the low-cost oil and gas supply that supports the living standards of European citizens [1] - The EU is also focusing on affordable consumer goods from Asian countries, which have helped low-income European households maintain a decent living [1] Group 2 - A significant customs inspection operation at the Greek port of Piraeus has led to the seizure of over 2,400 containers from China, allegedly involved in tax evasion, resulting in an estimated loss of around 800 million euros in tax revenue for EU countries [3] - The European Public Prosecutor's Office has emphasized a crackdown on illegal trade practices, with ongoing investigations and the detention of a Chinese cargo ship [3] - Poland's indefinite closure of its border with Belarus, justified by joint military exercises, has caused a backlog of goods and is seen as a covert sanction against Chinese trade through the Russia-Belarus route [3][5] Group 3 - The land transport route through Russia is the most efficient channel for Chinese goods entering Europe, with trade volume expected to surge by 150% to 25 billion euros in 2024 [5] - This route, which accounts for 90% of China-Europe rail freight, is now paralyzed, undermining the rapid delivery advantage of Chinese companies [5] - Poland's actions have resulted in over 1,400 Polish trucks being stranded in Belarus, indicating a detrimental impact on its own logistics [7] Group 4 - The EU's economic coercion may underestimate China's countermeasures, driven by ideological biases and a desire to align with the U.S. [9] - In response, China has initiated testing of the Arctic shipping route, with the first container ship set to depart from Ningbo, potentially reshaping global logistics and providing Russia with a new strategic foothold [11]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency is promoting Hong Kong as a key link between mainland China and the Asian market during a visit to South America, highlighting its role as a "super connector" and "super value creator" [1][2] - The South American market shows strong growth potential, with local businesses actively seeking opportunities in Asia, particularly in mainland China and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] Group 1 - The Assistant Director of the Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency, Liu Zhiyuan, is visiting Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Lima, Peru, from September 22 to September 26 to enhance trade relations [1] - During the visit to Argentina, Liu will meet with the Argentine Investment and International Trade Promotion Bureau to discuss the local business environment and cooperation opportunities, promoting Hong Kong's advantages in finance, regulations, innovation, and establishing international or regional headquarters [1] - In Peru, Liu will engage with the Peruvian Export and Tourism Promotion Board and participate in the 2025 International Food Exhibition, meeting local food export companies to introduce Hong Kong's unique business advantages and opportunities [1] Group 2 - Liu will meet with representatives from South American companies interested in establishing a business presence in Hong Kong, covering sectors such as food trade, agricultural exports, technology, e-commerce, brand development, and retail [2] - The economic cooperation between Hong Kong and Argentina and Peru is frequent, with bilateral trade amounts projected to reach 3 billion HKD and 6 billion HKD respectively in 2024 [2] - Peru is a participant in the Belt and Road Initiative, with bilateral trade with Hong Kong growing nearly 10% annually since 2020, and a Free Trade Agreement signed in 2024 to further promote investment flows and economic development [2]

Group 1 - The overall consumption market in China remained stable in August 2025, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 3.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to August reached 32.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Goods consumption showed steady growth, with retail sales in August increasing by 3.6%. Sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant increases of 18.6%, 14.3%, 14.2%, and 7.3% respectively [1] - Key retail enterprises reported year-on-year sales growth of 20.7% for tablets, 17.7% for smart air conditioners, and 8.2% for mobile phones in August [1] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August [1] Group 3 - Service consumption experienced rapid growth, driven by increased demand for tourism and leisure activities during the summer. Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The total box office for summer movies reached 11.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - New types of consumption, including digital, green, and health-related consumption, continued to grow rapidly, with online retail sales reaching 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [2] - Retail sales of physical goods online reached 8.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% [2] - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 7.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [2] Group 5 - Inbound consumption continued to expand, with the "Purchase in China" initiative gaining momentum. The number of tax refund stores exceeded 10,000 by the end of August, and sales of tax refund goods increased by 97.5% year-on-year [2] - The number of individuals enjoying tax refunds increased by 2.5 times year-on-year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products continuing to weaken. Macro factors are mixed, and fundamentals may dominate the trend. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. - Overseas, the new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus, the Fed cut interest rates, US retail sales grew, and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index increased [3]. - Domestically, due to factors such as slowing export growth, economic downward pressure has increased in August. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies, focusing on fiscal support, central bank interest rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic**: This week, the commodity index showed a trend of rising and then falling, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products weakening. The first half of the week was stimulated by factors such as progress in China - US trade negotiations and rising Fed interest - rate cut expectations, while the second half was suppressed by the landing of interest - rate cut expectations and the rebound of the US dollar index [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus in Madrid. On September 18th, the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. On September 16th, US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In August, due to factors like slowing export growth, economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, new incremental measures will be introduced, with the core being fiscal support, central bank interest - rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. The joint efforts of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on "stabilizing investment" and "promoting consumption" [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Macro factors are mixed. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the "restart of easing" will have an important impact on market liquidity [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, and the real retail sales after CPI adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month [3]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose, and the industrial output in July rebounded slightly [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In August, due to factors such as slowing export growth, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial production, investment, and consumption continued to decline, and economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [3]. - The cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turning positive is a positive signal, but the year - on - year decline in the transfer income of state - owned land use rights indicates that local land finance still faces certain pressure [3]. - Nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures from five aspects [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **开工率数据**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rates of terephthalic acid, polyester, and weaving in the polyester industry chain, as well as the national and Tangshan blast furnace operating rates [33]. - **汽车销售数据**: The data shows the year - on - year growth rates of factory wholesale and retail sales, and specific sales data for September [42][45]. - **农产品价格数据**: The data includes the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]