Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening. Slaughterhouses can easily acquire supplies, resulting in sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] - The demand side indicates that there is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, with little change in slaughter volume, and pork consumption continues to be weak [2][20] - Overall, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains high, terminal demand has not improved, there is little second - fattening, supply exceeds demand, pig prices have reached a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening, leading to smooth acquisition of supplies by slaughterhouses and sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - There is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, and there is little change in slaughter volume, with pork consumption remaining weak [2][20] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text 4. Market Outlook - The supply side has high slaughter enthusiasm from farms, strict transportation inspections, and low second - fattening enthusiasm, resulting in sufficient supplies. The demand side has no obvious positive news, high fresh - sales rate, and little change in slaughter volume. Supply exceeds demand, pig prices are at a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in China on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter increased slightly to 128.32 kg as of the week ending September 11, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 kg [1][2] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig supply from sample enterprises, with expected increases of 1.29%, 4.11%, and 3.92% respectively, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Recent policies emphasize capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially raising the long-term price level of pigs [3] - Low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies are anticipated to gain excess returns as the industry adjusts [3] Group 3: Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattening bulls remained stable, with prices at 32.44 yuan/kg and 25.97 yuan/kg respectively as of September 12, showing a year-to-date increase of 35% and 10% [4] - The beef market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with a potential upward cycle anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [4] Group 4: Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend since late 2021, reaching 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 5, 2025, a cumulative decline of 31% from peak levels [5] - The ongoing losses in the dairy industry are leading to a reduction in production capacity, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [5] Group 5: Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased to 7.02 yuan/kg as of September 12, with a week-on-week decline of 0.20 yuan/kg due to increased supply [6] - Egg prices rebounded to an average of 7.15 yuan/kg from September 8-12, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 yuan/kg, driven by pre-festival stocking [6] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures and spot prices showed mixed trends, with futures at 3079 yuan/ton and spot prices at 3060 yuan/ton as of September 12 [7] - The USDA's supply and demand report slightly adjusted the forecast for U.S. soybean planting area and ending stocks, indicating ongoing market dynamics [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the weekly situation of the feed and breeding industry, including the markets of pigs, eggs, and corn, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions based on the supply - demand, cost, and other factors of each variety [4][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Breeding View Summary - **Pigs**: Supply growth suppresses prices, and the futures price can be short - sold on rebounds. In the short term, policy regulation and pre - holiday stocking expectations may support prices, but the large supply will limit the upside. In the long term, the supply before May next year will increase, and prices will still be under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: The game between supply and demand intensifies, and it is necessary to wait for spot guidance. In the short term, cold - storage eggs may limit price increases, and in the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [5]. - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under seasonal pressure. In the long term, the planting is stable, but the cost support has shifted down [6]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the national spot price was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13255 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was 215 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The average weekly slaughter weight increased, the fat - standard price difference widened, the daily average slaughter rate and slaughter volume decreased first and then increased, the cold - storage inventory rate increased slightly, the pig - grain ratio decreased, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased, and the number of live - pig warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance improved. The supply of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 and 01 contracts, take rolling stop - profit on short positions and add short positions on rebounds. The 05 and 03 contracts are generally weak, and the 03 contract is weaker. The 07 contract is relatively strong. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.61 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 34 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was 230 yuan/500 kg, up 306 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of eggs increased, the utilization rate of hatching eggs was stable, the number of culled chickens decreased, the egg - chick price decreased, the production and circulation inventories decreased, and the profit of egg - chicken farming improved [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - laid hens in September is relatively high, and the number of culled chickens has slowed down. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [83]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For non - holders, wait for spot guidance. For short positions, pay attention to the pressure level of 3100 - 3150. The 12 and 01 contracts are mainly in a wide - range shock [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 113 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of corn in some areas increased, the inventory of old - crop corn was limited, the new - crop corn in some areas of the Northeast was gradually listed, the import volume decreased, the demand for feed and deep - processing was weak, and the inventory decreased [90]. - **Key Data Tracking**: In the next 10 days, precipitation in some areas is expected to be higher than normal, which may have an impact on corn production. The overall growth of new - season corn is suitable, but the cost support has shifted down [100]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 - contract, wait for rebounds to short - sell, pay attention to the pressure level of 2220 - 2250, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [100].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pork prices have reached a new low for the year, with oversupply issues expected to persist in the short term [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of lean pork in China has dropped to 17.15 yuan per kilogram, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - This price represents a decrease of 3.50% compared to the beginning of the month and a significant decline of 32.44% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is currently no significant improvement in terminal demand, while upstream breeding operations are actively selling off stock [1] - Slaughterhouses are controlling inventory strictly, leading to an oversupply of white pork [1] - Due to sluggish sales, slaughterhouses are reducing prices to increase volume, contributing to the downward price trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term, with prices expected to hover at low levels through mid-September [1] - As the double festival approaches at the end of the month, there may be a slight improvement in demand, which could support a price rebound, although any increase is likely to be limited due to the increased supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pork prices have reached a new low for the year in mid-September, primarily due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of lean pork in China has dropped to 17.15 yuan per kilogram, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - This represents a decrease of 3.50% compared to the beginning of the month and a significant decline of 32.44% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is currently no significant improvement in terminal demand, while upstream breeding operations are actively selling off stock [1] - Slaughterhouses are controlling inventory strictly, leading to an oversupply of pork [1] - The sluggish sales at slaughterhouses have resulted in price reductions to stimulate volume, causing prices to continue to decline [1] Future Outlook - The oversupply situation is expected to persist in the short term, with prices likely to hover at low levels in mid-September [1] - As the double festival approaches in late September, there may be a slight improvement in demand, which could support a price rebound; however, due to increased supply, any price increase is expected to be limited [1]

Group 1 - The poultry industry is experiencing a price recovery, with prices for fast, medium, and slow chickens rising by 39%, 36%, and 22% respectively from June lows, driven by supply clearance and demand recovery [1] - A specific company's yellow chicken business achieved a breakeven cost of 5.6 yuan per pound in August, marking a turnaround in monthly performance [1] - The pig farming market is facing increased supply pressure, leading to price declines, with a target of 2 million pigs to be marketed by 2025, representing a 54% growth [1] Group 2 - The cost of pig farming in August was reported at 6.3 yuan per pound, with the cost of piglets dropping below 280 yuan per head [1] - As of September 15, 2023, the livestock ETF (159867.SZ) rose by 0.87%, and the related index, the CSI Livestock Index, increased by 1.01% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Tiankang Biological, saw price increases of 2.62%, 1.95%, and 5.78% respectively [1] Group 3 - The pig farming industry is under pressure from declining prices due to supply release, with potential long-term risks from feed ingredient price fluctuations [3] - Major feed companies are expected to see significant sales growth in the first half of 2025, benefiting from a recovery in downstream farming volumes [3] - Haida Group reported a 26% year-on-year increase in feed sales, with a 40% increase in overseas sales, supporting its performance [3]

Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a volatile surge on September 15, with Delisi hitting the daily limit up [1] - Aonong Biological rose over 9%, while Tiankang Biological increased by more than 6% [1] - Other companies such as Lihua Stock, Jinxinnong, Shennong Group, and Haida Group also saw significant gains [1]

Core Insights - The monitoring of prices for 50 important production materials across 9 categories in the national circulation market indicates a mixed trend in prices for September 2025 compared to late August 2025 [1] Price Trends - Out of the 50 monitored products, 8 experienced price increases, while 40 saw price declines, and 2 remained stable [1] - The average national price for live pigs (external three yuan) is reported at 13.7 yuan per kilogram, showing no change compared to the previous period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Guangxi and Guangdong has significantly enhanced agricultural development, employment opportunities, and rural tourism, contributing to the economic upliftment of local communities in Guangxi [6][12][25]. Industry Support - The establishment of the Guangxi Longzhou Gan Niu Investment Group has created a sustainable dairy buffalo industry model, utilizing local resources like sugarcane leaves for feed, which also reduces environmental pollution [8][9]. - The company processes 60,000 tons of feed annually, involving over 1,500 local farmers and generating an income exceeding 14 million yuan for them [9]. Consumption Support - The "Zhuang Mountain Fresh" mango from Tianyang District has successfully penetrated the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area market, with significant sales growth due to improved branding and distribution channels [13][14]. - The establishment of multiple agricultural bases and partnerships with major retailers has led to over 1.2 billion yuan in sales for local agricultural products this year [14]. Labor Cooperation - The "Xiao Liang Send Workers" service in Long'an County has effectively connected displaced populations with job opportunities, facilitating over 60,000 flexible employment positions since 2020 [18][20]. - The initiative has helped generate approximately 25 million yuan in income for relocated families, ensuring their economic stability post-migration [18][20]. Cultural and Tourism Integration - The transformation of Mahai Village into a tourist destination has been driven by the integration of agriculture and tourism, significantly increasing local incomes through hospitality services [22][23]. - The village has become a model for rural tourism development, showcasing the potential of combining traditional agriculture with modern tourism practices [25].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the pork sector, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases [1] - Delisi, Aonong Biological, and Tiankang Biological reached their daily limit up, while Jinxinnong rose over 4% and Lihua shares increased by more than 3% [1] - Haida Group, Shennong Group, Dayu Biological, and Muyuan shares all saw gains exceeding 2% [1]