Core Viewpoint - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction revealed weak market demand, raising concerns about the overall interest in U.S. debt securities [1][2] Group 1: Auction Results - The U.S. Treasury issued $25 billion in long-term bonds with a winning yield of 4.813%, exceeding pre-auction market yields by over 2 basis points, indicating investors' demand for higher returns [1] - Following the auction results, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.829%, reflecting investor disappointment and a decline in bond prices [1] - This marks the third consecutive weak auction this week, following lackluster demand in the 3-year and 10-year bond auctions [1] Group 2: Investor Participation - Primary dealers, seen as market "backstop buyers," subscribed to 17.5% of the issuance, the highest since August 2024, indicating they are taking on more of the subscription when other investors show less interest [2] - Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, accounted for 59.5% of the auction, below the average of over 61% from the past three auctions [2] - Direct bidders, such as domestic pension funds, subscribed to 23%, slightly below recent averages [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The limited interest in the 30-year Treasury bonds is not surprising, as previous auctions in February, March, and May also faced weak demand due to the higher interest rate risk associated with long maturities [2] - The overall trend of weak demand across different maturities suggests that investors are dissatisfied with current Treasury yields, believing that fair value should be higher [2] - This situation poses challenges for the new administration, which is more focused on controlling federal borrowing costs, as weak demand may force the Treasury to issue bonds at higher rates, increasing government debt interest burdens [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the adjustment of the value-added tax policy on interest income from newly issued government bonds is a key measure for optimizing the tax system in response to market developments, balancing fiscal sustainability and market mechanism improvement [1][2][3] - The restoration of value-added tax on interest income from new government bonds is expected to expand fiscal revenue sources, addressing the fiscal balance pressure as tax revenue decreased by 1.2% while public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025 [1] - The adjustment aligns with the maturity of the bond market, which has reached a scale of 122 trillion yuan, and aims to create a fairer competitive environment by leveling the tax burden across different types of bonds, thus enhancing the overall vitality of the bond market [2] Group 2 - The policy change is anticipated to promote the optimization and rebalancing of capital allocation across markets, as the decrease in post-tax bond yields will highlight the comparative advantages of equity assets, potentially leading to a shift of risk preference funds from the bond market to sectors like banking and technology [3] - This adjustment is seen as a practical measure to address fiscal challenges while also serving as a long-term strategy to optimize the bond market ecosystem and promote efficient capital allocation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In July, all industry credit bonds declined, with an average net price change of -0.11%, and there was no obvious alpha. In the term dimension, there was negative alpha for Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years. In the sub - dimension, there was no alpha for commercial bank sub - debt [1][2][10]. - In July, the bond market generally declined. For interest - rate bonds, the yields of almost all interest - rate bonds increased, with the average yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, and local government bonds rising by 5BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively. For credit bonds, the yields of high - duration credit bond varieties increased significantly, with the average yield of 20 - year, implicitly rated AAA urban investment bonds rising by 14BP, the largest increase among credit bonds [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Each Variety Yield Panorama - Interest - rate bonds: In July, the yields of almost all interest - rate bonds increased. The average yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, and local government bonds rose by 5BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively [11]. - Credit bonds: High - duration credit bond varieties had a significant increase in yields. The 20 - year, implicitly rated AAA urban investment bonds had an average yield increase of 14BP, the largest among credit bonds [11]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - Overall industry credit bonds: In July, all industry credit bonds declined, with an average net price change of -0.11%, and there was no obvious alpha. The transportation, urban investment, and construction industries had the largest net price declines, with monthly drops of 0.15%, 0.14%, and 0.14% respectively. Real estate bonds had the smallest decline, with a net price drop of 0.05% [1][17]. - Real estate bonds: In July, AA+ - rated real - estate bonds had obvious negative alpha; public enterprise real - estate bonds had obvious positive alpha. The average net price decline of AA+ real - estate bonds was -0.22%, significantly higher than other real - estate bond varieties. The average increase of public enterprise bonds was 0.35%, while other types of real - estate bonds had a net price decline. The top - rising bonds were those of Longhu and Greentown, with net price increases of about 1.7% and 1.2% respectively; the top - falling bond was that of Guangzhou Hejing, with a net price drop of 13.8% [20]. - Urban investment bonds: In July, all regional urban investment bonds declined, with an average change of -0.14%. Guangxi's urban investment bonds had the most significant decline, with a monthly drop of 0.26%, showing obvious negative alpha. In terms of ratings, AA - rated urban investment bonds had negative alpha, with an average net price drop of 0.22%, significantly more than other - rated urban investment bonds [26]. - Financial bonds: In July, private - enterprise financial bonds had a significant net price decline, with an average monthly drop of 0.08%, the largest decline and showing negative alpha. In terms of ratings, AA+ - rated financial bonds had an average net price decline of 0.01%, significantly lower than the 0.08% of AAA - rated and 0.07% of AA - rated bonds. The top - rising bonds were 24 Wuxi Xinchuang PPN001 and 23 Chanrong 09, with net price increases of 1.65% and 1.62% respectively; the top - falling bond was 24 Guoxin Holdings MTN001B, with a net price drop of 1.08% [28]. 3. Term Alpha Tracking - In July, Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years had negative alpha. They declined by 0.95%, with a significantly larger decline than other term and interest - rate bond varieties. The reasons were that ultra - long Treasury bonds had a high duration leverage, and the increase in yield led to a more significant price decline. Also, the yield increase of Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was higher than that of other interest - rate bond varieties [2][36]. - Among long - term representative bonds, the 23 Sanxia K2, an ultra - long credit bond, had the largest decline in July, with a monthly change of -1.77% [40]. 4. Sub - Alpha Tracking - In July, there was no alpha for commercial bank sub - debt. Insurance company bonds and commercial bank sub - debt declined by 0.14% and 0.16% respectively, with similar declines and higher than the 0.06% decline of commercial bank bonds. In terms of yield changes, the yield increases of insurance company bonds and secondary capital bonds were generally higher than those of commercial bank ordinary bonds [2][42]. 5. July Public Bond Fund Ranking - In July, hybrid bond - type secondary funds led other types of public bond funds in average change. The average change of hybrid bond - type secondary funds was 0.86%, that of hybrid bond - type primary funds was 0.25%, that of short - term pure bond funds was 0.09%, and that of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was -0.03% [2]. - The top - five rising medium - and long - term pure bond funds in July were Chunhou Wenrong One - Year Fixed - Open, Fuguo Dingli Three - Month Fixed - Open Bond, etc. [56]. - The top - five rising short - term pure bond funds in July were Nanhua Ruiheng Medium - and Short - Term Bond A, Ping An 0 - 3 - Year Policy - Based Financial Bond A, etc. [57]. - The top - five rising hybrid bond - type primary funds in July were Guangda Medium - and High - Grade A, Tianhong Tianli E, etc. [58]. - The top - five rising hybrid bond - type secondary funds in July were Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One - Year A, Huashang Ruixin Regularly - Open, etc. [59].

Group 1 - The yield on UK 2-year government bonds increased by 6 basis points to 3.88% [1] - The yield on UK 10-year government bonds rose by 5.5 basis points to 4.588% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core purposes of the new bond VAT policy may include two aspects: unifying the bond market tax system and increasing government tax revenue to relieve fiscal pressure [2][15]. - The move to resume VAT collection on bonds may signal a gradual reduction in tax - incentives for the investment demand side in the bond and capital markets, and the reduction rhythm is affected by the maturity of asset categories and macro - economic and fiscal factors [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond VAT Adjustment Policy Interpretation - Since August 8, 2025, interest income from newly - issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. For new bonds, ordinary self - operating institutions and asset management products will be taxed at 6% and 3% respectively [1][14]. - The policy aims to unify the bond market tax system and increase government revenue. It may also indicate a gradual reduction in tax incentives in the bond and capital markets, with the reduction rhythm affected by asset category maturity and macro - economic and fiscal conditions [2][15]. 3.2 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Credit Bond Market 3.2.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - After interest income from interest - rate bonds loses the VAT exemption advantage, the relative value of credit bonds increases. The spread between self - operating departments' credit bonds and other bonds narrows by about 10BP, and the relative value of credit bonds may increase by 5 - 15BP for self - operating departments and 3 - 10BP for asset management products and public funds [3][20]. - The credit spread of credit bonds compared to government bonds may decline due to the increase in the benchmark rate of newly - issued government bonds. The new policy may attract more funds from local government bonds and financial bonds to credit bonds, and the market sentiment after the policy implementation will affect the timing of credit bond allocation [3][21]. 3.2.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - For public funds, although the VAT rate on bond interest income rises to 3%, their investment advantage in bonds still exists and may attract more funds into the credit bond market, bringing trading volume to sub - categories of credit bonds [6][29]. - For self - operating departments, with the VAT rate rising to 6%, they may increase credit bond allocation through funds, and pay more attention to urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [6][29]. - For other asset management institutions, with the VAT rate rising to 3%, they may invest in public funds or private asset management products and slightly increase the proportion of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [6][30]. 3.3 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Bank's Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds Market 3.3.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - In the short - term, due to the tax - exemption advantage of existing bonds, the demand for bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds in the secondary market will increase, and the yields of 5 - year tier - 2 capital bonds (AAA -) and 5 - year perpetual bonds (AAA -) will decline by 11.07BP and 11.44BP respectively. In the long - term, the policy may have little impact on bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds [7][32]. 3.3.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - Public funds still have the motivation to allocate high - liquidity bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and can improve portfolio liquidity through credit bond ETFs [8][35]. - Self - operating departments may increase the allocation of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and strengthen entrusted investment to reduce tax costs [8][35]. - Other asset management institutions may adopt a strategy of "shortening duration + exploring individual bonds" to deal with the tax policy change [8][36].

债券研究 债券深度报告 2025 年 08 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 ——日历看债系列之二 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 基本面的季节性及时点观察 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❖ 2024 年以来，债券市场进入低利率区间，交易盘把握收益率运行规律愈渐重 要，本篇重点探讨基本面的季节性规律。 ❖ 一、基本面的日历效应 ❖ 一季度：聚焦经济数据"开门红"与两会定调。（1）1-2 月经济数据近年来表 现均较强势，"开门红"验证概率较高，数据空窗期需要重点关注反映春节消 费、开复工情况的高频指标。年初银行信贷投放"开门红"成色也是市场博弈 的方向，主要通过票据利率观察。（2）3 月两会确定全年经济工作任务，关注 重点包括：GDP 目标、货币政策定调、财政赤字、消费、房地产、通 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in the yields of major term government bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield returning to 1.69% and a generally loose funding environment as the overnight rate is below 1.3% [1][5] - The closing prices of government bond futures mostly increased, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.03% to 119.380 yuan, the 10-year main contract up by 0.05% to 108.615 yuan, and the 5-year main contract also up by 0.05% to 105.830 yuan [1][3] - The interbank major interest rate bond yields decreased across the board, with the 10-year government bond active coupon yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.69% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.914% [1][2] Group 2 - The auction results for government bonds showed a weighted interest rate of 1.585% for a 3-year bond and 1.715% for a 7-year bond, with full bid-to-cover ratios of 3.27 and 5.36 respectively [3] - The trading market for non-financial credit bonds saw significant movements, with the top five gainers including bonds from companies like 德达 and 文蓝, while the top five losers included bonds from 万科 and 梁山 [4] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan for the day [5][6]

据了解，上证国企信用债指数系列从上海证券交易所上市的公司债和企业债中，选取由国有企业发行的 符合条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映相应国企信用债的整体表现。该指数以2016年12月30日为基日， 以100.0点为基点。 从债项评级分布来看，上证0-3年AAA国企信用债指数持仓100.00%为"AAA"级债券。 金融界8月7日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，上证0-3年AAA国企信用债指数 (上证0-3 AAA国企 债，950251)报136.72点。 数据统计显示，上证0-3年AAA国企信用债指数近一个月上涨0.15%，近三个月上涨0.65%，年至今上涨 1.18%。 资料显示，上证国企信用债指数系列样本每月调整一次，定期调整生效日为每月首个交易日，定期调整 数据截止日为生效日前一交易日。遇临时调整时，若样本发生摘牌等事件，视情况自事件生效之日起剔 除出指数；样本发生其他事件，参照计算与维护细则处理。 来源：金融界 ...

金融界8月7日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，上证0-3年地方国企信用债指数 (沪0-3地企债， 950266)报174.38点。 数据统计显示，上证0-3年地方国企信用债指数近一个月上涨0.17%，近三个月上涨0.72%，年至今上涨 1.36%。 据了解，上证地方国企信用债指数系列从上海证券交易所上市的公司债和企业债中，选取由地方国有企 业发行的符合条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映相应地方国企信用债的整体表现。该指数以2013年12月 31日为基日，以100.0点为基点。 从债项评级分布来看，上证0-3年地方国企信用债指数持仓8.37%为"AA"级债券，12.85%为"AA+"级债 券，0.00%为"AA-"级债券，78.78%为"AAA"级债券。 资料显示，上证地方国企信用债指数系列样本每月调整一次，定期调整生效日为每月首个交易日，定期 调整数据截止日为生效日前一交易日。遇临时调整时，若样本发生摘牌等事件，视情况自事件生效之日 起剔除出指数；样本发生其他事件，参照计算与维护细则处理。 来源：金融界 ...

2025年8月7日，上海清算所网站披露公告，为保证漳州市九龙江集团有限公司2024年度第二期中期票据 （债券简称：24九龙江MTN002，债券代码：102483535）付息工作的顺利进行，现将有关事宜公告。 本期债券发行金额为人民币10亿元，起息日为2024年8月16日，发行期限为5+N年，债项余额为人民币 10亿元，本计息期债项利率为2.43%，付息日为2025年8月16日。托管在银行间市场清算所股份有限公 司的债券，其付息资金由发行人在规定时间之前划付至指定收款账户后，由清算所在付息日划付至债券 持有人指定银行账户。债券持有人资金汇划路径变更应及时通知清算所，因未及时通知导致不能及时收 到资金的，发行人及清算所不承担损失。其他需说明事项无。 来源：金融界 ...