值得关注的是，1月23日，华侨城宣布副总裁倪明涛因为个人原因离职，且不再担任公司任何职务。离 职原因引人猜测。 导致倪明涛离职的原因之一，疑似是公司效益太差。根据华侨城财报，公司已连续四年亏损，根据2025 年前三季度财报，华侨城总营收为170.25亿元，同比下降41.95%；归母净利润为-43.67亿元，同比上升 85.76%，亏损进一步扩大，原高管团队是有责任的。 原因之二，疑似是新掌舵人上任后，不可能允许以前的情况继续。2025年9月华侨城前任董事长张振高 因年满63岁到龄卸任，刘凤喜同步离任总经理，来自中国建筑集团的吴秉琪接任总经理，2025年11月升 任董事长。吴秉琪于1993年进入华润，2022年升任华润置地总裁，2023年转至中国建筑担任副总经理， 一直在主导地产业务。 据悉，华侨城新一届董事会7名成员均无内部任职背景，此前已有多位高管调整，倪明涛的离职，或是 这场自上而下换血的延续，也该换了。 运营商财经网 章少霞/文 近期，老牌央企华侨城传来关键人事变动：集团副总裁倪明涛正式离职，这一消息距新任董事长吴秉琪 履新仅过去2个月。作为深耕华侨城8年的核心高管，倪明涛的离任引发行业热议，是受业绩压 ...

January 30, 2026 08:44 AM GMT 中国 | Asia Pacific 漫长的季节 房地产的慢着陆未来两年或步入尾声。预计政策取向依然是 小幅尝试防超调，而非大力刺激强逆转。房价或进一步调 整15%，明年下半年初步企稳。这一过程中，房地产对经济的 拖累虽然收敛，但仍显著制约着消费和通缩。 决策层或继续引导房地产进行调整，同时设置必要的"防护栏"以避免无序下 跌。近期市场多次短暂轮动至传统经济板块，反映出投资者在房价再次加速下行 后，对⬀策层重演"924"政策转向的期待。我们对此持更为谨慎的观点。全国两会 之后，我们预计⬀策层仅会在基本面较稳健的部分城市实施小规模的按揭补贴， 以提供适度托底和风险消化空间，同时让价格进行必要的调整。 明年下半年之后逐步企稳。房价方面，继去年下跌12% 后，今明两年或进一步下 跌8%和6%。对于一些房价仍偏高的高线城市，企稳时间或将从此前预期的明年上 半年推迟至明年下半年。房地产对名义GDP的拖累仍较为显著，但随着调整趋 缓，其拖累幅度也将收敛：预计将从去年的-2.3个百分点，收窄至今年的-1.7个百 分点以及明年的-1.3个百分点。当前房价的调整路径也符 ...

招商蛇口 2025 年全口径签约销售额达 1,906 亿元，在上海等 10 个城 市销售排名前三，验证了战略布局及产品竞争力。同时，公司积极推进 轻资产业务，物业服务稳固头部地位，非开发业务收入占比提升，有助 于平滑周期波动。 公司坚持谨慎聚焦策略，在上海、北京、深圳等高能级城市获取 40 多 宗地，总建筑面积超 400 万平方米，总地价超 900 亿元，为未来增长 奠定基础。同时，优化债务结构，年末平均融资成本行业领先，确保资 金安全。 尽管面临短期利润压力，招商蛇口仍保持盈利状态，通过全面管理体系 强化营销，优化债务结构，确保货币资金安全。公司高度重视股东回报， 未来三年现金分红比例不低于归母净利润的 40%。 公司对存在减值迹象的项目进行资产减值准备，2019 年至 2024 年共 计提 240-245 亿减值，以逐步释放亏损并提升资产质量。未来将继续采 取审慎态度，根据市场变化及时调整策略。 2025 年新货值占总货值的 50%左右，项目平均成本净利润率 （ROIC）达到 12%-13%。通过以销定投、以销定资策略，保持良好现 金状况，为后续高质量投资提供基础，优化资产负债结构。 Q&A 招商蛇口 2 ...

地产股重估拉开帷幕，后续怎么看？20260130 摘要 2026 年地产板块大概率向上，但当前政策尚未有实质性改变，财政态 度是关键，去库存和化解风险工作仍在研判阶段，需观察基本面是否展 现积极迹象。 一线城市房价走势需谨慎，虽有积极迹象但尚不能确认企稳，需等待三 四月份传统成交旺季验证，无强力政策或经济预期变化，过程可能不会 一帆风顺。 四季度主动基金全面减配 A 股开发商，深度减持保利、招商蛇口等，增 持港股开发商如华润置地、万象及贝壳，反映资金对博弈地产基本面及 政策风险意愿趋冷。 推荐关注存货充足、质量好的大票如华润、中海、招商蛇口，以及出租 质量高、周转快的标的如建发国际和滨江，新中控股及其母公司新城发 展，以及先发股份也值得关注。 新中控股转型为以商业为主导的轻资产运营模式，先发股份因稳定增长 前景受推荐，未来 2-3 年有望实现商业模式升级，带来戴维斯双击效应。 Q&A 2026 年地产股的整体趋势如何？ 四季度以来基金持仓情况如何变化？ 四季度主动基金持仓显示，A 股开发商全面减配，如保利、招商蛇口等主流公 司均被深度减持。而港股开发商则表现较好，如华润置地、万象及贝壳等持仓 提升明显。这反映 ...

1 月百强房企销售数据解读 20260131 摘要 房地产市场整体下行，头部房企销售额显著下降，前 50 强同比下降 15%，前 10 强门槛降幅达 30%，但部分企业如中海、金茂等在核心城 市新项目表现突出，实现单月业绩正增长。 预计 2026 年市场格局与 2025 年相似，千亿级房企数量维持在 10-12 家左右，深耕型中小房企将迎来第三轮崛起，尤其是在区域市场有产品 优势的民营房企，如四川邦泰、浙江星耀等。 民营房企崛起受益于市场体量、机制灵活和政策支持，以及对产品打磨 和现金流管理的重视，在区域深耕方面具有优势，财务策略审慎，自有 资金比例高。 甲乙一体化模式在房地产企业中广泛应用，通过省料总包降低成本、提 高效率和品质，成长型民营房企多有自有工程公司或固定合作方，便于 沟通和税务筹划。 房地产市场正从增量发展转向增量、存量并重，二手房市场占比提升， 核心城市达 60%-70%，全国 45%，库存和房价问题是关键，需政府调 控，新开工项目减少，库存压力仍存。 Q&A 2026 年 1 月百强房企的销售数据有哪些显著变化？ 2026 年 1 月百强房企的销售数据显示出一些显著变化。首先，前十强房企的 ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Trends and Company Insights Industry Overview - The real estate market in January 2026 saw a significant decline in sales, with the top 100 real estate companies experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%. However, the top 10 companies showed relative stability with an average decline of 18%, outperforming the overall average. Notably, China Resources and China Overseas achieved positive growth, while Poly experienced a slight decline [1][2]. - The industry is facing dual challenges of shrinking performance and insufficient land reserves. Some companies that have not acquired land in recent years are experiencing severe performance declines, and even existing land may not be economically viable for development [1][4]. Key Market Trends - In January 2026, the national land auction volume across 300 cities dropped by 90% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year, with transaction amounts decreasing by 60% year-on-year. This indicates a cautious investment attitude among real estate companies, with the land market's heat significantly lower than the same period last year [1][5]. - The new housing market is underperforming, with transaction volumes decreasing by 32% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year. Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen saw declines of 46% and 39%, respectively [1][7][8]. - The second-hand housing market showed a month-on-month increase of 16% and over 30% year-on-year, but prices continue to decline, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing price drops of 10%-15% over the past year [1][11]. Challenges Facing Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies are grappling with continuous performance shrinkage and insufficient land reserves. Some companies are facing year-on-year declines of 70%-80% or more. The lack of confidence among developers is expected to lead to a double-digit decline in new construction investment indicators [3][12]. - The overall market trend is expected to continue downward, with sales and prices likely to decrease, although the rate of decline in transaction volumes may narrow [3][12]. Regional Market Insights - In cities like Hangzhou and Nanjing, the real estate market has seen significant declines in absorption rates, with Nanjing's rate dropping to an unprecedented low of 2% in January 2026 despite discounts on available projects [10]. - In Beijing and Shanghai, some hotspots have shown signs of price stabilization in the second-hand market, attributed to reduced willingness to lower prices by sellers and the entry of bottom-fishing buyers. However, this does not indicate overall market stability [18]. Future Outlook - The expectation for 2026 is that there will be no strong stimulus policies introduced, with any local government measures likely to have limited impact. The overall judgment for 2026 remains cautious, anticipating continued declines in sales and prices [12][16]. - The supply of new housing is expected to increase in March 2026, but the overall market performance may still be disappointing compared to the previous year due to lower supply and insufficient policy support [15]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is currently in a challenging phase characterized by declining sales, cautious investment behavior, and a lack of viable land for development. The market outlook for 2026 remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued price declines and cautious consumer sentiment.

申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 【华鲁恒升】：国内化工品 "反内卷"政策陆续出台，行业格局确定性优化；低成本核心优势不断巩固，未来规划 清晰，成长路径确定性高，有望实现量价齐升。 2月申万宏源十大金股 首推 "铁三角"： 【贵州茅台】：市场化改革理顺产品、价格、渠道体系，夯实底 申万宏源2026年第一期十大金股组合表现亮眼，1月单月整体上涨16.89%。 其中7只A股平均涨幅17.37%，分别跑赢上证综指、沪深300指数13.61、15.72个百分点。 3只港股平均涨幅15.77%，跑赢恒生指数8.92个百分点。 2月申万宏源十大金股 首推 "铁三角"： 【贵州茅台】：市场化改革理顺产品、价格、渠道体系，夯实底部并打开长期成长空间。 春节临近且 i茅台拓宽消费者触达，动销有望超预期。 【帝尔激光】：公司在主业光伏领域保持较强竞争力，新技术升级提升价值量；先进封装 / 半导体等非光伏业务 迎放量拐点，优化盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. is projected to incur a net profit loss of approximately 82 billion yuan in 2025, following a loss of 49.48 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a total loss of 131.48 billion yuan over two years [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of approximately 82 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 49.48 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be a loss of about 80 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 45.39 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of approximately 6.89 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 4.17 yuan per share in the previous year [2]. Reasons for Loss - The significant decline in the settlement scale of real estate development projects and low gross profit margins are primary reasons for the losses. The profits from real estate development mainly correspond to projects sold in 2023 and 2024, with high land acquisition costs leading to a substantial decrease in total gross profit [2]. - Increased credit impairment and asset impairment provisions due to heightened business risk exposure [2]. - Overall losses in some operational businesses after deducting depreciation and amortization, along with losses from non-core financial investments [2]. - Prices of certain bulk asset transactions and equity transactions were below book value [2]. Operational Highlights - The company delivered 117,000 housing units during the reporting period, and the revenue from operational services remained stable [3]. - The company has actively promoted cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures in its development business, achieving a continuous decline in management expenses for two consecutive years [3]. - Despite these efforts, the company continues to face severe challenges, and operational performance is expected to remain under pressure [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to improve operations through strategic focus, standardized operations, and technological empowerment, optimizing business layout and structural adjustments to enhance development and operational capabilities across multiple scenarios [3]. - As of January 30, 2026, Vanke's total assets were 1,136.595 billion yuan, and net assets were 175.756 billion yuan, representing declines of 11.64% and 13.28% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The closing price of Vanke A shares was 4.88 yuan per share, with a total market value of 58.222 billion yuan [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Since 2026, the continuous improvement of the stock market is the result of the combined action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by profitability. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4710.00, 4711.00, 4699.80, and 4655.00 respectively, with price drops of - 56.60, - 63.00, - 61.60, and - 60.60 and percentage drops of - 1.19%, - 1.32%, - 1.29%, and - 1.29%. The trading volumes were 30941.00, 108273.00, 29303.00, and 10684.00 respectively, and the open interests were 40190.00, 186373.00, 79325.00, and 26756.00 respectively, with increases of 712.00, 1489.00, 3407.00, and 3479.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3068.20, 3074.00, 3080.00, and 3053.20 respectively, with price drops of - 51.40, - 51.20, - 48.40, and - 51.40 and percentage drops of - 1.65%, - 1.64%, - 1.55%, and - 1.66%. The trading volumes were 14721.00, 48327.00, 9614.00, and 4387.00 respectively, and the open interests were 16154.00, 70443.00, 26626.00, and 9143.00 respectively, with decreases of - 2163.00, - 3226.00, - 393.00, and - 81.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8377.20, 8362.40, 8300.00, and 8210.00 respectively, with price drops of - 166.40, - 176.60, - 191.20, and - 191.40 and percentage drops of - 1.95%, - 2.07%, - 2.25%, and - 2.28%. The trading volumes were 36443.00, 137793.00, 56729.00, and 17220.00 respectively, and the open interests were 46994.00, 163697.00, 100847.00, and 37921.00 respectively, with changes of 625.00, - 7265.00, - 13.00, and 2280.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8282.40, 8260.60, 8143.80, and 7996.60 respectively, with price drops of - 70.80, - 69.60, - 60.40, and - 55.80 and percentage drops of - 0.85%, - 0.84%, - 0.74%, and - 0.69%. The trading volumes were 41174.00, 167342.00, 47656.00, and 19670.00 respectively, and the open interests were 58272.00, 191798.00, 111274.00, and 47496.00 respectively, with changes of - 614.00, - 4571.00, - 482.00, and 2912.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were 1.00, 5.80, - 14.80, and - 21.80 respectively, with previous values of 9.40, 6.20, - 13.60, and - 22.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Points and Trading Data**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4706.34, 3066.50, 8370.52, and 8254.86 respectively, with percentage drops of - 1.00%, - 1.43%, - 1.73%, and - 0.93%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.79, 79.01, 328.95, and 364.92 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7505.65, 2222.33, 6004.97, and 5967.49 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry had a 0.39% increase, the raw materials industry had a - 6.32% decrease, the industrial industry had a - 0.26% decrease, the optional consumption industry had a - 1.04% decrease, the major consumption industry had a - 2.75% decrease, the medical and health industry had a - 1.42% decrease, the real estate and finance industry had a - 0.98% decrease, the information technology industry had a 0.19% increase, the telecommunications business industry had a 3.90% increase, and the public utilities industry had a 0.44% increase [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis for IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were 3.66, 4.66, - 6.54, and - 51.34 respectively, with previous two - day values of 20.73, 30.13, 17.73, and - 26.87 [1] - The previous values of the basis for IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.70, 7.50, 13.50, and - 13.30 respectively, with previous two - day values of 13.29, 19.49, 21.69, and - 2.31 [1] - The previous values of the basis for IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were 6.68, - 8.12, - 70.52, and - 160.52 respectively, with previous two - day values of 13.36, - 0.24, - 54.84, and - 143.84 [1] - The previous values of the basis for IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were 27.54, 5.74, - 111.06, and - 258.26 respectively, with previous two - day values of 19.19, - 3.21, - 132.61, and - 284.21 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the SSE Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4117.95, 14205.89, 8547.18, and 3346.36 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96%, - 0.66%, - 1.34%, and 1.27% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 27387.11, 53322.85, 6939.03, and 24538.81 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.08%, - 0.10%, - 0.43%, and 0.94% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The State Taxation Administration adjusted the criteria for determining the VAT threshold for natural persons. The threshold for each (daily) sale increased from 500 yuan to 1000 yuan, and 6 specific situations will directly apply the monthly sales threshold of 100,000 yuan [2] - This week, there are many important events in the global market. Domestically, the first annual report of 2025 in the Shanghai Stock Exchange will be released, multiple industrial conferences will be held, and China's foreign exchange and gold reserve data for January will be announced. Internationally, PMI data for January in many European and American countries, the US non - farm payrolls report will be released, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce interest rate decisions, the Japanese House of Representatives election will be held, and technology giants such as Google and Amazon will release their latest financial reports. Additionally, the CME will raise the trading margins for gold and silver futures, and the SHFE will follow suit. The "AI war" is intensifying [2] - US President Trump stated that the relationship between the US and Venezuela is good, and the two sides will "share" oil revenues. Regarding Cuba, he said that Cuba may seek negotiations with the US. Negotiations on Greenland have started and are basically agreed upon. He also mentioned that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement [2] - OPEC+ members agreed to maintain the policy of suspending production increases, keeping oil production unchanged in March. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stated that eight OPEC+ members reaffirmed their commitment to market stability, with a sound global economic outlook, healthy current oil market fundamentals, and low inventory levels [2] - The Fourth Session of the 14th Shanghai Municipal Political Consultative Conference will open on February 2nd. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" era, "high - end industry leadership", "low - altitude scenario commercialization", and "new AI business models" are hot topics among Shanghai CPPCC members [2] 3.6 Industry Information - In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the sales revenues of the household appliance retail industry (such as refrigerators), kitchenware and sanitary ware retail industry (such as gas stoves), and communication equipment retail industry (such as mobile phones) increased by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year - on - year respectively. In rural areas, the order volume of household appliances increased by 64% year - on - year, and the number of users increased by 38% [2] - In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry had a new order volume of 107.82 million deadweight tons, accounting for 69% of the global market, and the order backlog at the end of December was 274.42 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5% and accounting for 66.8% of the global market, reaching a new historical high [2] - In January, most domestic car companies reported year - on - year sales growth. Leapmotor delivered 32,059 vehicles, a 27% increase; Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles; NIO delivered 27,182 new vehicles, a 96.1% increase; Great Wall Motors sold 90,300 vehicles, an 11.59% increase; Seres' new energy vehicle sales reached 43,034, a 140.33% increase; GAC Group sold 116,600 vehicles, an 18.47% increase; Li Auto delivered 27,668 new vehicles, a decline of over 7% [2] - In January, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities was 12,905 yuan per square meter, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease and an 8.67% year - on - year decrease. In the new home market, high - end improved properties were launched in cities such as Chengdu, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, driving a structural month - on - month increase in the average price of new homes in 100 cities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]