Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report explores investment opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" from two dimensions: strategic directions indicated by planning suggestions and historical focus industries from previous five-year plans [1] - The three main policy lines of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with "Development" focusing on advanced manufacturing and new productivity, "Livelihood" emphasizing domestic demand expansion, and "Security" reinforcing national defense and key technology areas [1][2] - The report indicates that while certain industry themes may create long-term excess returns if performance continues to validate, the likelihood of sustained excess returns throughout the entire five-year planning cycle is low [3] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, breaking down economic and social development goals into three main lines: "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with 12 key tasks identified [2][8] - The "Development" line focuses on enhancing traditional industries, scaling new pillar industries, and ensuring supportive industries for high-quality growth, with a strong emphasis on technological self-reliance [9][10] - The "Livelihood" line aims to address issues related to population structure changes and economic development, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving residents' income levels to boost consumption in health, education, and elderly care sectors [11][12] - The "Security" line highlights the importance of national defense and ecological safety, with a focus on military modernization, key resource security, and the development of critical technologies [14][17] Group 3 - The investment guidance indicates that key themes and newly emphasized industries may not achieve significant excess returns over the entire five-year cycle, citing examples from previous plans where certain sectors underperformed [15][16] - The report notes that while industries like new energy vehicles have shown potential for long-term excess returns, the possibility of sustained excess returns throughout the five-year planning cycle remains limited due to over-optimistic pricing and cyclical nature of industries [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that by 2025, the domestic economic environment will experience significant changes, including the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [1][8][30] - The "scar effect" is showing signs of retreat, with improvements in consumer behavior and a rapid decline in accounts receivable growth for enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][20] - The trade conflict's impact on the domestic economy is diminishing, with a shift in export structure towards high value-added products and a reduction in the proportion of exports to the US [20][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures and debt clearance policies are crucial for addressing the stagnation in economic circulation, with a focus on enhancing corporate profitability and revitalizing operations [2][50] - The economic forecast indicates a "non-typical recovery" driven by domestic demand policies, with expectations of improved corporate profitability and investment recovery by 2026 [4][6] - The emphasis on reform in 2026 is seen as a critical period for accelerating economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the efficiency of the economic system [60][79] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of a unified national market and systemic reforms to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [63][84] - The focus on service industry development and the acceleration of institutional opening-up are expected to create significant investment opportunities in the coming years [86][87] - The modernization of the industrial system is prioritized, with a clear strategy for upgrading traditional industries and fostering new and future industries [67][73]

（文章来源：第一财经） 河南省发展和改革委员会、河南省财政厅近日发布通知，开展河南省先进制造业和现代服务业融合发展 区培育工作。通知明确培育目标，聚焦"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系，突出重点区域和关键环节，深化两业 链条延伸、相融相长、耦合共生，分年度分批次培育20个左右创新发展活跃、质量效益显著、生态体系 健全的两业融合发展区。两业融合发展区申报主体为县（市、区）和省级及以上开发区，区域主导产业 突出，申报时制造业增加值（营业收入）占比达30%以上，且县（市、区）上一年度地区生产总值超过 200亿元，开发区上一年度营业收入超过100亿元。通知还提出保障措施，省发展改革委、财政厅将综合 考虑产业规模、服务能级、辐射范围等因素，统筹利用省级服务业发展专项资金对两业融合发展区所在 县（市、区）和省级及以上开发区予以一次性奖励，用于支持两业融合发展区各项建设任务。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "reform" as a source of dividends for the economy, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to accelerate reform processes and enhance domestic demand policies [3][67][83] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8][21] - The article discusses the "non-typical recovery" of the economy, driven by improved consumer confidence and the effects of ongoing domestic demand policies, which are expected to lead to a recovery in investment growth and corporate profitability [4][5][55] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for a clear industrial adjustment strategy, focusing on advanced manufacturing as a backbone while upgrading traditional sectors and accelerating the opening of the service industry [67][74] - It points out that the structural changes in exports are evident, with a shift towards high value-added products and a decrease in low value-added goods, indicating a robust export resilience [21][22] - The article stresses the importance of addressing the "internal competition" within industries, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates policies aimed at enhancing corporate profitability and operational vitality [15][41][55]

Group 1 - The article highlights three significant changes in the domestic economic environment: the rapid retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new phase of "supply-side reform" framework [2][8][21] - The "scar effect" is reflected in the improvement of consumer behavior and the rapid decline in accounts receivable growth among enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for a rational understanding of the "macro-micro temperature difference," which has become a norm since 2022, affecting the economic transformation process in China [8][37] Group 2 - The year 2026 is positioned as a critical year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes to seize significant opportunities [3][67] - The article suggests that economic growth will require maintaining a basic growth rate and emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and service industry development [3][74] - Key areas for investment opportunities include the construction of a unified market, reforms related to social welfare, and accelerating green transformation [3][83][84] Group 3 - The article predicts a non-typical economic recovery driven by internal demand policies, which will help improve consumer confidence and investment growth [4][5] - External demand remains resilient, with a shift in export structure towards high-value-added products, indicating a strong competitive advantage [5][21] - The overall economic recovery is expected to follow a "front low and back high" rhythm, supported by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing internal demand policies [5][55]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to "seek dividends from reform" as a significant opportunity for investment, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [7][67] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8] - The "scar effect" is showing signs of retreat, evidenced by improvements in consumer behavior and a decrease in accounts receivable growth among enterprises [15][21] Group 2 - The economic recovery is characterized as "atypical," with a transition from "confidence building" to recovery, driven by deepening domestic demand policies and a reduction in the "crowding out effect" of debt [4][5] - Export resilience is expected to continue, with a shift in the structure of exports towards high-value-added products, despite a decrease in the share of exports to the US [21][22] - The focus on advanced manufacturing as a backbone and the upgrading of traditional sectors are highlighted as key strategies for economic adjustment [74][77] Group 3 - The 2026 year is anticipated to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development, with significant opportunities arising from accelerated reform processes [3][67] - The emphasis on "self-reliance" and "extraordinary measures to seize high ground" in technology modernization is crucial for supporting China's modernization efforts [77][83] - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified national market, social security system reforms, and financial and tax reforms, all aimed at enhancing economic resilience and sustainability [83][84]

Group 1: Economic Changes and Trends - In 2025, the domestic economy experienced three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new "supply-side reform" framework[2] - The "scar effect" has shown signs of retreat, with improvements in consumer traffic and prices of certain goods, as well as a rapid decline in accounts receivable growth for enterprises[2][25] - The export structure has been optimized, with a decrease of approximately 3.2 percentage points in exports to the U.S. to 11.4% and an increase in exports to Europe by about 0.7 percentage points to 17.2%[31] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Economic Recovery - The report emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures and debt clearance to restore corporate profitability and operational vitality[3][57] - The focus on developing the service sector is crucial for improving overall employment absorption capacity in society[3][57] - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes and expanding domestic demand policies[4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The economy is predicted to undergo a non-typical recovery, transitioning from "confidence building" to a "non-typical" recovery phase, with expectations of improved corporate profitability[5] - Domestic demand policies are expected to support consumption demand, while increased debt clearance efforts will alleviate the "crowding out effect" on investment funds[5] - The inflation trend is becoming increasingly important, with PPI showing an upward trend and CPI expected to improve, contributing to the recovery of corporate profitability[5]

制造业人力资源结构性短期 近年来，我国人力资源服务业实现长足发展。 截至2024年底，全国各类人力资源服务机构7.4万家，从业人员109万人。"十四五"时期，全行业年均为3亿人次劳动者提供就 业、择业和流动服务，为5000余万家次用人单位提供专业支持。 21世纪经济报道记者王峰 北京报道 近日，人力资源社会保障部印发通知，部署人力资源服务业与制造业融合发展试点工作。 本次试点确定了39个制造业基础较好，人力资源服务产业体系较为完备的城市，包括北上广深4个一线城市，南京、杭州、合 肥、武汉、长沙、哈尔滨等省会城市。 试点城市将聚焦智能制造、电子信息、新材料、新能源、生物技术等制造业重点领域，助力破解制约制造业发展的人力资源要 素供给短板，提升制造业人力资源开发利用水平。 人力资源社会保障部人力资源流动管理司有关负责人介绍，在服务制造业等实体经济过程中，形成了一批适应制造企业招聘用 工需求的人力资源服务产品、模式和解决方案，奠定了融合发展的良好基础。 不过，我国制造业也存在季节性、结构性缺工难题。 劳动经济学会就业促进专业委员会秘书长欧阳俊对21世纪经济报道表示，当前传统制造业、零售业、低端服务业受冲击导致岗 位 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights three major investment opportunities under the "14th Five-Year Plan": accelerating "technological self-reliance," promoting consumption, and constructing a unified national market [1] - The focus on "technological self-reliance" aims to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, with key investments in six areas: future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health [1] - The promotion of consumption includes significant investments in people's livelihoods to address aging population issues, with new growth points identified in the silver economy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and service consumption [1] Group 2 - The construction of a unified national market seeks to break down regional and industry barriers through "anti-involution," reforming pricing mechanisms, and enhancing ROE via mergers and acquisitions to address the low profitability of listed companies [1]

21世纪经济报道记者 陈思琦 深圳报道 继2001年上海、2014年北京后，深圳成为中国"APEC第三城"，将于2026年11月举办亚太经合组织第三十三次领导人非正式会议。 "举办APEC会议，将是深圳从'产业型城市'向'综合功能型城市'转型的重要节点，这一转型此前在上海已经完成。"上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院教授陈 宪说。 除了市场驱动的自主创新，深圳不同于其他城市的特点还在于移民文化。虽然深圳现在的移民规模没有二三十年前那么大，但始终是一个人口净流入城市， 移民带来了更多城市活力，也形成了务实的移民文化。 陈宪长期工作、生活于上海，近两年移居深圳。他近期出版著作《创新无限：深圳奇迹启示录》。 在观察深圳城市发展逻辑时，陈宪时常以其熟悉的上海 为参照系。 他在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时谈到，深圳比上海、北京更早探索市场经济，形成了以企业为创新主体的自主创新模式，截然不同于京沪的"大院大 所"模式，由此催生腾讯、比亚迪、大疆等一批头部科技企业，也构成了深圳如今强劲的城市竞争力。 陈宪观察到，上海从我国的传统工业重镇，到如今着力建设"五个中心"，已成为我国城市功能最齐全、实力最强大的城市之一；深圳借着AP ...