9月12日，瞭望智库与普华永道在北京联合举办《机遇之城2025》报告（以下简称《报告》）发布会 暨"从机遇之城看中国机遇"研讨会。会议汇聚了来自政、企、学、研各界的权威专家，共同解读一份覆 盖中国60座城市的综合评估报告，并就中国城市发展的未来路径进行深入研讨。 《报告》从经济实力、科技创新、消费活力、数智赋能等十个维度，对城市发展的活力与潜力进行了系 统评估。结果显示，上海、北京、深圳继续引领发展，但更多城市如常州、烟台、贵阳等，凭借在新能 源、海洋经济、大数据等细分领域的突出表现，走出了差异化的发展道路，呈现出"各美其美"的多元化 格局。 本次研讨会的背景尤为关键。7月召开的中央城市工作会议确立了城市发展从"量"的扩张转向"质"的提 升的总基调。与会专家的共识是，在房地产行业经历历史性深度调整、传统增长模式难以为继的当下， 中国城市必须重新锚定历史方位，通过科技创新、产业升级、精细治理和更高水平开放，培育新的经济 增长极。 （原标题：房地产进入深度调整期，中国城市如何寻找新增长极？） 当房地产的"黄金时代"落幕，土地财政的旧引擎轰鸣声渐弱，中国城市增长的下一章，该由什么来书 写？ 国家发展和改革委员会城市 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 09 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025 上半年房地产行业综述：行业 仍处于缩表进程，关注重点房企边际 改善—行业点评报告》-2025.9.10 《深圳政策调整点评：八个行政区限 购大幅放松，有望对金九银十形成支 撑—行业点评报告》-2025.9.8 《新房成交面积同环比下降，深圳购 房政策放松—行业周报》-2025.9.7 新房成交面积同环比下降，主动适应城市发展阶段新 变化 | ——行业周报 | | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S07905 ...

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.03 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The construction sector shows improvement with a significant increase in infrastructure workload in early September, with a year-on-year improvement in construction activity[6] Market Trends - The ELI index remains stable at -0.69%, indicating rising market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading[11] - Despite seasonal recovery in August financial data, new loan demand remains weak, posing risks to social financing growth and M2 supply[14] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.8% increase in transaction area in major cities compared to a -9.9% decline in August[6] Consumer Behavior - Passenger car retail sales in early September show a decline of 10.0% year-on-year, with average daily sales recorded at 43,483 units[21] - The consumer price index for key monitored vegetables is at 5.11 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase[38] Investment Insights - The operating rate for asphalt plants increased by 6.80 percentage points to 34.90%, indicating a recovery in infrastructure investment[26] - The average price of ordinary Portland cement is recorded at 272.80 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase[27] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in early September is at 3.80%, recovering from a previous decline[32] - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased to 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous week[33] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 196.1 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1.2645 trillion yuan[41] - The 10-year government bond yield increased slightly to 1.8650% from 1.8466% at the beginning of the week[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of real estate market improvements[48]

主动权益仓位高位震荡， ETF 资金结构性分化延续 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W37） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 金工点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com 量化市场追踪周报(2025W37)：主动权益仓位高位 震荡，ETF 资金结构性分化延续 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 主力/主动资金流向：主力主动净流出电新，净流入房地产和钢铁。主力 资金流：主力净流出电新、基础化工、机械等行业。（1）个 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift in market logic, moving from a focus solely on AI trends to a broader consideration of macroeconomic fundamentals and recovery [3][12][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed previous highs, while the TMT sector has not reached new highs, suggesting a market expansion into other sectors such as real estate, steel, and non-ferrous metals [3][12][17] - Historical comparisons are made to the market trends of 2020-2021, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying logic of market transitions rather than merely focusing on growth versus value styles [3][12][13] Group 2 - Recent data shows resilience in non-US exports and a recovery in profit margins within the midstream manufacturing sector, indicating a positive trend in China's economic activity [4][20][25] - In August 2025, China's export growth was 4.4%, primarily affected by a decline in exports to the US, while exports to the EU and ASEAN continued to improve [4][20][24] - The report notes a structural improvement in inflation data, with core CPI showing a rebound, suggesting a potential reversal of the capital outflow that has previously contributed to price declines [4][25][31] Group 3 - The report highlights an increased expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market sentiment shifting towards a more accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery [5][34][37] - Employment data in the US indicates rising risks, with significant downward revisions to non-farm payrolls and an increase in initial jobless claims, suggesting a cautious outlook for the labor market [5][34][36] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate both manufacturing and real estate investments, with historical trends indicating a rebound in these sectors following previous rate cuts [5][44][47] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the main drivers of market transitions are changes in underlying logic rather than traditional style shifts, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic recovery and global demand [6][51] - Key sectors identified for investment include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (lithium batteries, wind power equipment, engineering machinery), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [6][51] - The report also points to emerging opportunities in domestic consumption-related sectors such as food and beverage, tourism, and insurance, as profit recovery takes hold [6][51]

概念指数中，表现较强的有：恒生互联网（+7.6%）、恒生科技（+5.3%）； 表现较弱的有：恒生生物科技（-2.3%）、恒生消费（-0.4%）。 国信海外选股策略中，表现较强的是 ROE 策略全天候型（+11.0%）；表现较 弱的是自由现金流 30（+1.0%）。 24 个行业上涨，6 个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：商贸零售（+9.6%）、 计算机（+7.9%）、房地产（+6.8%）、有色金属（+6.5%）、传媒（+6.1%）； 跌幅居前的行业有：电力设备及新能源（-2.3%）、石油石化（-2.2%）、医 药（-1.1%）、国防军工（-1.1%）、家电（-0.4%）。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月14日 港股市场速览 优于大市 市场整体上行，互联网涨幅领先 股价表现：整体显著上行，互联网涨幅领先 本周，恒生指数+3.8%，恒生综指+4.1%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+4.5%） ＞小盘（恒生小型股+2.6%）＞中盘（恒生中型股+2.1%）。 估值水平：整体显著提升，行业分化较大 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+4.9%至 12.3x； 恒生综指估值+3.8%至 12.4x。 ...

Group 1 - The financial environment for ordinary families in 2025 is increasingly complex, characterized by stagnant wage growth, rising prices, declining bank interest rates, a sluggish real estate market, and volatile stock markets [1] - Cash flow is emphasized as the foundation of family financial management, ensuring liquidity is crucial for any investment strategy to succeed [3] Group 2 - Real estate is shifting from a core wealth growth channel to a more cautious investment approach, with a focus on self-occupation rather than speculative gains [4] - Families are advised to maintain emergency funds covering 6-12 months of living expenses, and to diversify investments in liquid assets and short-term financial products [5] Group 3 - The stock market and funds are highlighted as key tools for wealth appreciation, with a long-term investment strategy recommended rather than short-term speculation [6][7] - A diversified asset allocation is suggested, including a 10% allocation to gold for inflation protection and overseas assets to mitigate domestic market risks [7] Group 4 - The overall wealth management strategy for families in 2025 should focus on cash flow for living expenses, long-term investments in quality stocks or funds, and a balanced approach to real estate and alternative assets [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market has found a "slow bull" state, with trading volume fluctuating throughout the week from September 8 to 12, 2025 [1] - The market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery after a period of volatility since August 27, 2025 [1] Short-term Market Trends - The market is expected to continue its slow bull trend, with short-term fluctuations likely [4] - Historical analysis indicates that market sentiment indicators and industry rotation have not yet fully adjusted, suggesting continued volatility [4] - Current market sentiment indicators show that the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile has dropped to 65.7%, and trading volume has decreased by 37% since August 26, 2025 [4] Economic Indicators - Economic recovery remains weak, with August export growth slowing and credit growth rebounding [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating potential recovery in industrial profits [5] - Short-term liquidity is expected to remain loose, influenced by lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] Sector Performance - The A-share market has seen a divergence in performance among sectors, with small-cap stocks performing better [5] - Key sectors such as electronics, real estate, and agriculture have shown relatively strong performance [5] Industry Focus - In September, attention should be directed towards sectors including power equipment, communications, computers, electronics, automotive, and media [8] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to be a key focus due to ongoing industry trends and potential catalysts such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [8] Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into U.S. imported analog chips, indicating significant domestic market potential for these products [9][10] - Eight departments have issued a plan to promote the approval and road testing of intelligent connected vehicles, aiming for a target of approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025 [11] Financial Data Insights - Recent financial data indicates a potential shift of household deposits towards the stock market, with a year-on-year decrease in household deposits in August [12][13] - The M1 money supply has grown by 6.0% year-on-year, while M2 has remained stable at 8.8% [13] Upcoming Events - The release of China's economic performance data for August is scheduled for September 15, 2025, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [20] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is anticipated on September 18, 2025, with expectations of potential rate cuts [22]

（原标题：摩洛哥主办首届北非智能基础设施论坛） 摩运输与物流大臣卡尤指出，其部门正与大学和研究中心合作，开发符合 摩数字化转型的现代交通和物流技术解决方案，构建由人工智能驱动的多式联 运管理系统。 摩装备与水资源大臣巴拉卡在开幕式上表示，基础设施建设是摩转型的基 石，其部门正与合作伙伴密切协作，研发智能解决方案，以减少碳足迹，适应 气候变化，提供更具韧性、安全、可持续的基础设施。 据摩洛哥世界新闻网站9月10日报道，首届"北非智能基础设施论坛"周三 在拉巴特开幕。论坛围绕酒店业、房地产、体育和交通基础设施四个主题展 开，吸引120多位演讲者和800多名代表参加。 ...

说个反直觉的事儿，真能让我们体感变好的，是美联储即将发动的大放水？ 答案主要是在楼市上。 因为消费不仅取决于劳动性收入，还取决于资产性收入，你家里如果有1个亿，哪怕你一天班也不上，你花起钱来也会大手大脚。 而中国60%以上的家庭资产，都压在了房产上，前些年房价飞涨的时候，给我们制造了巨大的财富幻觉效应，让我们也跟着来了一波消费升级。 但自从2022年楼市拐头向下，消费市场也跟着疲软，国家出台了很多刺激政策，以旧换新、消费贷补贴，都是想把消费拉起来。 但如果楼市的趋势没有扭转，人们花起钱来就会感觉底气不足，道理很简单，因为人无远虑必有近忧，大多数人在花钱时，都会考虑未来面临的一些突发情 况，比如生病啊养老啊，只要自己的房子还值钱，以后还可以卖房对抗风险，可房价要是一直往下掉，就不得不省吃俭用提前攒钱，可见房产对于我们来 说，相当于发挥了像社保一样的兜底作用。 可问题恰恰就出在了这里，你的支出就是别人的收入，你花的钱变少了，别人赚的钱也就变少了，别人因此就更不敢花钱了，你也更赚不到钱了，这样就会 陷入一个恶性循环。 那些令人羡慕的高科技行业，虽然产值高利润高，也更能拉动GDP，但对人才的要求也高，能吸纳的就业有限 ...