宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 15 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 中期内影响外需的三重因素 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ 风险资产价格调整。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.25%，沪深 300 股指期货上 涨 0.04%；焦煤期货本周下跌 0.71%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.71%； 股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 1BP 至 1.18%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.64%，活跃十年国债期货本周上 涨 0.09%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.6.15） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | ...

新华社长沙6月15日电 特稿｜中国科技为非洲国家发展注入新动能 新华社记者梁子齐 周昊瑾 张玉洁 第四届中国—非洲经贸博览会12日至15日在中国湖南长沙举办。走进会展中心，记者看到，中国参展企 业的讲解员正在为前来观展的非洲客户介绍多年生稻技术，非洲客户频频点头并不时记下要点。 当前，中国科技持续赋能非洲产业升级，在生物科技、数字通信、人工智能等领域取得进展，为改善当 地人民生活并促进非洲国家现代化发展注入新动能。 共享种子芯片的"生命密码" 农网，即偏远农村网络覆盖。2024年底，马达加斯加梅纳贝农网EPC项目正式进入实施阶段。该项目负 责人高博表示，项目建成后，将帮助偏远乡村实现电话通信、网络社交，并带动移动支付、线上交易等 经济活动，进而带动偏远农村的社会进步和经济发展。项目首期将建设73个农网站点，预计网络覆盖 2340平方公里，惠及16.5万农村人口。 谈及未来的落地项目，坦桑尼亚农网项目负责人游晨奕告诉记者，坦桑尼亚偏远地区通信覆盖项目今年 刚开工。在保证网络通畅、建设运维简单的前提下，结合当地充足的光照时长，该项目将以太阳能作为 能源输入，推动降低设备能耗和运营成本。 破除沟通壁垒的"数字桥梁" ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月15日 港股市场速览 优于大市 大盘高位震荡，行业分化明显 本周，恒生指数涨 0.4%，恒生科技跌 0.9%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股 +4.5%）＞中盘（恒生中型股+3.9%）＞大盘（恒生大型股+0.2%）。 概念指数涨跌互现，涨幅居前的有：恒生创新药（+10.6%）、恒生高股息 （+3.2%）；跌幅居前的有：恒生汽车（-3.1%）。 港股通行业中，19个行业上涨，11个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：综合（+19.2%）、 医药（+8.5%）、国防军工（+8.1%）、有色金属（+6.6%）、电力设备及新 能源（+4.7%）；下跌的主要有：汽车（-4.4%）、食品饮料（-3.5%）、电 子（-2.0%）、家电（-1.9%）、消费者服务（-1.8%）。 资金强度：资金大幅流出汽车板块权重股 本周，资金总体流出港股通成分股，总体日均资金强度（日均涨跌 x 日均 成交量）为-8.0 亿港元/日，上周为+7.4 亿港元/日，近 4 周平均为+2.2 亿 港元/日；近 13 周为-0.3 亿港元/日。 分行业看，20 个行业资金流入，10 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有： 医药（+4.8 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]

1 估值通道 在市场处于相对均衡的稳态时，不少公司的估值会在一定范围内波动，为了更好地理解，我们可以把这个范围 定义成该公司在当时状态下的"估值通道"。 不同质地公司的估值通道并不相同， 青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 在个股的日常投研中，对企业价值的评估和对潜在估值走向的理解，是非常核心的工作，它既是业务研究环节 要回答的最后一个关键问题，也是投资决策环节要明晰的第一个关键信息。 但做好这个工作并不容易，其中最大的障碍是价值的非唯一性： 价值是人们在交易中为了确定更合理的交换 比而引入的参考标准，它不是先天存在的具有唯一性的客观实体，而是后天引入的建立在大量主观假设基础上 的虚拟信仰。 我们相信某标的有多少的价值，是因为我们相信输入的假设并认同背后的逻辑。但不同的投资人愿意相信的输 入假设并不相同，能够认同的逻辑也不相同；而且即使是同一个投资人，在不同时候研究同一家公司时，他认 可的输入假设可能也会发生巨大变化，导致他愿意相信的估值在不同时期也可能会表现出巨大差异。因此， 对某家上市公司的估值，天然就是会因人而异、因时而异，很容易波动 。 但在投资实践中，我们又非常需要一个自己认同的稳定自洽的估值体系，来指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 25th Shanxi International Beauty, Hairdressing, and Cosmetics Expo has opened, marking the launch of the "Shanxi Beauty Consumption Season," which aims to invigorate the beauty industry market in Shanxi [3][18]. Industry Overview - The expo features an unprecedented scale with an exhibition area of 20,000 square meters, showcasing over 2,000 brands and more than 600 well-known exhibitors [6]. - The event covers various sectors of the beauty industry, including traditional beauty services, skincare, makeup, medical aesthetics, and health management products [6]. Consumer Engagement - The Shanxi Beauty Consumption Season is part of the national "Service Consumption Season" initiative, supported by multiple government departments [10]. - During the event, 5,000 vouchers worth 500 yuan each will be distributed, totaling a discount of 2.5 million yuan, which can be used at 60 brand member enterprises [10]. Media Coverage - The event has received extensive media attention, with live broadcasts and reports from various media outlets, enhancing its visibility and consumer engagement [14]. Future Outlook - The president of the Shanxi Beauty, Hairdressing, and Cosmetics Association expressed optimism about the future of the beauty industry in Shanxi, highlighting the potential for market vitality and consumer interest [18]. - The beauty industry in Shanxi is rapidly developing, becoming the fourth largest service industry after real estate, automotive, and tourism [18].

多细胞生物的生命活动需要成千上万的基因在空间上有序的各种细胞类型中协调运作。要理解组织功能的基础，就需要剖析体内各种细胞和组织表型的遗传控制 机制。然而，一直是个重大挑战，传统方法要么只能测量基因表达情况 （单细胞策略） ，要么只能观察细胞形态 （显微成像） ，始终无法同时捕捉多个维度的 信息。 2025 年 6 月 12 日， 哈佛大学 庄小威 教授团队在国际顶尖学术期刊 Cell 上发表了题为： Perturb-Multimodal: A platform for pooled genetic screens with imaging and sequencing in intact mammalian tissue 的研究论文。 撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 该研究开发了一种名 为 Perturb-Multi 的新技术，将成像技术与测序技术结合，首次实现在哺乳动物整个组织中对数百个基因并行扰动，同步完成基因表达谱、 亚细胞形态和空间位置的三维解析。 通过成像技术，能够识别单个细胞中的扰动情况，同时测量其基因表达谱和亚细胞形态。利用单细胞测序技术，测量了对相同干扰的完整转录组反应。 研究团队应用 ...

Core Insights - A new computational tool named TWAVE has been developed by a team from Northwestern University, utilizing generative AI to extract key information from limited gene expression data and identify multi-gene combinations behind complex diseases [1][2] - The TWAVE model simulates gene expression under healthy and diseased states, linking changes in gene activity to phenotypic variations, and accurately pinpointing key gene changes that may trigger cellular state transitions [1][2] Group 1: Technology and Methodology - TWAVE focuses on gene expression levels rather than gene sequences, addressing the limitations of traditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that primarily identify single genes associated with specific traits [2] - The model was trained using clinical trial data to recognize expression profiles representing healthy or diseased states, enhancing its ability to identify disease-associated gene networks [2] - TWAVE circumvents privacy issues related to gene sequences and inherently incorporates environmental factors, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of gene-environment interactions [2] Group 2: Applications and Implications - Testing of TWAVE on various complex diseases demonstrated its capability to identify known pathogenic genes and discover new genes overlooked by existing methods [2] - The findings indicate that the same disease may arise from different gene combinations in different populations, providing a theoretical basis for personalized treatment based on individual genetic drivers [2][3] - The advancements in AI within the life sciences are facilitating a deeper understanding of disease mechanisms and supporting early diagnosis and personalized treatment, accelerating the arrival of the precision medicine era [3]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交 ...

Group 1 - The company has announced the cancellation of a special account for raised funds, transferring the remaining balance of RMB 3,962.27 to its general account for daily operational liquidity [4][6] - The total amount raised from the initial public offering (IPO) was RMB 186,463.34 million, with a net amount of RMB 159,551.73 million after deducting issuance costs [2][3] - The company had established a special account for the management and storage of raised funds, in compliance with regulatory requirements and signed a tripartite supervision agreement with the sponsor and the bank [3][4] Group 2 - The cancellation of the special account was conducted to streamline bank account management and reduce administrative costs [4] - The company has completed the necessary procedures for the cancellation of the special account, which also terminates the related supervision agreement [4][6] - The raised funds were subject to specific management protocols to protect investor interests, as outlined in various regulatory documents [3]