Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth of the private packaging industry in the Xishui region of Guizhou, which supports the local liquor production, particularly the production of sauce-flavored liquor, and emphasizes the collaboration between packaging companies and leading liquor enterprises. Group 1: Industry Growth - The Xishui region is becoming a significant hub for sauce-flavored liquor production, with a modernized supply chain supported by private packaging enterprises [1] - The local packaging industry is evolving into a robust supply chain that enhances the production capabilities of the liquor sector [1][11] Group 2: Company Performance - Guizhou Qihang Packaging Co., Ltd. has been closely serving Xijiu since its establishment in 2021, with 95% of its orders coming from this liquor company, projecting a revenue of 107 million yuan in 2024 and 130 million yuan in 2025 [5] - Junfeng Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. has improved efficiency by over 30% through smart upgrades, expanding its business from Xishui to the Sichuan-Chongqing region [6] Group 3: Collaboration and Strategy - The collaboration between private packaging companies and leading liquor enterprises has created a new model of deep integration and mutual growth [5] - The local packaging enterprises, including Guizhou Guixiang and Zhongcai Packaging, are responding to the provincial strategy to enhance local packaging rates, forming a collective effort in the packaging industry [9]

Group 1: Tariffs and Global Market Dynamics - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" continues to disrupt global capital markets, reflecting the interplay between major power competition and asset pricing [2][17] - The implementation of these tariffs by the Trump administration has led to significant inflationary pressures in the U.S., with household food costs rising and a technical bear market in U.S. stocks [2][17] - China's strategic response, including precise tariff adjustments and supply chain optimization, has stabilized its export share and accelerated high-end manufacturing [2][18] Group 2: Revaluation of Chinese Assets - The systematic revaluation of Chinese assets in 2025 is driven by deepening institutional reforms, technological breakthroughs, and an upgraded global role [3][19] - Institutional reforms are reshaping the capital market ecosystem, transitioning from a "scale-oriented" to a "quality-first" approach, enhancing policy consistency and attracting long-term capital [3][19] - Technological advancements, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing, are creating a closed loop of "technological breakthroughs—commercial realization—capital feedback," leading to a systemic increase in asset profitability [3][19][20] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of gold reached historical highs in 2025, reflecting a resurgence of "gold faith" in the capital market amid a restructuring of the global financial order [4][21] - The strength of gold is attributed to cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, with political influences on Federal Reserve decisions undermining the dollar's status as a global public good [4][21] - The rise of gold tokens and the structural differentiation in investor behavior highlight the contrasting logics of "certainty defense" versus "growth speculation" [4][21] Group 4: Class Stabilization Funds - The introduction of class stabilization funds in China represents a significant governance innovation aimed at redefining capital market functions and correcting market failures [5][22] - These funds are designed to mitigate risks associated with asset price volatility, providing a dual protective mechanism through substantial capital reserves and market interventions [5][22] - The timely actions of these funds have effectively restored investor confidence and shifted market sentiment from pessimism to rational value assessment [5][22] Group 5: Inclusivity in Capital Markets - The concept of "capital market inclusivity" emerged as a core consensus in 2025, facilitating a multi-dimensional breakthrough in the "technology-industry-finance" ecosystem [6][24] - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has enabled the acceptance of unprofitable hard-tech companies, aligning capital with new productive forces [6][24] - Regulatory clarity and market-oriented principles have balanced government intervention with effective market operations, enhancing the capital foundation for industrial upgrades [6][24] Group 6: ETF Market Growth - The ETF market in 2025 reached nearly 60 trillion yuan, becoming the largest in Asia and symbolizing a significant ecological transformation in capital markets [7][25] - The rise of ETFs reflects an evolution in market efficiency, with their low management fees making them accessible to younger and smaller investors [7][25] - ETFs have also played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations through strategic interventions by central financial authorities [7][25] Group 7: The Rise of "Han Wang" - The emergence of "Han Wang" as the new stock king in A-shares signifies a shift from consumption-driven to innovation-driven economic paradigms in China [8][27] - The rapid growth and profitability of Han Wang highlight the transition of the AI chip industry from technological challenges to commercial success [8][27] - This shift reflects a broader trend of capital markets transitioning from supporting traditional industries to empowering new productive forces [8][27] Group 8: Rare Earths as Strategic Assets - Rare earths have become a core focus in A-shares, driven by the convergence of resource revolutions and technological changes [9][29] - China's advancements in extraction technology and its dominance in global refining capacity underscore the strategic importance of rare earths in the tech revolution [9][29] - The complete industrial chain of rare earths positions China as a stabilizing force in key sectors like AI and renewable energy, enhancing its competitive edge [9][29][30] Group 9: Emotional Consumption Trends - "Emotional consumption" has emerged as a new mainline in A-share consumer sectors, reflecting a shift from material satisfaction to emotional value [10][30] - This trend is characterized by structural changes in consumer demand, with companies that resonate emotionally with consumers experiencing significant revenue growth [10][30] - The capital market's ability to capture this trend through differentiated valuation systems is crucial for the sustainable growth of the consumer sector [10][30] Group 10: Narrative Trading - "Narrative trading" has become a central symbol of ecological transformation in A-shares, intertwining behavioral finance with asset pricing [11][31] - This phenomenon has led to shifts in household asset allocation, with increased investments in thematic products driven by collective narratives [11][31] - The rise of narrative trading highlights the need for enhanced investor education to maintain market stability amid potential valuation bubbles [11][31]

在渠道端，公司将适度控制发货节奏，优化库存结构，确保渠道资金安全；在市场结构方面，年度内实 施停货、优化买赠政策、加强市场秩序管理等一系列措施，以稳定价格体系并提振渠道信心。公司表 示，相关调整在短期内对销售收入和发货量造成一定影响，但渠道库存质量、价格稳定性及分销结构已 出现改善，为后续恢复奠定基础。与此同时，水井坊仍持续投入品牌建设、终端拓展、产品创新及组织 能力提升。 水井坊在公告中强调，本年度业绩变化主要为行业周期与公司主动调整叠加的结果，公司认为现阶段结 构优化与渠道维护，符合行业回归价值逻辑，有助于为未来稳健发展奠定更坚实基础。 智通财经记者 | 秦李欣 在白酒行业进入深度调整阶段的背景下，水井坊2025年度经营表现出现明显回落。 1月20日，水井坊发布2025年度业绩预告。经财务部门初步测算，公司预计2025年度公司实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为39,185万元，较上年同期预计减少94,918万元，同比下降71%；预计实现营业收 入303,776万元，预计减少217,900万元，同比下降42%。 对于业绩下滑原因，水井坊在公告中表示，2025年白酒行业在宏观经济周期、产业调整周期与政策调整 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the "Spring Excitement" in the snack sector, indicating a historical high relative win rate of 70% for the food and beverage sector in the 40 days leading up to the Spring Festival [7][16] - The report emphasizes that the "Spring Excitement" is not solely dependent on the annual beta of the food and beverage sector, as structural opportunities still exist despite a long-term adjustment period since 2021 [7][16] - Key catalysts for the upcoming Spring Festival include concentrated demand for gifts and gatherings, which leads to more planned channel stocking, creating a positive feedback loop of expectations and validations [7][16][28] Group 2 - In December, the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 7.5 percentage points, with a decline of 5.2%, ranking last among 31 primary industries [7][61] - The report notes a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and soft drinks showing gains while liquor and beer experienced declines [7][61][64] - The absolute and relative valuations of the food and beverage sector are at their lowest since 2010, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][61][64] Group 3 - The report tracks the recovery of consumer confidence, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, showing improvement from the previous month [7][63] - It highlights that the liquor sector is facing weak demand and declining prices, with the price adjustments for premium liquor nearing levels seen between 2011 and 2015 [7][63][64] - The report identifies structural differentiation in costs, with some packaging materials and agricultural products experiencing price increases [7][63][64] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include a focus on liquor stocks that have undergone a four-year adjustment period, with potential for a "valuation + performance" double bottom [7][64] - For consumer goods, the report anticipates a moderate increase in industry prices in 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Anjuke Foods, Qianhe Flavor, and Eastroc Beverage [7][64] - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will provide a favorable environment for growth narratives, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and certain chain formats [7][64]

进入1月下旬，大消费板块业绩"利空"也相继靴子落地。就在前一天，水井坊（600779）预告年度业 绩，预计2025年营业收入同比下降42%。但预告次日，水井坊股价仅小幅调整，侧面反映出：行业悲观 现状已充分反映到前期的深度调整中。再结合白酒龙头贵州茅台（600519），近期发布市场化运营方 案，发力线上直营，致力于让更多互联网消费者买到1499元的飞天茅台酒。龙头的主动求变对行业的带 动作用值得期待。 1月20日（周二），国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委表示"将研究制定出台2026年一2030年扩大内需战略 实施方案"，还提到"正在研究制定稳岗扩容体制行动和城乡居民增收计划"，以及"将研究制定全国统一 大市场建设条例"。从"战略实施方案"到"居民增收计划"再到"统一大市场"，政策着手供给和需求两 端，，目的就是改善供给端的结构不均衡，并且增强居民的消费能力。 1月20日，大消费板块逆市反弹，房地产、港股消费涨幅领先，洋河股份（002304）、燕京啤酒 （000729）涨超2%。投资者可以左侧分批布局相关行业主题ETF，把握底部贝塔修复机会： 食品ETF华夏（159151.SZ），跟踪中证全指食品指数，完全不含白酒 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 20 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：资金交易情绪分化 1 仇文竹 今日早参 | 2026 年 1 月 20 日 上周前半周，A 股市场成交额放量提升至 3 万亿之上，但下半周政策逆周期 调节力度增加，A 股市场有所回调，我们提供以下观察：1）资金情绪分化， 杠杆资金、个人持仓占比较高的 ETF 仍在净流入市场，融资活跃度仍在 11% 以上，但机构持仓占比较高的宽基 ETF 大幅净流入，其中汇金持仓占比较高 的 ETF 净流出约 1351 亿元；2）此外，考虑到市场成交额表现，我们统计 A 股成交额放量突破后市场表现，我们认为市场放量后，短期市场情绪仍偏 高，市场走势震荡，后续若有基本面、流动性的催化，A 股整体走势或向 上，聚焦到行业，放量后持续上涨的行业多为存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Shui Jing Fang and the Temple of Heaven aims to celebrate the New Year by merging over 600 years of cultural heritage and creating a unique ceremonial experience through the launch of a special wine product [1][10][18]. Group 1: Cultural Significance - Drinking wine during the New Year is a deeply rooted tradition in Chinese culture, symbolizing family reunion and the celebration of good fortune [3][4]. - The Temple of Heaven has historically served as a site for significant rituals, including over 650 sacrificial ceremonies, representing the collective wishes for a bountiful harvest [6]. - Shui Jing Fang, established in Chengdu, has been producing high-quality wine for over 600 years, embodying the essence of local culture and celebrations [9][20]. Group 2: Product Launch and Marketing Strategy - The new product, a limited edition wine, is available in two sizes: a 2026ml large bottle and a 606ml gift box, symbolizing the dual celebration of the Temple's anniversary and the New Year [12][16]. - The marketing campaign features actor Tony Leung as a brand ambassador, inviting consumers to participate in a nationwide celebration of good fortune through interactive promotions [16][17]. - The initiative includes a "Fortune First Cup" concept, encouraging consumers to engage with the brand and share their celebratory moments, enhancing emotional connections [10][18][22]. Group 3: Brand Positioning and Consumer Engagement - Shui Jing Fang positions itself as a premium choice for celebrating important life events, aiming to deepen its brand message of "drinking fine wine to celebrate good things" [18][20]. - The brand emphasizes the emotional significance of wine in social gatherings, responding to consumer desires for meaningful expressions of sentiment during celebrations [20][22]. - The campaign seeks to transform traditional wine consumption into a culturally resonant and emotionally engaging ritual, reinforcing the brand's relevance in modern consumer life [18][22].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced significant fluctuations, dropping below 4100 points and later recovering slightly, with a maximum decline of over 0.8% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.83% by the close of the morning session [4] Market Influences - Concerns over the performance of US markets following the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday contributed to negative sentiment in the Asia-Pacific markets [2] - A report indicated that the US will impose a 10% tariff on goods from several European countries starting February 1, which added to market anxiety [2] - A notable decline in market liquidity was observed, with the A-share market's financing balance decreasing by 8.5 billion yuan to 27,059 billion yuan as of January 19 [2] Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in beauty care, food processing, and liquor sectors [6] - The stock of Pop Mart surged after announcing a share buyback of approximately 251 million HKD, positively impacting market sentiment towards new consumption [8] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption were highlighted, including plans to enhance service consumption and address supply-demand imbalances [8][9] AI Sector Activity - The AI for Science (AI4S) concept saw active trading, with leading stocks like Zhizhi New Materials rising over 17% [11] - Analysts noted that advancements in AI model capabilities are accelerating the commercialization of AI applications, particularly in scientific research [11] - The competition among major AI model providers for market share is expected to intensify, creating growth opportunities across various sectors [11]

大消费活跃 一是当地时间周一，美股因马丁·路德·金纪念日休市，周二恢复正常交易。美股股指期货今天大跌，市场对周二美股表现产生担忧情绪，今天上午亚太股 市多数表现不佳。 消息面上，新华社报道，美国总统特朗普17日在社交媒体上发文，宣布美国将从2月1日起对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商 品加征10%关税。 二是市场资金面的变化。首先是从1月15日以来，大盘成交额快速萎缩。其次是融资余额结束10连增，数据显示，截至1月19日，A股市场融资余额报 27059亿元，较前一日减少85亿元。2026年以来，截至1月16日，A股市场融资余额已连续10个交易日增长。此外，近期多只宽基ETF持续放量，包括沪深 300ETF华泰柏瑞（510300）、上证50ETF（510050）、科创50ETF易方达（588080）、沪深300ETF易方达（510310）等。 三是商业航天概念降温。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.3%，深证成指下跌1.22%，创业板指下跌1.83%。 今天上午，指数明显波动。上证指数盘中一度跌破4100点，最大跌超0.8%，之后迎来震荡修复，跌幅收窄。盘面上，科技股回调，算力产业链大跌。大 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced significant volatility, dropping below 4100 points with a maximum decline of over 0.8%, before narrowing its losses [1] - The technology sector faced a pullback, particularly in the computing industry chain, while sectors such as consumer goods, high-dividend assets, and chemicals saw gains [1] Market Fluctuation Reasons - The U.S. stock market was closed on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, leading to concerns about its performance upon reopening, which negatively impacted the Asia-Pacific markets [2] - A notable decrease in market liquidity was observed, with the A-share market's financing balance reported at 27,059 billion yuan, down 8.5 billion yuan from the previous day, ending a 10-day increase [2] - The commercial aerospace concept has cooled down, contributing to the overall market decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.22%, and ChiNext Index down 1.83% [3] Consumer Sector Activity - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in beauty care, food processing, and liquor manufacturing [6] - The stock of Pop Mart surged, positively influencing the new consumption sector. On January 19, Pop Mart announced a repurchase of 1.4 million shares for approximately 251 million HKD, with prices ranging from 177.7 HKD to 181.2 HKD per share [7] - Recent favorable policies have been released, including a meeting on January 16 focused on boosting consumption and a commitment to expand domestic demand [8] - Analysts suggest that the consumer sector is in a phase of "policy catalysis + peak season drive," with opportunities in essential and discretionary consumption expected to continue improving [9] AI for Science Sector - The AI for Science (AI4S) concept saw active performance, with leading stocks like Zhizhi New Materials rising over 17%, alongside significant gains in other related stocks [11] - Analysts from CITIC Securities noted that advancements in model capabilities and cost reductions are accelerating the commercialization of AI applications [11] - Open Source Securities highlighted the competitive landscape among major AI model companies, suggesting that the commercialization of AI applications could open up growth opportunities across various sectors [11]