Core Viewpoint - 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to factors such as a weak dollar, a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and strong demand driven by electrification and AI power infrastructure [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A weak dollar and the U.S. interest rate cut cycle are beneficial for metals [1] - Continuous supply tightness for copper and aluminum is noted [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The real estate and consumer sectors are experiencing weakness [1] - Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are becoming more balanced, although recent execution has been weak [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The firm prefers aluminum stocks as alternative investments for AI power supply [1] - A "buy" outlook is maintained for gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - Coal is viewed neutrally, while solar and construction materials (like steel) are seen negatively due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 5: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

现货升水格局延续 铜价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-14 期货行情： 2026-01-13，沪铜主力合约开于 104600元/吨，收于 102290元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 103,780元/吨，收于 103,540 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为贴水30元至升水150元/吨，均价为升水60元/吨，与昨 日持平。电解铜现货价格区间在101920-103100元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约呈现"V型"走势，开盘自102860元/吨下行 至102100元附近后反弹，盘中触及103700元高点，最终收于103160元/吨。隔月Contango价差在430-200元/吨之间， 当月进口亏损约1680-1930元/吨。市场方面，早间平水铜报价贴水50元至平水，好铜金川大板因货源紧张报升水150 元。金冠、中金等品牌成交于贴水50元至平水，湿法铜贴水50元成交，随后豫光报价上调至贴水20元，祥光、鲁 方以升水50-80元成交。午后价格小幅上行，中条山、豫光等按 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前期回顾 2 宏观面 3 基本面 4 市场结构 5 展望 THEFT DAYUE FUTURES 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 铜价突破10万大关 关注后期供需博弈 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 í 前期回顾 行情回顾 DAYUE FUTURES 二、宏观面 PMI 美国CPI: 低位有所回升，11月CPI 2.7% ZERE FRE DAYUE FUTURES 三、基本面 供需平衡: 国际铜业研究组织（ICSG）表示，2025全球铜市场紧平衡， 2026或短缺15万吨~30万吨？ 供给矿山产量 供给港口库存 供给矿山新增产量 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 埃斯孔迪达 | 100 | -30 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's metal and mining sector has shown strong performance since the beginning of 2026, continuing the upward trend from 2025, with significant contributions from gold and copper stocks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the Hong Kong metal and mining sector index rose by 1.16%, closing at 3712.044 points [1][2]. - Leading stocks in the sector, such as Zijin Mining, China Gold International, Shandong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper, have seen notable price increases, with Zijin Mining up 2.39% to HKD 40.22 and China Gold International up 7.36% to HKD 179.40 [1][2]. Group 2: Gold and Copper Market Dynamics - Gold stocks are benefiting from their safe-haven status and expectations of interest rate cuts, while copper stocks are gaining from supply shortages and increased industrial demand [5][6]. - On January 12, 2026, spot gold prices reached a historical high of USD 4630.21 per ounce, contributing to the rise in Hong Kong gold stocks [5][6]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Supply-Demand Factors - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from USD 11,525 per ton to USD 12,750 per ton, citing low copper inventories outside the U.S. [6]. - The copper market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with projections indicating a global refined copper production of 26.9 million tons in 2026, leading to a market shortfall of 308,000 tons [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The strong performance of mining stocks is attributed to rising geopolitical risks, imbalances in commodity supply and demand, and shifts in global monetary policy [7][8]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade issues are driving up demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while industrial metals are supported by robust demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals is running at a low level, and the domestic copper ore supply is still tight, with relatively strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, as copper prices and the prices of smelting by - products such as sulfuric acid are all at high levels, smelters are still relatively active in production. It is reported that the production schedule in January is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. On the demand side, the downstream procurement sentiment is still cautious due to high copper prices, and the growth of new downstream orders is limited due to the off - season, so the trading volume in the spot market is still light, and industrial inventories are accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply increase and cautious demand, with social inventories accumulating. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.55, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0087, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 102,290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,510.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,133.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 172,960.00 lots, a decrease of 9,731.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 75,925.00 lots, a decrease of 8,758.00 lots. The LME copper inventory was 137,225.00 tons, a decrease of 1,750.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543.00 tons, an increase of 35,201.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 22,075.00 tons, a decrease of 1,550.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 122,127.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 725.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 102,315.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 890.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 38.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.00 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 220.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 785.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 64.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.37 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 45.41 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.43 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 92,580.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 93,280.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper was 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee for blister copper was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000.00 tons, a decrease of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 69,490.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 84,650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 78,590.90 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.20 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 215,000.00 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 27.16%, an increase of 0.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.25%, an increase of 0.32%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 33.85%, an increase of 0.0413%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.55, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, actions to rejuvenate traditional industries, "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, and actions to develop and expand emerging industries and create new driving forces will be implemented. Focus on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G to strengthen technological research, product development, enterprise cultivation, and ecological construction. The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell responded that this move is unprecedented and should be viewed in the context of the continuous threats from the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve, aiming to further pressure him on the issue of interest rate cuts. The Ministry of Commerce reported on the progress of consultations on the China - EU electric vehicle case. The EU will issue a "Guidance Document on Submitting Price Commitment Applications" and confirm that it will adhere to the principle of non - discrimination, apply the same legal standards to each price commitment application in accordance with relevant WTO rules, and conduct evaluations in an objective and fair manner. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued a statement saying that it will encourage and support the involved enterprises to make full use of the consultation results and strive for their export rights to the EU by applying for price commitments. The new collective bargaining at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to continued production disruptions caused by strikes. The union said in a statement that the labor department has notified them that the company will no longer have union emergency personnel to maintain facility operations because the company "failed to meet legal requirements and submitted documents late" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for certain end - products (such as home appliances and new energy vehicles) will continue in 2026. TC is still at a low level, and mine - end supply remains tight. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, while paying attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,910 yuan/ton and closed at 103,800 yuan/ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 104,500 yuan/ton and closed at 103,450 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a discount of 30 yuan to a premium of 150 yuan per ton against the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 60 yuan, a 105 - yuan increase from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 102,870 to 103,600 yuan/ton. As the delivery approaches, the premium pattern is expected to continue, but further upward movement is limited by downstream acceptance and warehouse receipt declaration [2]. Important Information Summary Geopolitical Aspect - Trump stated that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US. Iran is prepared for all possibilities. The UK and Germany are leading European countries to discuss deploying troops in Greenland [3]. Mine End - Lundin Mining plans to invest $150 million to upgrade its Caserones copper - molybdenum mine, extending its operation until 2039. In November, Codelco's copper production decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons, Escondida's production dropped by 12.8% to 94,400 tons, and Collahuasi's production increased by 2.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory first increased and then decreased to 138,975 tons, a two - month low. SHFE copper inventory increased by 24.22% to 180,543 tons, a nine - month high. New York copper inventory continued to rise. Pan Pacific Copper proposed a 2026 copper premium of $330 per ton to Japanese customers, due to a significant decline in TC/RC and concerns about US tariffs [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a 1.01 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 28.54 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 56.58%, a 2.37 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 12.73 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, but some orders were released when prices briefly declined. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 58.83%, and that of copper cable enterprises will rise to 56.88% [6][7]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 137,225 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 293,400 tons, a 19,600 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: Sell put options [8].

Group 1 - The copper metal sector experienced a significant upward movement on January 13, with Hai Liang Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit increase [2] - Other companies such as Xin Jin Lu, Xi Ye Co., Bai Yin You Se, Xing Ye Yin Xi, and Jiangxi Copper also saw notable gains [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives investment ratings and trend outlooks for each commodity [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**:避险情绪回升，趋势强度为1 [2][5] - **Silver**:快速拉升，趋势强度为1 [2][5] - **Platinum**:窄幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][26] - **Palladium**:区间震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][26] Base Metals - **Copper**:现货走强，支撑价格，趋势强度为1 [2][8] - **Zinc**:震荡偏强，趋势强度为1 [2][12] - **Lead**:LME库存减少，支撑价格，趋势强度为0 [2][15] - **Tin**:震荡走强，趋势强度为1 [2][17] - **Aluminum**:偏强运行，趋势强度为1 [2][24] - **Alumina**:逢高寻卖点，趋势强度为0 [2][24] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**:强于电解铝，趋势强度为1 [2][24] - **Nickel**:产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行，趋势强度为0 [2][30] - **Stainless Steel**:镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策，趋势强度为0 [2][31] Energy - **Crude Oil**:未提及具体观点，但原油价格上涨对部分化工品有支撑作用 [65][68] - **Fuel Oil**:弱势延续，下方仍有支撑，趋势强度为0 [2][54] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**:转入震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹，趋势强度为0 [2][54] Chemicals - **Para-Xylene (PX)**:单边高位震荡市，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **PTA**:多PX空PTA，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **MEG**:低位反弹，估值下方空间有限，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Rubber**:宽幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**:上方压力逐步增加，趋势强度为0 [2][76] - **LLDPE**:标品排产部分回切，区域现货补空延续，趋势强度为0 [2][79] - **PP**:下游抢出口支撑丙烯，PP成本支撑偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][82] - **Caustic Soda**:偏弱震荡，趋势强度为 -1 [2][85] - **Pulp**:宽幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][90] - **Glass**:原片价格平稳，趋势强度为0 [2][95] - **Methanol**:高位震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][99] - **Urea**:短期回调，中期偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][104] - **Styrene**:短期震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][107] - **Soda Ash**:现货市场变化不大，趋势强度为0 [2][111] - **LPG**:短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][115] - **Propylene**:现货供需收紧，趋势偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][116] - **PVC**:偏弱震荡，趋势强度为 -1 [2][124] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**:报告利空落地，原油反弹推涨油脂，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Soybean Oil**:美豆动能有限，单边区间为主，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Soybean Meal**:USDA报告偏空，或跟随美豆回调，趋势强度为 -1 [2][169] - **Soybean**:USDA报告影响，或调整震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][169] - **Corn**:关注现货，趋势强度为0 [2][172] - **Sugar**:区间整理，趋势强度为0 [2][176] - **Cotton**:延续调整态势，趋势强度为0 [2][181] - **Egg**:现货盈利，远月情绪转弱，趋势强度为0 [2][187] - **Live Pig**:需求存负反馈，供应预期增量，趋势强度为 -1 [2][190] - **Peanut**:震荡运行，趋势强度为0 [2][193] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**:关注开舱指引；04轻仓试空，趋势强度为0 [2][130] Fibers - **Short Fiber**:震荡偏强，多TA空PF持有，趋势强度为0 [2][147] - **Bottle Chip**:震荡偏强，月差正套持有，趋势强度为0 [2][147] Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**:逢高布空，趋势强度为 -1 [2][150] Others - **Log**:震荡反复，趋势强度为0 [2][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, providing insights into their market trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies. For instance, it mentions that the export tax - rebate policy adjustment will lead to a "rush - to - export" phenomenon in the lithium carbonate and shipping industries, while the US Department of Justice's investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may cause market fluctuations [7][8][150]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment is rising, with the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closing at 1,026.28 yuan, up 1.97% [18]. - Silver: Prices are rising rapidly, with the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closing at 20,957 yuan, up 11.92% [18]. Copper - Spot prices are strengthening, supporting the price. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,800 yuan, up 2.36% [21]. Zinc - The market is oscillating strongly. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,175 yuan, up 0.86% [24]. Lead - A decrease in LME inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan, up 0.46% [27]. Tin - The market is oscillating upwards. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 376,920 yuan, up 6.92% [30]. Aluminum - The market is running strongly. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,650 yuan, up 1.31% [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: Narrow - range oscillation. The platinum futures 2606 contract closed at 622.80 yuan, up 3.83% [38]. - Palladium: Range - bound oscillation. The palladium futures 2606 contract closed at 505.10 yuan, up 1.21% [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 144,200 yuan, up 3.6% [43]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel - iron raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of a "rush - to - export", attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand after a significant price increase. The 2601 contract closed at 146,000 yuan, up 5.0% [48]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical factors, prices are at a one - month high. The front - month ICE Brent contract closed at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 2.18% [79]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: Unilateral high - level oscillation. The PX main contract closed at 7,308 yuan, up 0.97% [76]. - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PTA main contract closed at 5,142 yuan, up 0.67% [76]. - MEG: Low - level rebound, with limited downward valuation space. The MEG main contract closed at 3,880 yuan, up 0.36% [76]. Rubber - Wide - range oscillation. The rubber main contract closed at a price not specified in the report [84]. Synthetic Rubber - Upward pressure is gradually increasing. The butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) closed at 12,070 yuan, up 55 yuan [88]. LLDPE - Some production of standard products is being redirected, and regional spot shortages are being replenished. The L2605 contract closed at 6,737 yuan, up 0.94% [91]. PP - Downstream "rush - to - export" supports propylene, and PP has strong cost support. The PP2605 contract closed at 6,560 yuan, up 0.71% [94]. Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation. The 03 - contract futures price was 2,180 yuan, and the Shandong spot 32 - alkali price was 685 yuan [96]. Pulp - Wide - range oscillation. The pulp main contract (05 contract) closed at 5,490 yuan, down 60 yuan [103]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG605 contract closed at 1,143 yuan, down 0.09% [107]. Methanol - High - level oscillation. The methanol main contract (05 contract) closed at 2,263 yuan, down 10 yuan [111]. Urea - Short - term correction, medium - term strength. The urea main contract (05 contract) closed at 1,783 yuan, up 6 yuan [115]. Styrene - Short - term oscillation. The styrene 2601 contract closed at 6,775 yuan, down 3 yuan [118]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract closed at 1,239 yuan, up 1.31% [123]. LPG - Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The PG2602 contract closed at 4,239 yuan, up 0.43% [127]. Propylene - Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend. The PL2602 contract closed at 5,978 yuan, up 1.10% [127]. PVC - Weak oscillation. The 05 - contract futures price was 4,940 yuan, and the East China spot price was 4,620 yuan [135]. Fuel Oil - The weak trend continues, with support at the bottom. The FU2602 contract closed at 2,501 yuan, down 1.42% [139]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Entered into an oscillatory phase, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market is continuously rebounding. The LU2602 contract closed at 3,040 yuan, down 0.52% [139]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil - The upward momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly within a range. The soybean oil main contract closed at 7,994 yuan, unchanged [172]. Palm Oil - After a negative report was released, the rebound in crude oil prices boosted the price of palm oil. The palm oil main contract closed at 8,724 yuan, up 0.48% [172]. Bean Meal - The USDA report is bearish, and the price may follow the decline of US soybeans. The DCE bean - meal 2605 contract closed at 2,790 yuan, up 0.14% [180]. Bean One - Affected by the USDA report, the price may adjust and oscillate. The DCE bean - one 2605 contract closed at 4,356 yuan, down 0.55% [180]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The C2603 contract closed at 2,290 yuan, up 1.19% [184]. Sugar - Range consolidation. The futures main - contract price was 5,285 yuan, down 3 yuan [187]. Cotton - Continued adjustment. The CF2605 contract closed at 14,625 yuan, down 0.34% [192]. Eggs - Spot trading is profitable, but the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening. The egg 2602 contract closed at 2,996 yuan, up 0.23% [198]. Hogs - There is negative feedback in demand, and supply is expected to increase. The hog 2603 contract closed at 11,770 yuan, up 50 yuan [201]. Peanuts - Oscillatory operation. The PK603 contract closed at 7,868 yuan, down 1.67% [204]. Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Pay attention to the cabin - opening guidance; lightly short the 04 contract. The EC2602 contract closed at 1,748.0 points, up 1.03%, and the EC2604 contract closed at 1,280.8 points, up 11.3% [141][150].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's preference order for the materials sector in 2026 is copper/gold > aluminum > lithium > coal > steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), China Aluminum (02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper (00358) has been upgraded to neutral based on a positive outlook for copper [1] - Chinese policies are still the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies are expected to be milder than anticipated starting from Q4 2025 [1] - Steel profit margins are expected to remain low without significant production cuts, leading to a downgrade of Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SH) to neutral and Ansteel (00347) to underweight [1]