特变电工：从新疆 全球，输变电龙头迈向能源产业链巨头 特变电工股份有限公司创始于1993 年，经过多年发展和扩张，公司主营业务从输变电变为输变电、新 能源、能源、新材料四大核心业务为主。从历史经营来看，随着公司不断发展已有业务和拓展新的业 务，公司经营规模过去持续扩大；而从近2-3 年看，公司经营出现一些波动，其中新能源产品及工程、 煤炭产品两大业务是主要原因，从2025H 看，新能源产品及工程、煤炭产品对利润的影响预计基本触 底。我们认为当前时点，公司输变电、新能源、能源、新材料四大核心业务均有望同步向上，输变电持 续受益电网建设和出口景气，新能源和能源有望受益硅料、煤炭价格变动；并且公司积极拓展能源一体 化业务，未来有望带来增量贡献。 输变电：产业龙头，特高压与海外驱动增长 投资建议 本轮光伏反内卷自上而下推动，政治高度显著高于第一轮，近期已取得初步效果，硅料成交价格明显上 涨。特变电工持有新特能源 65%左右股权，新特能源拥有30 万吨硅料产能，分布在低电价地区新疆、 内蒙，公司硅料生产成本处于行业第一梯队，随行业回暖具有较大弹性。 煤炭：疆内龙头，煤炭煤电煤化工一体成长可期 公司当前煤炭核定产能740 ...

同时，更低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这 些因素结合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、五 矿资源(01208)以及江西铜业(00358)。 该行认为，氧化铝价格因供给增加而持续受压，目前建成产能达1.1亿吨，利用率84%，而中国需求基 本已达上限。该行认为新政策可能限制新增规划氧化铝产能，并预计产能整合将有利于行业龙头如中国 铝业(02600)和中国宏桥(01378)。然而，渠道中大量已批准产能仍可能在2026年对氧化铝价格构成压 力。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，国家发改委上周五(26日)发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章， 提及强化氧化铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。 ...

同时，更低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这 些因素结合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、五 矿资源(01208)以及江西铜业(00358)。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，国家发改委上周五(26日)发表以《大力推动传统产业优化 提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干 企业实施兼并重组。 该行认为，氧化铝价格因供给增加而持续受压，目前建成产能达1.1亿吨，利用率84%，而中国需求基 本已达上限。该行认为新政策可能限制新增规划氧化铝产能，并预计产能整合将有利于行业龙头如中国 铝业(02600)和中国宏桥(01378)。然而，渠道中大量已批准产能仍可能在2026年对氧化铝价格构成压 力。 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-29 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 资料来源：iFinD 长江期货有色产业服务中心 02 宏观经济指标 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2019/10/2 0 2020/10/2 0 2021/10/2 0 2022/10/2 0 2023/10/2 0 2024/10/2 0 2025/10/2 0 美国:国债收益率:10年-2年 日 % 美国国债收益率曲线:2年 日 % 美国国债收益率曲线:10年 日 % 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2021/10/19 2022/10/19 2023/10/19 2024/10/19 2025/10/19 美国:美元指数 日 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2021/12/30 2022/12/30 2023/12/30 2024/12/30 美国:国债收益率:10年 美国:国债实际收益率:10 ...

沪铜狂飙掀起有色涨势热潮叠加美指下挫，隔周沪铝收涨0.6%，夜盘收报22520元/吨；宏观层面，市场 预计2026年美联储将降息两次，首次降息或于年中落地。美元指数周线下跌，进一步增强了以美元计价 的工业金属对海外买家的吸引力。美股市场在2025年持续走高，不断创下历史新高，投资者期待本周美 股能为这一强势年份完美收官。12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开，会议指出2026年将继 续实施更加积极的财政政策，向市场释放了利好信号。 基本面方面，海外铝供应存在扰动，而国内电解铝运行产能整体变化不大，供应压力有限。需求端，目 前已进入季节性消费淡季，受订单疲弱、环保管控以及铝价高企等因素影响，下游开工进一步下滑，铝 下游加工企业开工率持续走低。市场数据显示，上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.6 个百分点至60.8%。近期下游畏高情绪浓厚，现货贴水幅度持续加深，叠加新疆发运情况好转，在途库 存上升，对铝价上行空间形成压制。 综合来看，沪铝供需驱动不足、库存虽升但仍处低位，且氧化铝价格走强为铝价提供了成本支撑，预计 今日现货铝价或上涨。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-56688 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22405 | 130 | 220 | 835 | 1800 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22520 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2957 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 367 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 353637 | 124288 | 128016 | 150656 | 202421 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 299641 | 9167 | -15452 | -48192 | 9302 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index (CSPSADRP) based on their daily and year-to-date performance as of December 29, 2025 [1][5] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) leads with a daily increase of 5.99% and a year-to-date increase of 48.46%, along with a dividend yield of 7.78% [1][5] - Luri Co., Ltd. (002083.SZ) shows the highest year-to-date increase at 154.02%, with a daily increase of 3.61% and a dividend yield of 1.23% [1][5] Group 2 - The data indicates that several companies have significant year-to-date gains, such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) with a 105.37% increase and Jiangsu Guotai (002091.SZ) with a 34.27% increase [1][5] - Companies like Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) and Tunnel Co. (600820.SH) have experienced negative year-to-date performance, with declines of 14.22% and 3.57% respectively [1][5] - The article provides a comprehensive overview of dividend yields, with Semir Apparel having the highest yield at 9.14% despite its negative performance [1][5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone into a modern industrial cluster focused on green aluminum production, aiming to become a national leader in the aluminum industry by 2027 [2][5]. Industry Development - Guangyuan is positioned as the only aluminum-based new materials development base in the province, with a goal to achieve an aluminum industry output value of 467 billion yuan in 2024, up from approximately 82 billion yuan in 2020, marking a growth of 469.51% over five years [2][3]. - The development strategy includes establishing over 80 aluminum-related enterprises with a total output value exceeding 700 billion yuan by 2027, creating a complete green aluminum industry chain [2][5]. Production Capacity - The region currently has an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 615,000 tons and a recycling aluminum capacity of 400,000 tons, with over 220,000 tons of aluminum processing capacity [3]. - Guangyuan has attracted nearly 100 aluminum enterprises, including 60 large-scale companies and 10 national high-tech enterprises, showcasing a robust industrial ecosystem [3][4]. Green Initiatives - The Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone has been recognized as a national green demonstration park and a core production base for green electricity aluminum, emphasizing sustainability in its operations [4]. - The region has initiated a pilot program for optimizing the inspection and supervision of imported recycled aluminum raw materials, which is expected to lower procurement costs and enhance the industry's quality development [4]. Infrastructure Development - The construction of the Sichuan-Shaanxi-Gansu-Chongqing aluminum trading center, processing center, and logistics center is underway, facilitating smooth import and export channels for aluminum raw materials and products [4][5]. - The aluminum trading center has achieved a trade volume exceeding 30 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [4]. Employment and Community Impact - The development of the aluminum industry is driving job creation, with initiatives like the "Spring Breeze Action" job fair connecting over 1,700 job seekers with potential employers [9]. - The region is committed to improving living conditions and urban infrastructure, enhancing the quality of life for residents through various community projects [10][11].

山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司关于出售土地使用权进展的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、基本情况 1、按照博兴县发展规划的要求，根据博兴县人民政府博政办发【2011】40号文件《关于进一步规范城 区企业退城进园土地处置工作的通知》，博兴县国土资源局拟收回山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）位于乐安大街以东、205国道以西的土地使用权，并按照新的规划用途对外挂牌出让。 具体内容详见2015年1月30日公司于巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于出售土地使用权的 公告》。 2、按照博兴县发展规划的最新要求，根据中共博兴县委办公室发【2018】14号文件《关于进一步加强 县城区工业企业"退城进园"土地处置工作的意见（试行）的通知》，博兴县国土资源局将公司位于205 国道以西、乐安大街以东、滨河路以北土地面积为197,282平方米土地进行收储，并按照新的规划用途 进行使用。 该交易事项已经公司第四届董事会2019年第一次临时会议和2019年第一次临时股东大会审议通过。具体 内容详见2019年1月8日和2019年 ...