Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to macro - emotions [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most others will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The total installed capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity is 85.08 million tons/year. The overall start - up rate of the alumina industry remains stable, with slight regional differentiation [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the production or shipment of some aluminum plants has been affected, and the daily output is expected to decrease [2] - After the Spring Festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand recovers, the aluminum - water ratio has increased significantly, and the weekly aluminum - water ratio has increased by about 8 percentage points [2] - The demand side shows an accelerating recovery trend after the festival. The start - up rate of downstream industries has further increased. The demand in sectors such as power grids, canning materials, automobiles, and batteries has recovered well, and the photovoltaic rush - installation demand also provides short - term support [2] - The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5%, but due to high aluminum prices and uneven demand recovery, the performance of different sectors varies significantly [2] - On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is still in the recovery stage. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum in March is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots will continue [2] - The current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, and price volatility has increased. The price has a slight adjustment at a high level in the short term due to sentiment. It is expected to have high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Coal Industry - Morgan Stanley suggests that coal and aluminum sectors are likely to outperform the market in the short term, recommending investment in quality mining companies during dips [1] - The coal sector's strong performance is supported by rising coal price expectations and low investor positions, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company being particularly sensitive to coal price changes [1] - On March 3, coal stocks in China's A-shares rose by 2%-9%, while Hong Kong stocks experienced a slight decline of 1%, driven by increased demand for coal due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2: Aluminum Industry - Despite a market sell-off leading to a 2%-4% drop in aluminum stocks, the supply disruption risk in the aluminum sector is underestimated, with the Middle East accounting for 6.8 million tons of annual aluminum production [3] - If there is a significant supply disruption in the Middle East, aluminum prices could rise rapidly to $4,000 per ton, making it one of the most asymmetric commodities in terms of price increase potential [3] Group 3: Copper Industry - Copper stocks fell by 4%-9% due to investor risk aversion, but the fundamental outlook remains strong, with a projected supply shortage of 130,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026 [4] - Despite a current inventory of 1.2 million tons, the demand from the U.S. and China could put significant pressure on global copper stocks, especially if both countries begin restocking [4] Group 4: Lithium Industry - The lithium sector faced significant pressure, with carbonate lithium prices dropping by 12% to 151,000 yuan per ton, and lithium stocks declining by 6%-11% [5] - Factors contributing to the weakness include concerns over delays in large-scale energy storage projects, a decline in February's electric vehicle sales, and expectations of resumed lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities initiates coverage on Innovation Industry (02788) with a "strong buy" investment rating, highlighting the company's low-cost domestic capacity and future profitability from its Saudi project, alongside a balanced supply-demand situation in the electrolytic aluminum market, which is expected to maintain long-term price stability [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented aluminum enterprise with an integrated and global layout, currently holding an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 788,100 tons and alumina capacity exceeding 3 million tons, with an expected power self-sufficiency rate of 88% in 2024 [1][2] - The company is constructing the "Saudi Red Sea Aluminum Industry Chain Comprehensive Project," which will have a capacity of 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 500,000 tons of aluminum processing, with the company and its affiliates holding a combined 84% stake [1][3] Group 2: Cost Advantages and Resource Self-Sufficiency - The company has established a high self-sufficiency industrial chain of "energy-alumina-electrolytic aluminum," with a projected power self-sufficiency rate of 88% and alumina self-sufficiency rate of 84% by 2024, benefiting from abundant coal resources in Inner Mongolia [2] - The company’s power generation cost is projected to be only 0.37 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2024, supported by six 330 MW thermal power units [2] Group 3: Saudi Project and Growth Potential - The total investment for the Saudi project is approximately $1.835 billion, with an expected production start in 2027, benefiting from low industrial electricity prices of 3.2 cents per kilowatt-hour and various tax incentives [3] - Upon completion, the company will be among the few Chinese enterprises with overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity, providing a unique growth opportunity [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity exceeds 45 million tons with an operating rate of 98.3%, nearing capacity limits, while overseas capacity growth is slow due to power costs [4] - Demand from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to sustain a tight supply-demand balance, with industry profits projected to reach 5,793 yuan per ton by December 2025, marking a near 10-year high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities initiates coverage on Innovation Industry (02788) with a "strong buy" rating, highlighting the company's low-cost domestic production capacity and future profitability from its Saudi project, alongside a balanced supply-demand scenario in the electrolytic aluminum market, which is expected to maintain long-term prosperity [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented aluminum enterprise with an integrated and global layout, currently holding an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 788,100 tons and alumina capacity exceeding 3 million tons, with a projected power self-sufficiency rate of 88% by 2024 [1][2] - The company is strategically positioned with production bases in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, leveraging abundant coal resources to build self-supplied power plants, resulting in a projected power generation cost of only 0.37 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2024 [2] Group 2: Saudi Project - The "Saudi Red Sea Aluminum Industry Chain Comprehensive Project," with a total investment of approximately $1.835 billion, aims for an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 500,000 tons of aluminum processing, expected to commence production in 2027 [3] - The project benefits from low industrial electricity prices of only 3.2 cents per kilowatt-hour and tax incentives, positioning the company as one of the few Chinese enterprises with overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity, thus enhancing its growth potential [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity exceeds 45 million tons, with an operating rate of 98.3%, nearing capacity limits, while overseas production is slow due to power costs [4] - The demand from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to sustain a tight balance in supply and demand, with industry profitability projected to reach 5,793 yuan per ton by December 2025, marking a near 10-year high [4]

中东冲突持续，铝价冲击前高 ——铜铝周报2026.03.09 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 参考区间 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | l 宏观面：中东冲突持续，原油价格飙升，全球金融市场遭遇重大冲击。 | | 1、国内外宏观事 | | | l 基本面：美国2月非农就业人数意外减少9.2万人，同时随着中东战争不断升级，油价持 | 沪铜2604合约 | 件； | | 铜 | 续上涨，市场对于美国通胀担忧仍存。 | 【98000,106000】 | 2、国内外铜矿供 | | | 整体逻辑：铜市中期逻辑不变，近期库存大幅上涨和美元反弹对铜价带来一定压力，铜 l | | 应情况； | | | 价本周或延续调整。 | | 3、美元指数走强。 | | | l 宏观面：中东冲突持续，原油价格飙升，全球金融市场遭遇重大冲击。 | | 1、国内外宏观事 | | | l 基本面：国内供应端维持平稳，下游处于季节性复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the aluminum supply-demand gap is widening, and the vulnerability due to the US-Iran conflict is increasing. Coupled with positive global fiscal and monetary policies, aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs. Given the low cost environment, profits per ton of aluminum are likely to expand further [1] Group 1: Aluminum Market Dynamics - The widening aluminum supply-demand gap is a significant factor influencing market conditions [1] - The US-Iran conflict is contributing to increased market vulnerability, impacting aluminum prices [1] - Global fiscal and monetary policies are positively resonating, further supporting the potential rise in aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The current low cost environment is expected to lead to an increase in profits per ton of aluminum [1] - The rise in energy and alumina prices is a consideration for future profitability [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in electricity and alumina, recommending specific companies such as Nanshan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Huatong Cable [1]

明节有限公司 中东地缘冲突持续,铝产业链价格表现强势 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 中东地缘冲突持续胜升能源价格，引发市场对铝供应销困忧。报据万得数据，3月9日早盘，铝产业链价格表现强势，其中氧化铝主力合约一度涨超8%至3040元吨。沪铝主力合约一度放超 5%至25860元/吨，铸造铝合金主力合约一度涨超5%至24420元/吨，此前伦铝突破3450美元/吨，达近些年新高。 基本面情况 氧化铝: 地缘冲突推升能源和海运成本，短期微单矿损价有所上移，后续如果海运费持续上涨，长加矿台约的行效率或受影响，且影响二季度长价价格谈判预期。供应端，根据阿拉丁数据 受国内大型氧化铝厂政策减产影响，运行产销降至9370万吨，但在后海内外供应端仍有新增产能投放预期。需求端，近期中东地区电解铝厂出现生产犹动，海外氧化铝需求预购有所走弱，预计 氧化铝呈现贯幅震荡。 电解铝：地缘冲突升级加大海外铝执应但优，根据阿拉丁数据、中东地区电解铝全球占比接近LDW，氧化铝等原料依赖进口补充，目前卡塔尔铝业和巴林铝业生产运输已受到影响，若后续区 城冲突升级且海峡通行受阻持续，供应端扰动范围或有所扩大。需求端，国内消费呈现温和复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positives outweigh the negatives, but it's not certain. It is recommended to have a long - biased allocation while controlling positions. Attention should also be paid to the development of the situation and the inflection point of the social inventory of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Domestic bauxite prices continue to fall, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton due to rising freight. Alumina operating capacity increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week to 44.716 million tons. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect aluminum production. The domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of an inflection point [3] 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices continue to decline. The theoretical cost difference between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants is large, and domestic ores are difficult to maintain in the long - term. Mines in Shanxi and Henan are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems are difficult to solve in the short - term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton. Although the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite is increasing, the ore price is still under pressure [8] 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change. The operating capacity was 93.7 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.8%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,673.6 yuan per ton, an increase of 13.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.309 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week. A large alumina plant in Hebei has its roasting end shut down, and it is accelerating the construction of roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan [11] 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.422 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.716 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect electrolytic aluminum production. New production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad, and some enterprises are restarting production or reducing production [20] 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the processing fee of aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [22] 08. Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [25][26][27][28] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 56.3%. Some previously shut - down enterprises have gradually resumed production, but the terminal demand recovery is average, and downstream procurement is mainly for small orders to meet rigid needs [31] 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [33][34][35][36] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 7.5% week - on - week to 44.5%, and that of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 69% [39][43] 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 6% week - on - week to 63%, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 4.6% week - on - week to 51.2% [47]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights the impact of force majeure announcements from Qatar Aluminum and Bahrain Aluminum, leading to a significant increase in LME aluminum prices, which reached a new high since 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Qatar Aluminum has an annual capacity of 636,000 tons, while Bahrain Aluminum has an annual capacity of 1,620,000 tons, representing 0.8% and 2.0% of global production, respectively [1] - Following the announcements, LME aluminum prices rose by 2.5% on March 3 and surged to 5% in the night session on March 4, reaching $3,418 per ton [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The widening aluminum supply-demand gap, coupled with increased vulnerabilities from the US-Iran conflict and supportive global fiscal and monetary policies, suggests that aluminum prices may reach new highs [1] - With low-cost conditions, the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to further expand [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in electricity and alumina, including Nanshan Aluminum International (02610), China Hongqiao (01378), China Aluminum (02600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH), and Huatong Cable (605196.SH) [1]

Group 1 - Qatar Aluminium and Bahrain Aluminium announced force majeure, with annual capacities of 636,000 tons and 1,620,000 tons respectively, accounting for 0.8% and 2.0% of global production [1] - LME aluminium prices rose significantly, increasing by 2.5% on March 3 and reaching a peak of 5% on the night of March 4, hitting $3,418 per ton, the highest since 2022 [1] - The widening aluminium supply-demand gap and increased vulnerabilities due to the US-Iran conflict, combined with positive global fiscal and monetary policies, suggest that aluminium prices may reach new highs [1] Group 2 - The company expects further expansion in aluminium profit margins due to low costs, with a recommendation to focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in electricity and alumina [1] - Recommended companies include Nanshan Aluminium (600219), China Hongqiao (01378), China Aluminium (601600), Tianshan Aluminium (002532), and Huatong Cable (605196) [1]