| 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ 现价 | | --- | --- | | 永辉超市 | 10.10% 5.56 | | 百大集团 | 10.02% 14.38 | | 欧亚集团 | 10.02% 14.38 | | 中央商场 | 10.00% 4.62 | | 广百股份 | 9.99% 8.26 | | 红旗连锁 | 9.95% 6.85 | | 利群股份 | 9.91% 4.99 | | 茂业商业 | 6.90% 6.97 | | 家家悦 | 5.72% 12.19 | | 三江购物 | 5.73% 15.31 | 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 于祥明）截至12月16日13点30分，零售消费概念板块持续活跃，红旗连 锁、永辉超市、百大集团、中央商场等多股涨停。家家悦、重庆百货、王府井、茂业商业、天虹股份、 三江购物等多股跟涨。 消息面上，国家统计局有关负责人近日表示，从累计增速来看，今年我国社会消费品零售总额增长好于 去年。11月份，全国社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%。 ...

在美国就业及零售销售数据公布后， 美国联邦基金期货小幅提高了明年1月降息的几率，从之前的22%升至31%。美国利率期货仍预计2026年将有两次降 息；预计明年的宽松幅度为58个基点。 周二，美国11月季调后非农就业人口增加6.4万人，增幅大于市场普遍预期的5万人。美国11月失业率录得4.6%，超预期4.4%，为2021年9月以来新高。美国 11月平均每小时工资年率和月率分别录得3.5%和0.1%，低于预期的3.6%和0.3%。 美国10月非农就业人数则环比下降10.5万人，为2020年底以来的最大降幅。相比之下，市场预期为下降2.5万人。分析师指出，这反映出超过15万名联邦雇员 的离职，他们接受了延期买断，这是特朗普政府缩小联邦政府规模的努力的一部分。他们中的大多数在9月底从政府的工资单上消失了。 与此同时，美国商务部表示，受汽车销售疲软的影响， 美国10月零售销售月率意外零增长，不及预期的0.1%，前值由0.2%下修为0.1%。 此外，日内早些时候ADP周度就业报告显示，在经历了四周的就业岗位减少之后，招聘活动可能正在反弹。截至2025年11月29日的四周内，美国私营企业平 均每周新增16,250个就业岗位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the alarming rise in layoffs in the U.S., with over 1.17 million employees laid off as of November, marking a 54% increase from the previous year, reminiscent of the 2008-2009 financial crisis [5][6]. Group 1: Causes of Layoffs - The primary cause of layoffs is attributed to the efficiency revolution led by the DOGE department, resulting in 293,753 federal employees and contractors losing their jobs, with an additional 20,976 in the private and non-profit sectors, an eightfold increase compared to 2024 [15]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by high costs and tariffs, is also a significant factor, as many companies face debt repayment pressures from loans taken during the low-interest period of 2020-2021 [18][19]. - Retail, service, and food industries are the hardest hit, with retail experiencing a 20% drop in consumer confidence and significant job cuts from companies like Target and Starbucks due to rising prices and reduced consumer spending [27][30][32]. Group 2: Impact on Different Sectors - The retail sector has seen massive layoffs, with companies like Target cutting 1,800 jobs and Starbucks 900 due to decreased consumer spending [30]. - The service industry has also been affected, with 69,089 layoffs, a 64% increase, as companies like UPS cut 14,000 management positions to improve efficiency [30]. - The food industry faced 34,165 layoffs, with rising costs leading to job cuts in beef processing companies [32]. Group 3: Technology and Management Changes - The technology sector has contributed significantly to layoffs, with 35% of the total layoffs coming from this industry, particularly affecting middle management roles [47][48]. - Companies are increasingly using layoffs as a management tool to improve profitability, with a new focus on revenue per employee as a key performance indicator [50]. - The trend of cutting middle management has led to immediate operational cost savings, with companies like Amazon and Verizon reporting significant efficiency improvements after layoffs [57]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The technology sector is expected to continue this trend, with predictions of a peak in cost-cutting benefits by 2026, potentially reducing operational costs and increasing profit margins [60]. - However, the loss of middle management, which often holds critical technical knowledge, may extend product development cycles and hinder innovation [65][74]. - The article warns that excessive cost-cutting could erode the foundation of innovation in the tech industry, leading to a talent shortage and reduced research and development investment [75][73].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Baida Group (600865.SH) has experienced a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of 46.44% from December 11 to December 16, 2025, leading to concerns about potential risks of a subsequent decline due to the rapid price increase [1] Company Overview - Baida Group's main business activities include commodity retail and leasing [1] - As of the date of the announcement, there have been no significant changes in the company's main business, production operations, or operating environment compared to previous disclosures [1] - A self-examination and inquiries to the controlling shareholder and actual controller confirmed that, as of December 16, 2025, there are no undisclosed significant matters beyond previously disclosed information [1]

全国零售业创新发展大会9日至10日在北京举行。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上表示，要坚持诚信经营， 以高品质商品和服务赢得消费者青睐，推动商业设施从空间租赁转向场景运营、生态构建，提升可持续 发展水平。要学习推广胖东来等企业好经验好做法，加快转型提升。 ...

【文/观察者网 王勇 编辑/赵乾坤】 "太难了，真的找不到中国游客。"日前，日本关西电视台记者在街头试图采访中国游客，却没有找到一 名中国游客。在一家以往中国顾客占比高达20%的门店外，当日排队顾客中竟无一人来自中国。周边景 点区域的多位店主也证实，中国游客正大幅减少。有店主坦言，中国游客的缺失导致其店铺每月营业额 损失高达约300万日元（约合人民币14万元），"现在已经不知道明天该怎么办了"。 就在日本记者采访不到中国游客时，在韩国的街头，中国旅行者随处可见。 据韩国《中央日报》日前报道，近几周，首尔街头的中国游客数量明显增多，极大地带动了市中心多家 免税店的商品销售。在明洞地区一些服装店、化妆品品牌店和太阳镜柜台，同样能见到众多顾客向收银 员递上红色的中国护照，用支付宝或微信结账——中国游客的到来让韩国零售行业收入迎来反弹。 据主要韩国免税企业11月份的报告，韩国零售业收入较去年同期大幅增长，且持续增长趋势明显。 目前，在大韩航空韩中航线，上海仍然是最受韩国旅客青睐的中国旅行目的地。2025年至今，韩国前往 上海的旅客数量较去年增加12.8万人次，韩国前往北京的旅客数量增加7.1万人次，前往青岛的旅客数量 ...

龙虎榜方面，多只商业航天概念股遭游资抛售，其中雷科防务遭一家实力游资（国泰海通证券上海新闸路）卖出1.69亿，航天科技遭一家实力游资（招商证 券深圳深南大道）卖出0.65亿，中超控股遭三家实力游资（国泰海通证券成都北一环路、中泰证券湖北分公司、国泰海通证券南京太平南路）合计卖出1.65 亿。永辉超市今日涨停，获两家一线游资席位（中国银河证券大连黄河路、国泰海通证券上海新闸路）分别买入3.95亿、1.5亿，同时获沪股通买入2.16亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为961.19亿，深股通总成交金额为1115.17亿。 | | | 沪股通( 12月16日 ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 688256 | 寒武纪 | 18.26 | | 2 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 13.73 | | 3 | 600276 | 恒瑞医药 | 12.92 | | 4 | 601318 | 中国平安 | 12.15 | | 5 | 600036 | 招商银行 | 11.88 | | 6 | 601138 ...

永辉超市(601933)今日涨停，全天换手率14.70%，成交额72.89亿元，振幅10.32%。龙虎榜数据显示， 沪股通净买入2.16亿元，营业部席位合计净买入4.40亿元。 上交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日涨幅偏离值达11.21%上榜，沪股通净买入2.16亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交15.02亿元，其中，买入成交额为10.79亿 元，卖出成交额为4.23亿元，合计净买入6.56亿元。 具体来看，今日上榜的营业部中，沪股通为第二大买入营业部，买入金额为2.16亿元，合计净买入2.16 亿元。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流入29.14亿元，其中，特大单净流入30.96亿元，大单资金净流出 1.82亿元。近5日主力资金净流入4.90亿元。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（12月15日）两融余额为15.57亿元，其中，融资余额为15.43亿元，融券 余额为1414.40万元。近5日融资余额合计增加1.40亿元，增幅为9.95%。融券余额合计减少23.94万元， 降幅1.66%。 10月31日公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入424.34亿元，同比下降22.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy maintained a stable state in November 2025, with obvious structural improvements, but the endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The report maintains the judgment that the economic growth rate in 2026 will still be positive, with a possible pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [4]. - In the equity market, market sentiment may continue to improve, and the market may show a volatile upward trend. In the bond market, volatility may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, and attention should be paid to gold, copper, and aluminum priced internationally [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the November 2025 Economy - The economy maintained a stable state with obvious structural improvements, including the continuous recovery of CPI, prominent economic kinetic energy switching, strengthened export competitiveness, high - level production, steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, and highlights in service consumption [5]. - The endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The "subsidy withdrawal" effect has a significant impact, economic data still needs trend improvement, the endogenous growth momentum needs to be strengthened, and real estate still has a certain drag on the economy [6]. 2. Interpretation of November 2025 Economic Sub - item Data - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and service PMI declined. The new order index was the main contributor to the increase in PMI. The PMI of high - tech manufacturing was above the boom - bust line. The service business activity index was below the boom - bust line for the first time since September 2024. The construction industry PMI improved [7][8]. - Fixed - asset investment continued to decline under the drag of real estate. Real estate development investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 3.4 percentage points. In the future, the drag of real estate on fixed - asset investment is expected to shrink, and infrastructure investment may stabilize, while manufacturing investment should focus on emerging directions [9]. - Service consumption had highlights, while commodity consumption was highly differentiated. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased slightly. Service consumption, such as catering, maintained growth, while commodity consumption, such as automobiles and home appliances, declined due to the "subsidy withdrawal" effect [10]. - Exports showed strong resilience, with prominent structural highlights and a steady expansion of the surplus. In November, the export growth rate rebounded. The exports to Africa performed outstandingly, and the product structure was optimized. Exports are expected to be a major bright spot in the economy in 2026 [11][12]. - Real estate sales continued to bottom out. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the market was still in the process of destocking. The prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [13]. - The production end remained stable. In November, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries grew faster than the overall level [14]. - At the price end, CPI continued to rise, and PPI was stable and waiting to rise. In November, CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI increased month - on - month. Consumption - end prices showed a recovery trend, and production - end prices were characterized by differentiation [14]. - In November, the overall social financing was stable, and credit increased less year - on - year. Government bond financing supported the growth of social financing, while the demand of the resident sector was weak, and the demand of the enterprise sector improved marginally [18]. - The profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily. From January to October 2025, the cumulative profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises increased for three consecutive months. In the future, policies are expected to promote the growth of industrial enterprise profits [19][20]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Overseas, the main narrative is the soft landing of the economy, but there are still uncertainties in the structure. The US economy is expected to maintain a positive trend, but there are risks such as the differentiation between the real and virtual economies, the widening wealth gap, and the differentiation between AI and non - AI investments [21]. - At the domestic policy level, in 2026, the macro - policy will be more proactive. Fiscal policy will be more positive and pay attention to robustness and sustainability, and monetary policy will be moderately loose, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [21]. - In terms of the economy, the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. The endogenous recovery momentum of domestic demand needs to be consolidated, and exports are expected to perform well [22]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: In the short term, the market may show a volatile upward trend. Investors should focus on sectors with positive event catalysts, sectors benefiting from the recovery of the equity market, sectors benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the supplementary rise of the large - consumption sector [24]. - Bond market: The volatility of ultra - long bonds may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the expected term of fiscal bond issuance and the adjustment of the risk assessment indicators of large banks [25]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies. For precious metals, the long - bull foundation of gold remains. For crude oil, the price trend may continue to be weak. For internationally priced non - ferrous metals, the price is in a medium - term upward channel. For commodities priced by the domestic fundamentals, the prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range volatile trend [26].

海外利率周报 20251216 担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 16 日 宏观经济指标点评 就业：美国 2025 年 10 月 JOLTS 就业职位空缺数量为 767 万个，略高于 9 月份的 765.8 万个。同时，雇主招聘数量为 514.9 万个，低于 9 月份的 536.7 万个和去年 10 月的 535 万个。本周美国初请失业金人数为 23.6 万人，高于市场预期的 22 万人，较 前值 19.2 万人大幅回升。据 JOLTS 报告，上周初请失业金人数的反弹终结了此前连 续数周的下降趋势。 主要海外市场利率回顾 美国：担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻。本周（2025 年 12 月 5 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日，下同）美债收益率变动：1 个月期（-6bp，3.76%）、1 年期（-7bp， 3.54%）、2 年期（-4bp，3.52%）、5 年期（+3bp，3.75%）、10 年期（+5bp，4.19%）、 30 年期（+6bp，4.85%）。鉴于 2025 年降息预期已经实现，市场对于 2026 年上半 年的降息展望维持在 ...