Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to April totaled 147,024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [1] Structural Challenges - Despite the positive growth in industrial and consumer sectors, structural challenges remain, including the need for further improvement in residents' income and the ongoing bottoming out of the real estate market [2] - The external environment poses risks such as geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, but there is potential for China to diversify its export markets and enhance its high-tech product offerings [2] Manufacturing Growth - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry achieved high growth rates of 9.8% and 10% respectively, indicating ongoing industrial structure optimization [2][3] - Government support through fiscal measures and subsidies is suggested to bolster emerging technology products and enhance market efficiency [2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is currently in a bottoming phase, and policies should focus on stabilizing demand while ensuring risk control [4] - Short-term measures may include lowering mortgage rates and optimizing city-specific support policies to meet housing demand [4][5] Consumer Spending - The introduction of differentiated subsidies is recommended to stimulate consumption, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural areas [6] - The shift in consumption patterns from "external display" to "internal entertainment" highlights the importance of service consumption in driving economic growth [7][8] Foreign Trade - In April, exports increased by 9.3%, with a notable shift towards emerging markets, which helps mitigate risks from traditional markets [11] - Future focus areas for foreign trade include enhancing the resilience of supply chains, deepening regional cooperation, and improving the competitiveness of products in international markets [12]

宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 工业增加值 0 2 4 6 8 10 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 % 工业增加值:累计同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 消费 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 2021-08 2021-12 2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 % 社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 [T相关报告 able_Report] 1．《一季度开门红 内需逐步发力—3 月及一 季度经济数据点评》 关税不确定性尚存 扩内需政策加快落地 —4 月经济数据点评 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the effective implementation of "Two Heavy" projects and the expansion of "Two New" policies, which are crucial for enhancing economic development and stability [1][2][3] - "Two Heavy" projects focus on strategic areas such as technological self-reliance, urban-rural integration, and ecological security, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and agricultural development [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the project list for "Two Heavy" construction by the end of June, ensuring high standards in implementation and efficiency [3] Group 2 - "Two New" initiatives involve large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer product replacements, which have become vital for boosting consumption and investment [4][5] - Retail sales in key categories such as home appliances and furniture have shown substantial growth, contributing to an increase in overall social retail sales [4] - Investment in equipment and tools has risen significantly, with a notable contribution from sectors closely related to "Two New" policies, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing and technological upgrades [4][5] Group 3 - The economic outlook remains stable, with domestic demand expanding and external markets diversifying, as evidenced by a 4.7% year-on-year increase in social retail sales [6][7] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors are experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in production output for servers and industrial robots [6] - The NDRC plans to accelerate fund allocation and improve the efficiency of fund usage to support the ongoing implementation of "Two New" policies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support the resilience of foreign trade in the second quarter, but the future of economic negotiations remains uncertain due to escalating strategic competition between the two countries [1][12]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - In April, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 21% year-on-year, while imports fell by 14%, indicating a significant impact from the tariffs, but the overall trade balance was not completely disrupted [2]. - China's overall export growth in April was 8.1%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, supported by increased exports to non-U.S. countries, such as a 21% increase to ASEAN [2]. - The industrial added value in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%, driven by resilient foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The high-tech manufacturing and digital product sectors showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% for both categories, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading [3]. - Investment in high-tech services increased by 11.3% year-on-year from January to April, with information services seeing a remarkable 40.6% growth [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, supported by accelerated fiscal policies [4]. - Local government special bonds issuance reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to funding infrastructure projects [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Resilience - The Chinese financial market demonstrated strong resilience, with the A-share market rebounding by 7.1% from its low in April, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [5][6]. - Despite the pressures from U.S. tariffs, foreign capital continued to show interest in Chinese assets, with net inflows into domestic bonds and stocks [6]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, but its real effective exchange rate index fell by 2.9% in April, indicating a passive appreciation that does not harm export competitiveness [8]. - The foreign exchange market remained stable, with banks reporting a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, driven by increased willingness to settle in RMB [7]. Group 6: Consumer and Real Estate Market Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth slowing to 5.1% in April, below market expectations, largely due to declining automobile sales [10]. - The real estate market faced challenges, with sales volume and value declining by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a weakening demand [11].

Economic Overview - The province's economy continued to show a stable and positive development trend in April, with industrial growth remaining robust and investment and consumption growth accelerating, with key indicators surpassing the national average [4] Industrial Growth - In April, the province's industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.0% year-on-year, exceeding the national average by 1.9 percentage points [1] - The automotive and parts industry and the electronic information industry saw year-on-year added value growth of 17.3% and 13.0%, contributing 10.7% and 9.9% to the province's industrial growth, respectively [1] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry experienced a year-on-year added value growth of 23.0%, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to March, outpacing the province's industrial growth by 15 percentage points [1] - From January to April, the province's industrial added value increased by 8.6% year-on-year, higher than the national average by 2.2 percentage points [1] Investment Trends - From January to April, fixed asset investment in the province grew by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1 percentage point compared to the first quarter and surpassing the national average by 2.4 percentage points [2] - Investment in projects above 100 million yuan increased by 10.6% year-on-year, contributing 6.7 percentage points to the overall investment growth [2] - Industrial investment surged by 26.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 4.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter, significantly exceeding the national average by 14.9 percentage points [2] - Equipment and tool purchase investment rose by 54.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Private investment increased by 9.7% year-on-year, slightly accelerating compared to the first quarter and surpassing the national average [2] Consumption Growth - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 206.739 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to March and exceeding the national average by 3 percentage points [3] - The retail sales of computers and related products, wearable smart devices, household appliances, and audio-visual equipment saw significant year-on-year growth of 140.4%, 110.0%, 42.6%, respectively, contributing 3.1 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [3] - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 946.793 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, slightly accelerating compared to the first quarter and exceeding the national average by 2.5 percentage points [3] Emerging Industries - In April, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 13.5% year-on-year, with the new energy vehicle industry and the next-generation information technology industry growing by 14.5% and 11.5%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3] - High-tech manufacturing investment from January to April grew by 24.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - The proportion of new energy power generation in the total industrial power generation reached 23.5%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter and 6.1 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [3]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector[22] Inflation and Pricing - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at -0.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.7%[10] - The focus on price recovery is crucial, with core CPI recovery linked to the stabilization of the real estate market, which is essential for internal demand recovery[5] Structural Dynamics - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy continues to strengthen economic resilience, effectively countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on economic growth[5] - The ongoing structural transformation is expected to gradually reduce the drag from real estate and consumption, allowing for a more balanced economic outlook[5] Future Outlook - The economic environment is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, suggesting a potential turning point in negative narratives, with a more optimistic view on RMB assets[5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[6]

Economic Overview - The current economic operation in China faces increased challenges due to uncertainties in international circulation, but favorable conditions for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged [1] - The national economy has shown a good start this year, with April maintaining stable growth, laying a foundation for achieving annual targets [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Domestic demand plays a significant stabilizing role, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 50% to economic growth in Q1 [2] - The implementation of policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods has boosted retail markets, particularly in appliances and furniture [2] - Fixed asset investment has increased by 4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growth close to 9% [2] Industrial Growth and Innovation - The industrial economy has shown positive momentum, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale industries from January to April [2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors have outperformed average industrial growth rates, with significant increases in the production of industrial robots and new energy vehicles [2] Regulatory Environment and Support for Enterprises - New laws and regulations have been implemented to enhance the vitality of various business entities, including the promotion of private economy and fair competition [3] - The government has introduced measures to support industries facing challenges in transformation and export, fostering a more favorable business environment [3] Global Economic Integration - Despite rising protectionism and unilateralism, globalization remains a historical trend, and many multinational companies continue to invest in China, reflecting confidence in the market's potential [3] - China aims to enhance its economic circulation quality and promote efficient connections between domestic and international markets [3] Innovation and Digital Transformation - China is transitioning from being a manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with multinational companies upgrading their R&D centers in China to focus on digital innovation [4] - The integration of digital technologies with manufacturing and market advantages is being accelerated, promoting opportunities for emerging industries [4] Green Transformation - There is a strong commitment to promoting a comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, focusing on clean energy utilization and the growth of the renewable energy sector [5]

Group 1 - Structural tax reductions and fee cuts are important tools for implementing proactive fiscal policies and directly benefiting enterprises, with significant effects on promoting technological innovation and high-quality development in manufacturing [1] - Recent tax incentives include an increase in the R&D expense deduction ratio to 100%, with further increases to 120% for integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, and a 5% VAT input tax deduction for advanced manufacturing, raised to 15% for specific sectors [1] - In the first quarter of this year, tax reductions and refunds supporting technological innovation and manufacturing reached 424.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the first four months of this year, sales revenue in high-tech industries, technology transfer services, digital economy core industries, and enterprise procurement of digital technologies increased by 13.9%, 33.6%, 9.7%, and 9.4% respectively, indicating a rapid development of new productive forces [2] - Manufacturing sales revenue grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing, digital product manufacturing, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.4%, 12.6%, and 12.2% respectively, reflecting steady growth and innovation in the sector [2] - The State Taxation Administration will continue to leverage big data to ensure that policy benefits reach the intended recipients and will combat fraudulent claims for tax benefits [2] Group 3 - Structural tax reductions and fee cuts are expected to continue playing a positive role, enhancing corporate innovation capabilities and better serving the construction of a modern industrial system [3]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector in China showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in the value added of large-scale equipment manufacturing, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial production growth [3] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing also experienced a year-on-year increase of 10%, driven by strong demand for servers and industrial robots, with server production nearly doubling and industrial robot production increasing by 51.5% [3] - The government plans to continue implementing policies to enhance the quality and scope of new industries, accelerate the "AI+" initiative, and expand effective investment to promote sustained growth in the industrial economy [3] Group 2 - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the upgraded version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which includes nine new chapters focusing on digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity [5] - The 3.0 version aims to deepen regional economic integration and enhance the integration of production and supply chains, providing greater certainty for regional and global trade amid significant economic challenges [5] - Both parties will actively promote domestic approval processes to facilitate the formal signing of the upgraded agreement by the end of the year [5] Group 3 - The Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo is scheduled to be held from June 12 to 15 in Changsha, Hunan, with participation from over 12,000 individuals from 44 African countries and six international organizations [6][7] - The expo will feature various sectors including mining technology, clean energy, and modern agricultural machinery, along with special exhibitions showcasing well-known brands and products from Africa [7] - The Chinese government will support all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China by offering zero tariffs on 100% of product categories, allowing them to benefit from the Chinese market [7]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 4月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态 势。 5月19日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，4月我国经济生产需求平稳增长，就业 形势总体稳定，新动能积聚成长。 毕马威中国发布的2025年二季度《中国经济观察》报告指出："内需方面，得益于国内政策前置发力，居民消费、 企业投资显现出较强韧性；外需方面，在4月对等关税预期之下，企业抢出口活动热度较高。内需修复，外需走 强，国内生产热度也同步回升。" 不过，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟也对本报记者提醒，后续经济表现仍存隐忧。内需方面，当前国内生产仍 然强于需求，物价仍在低位波动，一季度GDP平减指数为-0.8%，已经连续第八个季度为负；房企库存压力不减， 房地产企稳的前景仍不明朗；耐用消费品以旧换新消费政策刺激效果或将减弱。外需方面，短期因中美贸易谈判 取得实质性进展，关税降幅超预期，二季度我国出口仍有支撑，但后续中美博弈或长期拉锯，国际贸易形势依然 复杂多变，需要政府和企业提前布局。 "下阶段，要坚持稳中求进 ...