制造业增加值占全球比重已接近30%，总体规模连续15年保持全球第一；制造业门类体系完整优势更加 明显，在全世界504种主要工业产品中，我国大多数产品产量位居世界第一……一系列数据表明，中国 制造的规模领先。 "十四五"时期，中国制造规模优势持续夯实，创新动能更加澎湃，产业结构不断优化，产业基础更加牢 固，由大向强的步伐更加坚定。 产业基础更牢固 制造业是国家经济命脉所系，是立国之本、强国之基。2020年至2024年，我国全部工业增加值从31.3万 亿元增长到40.5万亿元，制造业增加值从26.6万亿元增长到33.6万亿元。"十四五"期间，制造业增加值 增量预计达8万亿元，对全球制造业增长贡献率超过30%。 创新投入稳步提升。规模以上制造业企业研发经费占营业收入比重超过1.6%，570多家工业企业入围全 球研发投入2500强。产业科技创新重点领域进入到"跟跑"加快、"并跑"增多、"领跑"涌现的新阶 段。"嫦娥"落月、"天和"驻空、"北斗"组网，人工智能、量子通信等领域取得了一批在世界上"数得 着""叫得响"的创新成果。 产业升级步伐加快。2020年至2024年，我国装备制造业和高技术制造业增加值分别年均增长7. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

Core Insights - The total R&D expenditure in China for 2024 is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, marking an 8.9% increase from the previous year, indicating a stable growth trend in R&D investment [2] - China ranks second globally in R&D expenditure, following the United States, and has a higher growth rate than major economies [2] - The R&D expenditure intensity (R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP) is 2.69%, up by 0.11 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting a faster increase than the average since the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] R&D Expenditure Breakdown - In 2024, R&D expenditures from enterprises, government research institutions, and higher education institutions are 28,211.6 billion yuan, 4,231.6 billion yuan, and 3,065.5 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8.8%, 9.7%, and 11.3% [3] - Enterprises contribute over 75% of total R&D funding, with a contribution rate of 77.1% to the overall growth of R&D expenditure [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors show R&D expenditure growth rates of 10.2% and 10.5%, respectively, outpacing the overall growth rate [3] Basic Research Investment - Basic research funding reached 250.09 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.7%, while applied research and experimental development funding grew by 17.6% and 7.6% respectively [4] - The proportion of basic research funding in total R&D expenditure is 6.88%, the highest in history, with government research institutions and universities contributing significantly to this growth [4] Fiscal Support and Tax Incentives - National fiscal science and technology expenditure for 2024 is 12,629.2 billion yuan, a 5.3% increase from the previous year, focusing on basic research and scientific research facilities [5] - Tax incentives for R&D have led to a 16.7% increase in the number of enterprises benefiting from R&D expense deductions and a 25.5% increase in the amount of expenses claimed compared to 2021 [5] Regional Development and Innovation - R&D expenditures in eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions of China are 23,773.0 billion yuan, 6,582.1 billion yuan, 4,759.8 billion yuan, and 1,211.9 billion yuan respectively, all showing significant growth [7] - Key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have R&D expenditures exceeding 5,000 billion yuan, highlighting their role as innovation hubs [7] - The Yangtze River Economic Belt and Yellow River Basin regions also show robust R&D expenditure growth, indicating effective regional collaboration in innovation [7]

Core Insights - The September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China indicates a slight improvement in economic output, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery, with a production index of 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, and a new orders index of 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - Factors contributing to the recovery include seasonal improvements, the implementation of consumer loan subsidies, and a more active domestic capital market, which has boosted market confidence [2][3] - The prices of major raw materials have decreased, with purchasing prices down 0.1 percentage points to 53.2% and factory prices down 0.9 percentage points to 48.2% [3] - Key manufacturing sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, with the service sector index at 50.1%, both indicating a decline [4][5] - The drop in service sector activity is attributed to the seasonal effects post-summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which has delayed consumer activities [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, sectors such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services remain in a high-growth zone with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index is at 49.3%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold [6] - The construction activity is weak, particularly in civil engineering and housing, indicating a need for improved project coordination and funding [6] - Recent data shows a 9.0% month-on-month increase in housing transactions in 30 major cities, and a 14.4% increase in land transactions, reflecting typical seasonal patterns [6]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment regarding China's current economic situation is optimistic, with a belief in its resilience and potential for future growth [1][5] - Economic indicators such as growth, employment, prices, and international balance of payments are performing well, with China's economic growth rate in the first half of the year significantly higher than most economies [1][3] - Exports have shown strong resilience, with an export growth rate of 6.9% in the first eight months, particularly in new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, which saw growth rates exceeding 20% [1][3] Group 2 - Innovation is highlighted as a key driver of development, with significant advancements in core technologies and the emergence of notable tech products, including AI applications and robotics [2][5] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is accelerating, with high-tech manufacturing growth outpacing overall industrial growth, and a steady increase in the share of modern service industries [2][5] - The green and low-carbon transition is making progress, with a continued decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP, contributing to a more sustainable economic development [2] Group 3 - There are recognized risks and challenges in the current economic environment, including external uncertainties and domestic demand weaknesses, particularly in consumption [3][4] - Despite these challenges, the government is focused on maintaining economic stability and ensuring the well-being of the population, with real disposable income growth outpacing economic growth [3][4] - Measures have been taken to address food and energy security, with successful grain production and stable electricity supply during peak demand [3] Group 4 - Economic transformation is not uniform, with disparities across regions and industries, leading to varied experiences among different economic entities [4] - Industries that effectively utilize technology, such as AI, are seeing significant improvements in employee compensation, while traditional sectors like real estate are facing challenges [4] - The government aims to address these disparities through reforms and policies to ensure broader access to economic benefits [4] Group 5 - Looking ahead, China's economy has substantial potential driven by factors such as a strong workforce, significant R&D investment, and a complete industrial system [5] - The country maintains a high level of R&D personnel and expenditure relative to GDP, indicating a robust foundation for future innovation [5] - The leadership and institutional advantages of the socialist system are seen as critical for ensuring stable and sustainable economic growth [5]

Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] Industry Performance - In September, the PMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in Q3 was 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery compared to Q2 and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for manufacturing activities are positive, with a production and operation expectation index of 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting improved market outlook [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, indicating steady performance in the sector [3] Financial Sector - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, with new orders also increasing, indicating strong support for the real economy [4] - The telecommunications and software services sectors maintained high business activity indices, reflecting ongoing growth in new economy sectors [4] Policy and Demand - There is an expectation for macroeconomic policies to be strengthened in Q4, which may boost market confidence and demand [5] - Seasonal factors such as holidays and promotional events are anticipated to enhance consumer demand in the coming months [3][5]

Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] - The Production Index for manufacturing reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, suggesting active manufacturing production [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust supply and demand [1] Group 2 - The Production and Business Activity Expectation Index for manufacturing was 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting positive market outlook among manufacturers [2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability in the non-manufacturing sector, while the Service Sector Index remained in the expansion zone at 50.1% [2] - Certain sectors like postal, telecommunications, and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60.0%, while sectors closely related to consumer spending, such as dining and entertainment, fell below the critical point [2] Group 3 - Overall, September's macroeconomic indicators showed a stable improvement, with multiple positive factors contributing to increased market vitality [3] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to be intensified, providing new momentum and confidence to the market [3]

Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] New Growth Drivers - In September, the PMIs for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations among manufacturers [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, despite a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - The service sector PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][4] - Financial services showed strong performance with a business activity index above 60%, indicating robust support for the real economy [4] Future Outlook - The third quarter average manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for the fourth quarter include increased macroeconomic policies to boost market confidence and demand, driven by holiday consumption and infrastructure projects [3][4] - The non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoints - The traditional sectors are experiencing weakened growth, while new momentum shows a significant recovery, necessitating attention to the effects of stable growth policies in key industries [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved, with a rise of 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, aligning with seasonal expectations. The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][7][73]. - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a slower recovery compared to previous years. The demand structure continues to show that external demand is outperforming internal demand, with new export orders rising more significantly than domestic orders [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, driven by stronger production, while the price indices for raw materials and factory output remained resilient [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - The PMI for new momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, showed significant improvement, with the equipment manufacturing PMI rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% and high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone at 51.9% [2][19][74]. - Conversely, high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI slightly recovering by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI dropped 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and cultural activities, experienced a significant decline in business activity indices, falling below critical levels [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional momentum faces downward pressure on both quantity and price, new momentum is accelerating its support for the economy. Continuous monitoring of the effects of new incremental policies is essential [3][75]. - The upcoming stable growth policies in key industries like construction materials and steel are expected to mitigate the risks associated with the downturn in infrastructure and real estate sectors [3][75].

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is reported at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1][6][7] Manufacturing Activity - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, suggesting active manufacturing production [6][7] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a modest improvement in market demand [6][7] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, indicating varying levels of activity across different enterprise sizes [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6%, respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust activity [9] - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold line, reaching its highest level this year [2][9] Inventory and Pricing - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels, albeit at a slower pace [10] - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing profit margin for manufacturers [9][10] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectations index has risen for three consecutive months, now at 54.1%, indicating improved confidence among manufacturers regarding market conditions [10]