以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 当前宏观经济呈现出明显的"供强需弱"特征，外贸表现尚可，但投资与消费需求不足，物价水平处 于低位。针对这种宏观形势,最近召开的中央经济工作会议提出加大逆周期调节和跨周期调节力度。 逆周期政策主要是从需求端发力的短期总量需求管理，着眼于刺激总需求；跨周期调节显然主要针对 的是供给面，通过结构性调整与挖掘新增长动能来优化供给、提质增效。这种逆周期调节和跨周期调 节的相互融合，是基于稳中求进、提质增效的总方针。 这样一种供需两端同时发力、短中期政策相互配合的政策安排源于对当前经济下滑性质的判断。当前 中国经济下行压力既来自于周期性因素，即由需求不足所导致的下行；同时也有一些中长期因素，主 要是供给层面，传统增长动能衰减导致潜在增长率下降，引发经济下行。 因此，当前中国经济下行，既有短期因素，也有中长期因素，包 ...

2025.12.11 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，着眼于做好"五篇大文章"，引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、制造 业转型升级、绿色发展、小微企业，以及促消费稳外贸等国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节，2026年央行将 优化用好各类结构性货币政策工具，总体上是"加量降价"，即结构性货币政策工具额度总体上会增加， 操作利率则会跟进降息适度下调。结构性货币政策工具发力，除了推动新旧增长动能转换、助力高质量 发展外，也会起到以结构带总量的作用，推动整体信贷、社融增长。 招联首席研究员董希淼也表示，接下来央行将针对结构性矛盾，坚持聚焦重点、有进有退的原则，科学 使用、适时创设结构性货币政策工具，逐步淡化对数量目标的关注，更加注重引导金融资源更多地配置 到科技创新、提振消费、绿色低碳等重点领域和薄弱环节，做好金融"五篇大文章"，增强政策的精准性 和有效性。 近年来，为了适配经济高质量发展的需要，央行不断丰富基础货币投放渠道，创新运用结构性货币政策 工具等再贷款，激励引导金融机构优化信贷投向。2025年三季度末，结构性货币政策工具余额占基础货 币的比重约13%。最新数据显示，9月末，支持做好金融"五篇大文章"的结构性货币政策工具 ...

其中关于2026年货币政策延续适度宽松的基调，显示出宏观政策保持很强的连续性、稳定性。除了 总量政策提出运用降准降息外，会议还要求畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 2025.12. 11 本文字数：769，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工 作。 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 史上最大的IPO要来了？ 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，着眼于做好"五篇大文章"，引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、 制造业转型升级、绿色发展、小微企业，以及促消费稳外贸等国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节，2026 年央行将优化用好各类结构性货币政策工具，总体上是"加量降价"，即结构性货币政策工具额度总 体上会增加，操作利率则会 ...

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.9%. However, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% from January to October [1] - The macroeconomic operation in October was influenced by factors such as slowing external demand, weakened domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time lag in the transmission of stable growth policies [1] High-tech Manufacturing Sector - The high-tech manufacturing sector showed strong growth, with the added value increasing by 7.2% year-on-year in October, outpacing the overall industrial growth [2] - From January to October, the investment in information services, aerospace, and computer equipment manufacturing grew by 32.7%, 19.7%, and 4.1% respectively [2] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in telecommunications and cultural office supplies, with growth rates of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively in October [2] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that stable growth policies will be further strengthened to support the macroeconomic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [3] - The focus of these policies will be on expanding domestic demand, releasing consumption potential, and increasing effective investment to counteract the impact of slowing external demand [3] - The government aims to stabilize the economy while fostering new productive forces for sustainable economic development [3]

Group 1 - The core achievements announced by XPeng Motors during the 2025 XPeng Technology Day include the introduction of a new self-developed humanoid robot system called IRON, three fully self-developed Robotaxi models starting trial operations in collaboration with Gaode, the release of the second-generation VLA large model achieving end-to-end generation from visual signals to action commands, and the launch of two flight systems to accelerate the commercialization of low-altitude travel [1] - The current automotive industry is undergoing a transition between old and new growth drivers, and the concentrated releases during XPeng Technology Day not only strengthen its leading image in the intelligent sector but also significantly boost market confidence in the new growth area of the automotive industry—intelligentization [1] - In the short term, these developments are expected to enhance market sentiment in the sector, while in the medium to long term, the iterative upgrades of the underlying models for intelligent driving and the acceleration of Robotaxi commercialization may lead to a new growth valuation cycle for the industry [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Automotive ETF (520720) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Index (931239), which selects listed companies involved in vehicle manufacturing, components, and emerging fields like intelligent driving, reflecting the overall performance of the automotive industry-related securities [2] - This index features high R&D investment and growth characteristics, with the vehicle manufacturing sector accounting for over 60% of its weight, demonstrating strong market elasticity and international characteristics [2] - The Hong Kong Automotive ETF (520720) can be traded directly through A-share accounts without the need for a Hong Kong Stock Connect account, addressing the pain point of ordinary investors lacking investment tools [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Jiangsu Free Trade Zone aims to significantly enhance the biopharmaceutical industry by 2030, focusing on innovation, modernization, and international collaboration [1] - The plan includes fostering key technology breakthroughs in areas such as macromolecular biopharmaceuticals, cell and gene therapy, and innovative medical devices [1] - Guoyuan Securities expresses optimism for the pharmaceutical industry in the second half of 2025, highlighting innovation drugs, overseas expansion, and the clearing of centralized procurement as key investment themes [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities notes that by 2025, the pharmaceutical industry will have transitioned to new growth drivers, with innovative drugs creating new growth trajectories for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2] - The report emphasizes the increasing overseas capabilities of Chinese companies, which are becoming significant sources of innovation for multinational corporations [2] - The aging population is driving demand for chronic disease treatments, contributing to the growth of the silver economy [2]

Group 1 - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology has issued a notice on the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Level Opening of High-Precision and Sophisticated Industries in Beijing (2025)", focusing on the implementation of the "Two Zones" policy and promoting the opening of the entire biopharmaceutical industry chain [1] - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to have multiple positive development factors by 2025, having completed the transition from old to new growth drivers, with innovation replacing generics and enhanced overseas capabilities [1] - Domestic innovative industries have reached a certain scale, with several pharmaceutical companies reaping the benefits of their innovation layouts [1] Group 2 - The ability to expand overseas continues to improve, with frequent license-outs of innovative drugs and devices, making Chinese companies a significant source of innovation for global multinational corporations [1] - The aging population is accelerating, leading to increased demand for chronic disease treatments such as cardiovascular, endocrine, and orthopedic conditions, contributing to the silver economy [1] - The medical insurance revenue and expenditure are steadily growing, with the medical insurance bureau actively promoting the development of commercial insurance to build a multi-tiered payment system [1] Group 3 - The market is entering a performance vacuum period starting in May, shifting focus from earnings to changes in industry and company fundamentals, with continued optimism for innovative drugs, overseas expansion, and the clearing of centralized procurement sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is entering a stage of results realization, with many research and development advancements that are not affected by trade frictions, expected to remain a key investment theme for the pharmaceutical sector in 2025 [2] - The pharmaceutical market in China is experiencing an accelerated increase in concentration, with mergers and acquisitions expected to accelerate [2]

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite external shocks in April, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [1][7] - The overall economic recovery is expected to continue, bolstered by favorable conditions and proactive measures from various sectors [1][6] Industrial Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing growth [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value rising by 10% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [2][3] - Key sectors such as 3D printing and industrial control systems experienced substantial production increases of 60.7% and 29.5%, respectively [2] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment in the first four months of the year increased by 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth [3] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 11.3%, indicating a strong focus on new productive forces and the transition of growth drivers [3] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a 5.1% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The total import and export value in April was 38,391 billion yuan, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5] - The resilience of domestic consumption is highlighted, with policies supporting consumer spending expected to strengthen further [4][5] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth [1][6] - The outlook for May suggests continued economic resilience, driven by enhanced policy measures and a focus on domestic demand [1][6]