在"一带一路"重要口岸城市新疆霍尔果斯，一场静悄悄的数字化变革正在农牧区悄然展开。近日，海证 期货有限公司投入4万元专项资金，支持霍尔果斯市农业农村局建设动物无纸化防疫系统，通过信息化 手段提升牲畜疫病防控能力，不仅强化了边境地区畜牧业生物安全屏障，更惠及119户脱贫人口，为边 疆乡村产业高质量发展注入科技动能。 此次帮扶体现了从"传统输血"向"科技赋能"的升级。海证期货并未止步于简单捐资，而是结合地方发展 需求，将金融企业的资源导向与现代农业治理现代化相结合，用"小投入"撬动"大效益"。未来，公司还 将依托《结对帮扶框架协议》，在农产品电商、期货知识普及、特色农业推广等方面持续提供支持。 "乡村振兴离不开科技支撑，"海证期货相关负责人表示，"我们希望通过这类'看不见但管长远'的项目， 帮助边疆地区夯实产业安全底座，让数字化真正成为农牧民增收的'新农具'。" 如今，在霍尔果斯广袤的牧场上，数字化防疫网络正织密筑牢。一头牛、一只羊的健康数据，不再沉睡 于泛黄的纸页，而是在云端守护着万千家庭的致富希望——这正是新时代社会力量参与乡村振兴的智慧 注脚。 长期以来，当地动物防疫工作依赖纸质档案和人工登记，存在信息更新 ...

二级市场的高溢价已引发监管与机构警惕。上海期货交易所于12月22日发布风险提示，对白银期货相关合约调整交易限额与手续 费。业内人士认为，当前溢价率不可持续，盲目追高的投资者可能同时承受白银价格回调与溢价收敛带来的"戴维斯双杀"。 白银价格上涨带动贵金属板块整体走强，传导至消费终端。有网友反映，用于婚嫁的铂金饰品在半月内由每克300多元涨至502 元，"结婚三金"预算大幅增加。市场情绪在狂热中渐显分化，部分前期投资者选择获利了结。广发期货等机构指出，随着监管强 化风控，铂、钯等贵金属短期可能出现回调。（陈十一） 伴随现货价格上涨，白银主题基金出现罕见高溢价。国投瑞银白银期货LOF公告显示，截至12月25日，其二级市场收盘价为2.804 元，较前一日基金份额净值1.9278元溢价高达45%。为平抑溢价、控制规模，该基金宣布自12月29日起，将A类份额单日申购上限 收紧至100元，C类份额暂停申购。 市场专业人士分析指出，该限购举措主要受制于交易所持仓上限与公募基金杠杆约束。基金规模已达承载极限，若继续放开申 购，新增资金将无法有效配置白银期货，导致跟踪误差扩大，构成合规风险。限购是基金管理人在制度框架下的被动风控 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring Sino-U.S. relations and highlights recent developments in China's economic policies and market performance, indicating a potential for continued market stability and growth in 2024 [2][8]. Group 1: Sino-U.S. Relations - The Ministry of Commerce of China firmly opposes the U.S. imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has raised serious concerns through the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism [2][8]. - China is actively promoting and facilitating compliant trade regarding export restrictions on rare earth magnets [2][8]. - The Chinese government aims for companies to reach solutions that align with Chinese laws and regulations concerning agreements signed by TikTok with investors [2][8]. Group 2: Capital Market Developments - The People's Bank of China proposed to utilize swap facilities and stock repurchase loans to maintain capital market stability, with plans to create two tools in October 2024, with initial quotas of 500 billion and 300 billion yuan respectively [2][8]. - As of December 25, the swap facility has been executed twice for a total of 105 billion yuan, while the upper limit for stock repurchase loans has reached 338.352 billion yuan [2][8]. Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed a continued upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.47% to close at 3959.62 points, marking seven consecutive days of gains [9]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.92 trillion yuan, with various sectors experiencing mixed performance [9]. - In the futures market, the basis for stock index futures continued to recover, while the trading volume for stock index futures decreased, indicating an increase in IH positions [9][10]. Group 4: Future Strategies - The targeted tools introduced by the central bank are expected to provide significant support to the market, with continued policy strength anticipated in the coming year [10]. - The rapid expansion of the CSI A500 ETF is injecting incremental funds into the market, suggesting that price increase logic and technology may become the main themes in market trading [10].

Market Analysis - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the "7" threshold for the first time in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB approached the same level, peaking at 7.0053 [2][14] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Israeli officials signal potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [2][14] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that the country is steadily approaching its 2% inflation target, with current real interest rates being very low, suggesting further rate hikes if economic conditions align with expectations [2][14] Futures Market and Trading Volume - On December 25, 2025, the main gold futures contract opened at 1013.94 CNY/g and closed at 1008.76 CNY/g, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 17,630.00 CNY/kg and closed at 17,397.00 CNY/kg, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of 1,313,979 contracts [15] Bond Market Monitoring - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.136%, with the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds at 0.63%, also unchanged [16] Holdings and Trading Volume Changes - On December 25, 2025, the Au2602 contract saw a decrease of 4,521 long positions and a decrease of 92 short positions, while the total trading volume for gold contracts was 307,456, down 37.41% from the previous day [17] - In silver, the Ag2602 contract experienced a reduction of 15,678 long positions and 14,342 short positions, with a total trading volume of 3,355,499 contracts, an increase of 1.64% [17] ETF Holdings Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.71 tons to 1,068.27 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,447 tons [18] Arbitrage Tracking - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -0.74 CNY/g, and for silver, it was -615.93 CNY/kg, with the gold-silver ratio at 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous day [19] Fundamental Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported gold trading volume of 28,920 kg, down 48.02%, and silver trading volume of 502,128 kg, down 50.32% [20] Investment Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is suggested, with expectations of a strong demand leading to a price range of 980 CNY/g to 1,080 CNY/g for the Au2602 contract [21] - For silver, a neutral outlook is maintained, with the price expected to remain strong due to tight supply, suggesting a trading range of 17,500 CNY/kg to 18,600 CNY/kg for the Ag2602 contract [22]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-26 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 止盈观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开单谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡筑底 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the integer mark of "7" during intraday trading, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate next year, but there will be no unilateral trend [7]. - After the collective frenzy of LOFs, the capital speculation subsided. On December 25, multiple LOFs either hit the daily limit down or fell sharply, and many fund companies announced the upgrade of LOF purchase restrictions [7]. - JD's 92% of employees will receive full or excess year - end bonuses, with the total investment in year - end bonuses increasing by more than 70% year - on - year. There have also been rumors of salary increases at companies like BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [8]. - The central bank over - renewed MLF and conducted outright reverse repurchases in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity. There is a possibility that the central bank may increase its purchase of treasury bonds to hedge against seasonal fluctuations in liquidity at the end of the month [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has made solemn representations to the US. China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding rare - earth magnet export restrictions [9]. - The A - share market showed a rebound pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving seven consecutive positive daily K - lines. The three major indices have all broken through their previous highs, but as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches the annual high, the pressure will increase [17][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Industry**: On December 26, among chemical products, 20 - number rubber, (PTA), asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil prices rose, while others such as coking coal, coke, and natural rubber fell [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: On December 26, most agricultural product prices rose, including yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, and cotton No. 1 [4]. 2. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 25, the sugar price fluctuated within a narrow range. There are both supply pressure and cost support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Corn**: On December 25, the corn price continued to fluctuate weakly. The market is in a stage of releasing supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak bottom - side oscillation [11]. - **Peanuts**: On December 25, the peanut futures price fluctuated slightly downward. The current supply of oil - type peanuts is loose, and the price may maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures price showed signs of stabilizing, maintaining a bottom - side oscillation pattern with weak rebound opportunities [11][12]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The futures price showed a strong performance, and the month - to - month spread reverse arbitrage should be held [12]. - **Cotton**: On December 25, the cotton price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's bullish factors are dominant, and it is recommended to consider going long at dips near the short - term moving average [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market maintains an oversupply pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Logs**: The log market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance at the pressure level, and if it cannot break through, consider range trading [13]. - **Pulp**: The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to maintain range oscillation [13]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price of offset printing paper has strongly broken through the key pressure level, and the short - term strength may continue [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum markets continue to operate at high levels, and attention should be paid to macro risks [13]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market maintains an oversupply pattern and may continue to operate weakly in the medium term [16]. Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The black - series market continues to oscillate and adjust, and the price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market showed a strong short - term trend, but high - level chasing is not recommended [16]. Others - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is at a high level, and the market volatility risk has increased. It is recommended to operate with caution [16][17]. 3. Option and Financial Market - **Stock Index Options**: On December 24, the three major A - share indices rose slightly. The trading volume PCR of some options decreased, and the weighted implied volatility decreased. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell the wide - straddle strategy to short volatility [17]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved seven consecutive positive daily K - lines, and the rebound pattern continues. As it approaches the annual high, the pressure will increase. It is recommended to focus on the policy main line to find investment opportunities [17][18].

Group 1 - The Guangdong Province has issued a comprehensive policy document titled "Guangdong Province's Work Plan for Promoting Financial Services for the Construction of a Strong Technological Province," aiming to enhance the financial system to support technological innovation and high-level self-reliance [1] - The plan introduces innovative mechanisms, including the integration of futures tools and a technology innovation index into the financial policy framework, marking a first in supporting the entire lifecycle of technological innovation [1] - Specific initiatives include the development of futures products related to strategic emerging industries, with a focus on refining the new energy futures sector and advancing the research and listing of lithium hydroxide futures [1] Group 2 - The futures products mentioned, such as lithium hydroxide and carbon emission rights, are part of the planning by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which has previously launched various futures and options to support green development industries [2] - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a key policy tool for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals, with the national carbon market expanding from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons in emission coverage this year, increasing the number of regulated enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700 [2] - The introduction of carbon emission futures and options is expected to enhance market liquidity and provide effective risk management tools for participants, thereby strengthening China's position in the international carbon market [3] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has nearly completed the design of the carbon emission futures contract and plans to proceed with its listing while focusing on foundational research and contract design [3] - Future efforts will concentrate on innovative fields such as new energy, new materials, and carbon emissions, with an emphasis on expanding product offerings and enhancing the application of weather indices in futures markets [3] - The exchange aims to strengthen market cultivation services, improve market regulation, and better support green development and initiatives like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative [3]

Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that starting from December 30, 2025, the price limit for coking coal and coke futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, while the trading margin levels will remain unchanged [1] - After the resumption of trading on January 5, 2026, the price limit for coking coal and coke futures contracts will revert to the pre-holiday standards on the first trading day when the largest contract by open interest does not experience a price limit with continuous quotes [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - WTI主力: Opened at $58.47, closed at $58.4, highest at $58.75, lowest at $58.13, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 9.64 million lots [6] - Brent主力: Opened at $61.97, closed at $61.84, highest at $62.22, lowest at $61.55, down 0.05%, with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots [6] - SC主力: Opened at 444 yuan/barrel, closed at 442.7 yuan/barrel, highest at 444.5 yuan/barrel, lowest at 440.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 4.59 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term fundamentals are neutral, and the market is trading the US sanctions on Venezuela. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in surplus, short positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoints - US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil directly affect about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types such as those from Russia or Iran [7] - Venezuelan export disruptions have a greater impact on the Chinese asphalt market than on the crude oil market. The asphalt situation can be used to judge Venezuelan exports [7] - Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continue to decline, refinery crude input reaches the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil products are relatively weak, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing. This is unfavorable for maintaining high refinery operations, and the data is neutral [7] - In the medium term, crude oil supply surplus will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [7] Group 4: Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to be the same as in 2024, about 516 million tons. Oil consumption has increased by more than 1 million barrels per day annually in the past two years, and may reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [8] - US officials: The White House has ordered its troops to focus almost entirely on enforcing isolation measures on Venezuelan sanctioned oil for at least the next two months [8] - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov: There is currently no plan to arrange a phone call between Putin and Trump [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data includes global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [11][12][14][21] - Data sources are EIA, Bloomberg, and wind, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]