晨会纪要（2025/07/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.08） 基金研究 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 行业研究 美越关税落地，"反内卷"下关注造纸行业修复机会——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 基金研究 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 本周，市场主要指数多数上调，沪深 300 在市盈率及市净率指数估值分位数方面涨幅居前。行业方面，31 个申万一级行业中 25 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业为钢铁、建筑材料、银行、医药生物和综合；跌幅前五 的行业为计算机、非银金融、美容护理、交通运输和商业贸易。 2、公募基金市场概况 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/07/08） 市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Qingshan Paper Co., Ltd. is utilizing part of its idle raised funds for cash management, specifically investing in structured deposits to enhance fund efficiency and increase overall company performance, thereby providing better returns for shareholders [1][2][10]. Cash Management Overview - Cash management is conducted through entrusted parties, namely China Everbright Bank and Bank of China, with a total amount of RMB 120 million allocated for structured deposits [1][2]. - The cash management aims to improve the efficiency of temporarily idle raised funds while ensuring the safety of the funds and the progress of investment projects [2][8]. Financial Details - The company has approved the use of up to RMB 600 million of temporarily idle raised funds for cash management within one year from the shareholders' meeting approval date [2][10]. - The structured deposits include products with varying terms, such as 90 days and 129 days, with expected annualized returns ranging from 0.6% to 2.00% [7][8]. Investment Projects - The company has shifted its investment focus from a previously stalled project to new projects, including a recovery technology upgrade and expansion of a pharmaceutical workshop, utilizing the remaining raised funds [4][5]. Recent Financial Indicators - As of March 31, 2025, the company's total assets were RMB 622.81 million, with total liabilities of RMB 188.58 million, resulting in a net asset value of RMB 434.23 million [9][10]. - The cash management investment of RMB 120 million represents 15.69% of the company's cash balance as of the latest reporting period [10]. Risk Management - The company has established internal controls to monitor the investment of idle funds, ensuring that the selected financial products are low-risk and do not affect the normal operation of the fundraising projects [7][9].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growth certainty amidst fluctuations in the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the export chain narrative becoming clearer [2] - The report highlights the stability in paper prices and the potential recovery in the pulp and paper sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and suggests that this may lead to a recovery in order placements [3] - The report notes the challenges in the new tobacco sector due to increased compliance scrutiny in the U.S. and suggests potential beneficiaries of this trend [4] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors including e-commerce, electrical lighting, and home furnishings, indicating growth opportunities and strategic expansions [7][9][10] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are stabilizing with South American bleached eucalyptus pulp prices at $500-510 per ton, and domestic pulp mills are facing rising costs [2] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe are recommended for their integrated pulp and paper operations and profitability improvements [2] Exports - The recent tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to enhance order placements and stabilize the export chain [3] - Companies with strong global layouts and those facing short-term performance pressures are highlighted for potential investment [3] New Tobacco - The U.S. FDA is increasing compliance checks, leading to a significant drop in e-cigarette shipments, which may benefit compliant companies [4] E-commerce - "Jiao Ge Peng You" reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a successful technology-driven retail strategy [7] Electrical Lighting & Smart Home - Bull Group's international strategy is yielding results with significant sales in Germany, while other companies are exploring high-end markets [9] Home Furnishings - The launch of new product systems by "Bei Wo" and the anticipated restart of national subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence in home furnishings [10] Consumer Products - The report notes a divergence in growth trends within the personal care sector, with certain brands showing strong performance [11] Gold and Jewelry - The demand for boutique gold jewelry is strengthening, with stable gold prices expected to support overall industry recovery [12][13] Two-Wheel Vehicles - Tao Tao Vehicle's strong profit forecast indicates growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [14] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Xiao Shang Pin Cheng and Ji Hong are expected to perform well as tariff uncertainties diminish [15] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on functional and differentiated materials [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent increase in control change announcements among listed companies, highlighting both successful and terminated attempts at control changes and their impact on stock prices. Group 1: Control Change Announcements - Recently, there has been a surge in control change announcements among listed companies, with companies like Changling Hydraulic, Shangwei New Materials, and Hangzhou High-tech announcing plans for control changes within a week [2] - Some companies have terminated their control change plans due to disagreements on key terms, with three companies announcing terminations since June [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to control change terminations has been mixed, with stock prices fluctuating. For instance, Songyang Resources announced the termination of its control change plan after failing to reach an agreement, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [3] - After the announcement, Songyang Resources' stock opened lower, hitting a low of 13.25 yuan per share, with a maximum decline of 9.55%, ultimately closing down 6.48% [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Songyang Resources reported a revenue of 727 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%, but also recorded a net loss of 236 million yuan, marking its third consecutive year of losses [5] - The cumulative net loss for Songyang Resources from 2022 to 2024 reached 750 million yuan, attributed to fluctuations in the paper industry, which is transitioning from a downturn to recovery [5] - The company anticipates improved market demand in the paper industry due to the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and favorable policies [5] Group 4: Other Terminations - Haiwang Bio announced the termination of its control change plan after a year of planning, which resulted in a slight initial drop in stock price, followed by a recovery [6] - Kede Education also terminated its control change plan after a month of planning, with its stock price rising by 1.45% the following trading day [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the export chain is recovering, and leading companies are expected to grow without issues. The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to have a controllable impact on tariffs, enhancing the competitive advantage of companies with established overseas production capacities [3][9] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xiangxin Home, Zhongxin Co., Zhejiang Natural, Yongyi Co., Jiayi Co., and Hars for potential investment opportunities [3][9] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize as the industry adjusts to recent conditions. Companies like Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the improving industry landscape [6] - The report notes that the second quarter has seen a gradual recovery in factory orders, with many companies currently valued at historical lows, suggesting a good opportunity for investment [6] Paper and Packaging - As of July 4, 2025, prices for various paper products remain stable, with double glue paper at 5125 CNY/ton and copper plate paper at 5400 CNY/ton [6][47] - The report highlights that several paper companies have announced price increases for corrugated paper, indicating a positive trend in the sector [6] - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies like Nine Dragons and Sun Paper, which are well-positioned in the paper industry [6] Light Industry Consumption - The report emphasizes the growth potential of companies like Sturdy Medical and Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from brand strength and product upgrades [6] - The entertainment products sector is also noted for its growth, with companies like Morning Glory expected to see a recovery in operations [6] Export Chain - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to reduce risks for companies in the export chain, particularly those with global supply chain layouts [9] - Companies such as Zhongxin Co., Zhejiang Natural, and Xiangxin Home are recommended for their strong positions in the export market [9] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is highlighted for its potential growth, particularly for companies that have established overseas production capabilities [9] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which are well-integrated in their operations [9]

Group 1 - Recent changes in control rights among A-share companies have been frequently observed, with some companies terminating their plans for various reasons [1] - Three listed companies have officially announced the termination of control right changes since June, attracting widespread market attention [1] - The market reaction to the termination of control right changes has been mixed, with stock price movements varying among the affected companies [1] Group 2 - Songyang Resources announced the termination of its control right change plan due to the inability to reach an agreement on key terms between the controlling shareholder and the counterparty [3] - Following the announcement, Songyang Resources' stock price fell by 6.48% after resuming trading, with a maximum drop of 9.55% during the session [3] - The company reported a revenue of 727 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%, but faced a net loss of 236 million yuan, marking the third consecutive year of losses [3] Group 3 - Haiwang Bio announced the termination of its control right change plan after reaching an agreement with its controlling shareholder, resulting in a slight initial drop in stock price followed by a rebound [4] - Kede Education also terminated its control right change plan, with its stock price rising by 1.45% in the following trading session after the announcement [4] - The increase in control right change plans among listed companies contrasts with the terminations, indicating a complex and uncertain operational environment for shareholders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed an investment agreement for a new integrated bamboo pulp and high-performance paper-based materials project in Sichuan, with a total planned investment of approximately 11 billion yuan, aiming to produce 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper annually [2][3]. Investment and Expansion Plans - The project will be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan to produce 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper [3]. - The second phase will also require an investment of approximately 5.5 billion yuan, with similar production targets as the first phase [3]. - The company aims to achieve the first phase's production within three years from the start of construction, while the second phase will depend on market conditions and operational performance [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.11%, and a net profit of 1.004 billion yuan, up 51.23% [4]. - However, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, but a net profit decline of 33.7% [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, but a net profit decrease of 12.1% [4]. Debt and Financial Pressure - The company's debt levels have been increasing, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.49% as of March 2025, up from 32.46% in 2020 [7]. - Long-term borrowings rose from 3.409 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.923 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with interest expenses increasing significantly [7]. - The company has a short-term liquidity challenge, with cash on hand of 895 million yuan against short-term borrowings of 2.037 billion yuan [7]. Strategic Rationale for Expansion - The company is expanding based on national policies promoting the use of bamboo as a substitute for plastic and aims to reduce reliance on imported raw materials [5]. - The bamboo resource is renewable and aligns with environmental trends, with the first phase expected to generate an annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of 450 million yuan [5]. - The company is focusing on high-performance paper-based materials to avoid market homogenization and strengthen its competitive advantage [5]. Financing Strategies - The company plans to finance the new project through bank loans, diversified financing, and operational cash flow from existing projects [8]. - It aims to enhance its debt repayment capacity through increased cash flow from the new projects and is expected to receive preferential treatment for green financing due to alignment with national strategies [8]. - The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake by 300 million to 500 million yuan to boost market confidence [8].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the registration of propylene futures and options at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, ensuring a smooth launch and stable operation [1] - The second batch of 11 floating fee funds has been submitted for approval, including 2 stock funds and 9 mixed equity funds, focusing on themes such as high-end equipment, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing [2] - Multiple quantitative private equity firms have clarified that the rumor regarding high-frequency trading frequency being limited to 30 times per second is false, as the current regulatory standards remain unchanged [2] Group 2 - GGII reported that in the first five months of 2025, global power battery installations reached approximately 369.8 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 35%, driven by a 28% increase in global new energy vehicle sales [3] - Several paper companies have raised the price of corrugated paper by 30 yuan per ton, indicating a normal adjustment range as the industry gradually recovers [3] - IDC predicts that by 2028, the market size for security intelligent agents in China will reach $1.6 billion, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 230% [4] Group 3 - Xinhua Insurance has invested 11.25 billion yuan to subscribe to the National Fengxinghua Honghu Zhiyuan Phase III private equity fund, which has a total fund size of 22.5 billion yuan [7] - Anhui Construction has won three projects with a total bid price of 9.156 billion yuan, including a highway project with an estimated total investment of 7.487 billion yuan [8] - Times New Material has signed sales contracts for wind turbine blades worth approximately 2.711 billion yuan, covering both offshore and onshore wind power [9] Group 4 - Chip Motion Technology expects a net profit increase of 144.46% to 199.37% for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue growth of 66.04% to 102.45% [10] - Pulit anticipates a net profit increase of 38.88% to 66.65% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 200 million to 240 million yuan [11] - Haitong Development expects a net profit decrease of 60.78% to 69.04% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 7.5 million to 9.5 million yuan [12] - Whirlpool forecasts a net profit increase of approximately 559% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of about 205 million yuan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese paper industry is entering a critical development phase amid global green low-carbon transformation and industrial chain restructuring, with APP (China) setting a benchmark through its integrated "forest-pulp-paper" model and sustainable practices [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Development - APP (China) has established a "forest-pulp-paper" integrated green circular industry chain, promoting ecological forestry, environmentally friendly pulping, and green paper production since its entry into China in 1992 [1]. - The company emphasizes the importance of stable supply chains for enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness, especially in the face of global supply chain challenges [8]. Group 2: Participation in Events - APP (China) participated in the second China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo, showcasing its achievements in green value chains and digital innovation, and signed a cooperation memorandum with several financial institutions, marking a new paradigm of "finance + manufacturing" collaboration [3][5]. - The company plans to present its latest cooperation results and practices at the upcoming third expo, aiming to expand its network and enhance technological service exchanges [7]. Group 3: Investment and Projects - APP (China) has initiated a special paper project in Hainan with an investment of approximately 870 million yuan, which aims to introduce modern production lines and low-carbon processes, contributing to the green industrial development of Hainan Free Trade Port [8]. - Continuous technological upgrades and capacity optimization are enhancing the company's competitiveness in high-end paper products, meeting the growing demand for high-quality, environmentally friendly paper products in domestic and international markets [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As a "chain master" enterprise, APP (China) is committed to deepening its "forest-pulp-paper" model and leveraging its supply chain management system to lead the paper industry towards a stronger and more sustainable future [10].