Group 1 - Ming Tai Aluminum Industry (SH 601677) announced that on August 24, it accepted an investor survey with participation from Vice General Manager and Board Secretary Lei Peng [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, the revenue composition of Ming Tai Aluminum is as follows: aluminum plates and strips account for 80.03%, aluminum foil for 16.2%, other businesses for 1.67%, and aluminum alloy rail vehicle bodies for 0.56% [1] - As of the report date, Ming Tai Aluminum's market capitalization is 16.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive days, indicating strong market activity [1] - Major industry players are actively recruiting for the autumn season, with 25 job positions available, highlighting a demand for talent in the sector [1]

闽发铝业8月25日披露的半年报显示，公司上半年实现营业收入7.75亿元，同比下降24.89%；归属于上 市公司股东的净利润293.57万元，同比下降81.13%；基本每股收益0.0031元。 ...

闽发铝业公告，公司原计划以自有资金与甘肃中盛铝业有限公司共同出资设立甘肃闽发铝业有限公司， 注册资本为500万元人民币，其中公司出资350万元，持有其70%的股份。但由于综合考虑各种相关因 素，公司已于2025年8月22日决定终止设立该控股子公司。截至公告披露日，甘肃闽发尚未办理相关工 商登记手续，且公司尚未实际出资，因此终止该项对外投资不会对公司造成不利影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that China Hongqiao's stock price has over an 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days due to favorable market conditions and company actions [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, which positively impacted commodity prices [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption off-season is expected to lead to increased demand during the consumption peak season [1] - Lower inventory levels and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts are anticipated to support aluminum prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Actions - China Hongqiao recently announced a stock buyback, which is expected to drive the stock price up in the short term [1]

2025 年 8 月 25 日 鲍威尔鸽派提振 铝价震荡偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转 鸽，市场开始演绎降息交易，美元走弱，同时欧美制 造业PMI皆有回暖，需求预期略有修复。基本面，电 解铝产能仍然主要为产能置换，整体开工变化不大。 消费端即将进入旺季下游补库意愿上升，同时周初 铝价一度回落，下游接货积极性抬升。周内铝锭社会 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Different commodities are expected to have different trends such as range - bound trading, upward trends, or downward trends [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The JH meeting saw Powell adopt a dovish stance. Gold prices showed certain movements, with Comex gold 2510 rising 1.00% to 3417.20. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is expected to reach the previous high. Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, copper prices rose. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.18% to 78,650, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.16% to 22275, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][14][17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.21% to 16780, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][20][24]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation has slowed down. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20630, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: It is in narrow - range bound trading. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,610, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in short - term low - level range - bound trading. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,750, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related**: No direct crude oil analysis, but related products are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend is obvious, and the short - term strength will continue [2][55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market has a slight rebound [2][55]. - **LPG**: Import costs provide support, but the supply - demand situation lacks obvious improvement [2][51]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in range - bound trading, and the strategy is to go long on dips. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **PTA and PX**: They are both in an upward - trending state and suitable for positive spreads. PX rose 0.11% to 6966, and PTA rose 0.16% to 4868 [2][59]. - **MEG**: It is in an upward - trending state, rising 0.02% to 4474 [2][59]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The negative impact of the US soybean oil SRE has been digested, and international oil prices have risen [2][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in high - level range - bound trading [2][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans rose slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][65]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors, and the trend intensity is 2 [2][41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are both in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][52][54]. - **Log**: It is in repeated fluctuations, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][55][58].

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on Shanghai Aluminum (August 18 - 22) - Author: Zhu Senlin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, adjusted, and declined last week, with the main contract falling 0.67% to close at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - Under the goal of carbon neutrality, long - term capacity control, weak demand in the domestic real estate market, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices [3] - Domestically, demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract declined 0.67% last week, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - LME inventory was 478,725 tons last week, showing a slight decrease from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory increased by 3,952 tons to 124,605 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [10] 2.2 Other Elements - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not detailed [6] 3. Market Structure - The market structure section includes the analysis of the basis and import profit, but specific data is not provided [25]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has given a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 29.0, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 81.039 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%; gross profit reached CNY 20.805 billion, a significant increase of 16.9%, with a gross margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.361 billion, reflecting a strong year-on-year growth of 35.0%, with a net profit margin increase of 3.1 percentage points to 16.7% [1] - Basic earnings per share surged by 36.0% to CNY 1.31 [1] Group 2: Cost Advantages and Operational Efficiency - The company benefits from stable upstream bauxite supply, with 75.3% sourced from Guinea, ensuring raw material cost advantages [2] - Midstream, the electrolytic aluminum sales reached 2.906 million tons, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, driven by optimized energy structure, low-carbon technology reducing energy consumption, and digital empowerment [2] - Downstream, aluminum alloy processing sales were 392,000 tons, with revenue growth of 6.5% to CNY 8.074 billion, achieving bulk delivery of high value-added products [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the global electrolytic aluminum market showed a tight balance between supply and demand, with China's primary aluminum production accounting for approximately 59.7% of global output and consumption at 62.6%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.2% and 1.1% respectively [3] - Growth in sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles has significantly contributed to domestic demand [3] - It is expected that electrolytic aluminum prices will remain in the range of CNY 20,600 to 21,300 per ton, while alumina prices will be between CNY 3,200 and 3,300, indicating an overall trend of rising prices due to supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having repurchased 1.87 billion shares for HKD 2.61 billion in the first half of the year, which directly enhances earnings per share [4] - The company has committed to maintaining the dividend payout ratio at the 2024 level for 2025 and announced a new repurchase plan of no less than HKD 3 billion, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future development [4]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has issued a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), predicting revenue growth from 156 billion RMB in 2025 to 167.4 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit increasing from 24.5 billion RMB to 25.8 billion RMB during the same period, and a target price of 29.0 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 81.039 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with gross profit reaching 20.805 billion RMB, up 16.9%, and a gross margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.361 billion RMB, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 35.0%, with a net profit margin increase of 3.1 percentage points to 16.7% [2] - Basic earnings per share surged by 36.0% to 1.31 RMB [2] Group 2: Cost Advantages and Operational Efficiency - The company benefits from a stable supply of bauxite, with 75.3% sourced from Guinea, ensuring raw material cost advantages [3] - The midstream electrolytic aluminum sales reached 2.906 million tons, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, driven by optimized energy structure, low-carbon technology, and digital empowerment [3] - Downstream aluminum alloy processing sales were 392,000 tons, with revenue growth of 6.5% to 8.074 billion RMB, highlighting the successful delivery of high-value-added products [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global electrolytic aluminum market showed a tight balance between supply and demand in the first half of 2025, with China's primary aluminum production accounting for approximately 59.7% of global output and consumption at 62.6% [4] - The demand from sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles has contributed significantly to domestic demand growth [4] - It is expected that electrolytic aluminum prices will remain in the range of 20,600 to 21,300 RMB per ton, while alumina prices will stay between 3,200 to 3,300 RMB, indicating an overall upward price trend [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has prioritized shareholder returns, spending 2.61 billion HKD to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, which directly enhances earnings per share [5] - The company has committed to maintaining the dividend payout ratio at the 2024 level for 2025 and announced a new repurchase plan of no less than 3 billion HKD, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), citing improved macro sentiment and revised aluminum price assumptions for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 240 billion, 242 billion, and 269 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao achieved operating revenue of 81.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [1] - The company reported sales volumes for electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum processing products at 2.906 million, 6.368 million, and 392 thousand tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.4%, 15.6%, and 3.5% [1] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margins for electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum processing products were 25.2%, 28.8%, and 23.3%, reflecting increases of 0.6 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points, and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by rising prices [1] - The company's share of profits from joint ventures reached 1.8 billion yuan, significantly up from 800 million yuan in the same period last year, surpassing the total of 1.76 billion yuan for the entire previous year [2] Group 3: Share Buyback and Market Confidence - As of the first half of 2025, the company had repurchased and canceled 187 million shares for a total amount of 2.4 billion yuan, with a new buyback plan announced totaling no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars [3] - The ongoing buyback activity, which has reached a historical high in 2025, reflects the company's confidence in its future development [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is nearing capacity in China, while overseas production faces high construction costs and long timelines, leading to a supply growth rate of around 1% [4] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow by 2-3% due to factors such as renewable energy, grid construction, and packaging consumption, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [4]