Core Viewpoint - Innovation International Industrial Group Limited has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China has a high concentration, with a domestic CR5 of 45.3% and a global CR5 of approximately 30% [2] - The main trend in the industry is the "green electricity transformation," with policies requiring that by 2025, the use of green electricity in electrolytic aluminum should exceed 25% [3] Group 2: Company Structure and Operations - The founder, Cui Lixin, holds 100% of Innovation International through a BVI company, indicating a highly concentrated ownership structure prior to the IPO [4] - The company's main products include electrolytic aluminum (85% of revenue in 2024) and alumina (12.2% of revenue in 2024) [5] - Innovation International has a clear integrated layout covering energy (self-owned power plants), alumina refining, and electrolytic aluminum smelting, with self-sufficiency rates of 88% for electricity and 84% for alumina in 2024 [6] Group 3: Market Position and Financial Performance - By production volume in 2024, Innovation International ranks as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, with a market share of 1.8% [11] - The company has a significant cost advantage, with cash costs in the top 5% in China and top 30% globally [10] - The company’s revenue from its largest customer, Innovation New Materials, accounted for over 70% of total revenue, indicating a high customer concentration risk [12] Group 4: Financial Health and Challenges - The company's net profit for the first five months of 2025 was 856 million yuan, a decrease of 14.4% year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material costs [13] - The operating cash flow has shown fluctuations, with negative investment cash flow due to expansion investments [14] - The company has a weak debt structure, with short-term debt accounting for 74% of total debt as of May 2025 [15] Group 5: Future Plans and Risks - Innovation International plans to raise funds through the IPO to expand capacity, including a $277 million investment in a new electrolytic aluminum smelting plant in Saudi Arabia [21] - The company aims to allocate 40% of the IPO proceeds to green energy projects, targeting over 50% clean energy usage by 2027 [21] - Risks include high customer concentration, short-term debt repayment pressure, and uncertainties related to overseas projects [21]

Group 1 - The July Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, emphasizing the need for "solid foundation and comprehensive efforts" for achieving socialist modernization [12][13] - The macro policy focus has shifted from "quantity" to "quality," with the removal of phrases like "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," indicating a more cautious approach to economic stimulus [12][13] - The "de-rolling" policy has been officially defined, with a focus on "key industries" and a shift away from real estate-related discussions, reflecting a new development model in the real estate sector [13] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [14] - Recent supply-demand policies have led to price increases in some commodities, which may boost PPI expectations; however, historical data suggests that price increases driven by strong reality tend to be more sustainable than those driven by strong expectations [14][15] Group 3 - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs, but the long-term risks associated with reciprocal tariffs should not be underestimated, as the situation remains fluid and subject to change [17][20] - The trade talks have not yielded unexpected results, merely postponing risk points by 90 days, and the experience from the 2018 trade war indicates that the US stance can be unpredictable [20] Group 4 - The A-share market has seen a significant improvement in liquidity, with financing balances exceeding 2024 levels, indicating a potential for continued market performance [22] - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is characterized by a "see-saw" effect, where funds are shifting from the bond market to the stock market, driven by improved expectations for fundamentals [22][23] Group 5 - The overall profit expectations for A-shares in 2025 are likely to be weak, with a downward trend expected in the second and third quarters, followed by a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [25] - The profit growth in A-shares is primarily driven by year-on-year net profit margin increases, while revenue growth remains under pressure, indicating a challenging demand environment [25][27] Group 6 - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures in August are expected to enhance the importance of performance trading, with stocks showing high growth and strong opening characteristics likely to yield good returns [30] - Key industries to focus on in August include motorcycles and others, optical electronics, traditional Chinese medicine, lighting equipment, and agriculture [30][36] Group 7 - The recommended stocks for August include Lu'an Huanneng, which is positioned as a top choice for coking coal due to its resilient demand and potential for production capacity increases [37][38] - China Aluminum is highlighted for its strong position in the global aluminum industry, with expected profit increases driven by rising production volumes [37]

Core Points - The U.S. government has announced new "reciprocal tariffs" that will take effect on August 7, following President Trump's executive order signed on July 31 [1][2] - The new tariff rates reflect a more protectionist and isolationist trade policy, with significant implications for global trade dynamics [1][11] - The average tariff rate is expected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% [6] Tariff Rates Summary - The maximum tariff rate is set at 41%, with a general rate of 10% for countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. [2] - Countries with a trade deficit will face a minimum tariff rate of 15%, affecting approximately 40 countries [2][3] - Specific countries have been assigned varying tariff rates, with Cambodia's rate dropping from 49% to 19%, while Switzerland's rate increased from 31% to 39% [4][3] Impact on Trade Partners - Canada will see its tariff rate increase from 25% to 35%, which has been met with disappointment from Canadian officials [5][4] - The U.S. has implemented a 40% additional penalty on goods deemed to be transshipped from high-tariff countries to low-tariff countries [3][4] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly impact industries such as textiles and automotive in affected countries [4][5] Negotiation and Agreements - The U.S. has only reached a limited number of trade agreements, with only 7 out of over 200 proposed agreements finalized [7][9] - Recent agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea have resulted in reduced tariff rates, but many details remain under negotiation [8][9] - The ongoing negotiations with China have resulted in a temporary extension of tariff suspensions, indicating a complex and evolving trade landscape [10][13] Legal and Economic Implications - Trump's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, with questions raised about the extent of presidential power in modifying tariff rates without congressional approval [11][12] - Economists warn that the new tariffs could have long-term negative effects on the global economy, particularly for Asian economies [13]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - A significant block trade of China Aluminum occurred on August 1, with a transaction volume of 270,700 shares and a transaction value of 2,000,500 yuan, at a price of 7.39 yuan per share, indicating active trading interest in the stock [2][3]. Trading Activity - In the last three months, China Aluminum has recorded a total of four block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 26,553,100 yuan [3]. - On the same day, the closing price of China Aluminum was 7.39 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.54%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.73% and a total trading volume of 713 million yuan [3]. - The net outflow of main funds for the day was 95,959,700 yuan, and over the past five days, the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 4.27% with a total net outflow of 412 million yuan [3]. Margin Trading Data - The latest margin financing balance for China Aluminum stands at 2,322 million yuan, with a decrease of 28,587,300 yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 1.22% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The operating capacity continues to rise, and the daily output reaches new highs, leading to an expected increase in overall supply and a persistent oversupply outlook. Although consumption also increases to some extent, the increment is relatively limited. Short - term spot prices may remain firm due to local supply shortages, but with the cooling of speculative sentiment driven by policy expectations, domestic alumina prices are likely to weaken. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts, overseas mine disturbances, and the specific measures of the new round of the "Ten Key Industries Stable Growth Work Plan" [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the supply side, there is only a small net increase in addition to replacement capacity. On the demand side, different sectors show obvious differentiation. The automotive industry will still be the main driving force for aluminum demand in August, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and aluminum use in real estate and home appliances exerts a certain drag. Apparent consumption is expected to decline year - on - year from July to August, but there are expectations for the consumption peak season in September. It is predicted that aluminum ingot inventories will reach the peak of off - season inventory accumulation in the range of 560,000 - 600,000 tons around mid - August. In the short term, affected by the further decline in the September interest - rate cut expectation and the fall in alumina futures prices, aluminum prices are weak, with a support level at 20,000. In the long run, factors such as low inventory and supply constraints support an upward shift in the price center. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high. Affected by the US tariff on aluminum and the exemption of scrap aluminum, the import of US scrap aluminum increases. Coupled with Thailand's suspension of issuing licenses to recycling factories, China's scrap aluminum imports may decline in the future, and scrap aluminum prices still have room to rise, strongly supporting the aluminum alloy price. The fundamentals of casting aluminum alloy are good, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The futures market generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between the two is basically between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. When the price difference widens, an arbitrage operation of going long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai aluminum can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Review (Part 02)** - In July, alumina futures prices fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.94%. Electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 [8][9]. **3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects (Part 03)** - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries and regions, with the base rate remaining at 10%, and most countries having rates within 20% except Canada [12][13]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell's attitude was hawkish. Two Fed governors opposed maintaining the interest rate and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. The Fed is still weighing the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may further decline due to strong US economic and employment data [15][17][19]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate increased by 3%. The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year in June. The strong economic and employment data indicate that there is still a risk of inflation rising, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further adjusted downward [19]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's second - quarter GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24.8654 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points seasonally. The Politburo meeting emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force in the second half of the year, and a series of policies are expected to support industrial product prices [25]. **3.3 Fundamental Aspects (Part 04)** - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is relatively loose despite some disturbances. In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, production in some regions was restricted by rainfall. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy - season impact led to a decline in July's bauxite shipments. However, China's bauxite imports increased significantly in the first half of the year, and port inventories also increased, so the import price is expected to have limited rebound [27][32]. - **Alumina Supply and Demand**: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, reaching a new high for the year. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina and imported 101,000 tons. The supply is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Low warehouse receipts support alumina futures prices, but attention should be paid to the changes in speculative sentiment [35][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains high profits, with an expected profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. The supply may increase slightly, but overall changes are not significant. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity has no obvious changes recently, and if all overseas capacity is put into production as scheduled, the output growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% from 2026 - 2027 [42][45][50]. - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Processing Enterprises**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors show different trends, and the aluminum foil sector may reduce production in August. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August [54]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In June, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity decreased, but the power grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, driving the demand for aluminum rods [59]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various indicators such as new construction area and completion area also declined [62]. - **Automotive Industry**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The automotive industry is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption growth [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In August, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.9% year - on - year. Although the production plan of air conditioners still shows a year - on - year decline, the decline is expected to narrow [70]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventories have rebounded to a more than three - and - a - half - month high, and SHFE aluminum inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the increase is within the seasonal range, and the current inventory level is still relatively low [73][76]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight. The price is supported by factors such as import restrictions, limited domestic supply growth, and concentrated procurement by large enterprises. The price is expected to rise, and the price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [80][83].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Monthly Report (July 2025) [2] - Author: Fan Ling - Report Date: August 1, 2025 - Institution: AVIC Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand dynamics of raw materials and finished products, and downstream consumption trends. The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation. In the short - term, the aluminum price may fluctuate within a certain range, with support at 20,000 yuan/ton. Long - term trends depend on the implementation of policies, the recovery of downstream consumption, and the balance of supply and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, the alumina futures price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 7.94%. The electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" with a base rate of 10%, and most countries' rates are within 20% [9][10]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic and employment data are strong, with inflation still at risk of rising. The strong economic fundamentals make the mutual exclusivity of a strong economy and interest rate cuts gradually apparent, and the expectation of a September interest rate cut may be further reduced [13][14]. - **Domestic Economy**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of stable - growth policies. The manufacturing PMI and GDP growth rate show certain trends, and the government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is disturbed but relatively loose. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy season affected the shipment volume in July. However, the large increase in imports in the first half of the year and high available inventory, along with the resumption of production in previously shut - down mines, make the price of imported bauxite expected to have limited rebound [20][24]. - **Alumina Supply**: The expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. As of late July, the national alumina production capacity and operating capacity increased, and the operating capacity reached a new high for the year. The increase in production capacity is mainly due to the expansion of a medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong. In the future, with the commissioning of alumina production capacity in Indonesia and the possible opening of the import window, the import volume of alumina may increase [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to maintain high profits. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is significantly higher than that of upstream alumina and downstream aluminum products industries, and the supply is rigid. The utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%, and new production capacity is limited in the future due to the capacity ceiling. The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased in the first half of the year, and some capacity replacement projects were put into operation in July [32][36]. - **Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has no significant change recently. The 50 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of PT KALIMANTAN in Indonesia will be put into production in stages, with 10 tons expected to be put into production in 2025 and full production in 2027. If all overseas production capacity is put into operation as scheduled, the production growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% in 2026 - 2027 [38][39]. 3.4 Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Processing**: The average operating rate of downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly. Different sectors have different trends. For example, the aluminum foil sector has a production - reduction expectation in August, and the building materials sector continues to be in the off - season. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August, while the terminal consumption of primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors is difficult to improve significantly in August [41][42]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry is still weak. The new construction area, completion area, and investment in real estate development all decreased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and the real estate sector is still in the process of destocking [46][48]. - **Automobile Industry Demand**: The use of aluminum in the automobile industry will maintain a high - growth trend. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. Although the new - energy vehicle industry faces some growth - slowdown pressure, multiple favorable factors in the second half of the year will help drive automobile consumption growth, which will also drive the demand for aluminum [49][51]. - **Home Appliance Industry Demand**: The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The production schedule of air - conditioners in August decreased compared with the same period last year, but the decline rate has converged. High - temperature weather and replacement subsidies have promoted the sales of air - conditioners and reduced the inventory [52][54]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Inventories**: The inventories of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) increased. The LME aluminum inventory reached a new high in more than three and a half months, and the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks [55][56]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventories**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the increase did not exceed the seasonal level, and the current inventory level is still relatively low, which still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm in August [58][59]. 3.6 Other Market Features - **Scrap Aluminum Market**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight, and the price is firm. The reasons include limited imports, limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and the procurement preference of large enterprises for large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers [61][62]. - **Price Difference between Electrolytic Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: The price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, mainly because the downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, while the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is relatively slow and that of domestic aluminum alloy social inventory is relatively fast [64][65].

Group 1: Fund and Regulatory Developments - The second batch of floating fee funds has begun issuance, with three products set to launch on August 4, 2023, including a 3 billion yuan fundraising cap for one product [1] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation has officially come into effect on August 1, 2023, establishing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers to enhance regulatory oversight of virtual asset activities [1] Group 2: Market and IPO Updates - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is proposing new rules allowing IPO applicants to choose between two distribution mechanisms, with the maximum percentage for public subscription being increased from 20% to 35% under one mechanism [2] - SensorTower forecasts that the global gaming market is expected to exceed $120 billion by 2028, with mobile game in-app purchase revenue projected to grow significantly [2] Group 3: Consumer and Entertainment Impact - Concerts, such as those by Jay Chou, have significantly boosted local consumption, with a reported ratio of 1 yuan spent on tickets generating 4.8 yuan in surrounding spending [3] - The performance of the concert industry is driving diverse consumer spending in urban areas, as evidenced by increased hotel bookings during major events [3] Group 4: Corporate Financial Performance - Apple CEO Tim Cook reported an $800 million loss due to tariffs, with an expected increase in costs of $1.1 billion for the current quarter [4] - Hanma Technology reported a 42.69% year-on-year increase in truck sales for July 2023, with production also seeing a significant rise [8] - Chipone Technology anticipates a revenue of approximately 584 million yuan for Q2 2023, marking a 49.90% quarter-on-quarter growth [11] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions - Yabton Chemical has signed a 10-year strategic supply agreement with Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine to enhance collaboration in pharmaceutical intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients [9] - Apple has acquired approximately seven companies this year, focusing on various sectors, not limited to AI [4] Group 6: Real Estate and Land Acquisition - Hangzhou Garden has successfully bid 130 million yuan for land use rights in Yuhang District, planning to develop a smart ecological design R&D headquarters [10]

Group 1 - On August 1, China Aluminum conducted a bulk transaction of 270,700 shares, with a transaction amount of 2,000,500 yuan, accounting for 0.28% of the total transaction amount for the day [1] - The transaction price was 7.39 yuan, which was flat compared to the market closing price of 7.39 yuan [1] - The buying brokerage firms involved were Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. and CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be at a stage where supply remains high but growth slows, and demand is weak due to the off - season, with slightly accumulated inventory, and the long - term outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization [6]. - Suggest light - position oscillating trading for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum and light - position short - selling trading for the main contract of Alumina when prices are high, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 1.2%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated downward, with a weekly change of - 7.76%, closing at 3,162 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina is expected to have a slowdown in supply growth and stable demand. Electrolytic aluminum supply will remain high but with a slowdown in growth, and demand will be weak due to the off - season [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position oscillating trading for Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and light - position short - selling trading for Alumina's main contract when prices are high, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from July 25. Alumina's futures price was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 213 yuan/ton (- 6.18%). Cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 19,920 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton (- 1.07%) [11][14]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's position was 577,815 lots, down 77,532 lots (- 11.83%) from July 25. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 8,454 lots [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,810 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from July 25. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,890 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.62%); in Shanxi, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%); in Guiyang, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%). The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton (- 0.99%). The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,490 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton (- 1.49%), with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][29][32]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 461,025 tons, up 12,925 tons (2.88%); as of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons (1.5%); domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 487,000 tons, up 25,000 tons (5.41%). As of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 48,658 tons, down 6,017 tons (- 11.01%); LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 447,000 tons, up 14,050 tons (3.25%) [36]. - **Bauxite**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.4 million tons, up 580,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,200 tons, down 77.37% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.159 million tons, up 0.05% month - on - month and 1.75% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.207 million tons, up 0.01% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year; the operating rate was 97.68%, up 0.03% from last month and down 1.12% from the same period last year [55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import of aluminum products was 300,000 tons, up 24.1% year - on - year; the export was 490,000 tons, down 19.8% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1.98 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 2.92 million tons, down 8% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 618,900 tons, up 0.48 month - on - month and 5.49% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, down 0.87% month - on - month and up 19.22% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 9.097 million tons. In June 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, down 12.26% year - on - year; the export was 25,800 tons, up 23.79% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 542,200 tons, down 11.53% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 120,300 tons, up 3.06% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment was up 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482 units, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105 units, up 11.43% year - on - year [71]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight oscillating decline of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

一、事件：2025中国电解铝大会 据中冶有色官网显示，"2025中国电解铝大会"将于2025年8月21-23日在云南省昆明市召开。 据悉，本次会议主题内容包括"电解铝产品碳足迹核算与探讨"、"电解铝烟气CO?捕集技术路径"、"电解铝智能工厂关键技术体系与核心架构 （工业互联网、5G、AI等）"等。 供需趋紧，或成真正红利资产 天风证券表示，我国电解铝行业产能的天花板被划定为 4400-4500 万吨，截至 25 年 5 月底，国内电解铝建成产能及运行产能分别为 4550/4413 万吨，建成产能达4500 万吨天花板，同时产能利用率已达到 97%，为历史相对高点。 传统领域中，地产对铝需求形成一定拖累，但电力、家电等需求韧性较强。新能源领域，电解铝需求主要由光伏及新能源车拉动。光伏装机的 稳定增长叠加新能源车产销的高景气度为铝需求提供较多增量。供需趋紧格局下，预计铝价中枢有望稳步抬升，电解铝行业高利润有望延续。 另外东方证券指出，随着电解铝行业内部资本开支的持续下降，上市公司稳定的盈利有望带来资产负债表的持续改善，最终或体现为分红回购 的持续增长。根据当前电解铝及氧化铝价格测算，主要上市公司股息率有望接近6% ...