房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Group 1 - The current credit bond market is transitioning from a phase of continuous recovery to a phase of oscillation and convergence, with marginal momentum weakening [7][8] - The overall yield of credit bonds is stabilizing, supported by configuration demand, and the credit spread is expected to return to a narrow oscillation range [8] - The investment strategy should focus on coupon income, particularly targeting 2-3 year maturity bonds while maintaining controllable credit quality to seek excess returns [8] Group 2 - In the primary market, net financing for credit bonds remained stable, with a total issuance of 2,945 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,497.8 billion yuan, which is similar to the previous week [11] - In the secondary market, trading volume decreased to 8,813.3 billion yuan, down by 498.47 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating a contraction in trading activity [14] - The yield on 3-year AAA medium-term notes decreased by 0.05 basis points to 1.85%, while AA+ and AA medium-term notes saw declines of 2.05 and 4.05 basis points, respectively [14][15] Group 3 - The credit rating adjustments included seven issuers with upgrades, indicating a positive trend in credit quality among certain entities [11] - The market is witnessing a notable increase in trading activity for mid-to-high grade real estate bonds following the approval of Vanke's domestic bond extension plan [8][11] - The valuation recovery opportunities for central state-owned and local state-owned enterprise bonds within a two-year maturity are worth monitoring due to previous sentiment impacts [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Core Insights - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [3] - The equity sales for the same group reached 132.14 billion yuan [3] - The top ten companies by sales include Poly Development, China Overseas, China Resources, Greentown China, China Travel Investment, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, Jianfa Real Estate, Vanke, and Binjiang Group, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [3] Sales Performance - The average sales for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, also showing a decline [4] - The ranking of companies has shifted significantly compared to the previous year, with Vanke dropping from 5th to 9th place, while China Travel Investment emerged as a "dark horse" in 5th place [3][4] Market Trends - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active following the September 2024 policy changes [6] - The industry is undergoing an adjustment phase, with a decrease in the number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales, while those achieving over 5 billion yuan have increased, indicating a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition" [6] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 saw year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, with approximately 8.1 million square meters of new residential sales in 50 key cities, while the second-hand housing market saw a notable increase, with transaction volumes rising by 33% year-on-year [7][8] - The second-hand market's recovery is contributing to stabilizing market expectations, with some cities experiencing a reduction in listing volumes [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has been signaling a focus on stabilizing market expectations, with recent policy measures including interest rate cuts and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [9] - The upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, and the introduction of quality projects could maintain a certain level of market activity in core cities [9] - As of the end of 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have made progress in debt restructuring, but the challenge remains in converting financial relief into sustainable operational capacity [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the popular real estate advice of "buy three, not two, and keep the area under 110 square meters," analyzing its relevance and applicability to current homebuyers [1][3][11] Group 1: Buying Advice - The recommendation to buy a three-bedroom apartment stems from the need for flexibility in family living arrangements, as many families consist of three members [1][3] - A three-bedroom unit allows for future changes in family structure without the hassle of moving, which can incur significant costs [3][5] - The current market data indicates that three-bedroom apartments in the 90 to 110 square meter range are the most actively sold, reflecting buyer preferences [3][5] Group 2: Area Considerations - The choice of 110 square meters is seen as a balance between comfort and economic feasibility, providing adequate space without overwhelming costs [4][5] - Larger apartments increase ongoing costs such as utilities and maintenance, which can be burdensome for homeowners [4][5] - The actual usable area may be significantly less due to shared space considerations, making it crucial for buyers to inquire about the net area [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The real estate market in 2026 shows a divergence in price trends, with first-tier cities stabilizing while lower-tier cities face challenges due to population outflow [8][9] - Properties that are well-designed, appropriately sized, and located in prime areas tend to retain value and marketability, even during downturns [9][11] - The advice of "buy three, not two, and keep the area under 110" is particularly relevant for first-time buyers with limited budgets who still seek quality living conditions [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in January shows a total sales amount of 190.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year decline, consistent with the overall decline observed in the previous year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In January, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land, each exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales [1] - The equity sales amount for the top 100 companies was 132.14 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 6.548 million square meters [1] - The average sales amount for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year; for companies ranked 11-30, the average was 2.6 billion yuan, down 25.6%; for 31-50, it was 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0%; and for 51-100, it was 490 million yuan, down 26.7% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales decreased by 2 compared to the previous year, while the number of companies achieving over 5 billion yuan increased by 2, indicating a shift towards healthier and more sustainable development in the industry [2] - The focus of competition is shifting from "scale racing" to "quality racing," which is expected to concentrate resources on outstanding companies, thereby reducing systemic risks and enhancing the industry's resilience [2] - Various cities have released "14th Five-Year" planning suggestions, emphasizing the need for a new development model in real estate, increasing the supply of affordable housing, and improving safety management systems for housing [2] Group 3: Policy Environment - The central government has repeatedly signaled the importance of "stabilizing expectations" for the real estate market, emphasizing the need for effective expectation management [2] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, while several provinces have reduced the down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% [2] - Local governments, such as Sichuan and Zhejiang, have issued approximately 10.5 billion yuan in special bonds to recover and acquire idle land [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - As the Spring Festival approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, and the core city real estate market is likely to maintain a certain level of activity due to the introduction of quality projects [3] - However, market expectations remain weak, necessitating coordinated policy efforts from both the demand and supply sides to effectively reverse market sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen is showing signs of recovery, with significant demand for both affordable housing and commercial properties, driven by favorable policies and economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Affordable Housing Market - The first affordable housing project of the year, Shen Tie Ming Zhu Fang, sold out on its opening day, indicating strong demand [1]. - The project had 181 units available, with 662 qualifying households, resulting in a subscription ratio of approximately 1:3.6, reflecting the high demand from first-time homebuyers for reasonably priced housing [2]. - The overall new and second-hand housing market in Shenzhen saw over 10,000 net signed transactions in January, with second-hand housing transactions increasing by 25% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month [1]. Group 2: Commercial Property Market - In January 2026, the transaction volume of new commercial properties accounted for 35.5% of total new housing transactions, while second-hand commercial properties made up 20.5% of total second-hand transactions, both showing increases compared to the 2022 peak [2]. - Small-sized apartments in prime locations are gaining popularity due to their low entry barriers and high rental yields, with some properties showing rental returns exceeding 4% [2]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - A series of policy incentives have been introduced in early 2026, including a reduction in the value-added tax rate on property transactions from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, and adjustments to commercial property loan requirements [3]. - Shenzhen's GDP grew by 5.5% in 2025, with strong industrial performance contributing to improved employment and income expectations, which is expected to boost real estate demand [3]. - The rental yield in Shenzhen has rebounded to approximately 1.8%, surpassing the annual interest rate of large bank deposits, indicating a favorable investment environment [3].

Core Insights - In January, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities across the country was approximately 17,100 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% [1] - Out of the 100 cities, 24 experienced a month-on-month price increase, while 72 saw a decrease, and 4 remained unchanged [1] - Year-on-year, the average price of new residential properties increased by 2.52% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same 100 cities was 12,900 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, although the decline was narrower by 0.12 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

北京商报讯（记者 李晗）北京市住建委官网数据显示，1月31日北京新房网签208套，网签面积15687.99平方米，其中住宅网签100套，网签面积13134.42平 方米；二手房网签453套，网签面积39708.88方米，其中住宅网签430套，网签面积38622.51平方米。 | 2025年12月存量房网上签约 | | | --- | --- | | 网上签约套数： | 19132 | | 网上签约面积(m²)： | 1659092.4000 | | 住宅签约套数: | 17200 | | 住宅签约面积(m²)： | 1549550.8000 | | 可售期房统计 | | 2025 年12月预售许可 | | 2026/1/31其 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可售房屋套数: | 92738 | 批准预售许可证: | 20 | 网上认购 | | 可售房屋面积(M²): 7756745.3300 | | 批准预售面积(M²): 542294.9600 | | 网上认购面积 | | 其中 住宅套数: | 39416 | 其中 住宅套数: | 1808 | 其中 住宅 | | ...

今天分享的是：2026年中国投资展望：过弯加油，马年牛腾；东升西不落——政策利好有望超预期 报告共计：132页 中银国际发布2026年中国投资展望报告，题为"过弯加油，马年牛腾；东升西不落——政策利好有望超预期"。报告认为，随着 地方政府权责重构进入收尾阶段，宏观政策具备从"防御"转向"进取"的制度基础，2026年有望迎来政策层面的超预期利好。在 经济层面，报告预计全年实际GDP增速约为4.7%，CPI有望回升至0.5%左右，内需对增长的贡献将进一步上升。财政与货币政策 预计保持适度宽松，以支持经济平稳过渡与结构升级。 报告指出，2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，经济发展将更注重内需拉动与结构优化。新旧动能转换持续深化，以AI、半导 体、生物医药为代表的战略新兴产业，将成为推动经济高质量发展的核心引擎。与此同时，传统产业如房地产仍处于调整阶 段，但对整体经济的影响边际减弱。在外部环境方面，中美经贸关系预计呈现阶段性缓和，为出口与科技合作提供相对稳定的 窗口期。 在产业展望部分，报告强调科技制造、生物医药、绿色能源以及品牌文娱等领域具备较高的成长潜力。其中，AI技术不仅是提 升生产效率的关键工具，也是推动产 ...