9月15日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师付凌晖在会上介绍了8月国 民经济运行情况。 工业生产较快增长、市场销售平稳增长、就业形势总体稳定……"8月宏观政策协同发力，国民经济运行 总体平稳，转型升级稳步推进，高质量发展取得新成效。"付凌晖说。 稳在内需稳步扩大。 稳：经济运行总体平稳 8月国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，经济增长"稳"没有改变。 稳在生产平稳增长。 农业方面，早稻小幅增产，秋粮播种面积稳中略增，长势总体正常，畜牧业生产保持稳定。 工业方面，8月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.37%，继续保持较快增长。其中，制造 业发展态势较好，8月制造业增加值增长5.7%，快于规模以上工业增速。 服务业方面，8月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，增势好于工业。在暑期出行增多带动下，住宿餐饮业 生产指数增速比上月加快。 消费领域，1至8月社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%，服务零售额同比增长5.1%；投资领域，1至8月 固定资产投资同比增长0.5%，扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资增长4.2%，制造业投资增长 5.1%。 稳在外贸增长。 在世界经济增长乏力、国际贸易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national economy of China is maintaining overall stability and progress, with steady growth in production, expanding domestic demand, and increasing foreign trade despite global economic uncertainties [1][2][5]. Economic Performance - Production is showing stable growth, with industrial value-added in August increasing by 5.2% year-on-year, and manufacturing value-added growing by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth [1][2]. - The service sector is also performing well, with a production index growth of 5.6% in August, driven by increased travel and dining activities during the summer [1][2]. Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption is expanding, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in August, and service consumption, particularly in tourism and entertainment, showing strong growth [2]. - Fixed asset investment has grown by 0.5% in the first eight months, with manufacturing investment rising by 5.1%, indicating robust support for manufacturing upgrades [2]. Foreign Trade and Reserves - China's foreign trade remains resilient, with total goods trade increasing by 3.5% year-on-year in August, and exports of electromechanical products growing by 9.2% in the first eight months [2]. - Foreign exchange reserves increased by $29.9 billion at the end of August, reflecting a stable upward trend [2]. Stability Indicators - Key economic indicators have shown stable growth from January to August, with the urban unemployment rate at 5.3%, remaining consistent with the previous year [3]. - Consumer prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, primarily due to falling food prices, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.9% [3]. Transformation and Innovation - The rise of artificial intelligence and digitalization is driving growth in related industries, with significant increases in the manufacturing of smart vehicle equipment (17.7%) and integrated circuits (23.5%) in August [4]. - The modern service sector is also thriving, with information technology services growing by 12.1% [4]. Future Outlook - The long-term supportive conditions for China's economy remain unchanged, with macroeconomic policies expected to continue fostering stable growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation of China remains stable with signs of progress, supported by various policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [2][4][8] Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a continuous expansion of domestic demand [2] - Fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1% [2] Trade and Foreign Exchange - In August, the total import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving growth for three consecutive months [2] - The export of electromechanical products rose by 9.2% year-on-year in the first eight months [2] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking an increase for four consecutive months [3] Policy Impact - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand have shown positive effects, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and furniture [4] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing to fixed asset investment growth [4] Innovation and New Industries - The manufacturing value added in the integrated circuit and electronic materials sectors exceeded 20% growth in August, indicating a strengthening of new economic drivers [5] Market Activity - The stock market in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw increased activity in August, contributing to improved market expectations and vitality [6] Future Outlook - The economic operation in the third quarter is expected to maintain a stable and progressive trend, supported by ongoing macro policies [7] - Upcoming consumer policies and holiday seasons are anticipated to further enhance consumer capacity and willingness [7] - Despite a 2.3% year-on-year decline in private fixed asset investment in the first eight months, the future growth potential remains optimistic [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in China remains stable with signs of progress, as indicated by key economic indicators for August and the first eight months of the year [2][3][6]. Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth rate [2]. - The service sector's production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year, driven by increased travel during the summer [2]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting the release of service consumption potential [2]. Trade and Employment - In August, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving growth for three consecutive months [3]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.3%, slightly up from the previous month but unchanged from the same period last year [3]. Policy Impact - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment are showing positive effects, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and furniture [4]. - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing to a 2.1 percentage point increase in fixed asset investment [4]. Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The manufacturing sectors for integrated circuits and electronic materials saw an increase in added value exceeding 20% in August, indicating a strengthening of new growth drivers [5]. - The stock market showed increased activity in August, which is beneficial for market expectations and development vitality [5]. Future Outlook - The economic operation is expected to maintain a stable and progressive trend in the third quarter, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [6]. - Upcoming consumer policies and holiday seasons are anticipated to further enhance consumer capacity and willingness [6]. Private Investment - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, but future growth is expected due to supportive measures for private enterprises [7]. - The government is working to improve the investment environment for private sectors, which is likely to stimulate private investment stability [7].

Group 1 - Private investment growth has faced pressure, with a continuous decline for three months and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% from January to August [1][3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating a broader economic context [1][3] - The decline in private investment is significantly influenced by the real estate sector, which saw a 16.7% drop in private investment, pulling down overall private investment growth by 4.5 percentage points [3] Group 2 - Excluding real estate development, private project investment showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, outpacing overall investment growth [3] - Manufacturing sector private investment grew by 4.2%, accounting for 40.6% of total private investment, with 16 out of 31 manufacturing industries experiencing double-digit growth [3][4] - Notable growth in private investment was observed in the automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment sectors, with increases of 22.6% and 16.2% respectively [3] Group 3 - Private enterprises are key players in innovation and have increased investment in emerging industries, contributing to a positive shift in the industry [4] - High-tech industries, particularly information services and professional technical services, saw private investment growth of 26.7% and 17.6% respectively from January to August [4] - Infrastructure private investment rose by 7.5%, surpassing the overall infrastructure investment growth rate by 5.5 percentage points, with significant contributions from the electricity, gas, and water supply sectors [4] Group 4 - The ongoing high-quality development in China is expected to create more space for private investment, particularly in green industries like new energy vehicles and solar power [5] - Private enterprises demonstrate resilience and adaptability, responding effectively to market demands and external challenges [5] - Strong policy support, including the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, is enhancing the environment for private investment and encouraging stable growth [5]

Economic Overview - The national economy is operating smoothly with a solid push towards high-quality development, supported by proactive macro policies and the construction of a unified national market [2][5] - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing sector growth at 5.7%, indicating a favorable development trend [2][4] Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in the retail of products related to trade-in programs [3] - Fixed asset investment rose by 0.5% from January to August, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1%, providing strong support for the upgrade and development of the manufacturing sector [3] Foreign Trade and Reserves - In August, the total import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving growth for three consecutive months [3][4] - By the end of August, foreign exchange reserves increased by $29.9 billion, reflecting a stable upward trend [3] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, slightly up from the previous month but consistent with the same period last year, indicating stable employment conditions [4] - Consumer prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, primarily due to a decline in food prices, while core CPI rose by 0.9%, marking an expansion in the inflation rate for four consecutive months [4] Industry Transformation and Innovation - The rise of artificial intelligence and accelerated digitalization are driving rapid growth in related industries, with significant increases in the manufacturing of smart vehicle equipment (17.7%), electronic components (13.1%), and integrated circuits (23.5%) [5] - The high-tech manufacturing sector saw an increase of 9.3% in added value, outpacing overall industrial growth, while modern service industries also performed well, with information technology services growing by 12.1% [5] - The production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles surged by 22.7% and 44.2%, respectively, indicating a robust green transition [5]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's economic indicators showed a slight recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.3%, and composite PMI output index at 50.5%, indicating overall economic expansion despite ongoing pressures [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.4%, reflecting improved economic conditions, with production and demand indices rising, and price indices continuing to increase [2]. - Among 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and others showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.8 percentage points, while finished goods inventory and employment indices declined by 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [2]. - Analysts suggest that the slight recovery in manufacturing PMI indicates the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, although the index remains below the threshold for five consecutive months, highlighting persistent economic downward pressure [2][3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, with significant recovery in the service sector, although the construction sector saw a decline [5]. - Key indices such as new orders, backlogs, and sales prices showed increases between 0.1 and 1.1 percentage points, while new export orders and input prices remained stable [5][6]. - The banking sector and capital market services are maintaining expansion, with strong financial support for the real economy, and summer consumption positively impacting transportation and entertainment sectors [6]. Economic Outlook - Forecasts suggest that in September and the fourth quarter, China's macroeconomic environment will continue to stabilize and improve, with manufacturing market demand expected to recover and production activities expanding [4][8]. - The overall growth momentum in the non-manufacturing sector remains stable, driven by policy support and market self-repair, with a focus on cultivating effective demand increments [7][8].

Economic Indicators - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, and the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [1][2] - The Manufacturing PMI has been below the critical line for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic downward pressure [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, while the new orders index increased to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points [2] - The recovery in manufacturing is attributed to the easing of adverse weather conditions and the resumption of the third batch of "national subsidies" for durable consumer goods [2][3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating a continuous improvement in manufacturing market prices [2][3] Service Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 50.3%, with the service sector index reaching 50.5%, marking a significant recovery [4] - The summer consumption effect has positively impacted sectors such as transportation and hospitality, with related indices remaining above 60.0% [4][5] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 57.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding market prospects [5] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index declined due to ongoing rainy weather, although it remains above 53%, indicating sustained growth in infrastructure-related activities [5] - The construction PMI is expected to rise into the expansion zone as weather conditions improve and growth stabilization policies take effect [5]

Group 1 - The overall business activity index for China's non-manufacturing sector in August is 50.3%, indicating a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting stable growth momentum [1] - Various sub-indices such as new orders, backlog orders, inventory, sales prices, supplier delivery times, and business activity expectations have shown increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The banking sector's supply and demand remain in the expansion zone, and the capital market service sector remains active, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the non-manufacturing sector's operational activities continue to expand, with a narrowing decline in demand and relatively stable price trends in the upstream and downstream markets [2] - There is an optimistic outlook among enterprises regarding future market conditions, with expectations for continued release of domestic demand potential in September and the fourth quarter due to policy drivers and market self-repair effects [2] - The performance of resident consumption and new momentum-related industries is reported to be good, with strong development trends in information services, particularly with the advancement of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives [1][2]

Core Insights - The Colombian accommodation and food service industry experienced a GDP growth of 0.7% in the first half of 2025, marking the first positive growth after eight consecutive quarters of decline [1] - Despite the growth, the overall performance remains below the peaks observed in 2022 and 2023 [1] - The Colombian Hotel and Tourism Association (Cotelco) plans to continue supporting the development of the tourism and food service sectors, with a focus on enhancing the promotion of tourist destinations [1]