如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 最近，不少芯片设计公司在晶圆厂那里吃到了"闭门羹"，不少晶圆厂反馈：部分成熟工艺的产能已 经开始不好投片。然而，这并非传统意义上"缺芯"的简单回归，而是 AI 溢出效应引发的一场深刻 连锁反应。 AI 不只抢走先进制程与先进封装的资源，也通过电源与功率链条把压力传导到成熟节点：数据中 心功耗暴涨，带动 PMIC、功率器件、驱动等需求持续抬升，而这类芯片往往依赖 8 英寸或成熟 制程产能；当供给侧又出现缩减时，成熟工艺自然更容易出现投片变难、利用率拉满、价格修复的 连锁反应。此外，AI催动的存储市场回暖，正通过 NOR Flash 等基础器件的涨价，进一步抬高 MCU 与各类模组的综合成本。 而近段时间，晶圆厂的一些动作也是暗流涌动。台积电、三星加速收缩 8 英寸旧产线，硅片厂扩 产12英寸，力积电卖掉最先进的12英寸新厂。。。一系列看似分散的事件，背后其实指向同一个 趋势——2026 年的半导体格局，早已不再是简单的周期波动，而是一场关乎生存的产能重构。 理解这场重构的第一把钥匙，就是从一个看似"过时"的主角开始：8 英寸。 8英寸，巨头退场，利弊如何？ 在 8 英寸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI is driving a potential price increase in global wafer foundries, affecting even non-mainstream 8-inch wafers [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - TSMC and Samsung are gradually reducing 8-inch wafer production, with TSMC aiming for partial plant shutdowns by 2027. This reduction is expected to lead to a 0.3% decline in global 8-inch wafer capacity in 2025, entering negative growth. In 2026, despite some Chinese manufacturers planning slight capacity expansions, the overall capacity is projected to decrease by 2.4% due to the larger reductions from TSMC and Samsung [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - The increase in power IC orders for AI servers and the trend of IC localization in China are boosting demand for local wafer foundries, leading to a significant rise in capacity utilization rates for some Chinese manufacturers starting mid-2025. This has prompted these manufacturers to initiate price increases for foundry services, effective in the second half of 2025. The overall average capacity utilization for global 8-inch wafers is expected to rise to 85-90% in 2026, up from 75-80% in 2025, with some foundries planning to raise prices by 5-20% across all customers and process platforms [2][3]. Price Increase Considerations - Despite the anticipated price increases, actual price hikes for 8-inch wafers may be moderated due to concerns in consumer electronics and rising costs from memory and advanced processes impacting surrounding IC costs [3].

最近，不少芯片设计公司在晶圆厂那里吃到了"闭门羹"，不少晶圆厂反馈：部分成熟工艺的产能已经开 始不好投片。然而，这并非传统意义上"缺芯"的简单回归，而是 AI 溢出效应引发的一场深刻连锁反 应。 8英寸，巨头退场，利弊如何？ 在 8 英寸晶圆的历史坐标上，2026 年注定是一个分水岭。台积电与三星这两家执掌全球制程牛耳的巨 头，正不约而同地选择关掉一些8英寸晶圆厂。 台积电在 2025 年 8 月对外表示，将在未来两年内逐步淘汰 6 英寸晶圆制造业务，并继续整合其 8 英寸 晶圆生产能力以提升效率。目前台积电在台湾仍拥有一座 6 英寸晶圆厂与四座 8 英寸晶圆厂用于成熟节 点芯片制造。TrendForce 援引台媒信息称，台积电 8 英寸 Fab 5 预计将在 2027 年底前后停止生产，同 时 6 英寸 Fab 2 也将在 2027 年停产。 三星方面也出现类似动作。据报道，三星计划关停韩国器兴（Giheung）的 8 英寸 S7 厂，时间窗口落在 2026 年下半年，对应产能减少约 5 万片/月。需要强调的是，这并非"三星全面退出 8 英寸"——器兴仍 有 S6、S8 等产线继续运转。但 The Elec ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a significant capacity restructuring driven by the AI boom, affecting both advanced and mature processes, particularly the 8-inch wafer production [1][14]. Group 1: 8-Inch Wafer Production - Many chip design companies are facing challenges in securing capacity at wafer fabs, particularly for mature processes, due to increased demand driven by AI applications [1]. - TSMC and Samsung are both planning to shut down some of their 8-inch wafer fabs, with TSMC expected to stop production at its 8-inch Fab 5 by the end of 2027 [2]. - Samsung's S7 plant will also be closed in the second half of 2026, reducing its monthly capacity by approximately 50,000 wafers [3]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - The economic viability of 8-inch production is declining as 12-inch wafers can produce more dies at lower costs, making 8-inch production less profitable [4]. - The migration of key products like CMOS image sensors and display drivers to 12-inch platforms is contributing to the reduced utilization of 8-inch fabs [4]. Group 3: AI Impact and Market Dynamics - The AI-driven demand for power management ICs (PMICs) and power devices is causing a structural increase in demand, which, combined with supply-side reductions, is leading to a supply-demand imbalance for 8-inch wafers [5]. - As TSMC and Samsung reduce their 8-inch production, global supply is expected to decrease by approximately 2.4% in 2026, with average utilization rates rising from 75-80% in 2025 to 85-90% [5]. Group 4: Transition to 12-Inch Production - The transition to 12-inch production is becoming irreversible, with TI's Sherman facility marking a significant milestone in this trend [6]. - GlobalWafers is also expanding its 12-inch wafer production, indicating strong customer demand and confidence in long-term growth [7]. Group 5: Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - The reduction of 8-inch capacity by major players opens a valuable window for Chinese wafer fabs to capture market share and improve their bargaining power [11]. - Chinese manufacturers like Huahong and SMIC are expected to benefit from the reallocation of 8-inch orders, as they maintain high utilization rates [11]. Group 6: Strategic Moves and Future Outlook - The sale of Powerchip's P5 factory to Micron illustrates a strategic shift among second-tier manufacturers to prioritize cash flow and reduce asset burdens [8]. - Micron's acquisition aims to secure supply chain positioning for future DRAM production, highlighting the competitive landscape's evolution [9][10]. - The restructuring presents both challenges and opportunities, with the need for Chinese manufacturers to transition effectively to 12-inch production to maintain competitiveness [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Huahong Semiconductor (01347), as a leading foundry in China, is expected to benefit directly from the demand recovery trend, with solid gross margin improvement and optimized capacity utilization indicating stronger earnings per share growth potential [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Huahong Semiconductor and raises the target price from HKD 117 to HKD 134 [1] - The company is anticipated to remain on an upward trend, supported by factors such as customer preference for local foundries and the increasing market share of fabless companies in the global supply chain [1] - The semiconductor industry's supply-demand relationship in China is improving, contributing to structural growth opportunities [1] Group 2: Capacity and Revenue Outlook - With the next factory advancing to the 28/22nm process node, capacity is expected to continue expanding, indicating a long-term upward trend in average selling prices [1] - Recent signs of price increase momentum have led Goldman Sachs to raise Huahong's earnings forecasts for 2027 to 2029 by 1%, based on a more optimistic revenue outlook [1] - Revenue growth is projected to be stronger due to the demand for specialized technology chips, such as power management ICs and image sensors, benefiting from the growth of AI servers and AI smart edge devices [1] - With sustained high capacity utilization, there is more room for Huahong to optimize its order structure, leading to stronger revenue and profit performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a report indicating that Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), as a leading foundry in China, is expected to benefit directly from the recovery in demand, with improved gross margins and optimized capacity utilization showing stronger potential for earnings per share growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Hua Hong Semiconductor and has raised the target price from HKD 117 to HKD 134 [1] - The company is anticipated to remain on an upward trend, supported by factors such as customer preference for domestic foundries and the increasing market share of fabless companies in the global supply chain [1] - The semiconductor industry's supply-demand dynamics in China are improving, and the expansion of capacity as the next factory moves towards the 28/22nm process node indicates a long-term upward trend in average selling prices [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Recent signs of price increase have led Goldman Sachs to adjust its earnings forecasts for Hua Hong from 2027 to 2029 upwards by 1%, based on a more optimistic revenue outlook [1] - Revenue projections for 2027 to 2029 have been revised up by 1% to 2%, with expectations of stronger growth driven by demand for specialized technology chips, such as power management ICs and image sensors, benefiting from the growth of AI servers and AI edge devices [1] - With sustained high capacity utilization, there is more room for Hua Hong to optimize its order structure, leading to stronger revenue and profit performance [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The bull market for gold is not over, with macro factors remaining optimistic and short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical events [3][11][13] - Key macro pricing factors for gold have not changed, indicating a sustained upward potential in the medium to long term [3][13] - Micro indicators show that while gold price deviations are high, the RSI is healthy, and ETF inflows continue to rise, suggesting no clear direction for gold prices [3][13] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 is projected to grow by 20.4% year-on-year, driven by high-margin advanced processes and strong demand from AI/HPC sectors [4][12] - The advanced process capacity is fully loaded, with HPC accounting for 55% of revenue and 3nm technology representing 28% of wafer revenue [4][12] - TSMC's guidance for Q1 2026 indicates revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65%, reflecting strong demand visibility in AI [4][14] Group 3: Beauty Industry Trends - The South Korean beauty market has undergone several growth and decline phases, with the current phase focusing on global market expansion and reducing reliance on China [18][20] - New brands like APR and Silicon2 are outperforming traditional giants, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [20] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in product formulation and packaging, with South Korean brands leading in areas like cushion packaging and functional skincare products [20]

国家医保局全面推进手术机器人等操作收费立项。精锋医疗-B(02675)涨8.5%；微创机器人（02252）涨 超12%。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.15%，跌38点，报26449点；恒生科技指数涨0.14%。港股早盘成 交1277亿港元。 优然牧业(09858)反弹逾9%，公司有望受益周期反转，机构指大股东定增彰显发展信心。 佳鑫国际资源(03858)再涨超4%，月内累涨逾八成，钨粉价格创下历史新高。 顺丰同城(09699)涨超15%，平台竞争利好第三方物流服务商。 TCL电子(01070)涨17%，TCL拟重组并购索尼彩电业务。 心玮医疗-B(06609)涨超9%，预计2025年除税前利润约8000万元，同比扭亏为盈。 泛远国际(02516)跌超13%，拟参与COPE Holding等股份收购交易，应对贸易关税政策变化。 8英寸晶圆代工集体涨价，涨幅最高或达20%。华虹半导体(01347)现涨超4%；中芯国际（00981）涨超 3%。 兆易创新(03986)涨超10%，AI驱动存储周期上行，存储龙头闪迪再创新高。 ASMPT(00522)涨超4%，目前就公司SMT解决方案分部启动策略方案评估。 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 在全球人工智能（AI）与高效能运算（HPC）需求呈现爆炸性成长的推动下，晶圆代工大厂联电正积 极执行成熟制程升级计画，正式卡位共同封装光学（Co-Packaged Optics，CPO）世代。根据经济日 报 引 用 供 应 链 最 新 消 息 指 出 ， 联 电 已 将 新 加 坡 Fab 12i P3 新 厂 确 立 为 承 载 硅 光 子 （ Silicon Photonics）与CPO 技术的核心基地，内部已进入实质技术导入与试产准备阶段，目标于2027年实现 量产。 报导表示，联电近年来致力于提升成熟制程的附加价值，将22/28奈米制程导向更具竞争力的特殊制 程应用。供应链透露，联电新加坡Fab 12i P3新厂在此战略中扮演关键角色。该厂不仅以22/28奈米 制程做为营运主轴，服务通讯、车用、物联网与AI等应用市场，更进一步强化在CPO应用的布局。 据了解，该厂的22奈米产线已具备衔接硅光子产品的成熟制程基础。针对外界关注的布局进度，联电 官方回应证实，在特殊制程的推进上，硅光子确实是公司积极投入的重点技术之一。供应链进一步指 出 ， 目 前 该 厂 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's stock price experienced significant fluctuations, ultimately reaching a new high of NT$1780, with a market capitalization exceeding NT$46 trillion, driven by strong demand in the AI market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC's first-quarter operational performance is expected to remain robust despite seasonal trends, with a projected 4% increase in USD revenue quarter-over-quarter [1] - The company anticipates nearly 30% growth in USD revenue by 2026, indicating strong long-term growth prospects [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Market Conditions - TSMC plans to continue aggressive investment in capacity expansion, with capital expenditures projected between USD 52 billion and USD 56 billion [1] - The ongoing shortage and price increases in memory and PCB sectors are expected to further benefit TSMC's market position [1] Group 3: Market Impact - The overall Taiwanese stock market rose by 230.59 points, closing at a historical high of 31639.29 points, with a trading value of NT$799.3 billion, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1]