Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market continues to be in an adjustment state. The prices of cotton futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, and the trading atmosphere in the market is relatively weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,675 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.91%, and its night - session closed at 14,720 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.31%. CY2603 closed at 20,665 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.82%, and its night - session closed at 20,695 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.15%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.62 cents/pound yesterday with a decline of 0.52% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2605 was 437,374 lots, a decrease of 19,780 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,212,127 lots, an increase of 435 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 6,755 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 15,580 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,329, an increase of 493, and the effective forecast was 1,209, a decrease of 403. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 7, an increase of 63 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.83%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan, a decline of 0.83%. The price in Shandong was 16,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price in Hebei was 15,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan, a decline of 0.08%. The 3128B index was 15,972 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, an increase of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.04 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF3 - 5 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the basis of spot sales remained stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was mostly at CF05 + 850 or above. The price of slightly contaminated cotton was lower, and it was picked up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was around CF05 + 1000, and there was no slightly contaminated cotton, also picked up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline, and the trading atmosphere continued to be weak. The sales of pure cotton yarn categories were significantly differentiated. The sales pressure of low - count and conventional categories was prominent. Some manufacturers had an implicit decline or discount of 100 - 200 yuan/ton in actual transaction prices. The orders of combed high - count yarn continued to be good, the price was firm, and the order scheduling was relatively good [2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly. Although the weekly export data of US cotton was good, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, ICE cotton futures failed to exceed the highs of the previous two days and then declined [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral state [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton price in China is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, showing a trend of "stability followed by decline, then recovery" due to various factors including U.S. tariffs and domestic consumption policies [1] Group 1: Domestic Cotton Price Trends - In 2025, the overall domestic cotton price index is projected to fluctuate, with a minimum drop to 14,100 CNY/ton and a maximum rise to 15,609 CNY/ton during the year [1] - The average annual price for the cotton price index is expected to be 14,903 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - By December, domestic cotton prices continued to rise, supported by favorable macro policies and a strong textile market, reaching a peak of 15,556 CNY/ton [2] Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The futures market showed a bullish trend with increased participation, as the main contract CF2605 rose from 13,760 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 14,550 CNY/ton by the end [4][5] - The average settlement price for the main Zheng cotton contract was 14,009 CNY/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 467 CNY [5] Group 3: Long Staple Cotton Demand and Pricing - Demand for long staple cotton was weak, leading to a slight price decline, with the price for 137-grade long staple cotton at 24,960 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY from the previous month [7] - The average transaction price for 137-grade long staple cotton was 24,896 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 104 CNY [7] Group 4: International Market Conditions - The international cotton market faced challenges, with prices initially declining before a slight rebound, resulting in a widening price gap between domestic and international markets [7] - The average price for imported cotton was 73.62 cents/pound, down 0.7% month-on-month, with a significant price gap of 673 CNY compared to the domestic cotton price index [7][10] Group 5: Cotton Yarn Pricing and Inventory Management - Cotton yarn prices increased in line with rising cotton prices, with the average price for 32-count pure cotton yarn at 20,901 CNY/ton, up 337 CNY month-on-month [10] - Due to limited new orders and year-end cash flow pressures, some spinning mills increased their inventory management efforts [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is continuing its adjustment trend. The domestic cotton spot trading has weakened, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable but with a slight downward shift in the actual transaction focus. The开机率 of inland spinning enterprises has declined slightly, and downstream weaving mills have limited new orders and high inventory of grey cloth, with low acceptance of high - priced yarns. The upward momentum of ICE cotton futures has weakened due to the strengthening of the US dollar. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 14,760 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.92%, and its overnight price was 14745 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%. The trading volume was 710,353 lots, a decrease of 84,008 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 1,201,677 lots, an increase of 25,192 lots. - CY2603 closed at 20,765 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and its overnight price was 20820 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 10,121 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 16,032 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. - ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.93 cents/pound with a decline of 0.02%. [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,707, a decrease of 487. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, an increase of 10 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 43. [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price in Shandong was 15,891 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.27%. - The price in Hebei was 15,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.30%. - The 3128B index was 15,783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.47%. - The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.94 cents/pound, an increase of 0.66% compared to the previous day. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.02%. [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF3 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot has weakened. The low - basis - difference spot has decreased, and some cotton merchants have slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with the overall basis center showing an upward trend. [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable, but the actual transaction center has shifted slightly downward, and the overall market trading atmosphere is still weak. Recently, inland spinning enterprises have continuously reduced their operating rates slightly to avoid inventory accumulation risks, while spinning enterprises in Xinjiang still maintain a relatively high operating rate. Downstream weaving mills have limited new orders, high inventory of grey cloth, and low acceptance of high - priced yarns, mainly purchasing small orders based on rigid demand. [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day yesterday, and the strengthening of the US dollar has weakened the upward momentum of ICE cotton futures. [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [4][5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market has limited driving forces. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in January. The global cotton supply - demand gap is small, and the US cotton market is expected to fluctuate. [10] - The domestic cotton market has strong expectations. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is certain, leading to a strong expectation of lower production. The demand side is resilient, and there is positive sentiment at the macro - level. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has strong support below, and there may be an upward space in the medium - to - long - term. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - New - year cotton planting area is expected to decline, with strong sentiment. In Xinjiang, measures to reduce cotton planting area are being implemented. [6] - Pima cotton processing volume increased by about 1.1 million tons year - on - year. As of December 25, 2025, the processing volume was 6.697 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.211 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. [39][41] - National cotton inspection volume increased. As of December 30, 2025, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1358 million tons, and the national volume was 6.3243 million tons. [43] - Pima cotton sales rate and sales volume are much higher than the same period last year. As of December 25, 2025, the sales volume was 3.731 million tons, and the sales rate was 50.7%. [46][47] 3.2 Demand - US clothing retail remains strong. In October, the monthly retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were 27.128 billion US dollars, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. [50][52] - The operating rates of textile enterprises in Vietnam, India, and Pakistan decreased or remained flat. As of December 26, Vietnam's operating rate was 61.9%, India's was 66.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5%. [54] - In November in China, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The cumulative retail sales from January to November were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. [7][57] - The comprehensive yarn load decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 26, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.1%, and the pure - cotton yarn mill load was 46.86%. [7][58] - The opening load of the grey fabric end decreased slightly, with a smaller decline than the yarn end. As of the week of December 26, the comprehensive short - fiber fabric load was 51.26%, and the pure - cotton grey fabric load was 48.66%. [7][59] 3.3 Import and Export - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton export contract volume is still low year - on - year. As of December 11, 2025, the total US cotton export contract volume was 1.445 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.243 million tons. [8][60] - In November, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.276 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. The cumulative export from January to November was 130.01 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. [8][64] - In November, the export value of China's clothing and clothing accessories was 11.594 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.93%. The cumulative export from January to November was 137.79 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. [8][66] - In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. [8][70] - In November, China imported 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a slight month - on - month increase. [75] - The import cotton price index strengthened month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the price index of medium - grade imported cotton with a 1% quota was 12,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan. [79][81] 3.4 Inventory - US clothing retail inventory increased month - on - month, while wholesaler inventory decreased month - on - month. In September 2025, the retail inventory was 58.488 billion US dollars, and the wholesaler inventory was 28.229 billion US dollars. [82][84] - Yarn comprehensive inventory decreased, and grey fabric inventory accumulated. As of the week of December 26, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.66 days, and the short - fiber fabric comprehensive inventory was 31.92 days. [85][86] - Spinning enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly, and finished - product inventory decreased significantly. As of the week of December 26, the spinning enterprises' cotton inventory was 31.94 days, and the cotton yarn inventory was 27.66 days. [88] - Weaving factories' raw material and finished - product inventory increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 26, the weaving factories' cotton yarn inventory was 6.92 days, and the pure - cotton grey fabric inventory was 35.06 days. [89] - China's domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 0.66 million tons month - on - month, basically the same year - on - year. As of December 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 5.349 million tons. [90][92] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is higher than the same period last year. As of December 30, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 9,185. [97][99] 3.5 Price - The spot price of cotton moved up. As of December 30, 2025, the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.34%. [18][22] - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton strengthened. As of December 31, 2025, the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan. [27][29] - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under a 1% tariff fluctuated and strengthened. As of December 30, 2025, the price difference was 2,621 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 605 yuan. [30][31] - The increase in the cotton yarn futures price was lower than that of the cotton futures price. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.69%. [33][34] - The cotton yarn basis gradually converged. As of December 31, 2025, the basis was 555 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan. [35][36] 3.6 Option - The historical volatility of cotton options increased significantly. [100]

Report Title - "No obvious negative factors, short - term high - level shock - Cotton Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report believes that the cotton market is expected to be volatile and bullish. International cotton prices briefly pulled back due to limited improvement in export data at the beginning of the week but then rebounded driven by improved US cotton contracts and shipment data, as well as the strength of the peripheral financial and grain markets. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton continued its strong upward trend, mainly driven by policy expectations. The market rumor of a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year and the approaching evaluation window of the target price subsidy policy have led to strong expectations of future supply contraction. Meanwhile, the overall production and sales in the textile downstream are fair, and the slight increase in cotton yarn prices has provided some support to the market. Key attention should be paid to policies and demand - side new market information [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - ICE cotton was reported at 63.36 - 64.81 cents per pound, with the Friday closing price at 64.49, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of December 12, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1039 to 21369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 1343 to 38677, equivalent to 880,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers decreased to 48505, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 1188 compared to the previous week, or 30,000 tons [9] Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - It was reported at 14040 - 14700 yuan per ton, with the Friday closing price at 14535 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan. As of December 19, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3852, totaling 7722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [10] Domestic Cotton Spot Market - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly. The spot fixed - price transactions of cotton were active, mainly purchased by traders. The spot fixed - price of cotton gradually increased with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton and active trading. The basis of spot sales changed little, with local rigid - demand transactions, and many transactions were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes of machine - picked cotton of grades 31 - 41/double 29/impurity within 3 in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions in 2025/26 were mostly above 15400 - 15500 (on a legal weight basis). For the same quality, the low basis in the Kashgar area was CF05 + 800 - 900, and the basis quotes in the northern Xinjiang production area were mostly above 1000, with a small amount below 1000. The low basis of grade 41 was mainly 900 - 1000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [12][15] 2. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. Among them, the Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total output [18] Import - In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons (compared to 105,800 tons) and a month - on - month decrease of 5000 tons (compared to 95,000 tons). From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% or 1.595 million tons (compared to 2.3662 million tons). In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% or 38,000 tons (compared to 223,100 tons) [24] Demand - Demand performance is average but still shows resilience. The operating rate remains flat [27][33] Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning factories was 1013 - 1078 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1351.5 - - 507 yuan per ton [36] Inventory - As of the week of December 26, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.125 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons, 99,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of November, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 925,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,400 tons [42] 3. International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - In the report released by USDA on December 10, the US cotton output in the 2025/26 season was further increased by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons. The global cotton output was reduced by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared to November, and the global cotton consumption was reduced by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, with an overall limited impact [44]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information available on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The cotton futures price is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,140 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 308,398 lots, a decrease of 144,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,123,245 lots, an increase of 7,199 lots. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume was 8,895 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,262 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.02 cents/pound with an increase of 0.64% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 4,001, an increase of 170. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, an increase of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 9 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,985 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,246 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 0.00 cents/pound, a decrease of 72 cents or 100.00% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall transaction of domestic cotton spot was relatively active. The fixed - price trading continued to improve, while the point - price trading was relatively sluggish. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4130/30B with impurity within 3.5 were mostly above 15,000 yuan for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B with impurity within 3 were at 15,100 - 15,150 yuan (public standard) for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight increase, and the sales were differentiated. Driven by the continuous rise in the upstream cotton price, the overall quotation of cotton yarn was firm. High - count combed yarn was the main force for price increases and had good sales, while the price of low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) was stable due to inventory accumulation. The downstream weaving market was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with no obvious intention to replenish stocks. The weak demand dragged down the overall transaction. Although the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provided phased support for medium - and low - count yarns, it was difficult to change the overall off - season pattern [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, affected by the weakening of the US dollar [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish in the near term due to a balanced supply - demand pattern and potential changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy in the new year. The spot market for Xinjiang cotton is strong, and yarn - end procurement is proceeding as usual [6]. - The cotton yarn market is under pressure, with many inland textile enterprises facing cash - flow losses. The industry needs to continue monitoring the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. Section Summaries 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Futures and spot prices are oscillating upwards. The supply - demand pattern shows both supply and demand increasing, with no prominent contradictions. There are expectations of significant changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy, which may reduce output. The Xinjiang cotton spot market is strong, and yarn - end procurement is steady. Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish [6]. - Cotton Yarn: Many inland textile enterprises face cash - flow losses. Although Xinjiang's textile enterprises maintain high operating loads, the industry as a whole is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. 02. Market Review - Cotton: The domestic cotton market has limited changes. Supply pressure is not significant, and the demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises is resilient. The upper half of the week saw good procurement, which weakened in the lower half. Spot prices rose, and the basis of some high - basis contracts was adjusted downwards [9]. - Cotton Yarn: The overall trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, with few new orders. Prices are temporarily stable after the previous increase, but most downstream customers are reluctant to accept the price hikes. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintain high operating rates, while inland ones continue to decline [9]. 03. International Macroeconomics - The report presents a series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone, including manufacturing PMI, employment, GDP, CPI, and interest rates, which can impact the cotton market through currency exchange rates and global economic demand [11]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - Key domestic economic data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and fixed - asset investment are provided, which can influence the domestic cotton textile industry [13]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December report, the global cotton output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both adjusted downwards, while the ending inventory increases slightly due to an increase in the beginning inventory. The main adjustment is in the US, while other countries' production and consumption data remain relatively stable [16]. - In China, the total supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 1.504 million tons, mainly due to an increase in production. The total demand is expected to increase by 130,000 tons to 858,000 tons, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory by 130,000 tons to 646,000 tons [20]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of November 20, 2025, the US has cumulatively signed contracts to export 1.306 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 49.16% of the expected annual export volume, and has shipped 520,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 39.80%. China has signed contracts to import 39,000 tons, accounting for 2.98% of the signed volume, and has shipped 15,000 tons [23]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories Start to Increase - As of the end of November, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises increased steadily, reaching 939,600 tons. The commercial inventory of cotton in China reached 4.6836 million tons, a significant increase from the previous month and slightly higher than the same period last year [26]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increase - In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a 34.4% increase from the previous month and a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. Cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a 25% increase from the same period last year and a 7.14% increase from the previous month [29]. 10. November Cotton Yarn Production Increases Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month - In November, the sales of pure - cotton yarn were relatively good in the first half but weakened in the second half. The comprehensive operating rate of pure - cotton spinning enterprises was stable. The estimated output of pure - cotton yarn in November was 493,000 tons, a 12.9% increase from the same period last year and a 3.7% increase from the previous month [30]. 11. US Cotton Growth - As of September 28, the boll - opening rate of US cotton was 67%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 16%, the same as the five - year average but 3 percentage points slower than last year. The good - quality rate was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [36]. 12. US Cotton Weather - As of the week of November 15, 2025, the average temperature and precipitation in the US cotton - growing areas and Texas were significantly lower than the previous year. Since the harvest is in the middle - to - late stage, the dry weather has limited impact [40]. 13. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of December 18, 2025, 1,083 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 25,039,991 bales of cotton, weighing 5.6524 million tons [42]. 14. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 406.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 38 billion yuan. The inventory of textile products was 218 billion yuan, with corresponding increases of 6 billion and 16 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 15. Domestic Demand Remains Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year - on - year increase. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [50]. 16. External Demand Exports Weaken - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a 5.12% year - on - year decrease. Textile exports increased by 1.03% year - on - year, while clothing exports decreased by 10.86% year - on - year [53]. 17. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a 6.65% year - on - year increase but a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. Retailer inventories decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio also declined [58]. 18. US Textile and Apparel Imports in September 2025 - In September 2025, US textile and clothing imports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of volume, while the import amount decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Cotton product imports showed a slight decrease in volume year - on - year but an increase in amount month - on - month [62]. 19. Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decrease - As of December 18, the number of warehouse receipts was 3,619, with 3,924 valid forecasts, a total of 7,543, an increase of 612 from the previous week [64]. 20. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decrease - As of December 2, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market increased by 2,444, and the net long positions of non - commercial futures alone increased by 2,707. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 479 [68]. 21. Load Changes - As of December 19, the load index of pure - cotton spinning mills, human - made cotton yarn mills, and pure - polyester yarn mills all decreased, indicating a weakening trend in the yarn and fabric loads [71]. 22. Industrial Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased by 0.9 days compared to last week, cotton yarn inventory remained flat, and the inventory of pure - cotton grey fabric increased by 0.5 days. Inventory is starting to accumulate as the consumption season enters a slow period [74]. 23. Industrial Chain Profit - This week, the sales situation in Xinjiang and inland areas differed significantly. Xinjiang's spinning enterprises had better sales, while inland ones slowed down. The narrowing of the cotton - yarn price spread due to the increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures has put pressure on spinning enterprises, leading to a decrease in the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises [79].

Group 1 - The domestic cotton market experienced fluctuations in November, characterized by a decline followed by a rebound, with domestic prices showing strength while international prices remained weak [1][2] - The China Cotton Price Index decreased from 14,859 CNY/ton to a low of 14,779 CNY/ton in early November, before rebounding to a month-end high of 14,896 CNY/ton, resulting in a month average of 14,831 CNY/ton, which is an increase of 67 CNY compared to the previous month but a decrease of 497 CNY year-on-year [2] - The futures market showed greater volatility than the spot market, with the main contract for Zheng cotton dropping from 13,640 CNY/ton to 13,380 CNY/ton before recovering to 13,725 CNY/ton, resulting in a month average settlement price of 14,543 CNY/ton, which is an increase of 94 CNY month-on-month and 536 CNY year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The demand for long-staple cotton remained stable, with prices holding steady; the price for 137-grade long-staple cotton was 25,000 CNY/ton at the end of the month, unchanged from the previous month, while the month average transaction price increased by 1,800 CNY/ton year-on-year [6] - The international cotton price faced downward pressure due to concerns over economic slowdown and increased global production forecasts, with the average price of imported cotton at 74.11 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month [7] - Domestic cotton yarn prices slightly rebounded in November, with the average price for domestic 32-count cotton yarn at 20,564 CNY/ton, an increase of 95 CNY month-on-month, while polyester and viscose staple fibers continued to decline due to weak downstream demand [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has fully priced in the supply pressure of US cotton, and the downward adjustment of global cotton production is a slight positive factor [2] - The overall price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, with some prices slightly adjusted, and the overall atmosphere is not good [2] - The spot trading of cotton is average, with some low - basis differentials having relatively good transactions [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.07% daily increase and 13750 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase; CY2603 closed at 19,945 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.18% daily increase and 19960 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.08% increase; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.87 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 303,883 lots, a decrease of 1,706 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,050,394 lots, an increase of 6,283. The trading volume of CY2603 was 7,169 lots, a decrease of 1,999 from the previous day, and the open interest was 17,370 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,749, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 3,321, an increase of 317. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 12, a decrease of 1, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 13 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,059 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is average, with some low - basis differentials having relatively good transactions. There are still some basis differentials being adjusted downward, but the amplitude is not large. Under the background of low inventory pressure, high - basis differential goods lack the motivation for significant price cuts, and the fixed - price quotes are relatively stable [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, with some counts having slight price adjustments and the overall atmosphere being not good. A few large spinning enterprises reduce prices to clear inventory for rotor - spun yarn, with the price of OEC32S being reduced by 200. Some spinning enterprises have new orders for low - count yarn, and a few spinning enterprises increase the prices of hot - selling low - count yarn products. Recently, the operating rates of spinning enterprises in the inland and Xinjiang have slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and the prices of conventional yarn products continue to be sluggish [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday. Although the USDA raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season again, the market has fully priced in the supply pressure of US cotton, while the downward adjustment of global cotton production (a 400,000 - bale, nearly 10% decrease in the production of West African cotton - producing countries) is a slight positive factor [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The cotton market shows strong supply and demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,800 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and its night - session closing price was 13,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.58%. CY2601 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.20%, and its night - session closing price was 19,915 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.45%. ICE cotton 3 closed at 64.61 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 335,581 lots, a decrease of 27,273 lots from the previous day, and its position was 1,046,477 lots, an increase of 30,263 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 2,484 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and its position was 5,997 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,499, an increase of 96 from the previous day, with 2,147 valid forecasts (unchanged). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14 (unchanged), with 0 valid forecasts and an increase of 14 from the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,696 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.20%) from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,693 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.20%) from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton (0.19%) from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 14,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.64 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.10% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,770 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its arrival price was 20,984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading remained weak, with some hedging transactions. The mainstream basis of spot changed little, some high - basis goods were slightly reduced, and the fixed - price quotes were slightly increased. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was mostly at CF01 + 900 and above, and the number of 31 - grade products with the same quality and quote increased this week. For 2025/26 machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B in both north and south Xinjiang with impurities within 3, many quotes had a basis of CF01 + 1400 - 1600 for mainland self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was locally increased by 100 - 200, but the actual transactions had no obvious follow - up. To relieve the profit pressure, some large spinning enterprises raised the yarn price. Orders for high - count and combed yarns used for high - end fabrics were relatively stable, while the trading of other categories was weak [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly yesterday. Affected by the interest - rate cut expectation, the risk appetite of the overall financial market was good, and the bargain - hunting buying continued to support ICE cotton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]