证券研究报告·行业研究·机械设备 掘金中东：油服设备出海机遇推荐&强推杰瑞股份纽威股份 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025 年 6 月 11 日 核心观点 2 ◆ "一带一路"合作深化，中东油服市场空间广阔。中国对外主要投资&建设项目聚焦于在能源、交通基建、金 属等板块，集中于"一带一路"国家。 2020-2024年中国对外能源行业投资建设项目达1680亿美元，其中沙特阿 拉伯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、卡塔尔、安哥拉（非洲）6国能源行业投资&建设项目累计达502.8亿美元，其 中主要的油气项目为291.5亿美元，且呈逐年上升趋势。根据Techsci Research，中东油服市场规模为千亿美元级， 油服设备市场至少为百亿美元级。中国油服设备公司目前在中东尚处于起步阶段，市场份额占比较低，具备高 度成长性受行业β影响较小。 ◆ 杰瑞vs纽威不同点：产品模式&商业模式不同导致收入确认节奏&客户导入速度有所差异。（1）产品模式：杰 瑞股份的主要业务分为两类：①设备类：以成套高端装备为主，非标属性强， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a cumulative investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2] - The lithium battery equipment sector is benefiting from the release of impairment risks and accelerated production expansion, particularly with major players like CATL increasing their production capacity [3] - The humanoid robot sector is seeing advancements with the launch of second-generation electronic skin and accelerated mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot [4] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator machinery, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations [5] - The forklift industry is undergoing a transformation towards automation and intelligence, driven by AI advancements [6] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in the energy sector is projected to drive significant growth in oil service equipment exports, particularly to the Middle East, with leading companies like Jereh and Neway experiencing explosive order growth [2] Lithium Battery Equipment - The sector has accounted for a total impairment provision of 5.7 billion yuan, with major expansions planned by CATL, including a new factory in Hungary with a total capacity of 72GWh [3] - Solid-state battery technology is emerging as a key growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent expected to benefit significantly [3] Humanoid Robots - The introduction of advanced electronic skin technology enhances the capabilities of humanoid robots, while Tesla's Optimus robot is moving towards mass production [4] Engineering Machinery - Despite a decrease in excavator sales, there is a notable recovery in other machinery segments, with exports showing a 9% increase in the first four months of 2025 [5] Forklift Industry - The integration of AI in logistics is accelerating the shift towards automated and intelligent forklifts, with significant opportunities for leading companies in the sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company has over 20 years of experience in the oil and gas industry and has entered the supply chain of global oil service leaders, establishing itself as a high-tech enterprise specializing in the research, production, and sales of oil and gas drilling equipment components [2][15]. - The oil service industry is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure by oil and gas companies, particularly in deep-sea and unconventional oil and gas sectors, which are seen as long-term trends [3][50]. - The company currently has a low market share, indicating significant growth potential, especially as it aims to increase its market presence in deep-sea and fracturing equipment [4][67]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, has developed a range of specialized components for oil and gas production systems, blowout preventers, and unconventional oil and gas extraction [15][20]. - The company has faced revenue fluctuations, with a projected revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 40% year-on-year, primarily due to external factors affecting export orders [2][28]. Industry Outlook - The global deep-sea oil and gas equipment market is projected to grow from $18.4 billion in 2023 to $26.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.1% [4]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for deep-sea oil and gas extraction technologies, supported by government policies promoting deep-sea technology development [57][62]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 140 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 260 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 18, and 14 [10]. - The company's revenue is anticipated to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the release of scale effects and the ongoing domestic development of unconventional oil and gas [2][10]. Market Position - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with major global oil service companies, with its top five customers accounting for over 70% of annual sales [23][24]. - The company aims to increase its market share in deep-sea equipment to 3%, translating to potential revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, and in domestic fracturing equipment to 40%, corresponding to 680 million yuan in revenue [4][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the machinery sector [4] Core Insights - Major companies like Huawei and Tencent are actively collaborating with robotics manufacturers, leveraging their capabilities in application scenarios and AI infrastructure to enhance model training and R&D efficiency, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots [1][11][41] - The China Securities Index Company has launched the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robotics Index, which includes 34 companies, indicating a potential influx of capital into the robotics sector, supporting continued market momentum [1][11][41] - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for embodied intelligence, including both humanoid and non-humanoid robots, and encourages exploration of investment opportunities in "AI + Robotics" beyond just humanoid robots [1][11][41] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Major tech giants are enhancing robotics manufacturers' capabilities, which is expected to boost the commercialization of humanoid robots [2][11] - The newly launched robotics index includes companies such as Huichuan Technology, Hubei Zhongke, and others, with expectations for increased capital inflow into the sector [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on embodied intelligence and exploring various robotics applications, including exoskeletons and sensors, which do not necessarily depend on humanoid robot proliferation [2][11] Engineering Machinery - Recent rumors about poor domestic sales data for engineering machinery in early May have led to significant stock corrections among leading companies, but the report suggests that this data may not represent the entire month [12][21] - The report anticipates double-digit growth in domestic sales for the year, supported by a low base from the previous year [12][21] - The domestic market is expected to recover, driven by increased investment in infrastructure and construction projects [21][22] Semiconductor Equipment - The report highlights the increasing importance of domestic semiconductor equipment due to export restrictions from the U.S., which is expected to accelerate the domestic production rate [25][26] - The overall outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector remains positive, with anticipated growth in orders for 2025 [26] 3C Equipment - The report notes that domestic manufacturers are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing adjustments in Apple's production strategy, with expectations for strong demand in 2025 [27] Other Equipment Sectors - The report provides insights into various sectors, including oil service equipment, elevators, rail transit equipment, and mining machinery, with specific recommendations for companies within these sectors [30][31][32][33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company [7]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in oil and gas field equipment manufacturing and oilfield services, with a revenue CAGR of approximately 20.83% from 2010 to 2024 [1]. - The company is benefiting from the growing demand for unconventional oil and gas, with expected continuous revenue and profit growth due to equipment/service expansion and technological innovations [4]. - The international strategy is progressing smoothly, with significant breakthroughs in the Middle East and North America markets [3]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 133.55 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 4.01% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 7.03% to 26.27 billion yuan [1][25]. - The high-end equipment manufacturing segment accounted for 69% of total revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.71% [14][51]. Financial Analysis - The company has maintained a strong profitability profile, with a gross margin of 33.70% and a net margin of 20.11% in 2024, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [29][25]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow to 30.15 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 [4][55]. International Expansion - The company’s overseas revenue grew from 13.77 billion yuan in 2017 to 60.37 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 23.51% [3][42]. - Key contracts signed in 2024 include a 22 billion yuan project with Bahrain National Oil Company and a 6 billion USD investment in Iraq [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts that the company will benefit from trends such as increased equipment self-research, expansion of service categories, and technological advancements in electric and turbine fracturing equipment [4][51]. - The estimated reasonable valuation range for the company is between 38.22 and 47.04 yuan per share [4].