Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a phase of supply-demand structural adjustment in the industry by 2025, leading to downward pressure on product prices [1] Industry Summary - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a significant year-on-year contraction in demand, resulting in declining sales prices due to changes in the photovoltaic industry chain supply-demand relationship [1] - The organic silicon market is also under pressure, with product prices fluctuating at low levels for most of the year [1] - The photovoltaic business segment is seeing gradual recovery in the polysilicon market due to policy and market collaboration, but still faces short-term challenges such as insufficient demand and high inventory levels [1] Company Strategy - The company adheres to a core strategy of "focusing on the main business, strengthening fundamentals, and optimizing allocation" [1] - It aims to leverage full industry chain collaboration and refined management to continuously solidify cost advantages and operational efficiency in core businesses like industrial silicon and organic silicon [1] - The company is committed to optimizing the asset and business structure of the photovoltaic segment in response to policy guidance and market demand changes [1] Future Outlook - The company will actively respond to industry self-discipline initiatives to promote the industry’s transition from low-price disorderly competition to high-quality development [1] - It will closely monitor market changes, dynamically optimize production and operational arrangements, and continue to advance the research and industrialization of high value-added products [1] - The focus is on enhancing overall profitability and risk resistance, maintaining positive operating cash flow, and laying a solid foundation for the company's long-term healthy development [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 5th, industrial silicon showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 8605 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.77%. The open interest increased by 25,966 lots to 267,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,550 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.52%. The open interest decreased by 288 lots to 38,804 lots. The price of N-type re - fed silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 4050 yuan/ton [2]. - Silica enterprises have officially entered the winter maintenance period, and the overall supply of ore is shrinking. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have also entered a comprehensive maintenance period. Under the game of reduced supply and demand of industrial silicon, the price center is supported by costs, but whether there will be an upward driving force depends on whether large factories cut production more than expected [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting and mentioned anti - monopoly issues again. The signing of new orders by silicon wafer enterprises is basically at a standstill, the pessimistic expectation of the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still pressure for silicon material prices to decline. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8850 yuan/ton on February 4th to 8605 yuan/ton on February 5th, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 8785 yuan/ton to 8610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton [4]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained stable, with no price changes for most grades such as non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 silicon [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,195 yuan/ton on February 4th to 49,550 yuan/ton on February 5th, a decrease of 1645 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,060 yuan/ton to 49,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The price of N - type polysilicon re - fed material increased slightly from 53,500 yuan/ton to 53,600 yuan/ton, while the prices of other types of polysilicon remained stable [4]. - **Organic Silicon Spot Prices**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 14,500 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: Industrial silicon inventory increased. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased from 439,350 tons to 456,150 tons, an increase of 16,800 tons. Polysilicon inventory also increased. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased from 308,000 tons to 333,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the futures inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC [20][23]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy [25][27]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher in precious metals and the director of non - ferrous research; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week. The supply-side production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in demand. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,145 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 64.02%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost side: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,490 - 8,720 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for February is forecasted to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.75 GW, an 8.19% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for February is 45.31 GW, a 1.34% decrease from the previous month. In January, the battery cell production was 41.44 GW, an 11.37% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell export factories was 9.17 GW, a 2.80% increase. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for February is 36.7 GW, an 11.43% decrease. In January, the component production was 35.2 GW, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for February is 29.8 GW, a 15.34% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 34.2 GW, a 9.26% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost side: The average cost of polysilicon N-type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,250 - 50,850 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon** - Supply: Decreased, with a weekly supply of 82,000 tons and a 1.20% decrease [6]. - Demand: Increased, with a weekly demand of 75,000 tons and a 7.14% increase [6]. - Cost: Increased, with the cost support rising during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: Fluctuate in the range of 8,490 - 8,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Polysilicon** - Supply: Decreased, with a weekly production of 20,200 tons and a 1.46% decrease, and a forecasted February production of 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Mixed, with short - term silicon wafer production decreasing and medium - term recovery expected, battery cell production continuously decreasing, and component production continuously decreasing. Overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future [10]. - Cost: Increased, with cost support strengthening [10]. - Expectation: Fluctuate in the range of 48,250 - 50,850 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 554,000 tons, a 0.35% decrease; sample enterprise inventory is 206,600 tons, a 1.14% decrease; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 0.73% increase [8]. - **Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease, and the forecasted February production is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer production last week was 11.75 GW, an 8.19% increase, and the inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Battery cell production and component production are decreasing [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 341,000 tons, a 2.40% increase, at a neutral level [10]. - **Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market has seen a significant rebound from oversold conditions, while the pattern of weak supply and demand persists. The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, and the polysilicon price is also predicted to remain volatile [1][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,825 yuan/ton and closed at 8,815 yuan/ton, a change of -55 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 234,800 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 2, 2026, was 14,855 lots, a change of 912 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest China, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in the main regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: There are expectations of production cuts and shutdowns for industrial silicon in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off-season, the supply side shows a contraction trend [2] - Demand side: The demand side of industrial silicon is sluggish. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax has led to an expected short - term increase in polysilicon demand, but the demand - side transmission of industrial silicon is blocked due to inventory accumulation. In February, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the supply shrank. There are expectations of production cuts in the organic silicon sector, the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will be mainly stable with a weakening tendency [2] Strategy - In the short term, due to the interweaving of long and short factors, the price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. With the reduction of both supply and demand, combined with the price increase transmission effects of coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is obvious. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. The recommended strategy is short - term range - bound operation [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 47,200 yuan/ton and closed at 50,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 6.61% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,411 lots (40,278 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 18,297 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 2.20 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.00 yuan/kg). The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 33.30 tons, a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,200.00 tons, a month - on - month change of -1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75 GW, a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3] Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have clearly planned to stop production, and the supply shows a contraction trend. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support has failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating the clearance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the new quotes of silicon wafers and the "rush to export" situation brought about by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates; in the long term, attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side and the progress of inventory reduction. The recommended strategy is short - term range - bound operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [6] Product Prices - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers is 1.23 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers is 1.33 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells is 0.27 yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells is about 0.28 yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells is about 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells is 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells is 0.44 yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells is 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm is 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm is 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm is 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm is 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On February 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,815 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 0.62%, and the open interest decreased by 1,513 lots to 235,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from百川 was 9,628 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 35 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 50,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.61%, and the open interest decreased by 1,867 lots to 38,411 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from百川 dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the lowest deliverable silicon material price was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 3,500 yuan/ton [2]. - Silica enterprises have officially entered the winter maintenance period, and the overall supply of ore is shrinking. Downstream industries have also entered full - scale maintenance due to the Spring Festival holiday. In the game of reduced supply and demand of industrial silicon, the price has cost support, but whether there can be upward momentum depends on whether large manufacturers cut production more than expected [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting and mentioned anti - monopoly issues again. The signing of new orders by silicon wafer enterprises is basically at a standstill, the pessimistic expectation in the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still downward pressure on silicon material prices. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures settlement price of the main industrial silicon contract increased from 8,795 yuan/ton on February 2 to 8,815 yuan/ton on February 3, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and at different ports remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 5 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures settlement price of the main polysilicon contract increased from 47,050 yuan/ton on February 2 to 50,000 yuan/ton on February 3, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton. Some spot prices increased, and the current lowest deliverable price increased from 51,300 yuan/ton to 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 4,250 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon Spot Prices**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 852 tons to 15,707 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,560 tons to 69,715 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 16,800 tons to 456,150 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 40 tons to 8,510 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 132,000 tons to 252,600 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 25,000 tons to 333,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][12]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon and DMC [21][22][25]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloys [27][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the cost support rose during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8675 - 8915. The fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling continued to decrease, demand showed some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 45850 - 48250. The fundamentals are bullish [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow demand recovery after the holiday; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 554,000 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 209,000 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% week - on - week decrease. The predicted production scheduling for February was 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% week - on - week increase. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon was 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 11,850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the price of N - type dense material was 50,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 333,000 tons, a 0.90% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and short positions turned to long [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices showed different changes, such as the 01 contract price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventory, including social, sample enterprise, and port inventory, had different changes, with social inventory decreasing by 0.36% week - on - week [15]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% week - on - week, and the Xinjiang sample utilization rate decreased by 1.44% week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: Costs in different regions, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, showed different trends [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices of polysilicon products, such as N - type silicon wafers and dense materials, showed different changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.91% week - on - week [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the photovoltaic cell monthly production decreased by 11.38% month - on - month [17]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [17].

Report Title - "Silicon Strategy Monthly Report, February 2026" [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In February, silicon stone enterprises enter the winter maintenance period, industrial silicon production in the southwest stops completely, and large factories in Xinjiang will cut production by 50%. Downstream industries will also enter full - scale maintenance due to the Spring Festival holiday. Under the game of supply reduction, the price has cost support, but whether there is upward momentum depends on whether large factories have unexpected production cuts. In February, Huadian's centralized project will open bids. Although component manufacturers have significantly raised prices, there is pressure of high - price but low - demand due to the limitation of terminal IRR. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting mentioned the anti - monopoly issue again, and the signing of new silicon wafer orders has come to a halt. The pessimistic expectation in the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still pressure for silicon material prices to fall. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - In January, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 30th, the main contract closed at 8,850 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.11%. The polysilicon futures trended weakly, and the main contract closed at 47,140 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 18.6% [5]. 2. Spot Price - The spot prices remained stable across the board. The price of non - oxygenated 553 remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 at 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 at 9,900 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon decreased by 0.1 million yuan/ton to 48,000 yuan/ton, and N - type decreased by 0.45 million yuan/ton to 55,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Spread - In January, the spread between 553 remained stable, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, and the regional spreads of 553 and 421 remained stable. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to par, and the polysilicon spot changed from a discount of 4,920 yuan/ton to a premium of 4,160 yuan/ton [5][17]. 4. Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in January was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The number of monthly operating furnaces decreased by 33 to 210, and the operating rate decreased by 4.15 percentage points to 26.4% [4][5]. 5. Demand - In January, the polysilicon production decreased by 33,800 tons to 83,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%. The DMC production decreased by 22,100 tons to 183,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% [4][5]. 6. Inventory - On the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon increased by 18,600 tons to 69,700 tons in January, and the polysilicon inventory increased by 137,000 tons to 253,000 tons. In the social inventory, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 16,800 tons to 439,000 tons, among which the factory inventory decreased by 15,800 tons to 250,300 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 79,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 51,000 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 2.47 tons to 33.3 tons [4][5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比有所减少2.35%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为33万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 53200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为2145元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开 工率为64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为6.73万 吨，处于高位，进口利润为626元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为714.29元/ 吨，再生铝开工率为59.3%，环比增加2.24%,处于高位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 合盛硅业公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-33亿元到-28亿元，与上年同期相 比，将出现亏损。2025年，公司所处行业整体经历阶段性供需结构调整，产品价格面临下行压力。受光 伏产业链供需关系变化影响，工业硅市场需求同比显著收缩，销售价格随之下行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].