工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点评 12 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 9195 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.43%，持仓 减仓 8823 手至 26.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9692 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8950 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 245 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 53460 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.43%，持仓 增仓 2149 手至 14.1 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52000 元/吨，最低交 割品硅料价格在 52000 元/吨，现货升水收至 665 元/吨。西南硅厂规模减 产，因下游出现同步减产，未能实现去库节奏。盘面提前计价减产预期， 受晶硅拖累回调。11 月多晶硅料和下游硅片排产均有下滑，硅料计划减产 规模超过下游，但硅片配额强限下，减产节奏先于上游。随着多晶硅产能 平台消息影响淡化，短期弱现实引导盘面处于低位盘整阶段。行业会议召 开，日内市场传出产能平台推进问题，光伏协会负责人发话反内卷决心， 多晶硅盘面因多方消息主导，波动率持续提升，建议投资者谨慎为上。 请务 ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） 工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 11 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 9180 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.54%，持仓 减仓 10544 手至 27.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9692 元/吨，较上一交 易日上调 38 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现货贴水收 至 230 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 51930 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.5%，持仓增仓 12494 手至 13.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52000 元 /吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 52000 元/吨，现货升水扩至 1100 元/吨。西 南硅厂规模减产，因下游出现同步减产，未能实现去库节奏。硅厂提前挺 价持货，盘面提前计价减产预期，限制价格向上修复空间。11 月多晶硅料 和下游硅片排产均有下滑，硅料计划减产规模超过下游，但硅片配额强限 下，减产节奏先于上游。随着多晶硅产能平台消息影响淡化，短期弱现实 引导盘面处于低位盘整阶段。因行业会议再度召开，产能平台动态较多， 多晶硅存在消息端提振效应，不宜过分追空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免 ...

图为工业硅主产区开炉情况 企业备库以刚需为主 生产成本抬升 从工业硅成本构成来看，电力成本占比最大。根据各地区电力价格不同，电力成本在工业硅生产中占比40%~55%。当前西南产区逐渐步入枯水期，电价将 较丰水期提升0.15~0.25元／千瓦时，折工业硅成本约2000元／吨，西南产区硅企生产成本显著抬升。 除电力之外，硅煤、石油焦、硅用电极及硅石亦是主要生产成本，在前期"反内卷"带动下，硅煤价格稳步抬升。近期随着工业硅开炉率下滑，对硅煤需求有 所减弱，但供给端多数洗煤厂依旧维持以销定产模式，暂无库存压力，且硅煤自身成本端支撑较好，预计短期价格易涨难跌；石油焦市场交投较为活跃，呈 现供给收缩、需求较好的格局，主流炼厂石油焦价格持续推涨；硅用电极表现相对较弱，因需求弱势及库存压力，价格上行阻力较大。考虑部分厂家成本倒 挂，电极价格以持稳为主；硅石则随着西南产区开工率下移，需求转弱，价格呈下行趋势，但其本身自然属性较强，价格波动区间较窄，对工业硅成本影响 有限。此外，从中长期看，紧缺的高品质硅石资源将在一定程度上推涨工业硅成本。综合来看，工业硅成本上移较为明显，对硅价下方形成稳固的支撑。 西南产区开工率降至低位 供给 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: Expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation phase with no significant drivers currently. Supply - side pressure is likely to gradually ease, while demand from different sectors shows mixed trends. The "anti - involution" policy is a positive factor, but downstream industry integration or production cuts may weaken demand [4][5]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, followed by the expected game of "November centralized warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows "supply increase, demand stability" characteristics, and the overall risk is relatively high [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract was 9180 yuan/ton, down 1.18% daily and up 3.32% weekly. The trading volume was 326,774 lots, down 10.66% daily and 13.96% weekly. The open interest was 270,959 lots, down 3.75% daily and up 11.90% weekly [10]. - The industrial silicon weighted index contract closing price was 9168 yuan/ton, down 1.21% daily and up 3.19% weekly. The trading volume was 411,740 lots, down 10.30% daily and 15.12% weekly. The open interest was 426,734 lots, down 3.02% daily and up 3.71% weekly [10]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, up 0.16% daily and 0.20% weekly [10]. - **Spot Data** - In the industrial silicon sector, the prices of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang were 8850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The price in Tianjin was 9400 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%. The price in Yunnan was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly. The price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly [18]. - In the mid - stream, the price of 99 and 553 industrial silicon powder was 10,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.51%. The price of 421 was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly [18]. - In the downstream, the price of trichlorosilane was 3375 yuan/kg, unchanged weekly. The polysilicon N - type price index was 52 yuan/kg, down 0.02% weekly. The price of organic silicon DMC was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly. The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.47% weekly [18]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 46,079 lots, down 176 lots from the previous period. The inventory in various delivery warehouses showed little change [29]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract was 51,930 yuan/ton, down 3.33% daily and 3.32% weekly. The trading volume was 324,598 lots, up 48.36% daily and 18.32% weekly. The open interest was 138,468 lots, up 9.92% daily and 7.44% weekly [30]. - The polysilicon weighted index closing price was 51,997 yuan/ton, down 3.28% daily and 3.28% weekly. The trading volume was 268,888 lots, down 18.66% daily and 3.07% weekly. The open interest was 222,392 lots, down 2.09% daily and 13.83% weekly [30]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 9850 lots, up 2.71% weekly [30]. - **Spot Data** - In the polysilicon sector, the prices of N - type re -投料, N - type dense material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon were 52.2, 51, 50.5, and 50.5 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged weekly [45]. - For N - type silicon wafers, the silicon wafer price index was 1.29 yuan/piece, down 2.00% weekly. The prices of G10 - 182 (130um) and G12 - 210 (130um) were 1.28 and 1.63 yuan/piece respectively, down 4.48% and 3.55% weekly [46]. - For battery cells, the prices of different types showed various changes, with some remaining unchanged and some having slight decreases or increases [46]. - For components, the prices of different types also showed various changes, with some having slight increases [46]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract was 70 yuan/ton, up 1790 yuan from the previous day and 1775 yuan from the previous week [56]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9850 lots, unchanged [56].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点评 10 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9290 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.31%，持仓 增仓 13202 手至 28.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9692 元/吨，较上一交 易日上调 38 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现货贴水扩 至 355 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 53720 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.08%，持仓增仓 457 手至 12.6 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52000 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 52000 元/吨，现货升水扩至 1065 元/吨。西南 硅厂规模减产，因下游出现同步减产，未能实现去库节奏。硅厂提前挺价 持货，盘面提前计价减产预期，限制价格向上修复空间。11 月多晶硅料和 下游硅片排产均有下滑，硅料计划减产规模超过下游，但硅片配额强限 下，减产节奏先于上游。随着多晶硅产能平台消息影响淡化，短期弱现实 引导盘面处于低位盘整阶段。因行业会议再度召开，产能平台动态较多， 多晶硅存在消息端提振效应，不宜过分追空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hoshine Silicon Industry (603260.SH) announced that Fidelity Industrial plans to reduce its holdings by up to 27.0705 million shares, accounting for no more than 2.29% of the total shares, due to its own funding needs [1] Summary by Category - **Company Announcement** - Hoshine Silicon Industry disclosed that Fidelity Industrial will initiate a share reduction plan starting three trading days after the announcement [1] - The maximum number of shares to be reduced is 27.0705 million [1] - The reduction will not exceed 2.29% of the total shares outstanding [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huasheng Silicon Industry reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -321 million yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 122.1% [1] - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit of 76 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 84.12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 111.52% [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon - In Q3 2025, the industrial silicon market saw both volume and price increases, leading to a turnaround in quarterly profitability [1] - The photovoltaic industry is implementing "anti-involution" policies to address issues of low-price disorderly competition, prompting silicon material companies to raise product prices above cost levels [1] - Multi-crystalline silicon companies are collaborating to limit shipments, which, combined with a market sentiment of "buying on the rise, not on the fall," has increased downstream stockpiling demand, further driving up multi-crystalline silicon prices [1] Group 2: Metal Silicon Market - The improved market sentiment in the metal silicon market is attributed to the rebound in silicon prices, indicating a gradual improvement in supply and demand [1] Group 3: Organic Silicon - In Q3 2025, the organic silicon monomer market faced weak orders, resulting in continuous price declines and a decrease in industry operating rates [1] - With the arrival of the traditional peak season in Q4 and expected industry maintenance, prices are anticipated to undergo a phase of recovery [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the current market dynamics and anticipated recovery in prices [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 1万吨 ， . 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 环比有所减少9 74% . . | 00% 。 . 需求持续低迷 | . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 处于低位 ， | ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 | 组件盈利 ， | ； | ...

Report Title - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Weekly Report - Industrial Silicon with No Prominent Contradictions, Polysilicon Continuing the Game between Policy Expectations and Negative Feedback [1] Report Date - November 9, 2025 [1] Report Author - An Ran [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current trading logic is that although there is supply pressure, the expected slight inventory reduction due to the southwest's production cut in the dry season leads to a loose balance overall, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The valuation is relatively neutral to low, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the fourth quarter. The risk of breaking through the lower limit comes from the coal end. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [61]. - For polysilicon, there is still a large divergence between industry policy - oriented expectations and the weak reality from the bottom - up of components. In the fourth quarter, the market will continue to repeatedly game the progress of mergers and acquisitions of production capacity. It will operate in a range - bound manner, with the lower limit anchored to the downstream's willingness - to - hold price and the upper limit pressured by the weak reality. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, one can try to buy out - of - the - money call options [66]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Overview and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Overview (11.3 - 11.7)** - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of 553 remained unchanged week - on - week, the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan, and the price of 421 remained unchanged. The prices of some raw materials such as petroleum coke and charcoal increased. The production in the northwest was basically stable, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The total weekly production of industrial silicon decreased by 8504 tons, a decrease of 8.2% [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material decreased slightly, the weekly production decreased by 0.12 million tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The inventory of polysilicon factories decreased slightly. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly, and the production and inventory of silicon wafers also decreased [9]. - **Organic Silicon**: The data of DMC was not updated this week. New orders were weak, and the production of DMC was under pressure. The monomer factories were cautious in purchasing industrial silicon and tried to lower the price [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The silicon consumption increased by 7.4% month - on - month, maintaining the rigid demand rhythm [9]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased by 8.4% month - on - month. Although some overseas aluminum alloy factories had purchase orders, the transaction price was difficult to rise [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with a decrease of 0.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.29%. The social inventory decreased, while the factory inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Industrial Silicon**: For the month - spread between November and December contracts, it is recommended to wait and see when it is around 2000 - 2200. For the 06 contract, one can try to short lightly at 11700 - 11800. One can also consider selling out - of - the - money put options on dips [62][64]. - **Polysilicon**: When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, one can try to buy out - of - the - money call options [66]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit** - **Price**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon showed different trends, with the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang rising and others remaining stable [7]. - **Cost**: The costs of industrial silicon in different regions were different, and the costs in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Profit**: Most regions were in a loss state, and the profit situation in some regions improved slightly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply** - **Monthly Production**: The production in different regions showed different trends, with the production in Xinjiang stable and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing significantly [7]. - **Weekly Production**: The total weekly production of industrial silicon decreased, mainly due to the significant decrease in the production in Yunnan and Sichuan [7]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory/Supply - Demand Difference** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory increasing [9]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: The supply - demand situation showed a loose balance, with no prominent contradictions [61]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Supply Analysis** - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit**: The price of polysilicon decreased slightly, the cost was stable, and the profit decreased slightly [9]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and it was expected that the production in November would be less than 1.2 million tons [9]. - **Polysilicon Demand Analysis** - The demand for polysilicon was affected by the production cut of silicon wafers, and the consumption decreased [9]. - **Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Chain Inventory Analysis** - The inventory of polysilicon factories decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicon wafers also decreased [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: The futures contract has upward momentum due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Although the supply and demand are both weak, the continuous reduction of futures warehouse receipts provides support to the bottom of the market. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price drops. [5] - Polysilicon: The market has entered a policy vacuum period, and the futures contract is trading based on the weak supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will decline next week, and investors can short at high prices and take profit at low prices. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation this week, closing at 9,220 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price increased, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon quoted at 8,850 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,100 yuan/ton (unchanged). [1] - Polysilicon: The futures price center declined this week, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable. [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Southwest production decreased, and the cost during the dry season in the Southwest is expected to lead to further production cuts. Although Xinjiang factories are resuming production, the overall supply from November is expected to decline. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons. [2] - Demand: Downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. Polysilicon production will decline from November, organic silicon is gradually resuming production after maintenance, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline marginally. Aluminum alloy procurement maintains a rigid - demand rhythm, and the export volume in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than that in the third quarter. [3] Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production decreased. Southwest leading factories will cut production in November, and the planned output is expected to drop to 110,000 tons. The factory inventory remained unchanged this week, and the average full cost is 50,890 yuan/ton. [3] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule decreased week - on - week. Affected by the decline in terminal demand, the production schedule in November is expected to fall, and the transaction price remains flat. [4] 3.3 Market Data Charts - Industrial silicon: The report provides data on mainstream consumption area reference prices, major port/warehouse transaction prices, social inventory, factory inventory, monthly output,开工率, export and import volumes, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, and prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, and electrodes. [8][10][11] - Polysilicon: It includes data on spot prices, monthly output, industry 开工率, import and export volumes, industry profit calculation, and single - crystal silicon wafer export volume. [19][21][23] - Organic silicon (DMC): Data on average price trends, monthly output, 开工率, factory inventory, and industry profit calculation are presented. [24][27][38] - Aluminum alloy (Recycled aluminum): Information on price seasonality, monthly 开工率, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality is provided. [31][35][39]