Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On November 27, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5626, down 0.04%. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks. The short - term direction is to be treated as oscillating weakly. [2] - On November 27, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5390, down 0.44%. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions were mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices declined, and inventory decreased this period. The short - term direction is to be treated as oscillating weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,626.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,390.00 yuan/ton, down 26.00. [2] - The SM futures contract position was 737,538.00 lots, up 3,127.00; the SF futures contract position was 486,451.00 lots, up 24,144.00. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 8,840.00 lots, up 2,975.00; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 16,149.00 lots, up 987.00. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 50.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 36.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00. [2] - The SM warehouse receipts were 20,989.00 pieces, down 200.00; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,810.00 pieces, down 163.00. [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,250.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,100.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,180.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00. [2] - The manganese silicon index average was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25; the SF main contract basis was - 210.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00. [2] - The SM main contract basis was - 196.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 million tons, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operation rate was 39.13%, down 0.46; the ferrosilicon enterprise operation rate was 33.81%, down 1.03. [2] - The manganese silicon supply was 196,910.00 tons, down 2,660.00; the ferrosilicon supply was 108,300.00 tons, down 800.00. [2] - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000.00 tons, up 13,500.00; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050.00 tons, down 8,310.00. [2] - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15. [2] - The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel types was 121,407.00 tons, up 2,818.00; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,543.00 tons, up 469.20. [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26. [2] - The crude steel output was 7,199.70 million tons, down 149.31. [2] Industry News - The European Central Bank Chief Economist said that the world economy is undergoing profound changes beyond the impact of US tariffs, and Europe must start to find growth drivers locally. [2] - Pentagon believes Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD should be included in the list of enterprises assisting the Chinese military. [2] - From January to October, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan. [2] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. [2] Viewpoint Summary - For manganese silicon, on November 27, the 2601 contract fell 0.04%, the inventory rebounded rapidly, production declined slightly, and the short - term direction is oscillating weakly. [2] - For ferrosilicon, on November 27, the 2603 contract fell 0.44%, market transactions were mainly for rigid - demand restocking, prices declined, and the short - term direction is oscillating weakly. [2]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak supply and demand and cost support. The supply side has started a production cut trend, and the demand is expected to decline in December. The electricity price was stable and slightly stronger in November, which increased the cost [2][73][74]. - The price of silicomanganese is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The supply side has entered a production cut trend, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally in December. The manganese ore port inventory is lower than last year, and the price is strong, providing strong support for the cost [2][74]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendation - For unilateral trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom under the combined effect of weak supply and demand and cost support [3]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations on rallies [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In November, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated downward due to the pressure on steel profits, increased steel mill maintenance, and high enterprise inventories [7]. 2. Supply and Demand - Supply: The production of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is expected to decline slightly in November. On November 21, the national 136 - independent ferrosilicon enterprise sample开工率 was 33.81%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous period; the national 187 - independent silicomanganese enterprise sample开工率 was 39.13%, a 0.465% decrease from the previous period [23]. - Demand: The molten iron production showed a narrow - range fluctuation in November. It is expected to rebound in the short term but decline in December [24]. 3. Inventory - Alloy factory inventory: In November, the alloy factory inventory fluctuated upward, especially the silicomanganese inventory increased significantly. On November 21, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 7.31 tons, a decrease of 0.83 tons from the previous period; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.3 tons, an increase of 1.05 tons from the previous period [38]. - Downstream inventory: Steel mills may have phased replenishment demand in December, but the replenishment intensity is expected to be limited [38]. 4. Cost - The port steam coal price was strong in November, and the electricity price in the ferrosilicon production area was stable and slightly stronger, increasing the alloy production cost [54]. - The manganese ore port inventory is about 200 tons lower than last year. The price is strong, with the Tianjin Gangao block rising 0.8 yuan/ton degree and the Gabon block rising 1.7 yuan/ton degree in November, providing strong support for the silicomanganese cost [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices and their daily and weekly changes are presented for different types of ferrosilicon (FeSi) and silicomanganese (SiMn) in various regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi. For example, the latest price of 72 FeSi in Ningxia is 5100 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of -50 yuan [2]. - Price trends of different types of FeSi and SiMn from 2021 - 2025 are shown in graphs, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis differences [3][6]. Supply - Production - related data such as the output of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi), and the output of silicon - manganese in China (weekly) are presented [4][6]. - Data on the estimated and actual output of crude steel in China, metal magnesium production, and the procurement volume and price of FeSi and SiMn by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also included [4][6]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia), CZCE's warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5][7]. - The average available days of inventory in different regions (East China, South China, North China) are also shown [5]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - Profit - related data including the production profit of semi - coke, the profit of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi), and the export profit of 75% FeSi are provided [5][7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the manganese - silicon market, stating that the price of the ore end is firm and the market shows a wide - range fluctuation. The trend intensities of both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are neutral [1][3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon - iron futures (2603 contract) closed at 5416 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; 2605 contract closed at 5376 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan. Manganese - silicon futures (2601 contract) closed at 5630 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; 2605 contract closed at 5682 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of silicon - iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The spot - 03 futures spread of silicon - iron was - 296 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the spot - 01 futures spread of manganese - silicon was - 130 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 near - far month spread of silicon - iron was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 - 2605 near - far month spread of manganese - silicon was - 52 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On November 26, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions was 5050 - 5200 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton; 75 was 1090 - 1120 dollars/ton, down 10 - 20 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Steel Mill Pricing**: - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 5725 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), down 75 yuan/ton from the mid - month price. A steel mill in Guangdong set the price at 5730 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), down 20 yuan/ton from the mid - month price [2]. - **Production Information**: - In November, there were 13 silicon - iron enterprises in production in Inner Mongolia, with 75 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The开工 rate was 63.03%, up 0.64% from October, and the output was expected to be 158,700 tons, up 7300 tons from October. In November, 14 silicon - manganese enterprises in other northern regions were in operation, with 23 furnaces in operation at the end of the month. The silicon - manganese output in November was 79,700 tons, an increase of 2300 tons [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may have a marginal inflection point as policies are implemented and the macro - environment improves [4]. - Iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range due to strong supply, stable demand, and partial resource shortages during the macro - vacuum period [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, although the current downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to phased emotional disturbances [15]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely within a range, and future focuses are on the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [18]. - Glass prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 7773 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 100338 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices of rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3304 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract open interest decreased by 64552 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai summary prices of hot - rolled coils decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral overall performance. The terminal demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level was still high. The anti - dumping duty imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [4]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.38% (+ 3.00). The open interest decreased by 17489 lots to 41.98 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.02 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 50.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.00% [6]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. The overall inventory of iron ore was still high, but there were structural contradictions, and the spot had certain support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.11% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.59% at 5416 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 16 yuan/ton to the futures [9][10]. Strategy Views - Market risk appetite has weakened. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the decline of coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have dropped significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, there is no need to be overly pessimistic [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+ 60). The weighted open interest increased by 1722 lots to 433464 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 330 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [14]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 55895 yuan/ton, up 2.13% (+ 1165). The weighted open interest increased by 15342 lots to 254372 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 3645 yuan/ton [17]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has been decreasing, and the demand from downstream polysilicon and organic silicon has shown different trends. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - The production of polysilicon in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range [18]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+ 1). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (+ 0.09%). The number of long positions of the top 20 buyers increased by 17407 lots, and the number of short positions of the top 20 sellers decreased by 44249 lots [20]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 10). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (+ 0.09%). The number of long positions of the top 20 buyers increased by 3835 lots, and the number of short positions of the top 20 sellers decreased by 13280 lots [22]. Strategy Views - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December has increased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [21]. - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand. The demand for light soda ash is stable, while the demand for heavy soda ash is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak operation [23].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On November 26, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5,630, down 0.25%. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. [2] - On November 26, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5,416, down 0.70%. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices are falling, and inventory has decreased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,416 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract positions were 734,411 lots, up 17,984 lots; the SF futures contract positions were 462,307 lots, up 15,677 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese silicon were - 11,815 lots, down 6,298 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon were - 17,136 lots, up 147 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SM warehouse receipts were 21,189 lots; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,973 lots, down 20 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,270 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The average value of the manganese silicon index was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 216 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SM main contract was - 200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 39.13%, down 0.46%; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 196,910 tons, down 2,660 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 108,300 tons, down 800 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000 tons, up 13,500 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050 tons, down 8,310 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,407 tons, up 2,818 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 19,543 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,199.70 tons, down 149.31 tons [2]. Industry News - The "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons per Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, aiming to optimize the coal industry structure [2]. - On November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates, with some product tax rates up to 34.10% [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to advance a framework agreement to end the war with Russia [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: November 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron (SiFe)**: The latest prices of SiFe natural lumps in different regions such as Ningxia 72 (5130), Inner Mongolia 72 (5150), etc., showed various daily and weekly changes. For example, Ningxia 72 had no daily change but a -20 weekly change [2]. - **Silicon Manganese (SiMn)**: The latest prices of SiMn in different regions like Inner Mongolia 6517 (5520), Ningxia 6517 (5480), etc., also had different daily and weekly changes. Inner Mongolia 6517 had no daily change but a -80 weekly change [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production capacity utilization rates of 136 SiFe production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi showed different trends over the years from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of SiMn in China from 2021 - 2025 showed a certain range of values, from 5500 to 9000 [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data included the export prices of SiFe 72% and 75% at Tianjin Port, and the demand was also related to the production of products such as crude steel and metal magnesium [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for SiMn in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's caliber) showed an increasing trend from 2021 - 2025, from around 20 to 70 [4]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the CZCE SiFe warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, etc., were presented over the years from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory - related data included the CZCE SiMn warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related factors included electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), and the profit data included Ningxia SiFe's cost, profit from converting to the main contract on the disk, and spot profit [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of SiMn in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions, as well as the profit from converting Guangxi SiMn to the main contract on the disk, were presented from 2021 - 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may see a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2] - Iron ore has a high overall inventory but structural contradictions, with spot having some support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [5] - Ferroalloy prices have declined significantly, but there is hope for a turnaround in market sentiment in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [13][14] - Polysilicon is caught between reality and expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [16] - Glass prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [19] - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.550%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%), and the spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in terminal demand, but high inventory levels [2] - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will affect steel exports to some extent [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44% (+3.50). The weighted position was 92.57 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period, with reductions from Australia and Brazil. The shipments of the four major mines all declined. Non - mainstream country shipments reached a high for the year, and the near - end arrivals increased [5] - The average daily hot - metal output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts due to weak downstream demand and poor profits. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline [5] - Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories were consumed. There is a structural contradiction in iron ore, and the spot has some support [5] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Market Information - On November 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.11% at 5636 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 204 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.15% at 5448 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 48 yuan/ton to the futures [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Ferroalloy prices declined significantly due to weak market sentiment, cost - side pressure on coal, and a macro - policy window period. However, market expectations for a December interest - rate cut have risen, and the decline in coking coal prices may end [9] - It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price inflection points, and be cautious about overseas sentiment fluctuations [9] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, up 0.22% (+20). The weighted contract position increased by 3092 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54730 yuan/ton, up 2.65% (+1415). The weighted contract position increased by 3595 hands. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon production decreased, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon showed different trends. The cost side provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14] - Polysilicon production is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. However, prices are under pressure in the short term and are expected to fluctuate widely within a range [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+1). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (0.09%). The long and short positions of the top 20 holders decreased [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-10). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (0.09%), with decreases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The long positions of the top 20 holders decreased, and the short positions increased [20] Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December is increasing, with insufficient downstream demand and weakening price expectations. Glass prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19] - Soda ash supply exceeds demand, with differentiated demand. High inventory and weak demand are the main negative drivers, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation [21]

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,636.00 | +6.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,448.00 | -8.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 716,427.00 | -2060.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 446,630.00 | +10344.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -5,517.00 | +2709.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -17,283.00 | -1700.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 62.00 | 0.00 SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -16.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 21,189.00 | +392.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 10,841.00 | +1802.00↑ | | 现货市场 ...

| | - | - | - | | | - | - | - | - | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | - | - | -40 | 宁夏 | | - | - | - | 0 | 宁夏 | | - | - | 50 | 10 | 广西 | | - | - | 40 | 40 | 青海 | | - | 120 | -20 | 130 | 天津 | | - | 130 | 170 | 170 | 天津 | | 天津 20 - | 广西 140 | 宁夏 190 | 内蒙古 150 | 内蒙古 江苏 | 硅锰 | 天津 120 | 青海 250 | 宁夏 290 | 内蒙古 290 | 内蒙古 江苏 | 数据来源：银河期货、Mysteel 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 ...