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铁矿石四大矿山季度运营情况跟踪:主流矿山Q2产运追赶节奏显著加快
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 11:55
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2025, the production and transportation volume of the four major iron ore mines increased significantly, with a year - on - year growth of 3.5% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of nearly 20%, basically catching up to last year's level in the first half of the year [1][5]. - The trend of "increase in mainstream mines and decrease in non - mainstream mines" was further reflected in Q2, and the dominant position of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil in the global seaborne iron ore market may be further strengthened [2][44]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Overview of the Four Major Mines' Q2 2025 Operations - The total production/transportation volume of the four major mines in Q2 2025 was 293 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of nearly 20%. The significant volume boost by BHP and Fortescue in June was the main driver of the excellent performance in Q2 [1][5]. - In the first half of 2025, only Rio Tinto's production was still significantly behind last year's level. BHP and Fortescue both raised their production and transportation targets for FY26, indicating confidence in their supply chain efficiency and new production capacity [6]. 2. Key Points of the Four Major Mines' Quarterly Reports 2.1 Vale - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, Vale's iron ore production was 83.599 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Sales volume was 77.346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The C1 cash cost was 22.2 US dollars/wet ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%. The AIC was 55.3 US dollars/wet ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [8][12][13]. - **Operation Details**: The northern system's Q2 production reached 41.222 million tons, a record high since 2021. The southeast system performed well, with the fourth processing line of Brucutu driving production to a new high. The southern system's production declined due to construction issues. The company plans to conduct maintenance on the São Luis pellet plant in Q3. Pellet sales in Q2 were about 7.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [15][16][19]. 2.2 Rio Tinto - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, Rio Tinto's Pilbara mine production was 83.743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, reaching a new high since 2018. The shipping volume was 79.887 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The company maintained its Pilbara shipping volume guidance range of 323 - 338 million tons but expected the actual volume to be closer to the lower limit [22][23]. - **Operation Details**: The Western Range project was put into production in March and is expected to reach full production by the end of 2025. The Brockman Syncline 1 project is planned to be put into production in 2027, and the Hope Downs - 2 project started construction in June. The first shipment of the Guinea Simandou iron ore project is still expected in November, with an estimated shipment of 50 - 100 million tons in 2025 [25][27]. 2.3 BHP - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, BHP's equity production was 70.339 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Sales volume was 69.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In FY2025, the full - year equity production was about 263 million tons, higher than the previous guidance range. The company announced an upward - adjusted equity production guidance range of 258 - 269 million tons for FY2026 [31][32]. - **Operation Details**: In the Western Australia WAIO mine, the improvement of logistics efficiency and the full - production of the South Slope project contributed to the production increase. In the Brazilian Samarco, the production continued to rise with the help of the capacity ramp - up of the No. 2 concentrator [34][35]. 2.4 Fortescue - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, the company's iron ore shipping volume was 55.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In FY2025, the full - year shipping volume was 198.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The C1 cost of Pilbara hematite in Q2 was 16.29 US dollars/wet ton, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 7.1%. The company announced a shipping volume guidance range of 195 - 205 million tons and a C1 cost guidance range of 17.50 - 18.50 US dollars/wet ton for FY2026 [37][38]. - **Operation Details**: The shipping volume of the Iron Bridge project in Q2 was 2.4 million tons, and the full - year volume in FY2025 was 7.1 million tons. The company aims to reach full production of 22 million tons/year in FY2028 [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - In Q2, the four major mines made efforts to increase production. Rio Tinto and Vale contributed over 7 million tons of year - on - year incremental production. - The trend of "increase in mainstream mines and decrease in non - mainstream mines" was further strengthened. From January to June 2025, the global seaborne iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly year - on - year, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and their share in the global market reached 83.3% [44].
铁矿石巨头淡水河谷二季度:营收下滑11%、净利下滑24%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 23:09
来源:市场资讯 (来源:佛山市金属材料行业协会) 要钢资讯2025年08月01日 16:42江苏 公司同时宣布已获得巴卡巴铜矿初步许可,该项目将延长索塞戈矿区的服务年限。此外,本月奥萨普马 矿区第二座熔炉开始试车,预计四季度可实现镍产品投产。 OLYMPUS E WIDENT 豐斯德仪器 奥林巴斯光谱仪 适用行业 不锈钢成份分析牌号识别 · 合金PMI检测 · 资源再生 2025 · 电池危害物检测 · 矿山检测 · 镀层/涂层检测 2013 2017 2010 2019 众号 · 佛山市金属材料行业协会 佛山市惠霜全庫 I (2) 4200 佛山市惠磊金属有限公司 2024年度 跨境金融核心客户 l (原作版公司 (2) 2017) 1992 ) 二四年 G + 0 4 4 佛山市恵話金属有限公司 2023年度 魔金融核心 tia917 日本 -17 AS (D + 411 佛山市恵猛金属有限公司 2022年度 跨境金融优质客 22年度补足合用 优质合作企业 佛山作用製金属有限公司 佛山市总结全属有限公司 . 全球最大铁矿石生产商之一淡水河谷周四公布,第二季度净利润同比下降24%至21.2亿美元,仍优于分 ...
铁矿石周度观点-20250803
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 06:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The sentiment in the iron ore market has declined, leading to a downward adjustment in a volatile manner. The previous significant increase in the valuation of the black - sector under the support of theme trading and macro - policy expectations might have been an over - rise. Considering the relatively limited marginal changes in fundamentals, the recent decline in sentiment has caused the iron ore price to fall [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas shipments continued to recover, with the increase in the recent week mainly coming from Australia. The global shipment volume was 3200.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 91.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 181.9 million tons. Australian shipments were 1793.5 million tons, up 222.3 million tons week - on - week and 225.3 million tons year - on - year. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, down 23.5 million tons week - on - week and 35.1 million tons year - on - year [4][5]. - Among Australian shipments, FMG contributed the main increase in shipments to China, with a week - on - week increase of 84.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 170.4 million tons. Vale's global shipments decreased by 46.8 million tons week - on - week and 96.8 million tons year - on - year [4]. - In terms of non - mainstream mines, Peru's shipments recovered poorly. In the domestic market, the operating rate in North China declined significantly recently [20][27]. 3.2 Demand - The downstream iron - making production slightly decreased, with the 247 - enterprise hot metal output at 240.71 million tons, down 1.52 million tons week - on - week but up 1.10 million tons year - on - year. The output of the five major steel products still had a large year - on - year increase [4][30]. - The arrival of scrap steel increased recently, but the scrap steel price remained basically flat week - on - week. The scrap - iron price difference continued to narrow, but the narrowing slope slowed down [31]. 3.3 Contract Performance The price of the main 09 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 783.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 410,000 lots, a decrease of 119,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 lots [7]. 3.4 Spot Price Performance The spot price basically followed the futures market, showing a phased peak - to - trough decline. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) at Qingdao Port dropped from 882 yuan/ton last week to 870 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.5 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory had not arrived yet. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 13,657.9 million tons, down 132.5 million tons week - on - week and 1386.1 million tons year - on - year [4][35]. - Due to production - increasing demand and the decline in Indian shipments, the pellet inventory continued to be depleted [36]. 3.6 Downstream Profit The profit of finished steel products reached a high and then declined, including the spot profit of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts [38]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference The price of imported ores continued to decline, and the price difference between domestic and imported ores further widened [40]. 3.8 Futures Monthly Spread - The 09 - 01 monthly spread closed at 26 yuan/ton this week, narrowing week - on - week. - The 01 - 05 monthly spread closed at 23.5 yuan/ton this week, widening week - on - week [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The decline of the spot and futures prices was comparable this week, and the basis remained basically flat week - on - week [48].
矿石:给端表现增量,矿价或震偏弱运行
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:14
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - **Total Supply**: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - **Overseas Demand**: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - **Global Demand**: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]
市场情绪趋弱,钢矿高位回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 10:15
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱,钢矿高位回落 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价大幅下跌,录得 4.19%日跌幅,量仓收缩。现阶段, 政策预期兑现,前期乐观预期开始修正,且供需双弱局面螺纹基本面矛 盾在累积,钢价有所承压,偏弱情绪主导下预计螺纹短期延续震荡走弱 态势,关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板:主力期价弱势下行,录得 3.56%日跌幅,量仓收缩。目前来 看,乐观情绪消退,钢市运行重回产业端,供需双增局面下热卷基本面 在走弱,库存持续增加,叠加原料下行拖累,利空因素发酵,预计热卷 价格承压弱势下行,关注海外风险情况。 铁矿石:主力期价延续弱势,录得 2.38%日跌幅,量仓收缩。现阶 段,矿石需求韧性尚可,给予矿价支撑,但矿石供应将回升,需求表现 弱稳,供增需稳局面下矿市基本面预期走弱,叠加市场情绪不佳,矿价 延续弱势震荡态势,关注成材表现情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571- ...
中国罕王(03788) - 内幕消息 - 上马铁矿採矿许可证更新
2025-07-30 12:41
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性或完整 性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而 引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CHINA HANKING HOLDINGS LIMITED (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) (股份代號:03788) 內幕消息 承董事會命 中國罕王控股有限公司 主席兼執行董事 楊繼野 中國瀋陽,二零二五年七月三十日 於本公告日期,本公司執行董事為楊繼野先生、鄭學志先生、邱玉民博士及張晶女士;本公司非執行 董事為夏茁先生及趙延超先生;及本公司獨立非執行董事為王平先生、王安建博士及趙炳文先生。 – 2 – – 1 – 上馬鐵礦坐落在撫順鐵礦成礦帶的中心位置,區域內鐵礦資源易採好選,雜質含量 低,是國內優質的鐵礦石資源賦存區域。上馬鐵礦與遼寧省撫順市直線距離 30公里, 交通方便。礦區內有高壓工業電路,礦區附近水量充足,滿足礦山生產需求。此外, 上馬鐵礦處於本集團主力礦山毛公鐵礦和傲牛鐵礦之間,有利於本集團將來對三個礦 山進行整合和系統規劃。上馬鐵礦原有探礦權轉採礦權以後,還擁有2.5841平方公里 的 ...
钢材、铁矿石日报:政策预期兑现,钢矿冲高回落-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:20
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 政策预期兑现,钢矿冲高回落 铁矿石:主力期价转弱下行,录得 0.44%日跌幅,量增仓缩。现阶 段,矿石需求韧性尚可,继续给予矿价支撑,但供应预期回升,需求则 是弱稳运行,矿市基本面预期转弱,预计矿价延续高位震荡整理态势, 关注成材走势情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书,期 货投资咨询资格证书,本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价冲高回落,录得 0.42%日涨幅,量增仓缩。现 ...
铁矿石到货、发运周度数据(2025年第30周)-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:40
运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据(2025 年第 30 周) 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2319.70 万吨,环比减 192.10 万吨,持续减量;其中巴西矿环比降 207.80 万 吨,而澳矿到货则是增 57.10 万吨,低位有所回升;其他矿到货环比降 41.40 万吨,维持高位。 2、海外矿石发运持续回升,全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3200.90 万吨,环比增 91.80 万吨。增量来源 主要源于澳洲主流矿商,三家合计增 198.19 万吨,为此澳矿发运环比增 230.20 万吨,低位回升;巴西矿 发运则是减 26.20 万吨,维持年内高位;非澳巴矿环比减 112.20 万吨,再度回落。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将触底回升,但短期增幅有限,海外矿石供应趋稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 网址:www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址:杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄决胜千里 2、全球 19 港发运量 3、四大矿商发运量 网址:www.bcqhgs.com 2 地址:杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5 ...
哈萨克铁矿石探明储量超91亿吨,新疆的铁矿储量又是多少?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 01:07
转到新疆,新疆铁矿资源在全国排得上号,探明储量35.3亿吨,远景超90亿吨。矿区主要在西天山阿吾 拉勒矿带和西昆仑库什库尔干矿带,总共有332处铁矿区,其中大中型37个。品位不错,40%到50%, 比全国平均34.5%高出一截。2010年,西天山矿带有大突破,发现三处亿吨级矿床,总资源5亿吨,远 景20亿吨以上,占新疆预测量近四分之一。西昆仑的库什库尔干矿床储量超12亿吨,岔河口铁矿富矿量 8000万吨,平均品位58.62%,占新疆富铁矿六成多。预计整个矿带能到20亿到30亿吨。 说起铁矿石这事儿,哈萨克斯坦和新疆都算得上资源大户,尤其是哈萨克斯坦,那储量真不是吹的,已 经探明的超过91亿吨,这数字搁哪儿都够亮眼。新疆这边呢,探明储量是35.3亿吨左右,虽然比不上哈 萨克,但远景潜力也不小,能到90亿吨以上。 先从哈萨克斯坦入手。这国家铁矿资源丰富,主要集中在科斯塔奈州和卡拉干达州,那两个地方加起来 占国土面积五分之一多,但铁矿储量却占全国九成以上。探明储量91亿吨,这数据来自哈萨克地质部和 国际矿业评估,全球排名第六位。铁矿品位高,平均铁含量65%以上,属于富矿,容易开采和冶炼。 比方说,科斯塔奈州的卡恰尔 ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250722
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:53
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]