瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 螺纹钢市场周报 供应+需求双弱 螺纹期价陷入区间整理 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至11月14日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3053（+19），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+10）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量下调。200（-8.54），同比（-33.94）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需216.37（-2.15），（同比-14.47）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存576.17（-16.37），（同比+130.68）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率38.96%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年减少18.62个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）IMF预计，美国联邦政府"停摆 ...

几内亚西芒杜铁矿项目投产仪式于当地时间11月11日在福雷卡里亚省马瑞巴亚港举行。该项目是中国和几内亚两国的重点合作项目，中国企业在该项目的 矿山、铁路、港口等相关工程建设中发挥了重要作用。目前首船矿已经开始装船作业，11月将从马瑞巴亚港发出首船20余万吨铁矿石。全面投产后，铁矿 年出口量最高可达1.2亿吨。 西芒杜铁矿位于西非几内亚东南部，是全球品质最优、规模最大的矿山项目之一，也是非洲最大的绿地一体化矿山项目。已探明储量44亿吨，平均全铁品 位65%以上，且矿体集中、埋藏浅、易开采。 这一项目总投资逾200亿美元，涵盖矿山、铁路、港口等系统性工程。此次投产交付的项目工程就包括超过600公里的新建跨几内亚多用途铁路及配套港口 设施。 西芒杜铁矿项目主要参与方包括几内亚政府、赢联盟、中国宝武、中铝集团、SimFer等。其中，赢联盟是由新加坡韦立国际集团、中国山东魏桥铝业共同 组成的联合体；Simfer的股东为中铝铁矿控股有限公司和力拓子公司，而中铝铁矿控股有限公司的股东包括中铝集团旗下的中铝海外控股有限公司、中国 宝武旗下的宝武资源有限公司、中国铁建旗下的中国土木工程集团有限公司和中交集团旗下的中国港湾工程有限 ...

全球铁矿石市场终于要变天了。 西芒杜铁矿正式投产。 当地时间11月11日，西芒杜项目投产启动仪式在几内亚马瑞巴亚港举行，包括几内亚总统马迪·敦布亚 等几个国家领导人还有中国的副总理都参加了这次投产仪式。 公开资料显示，西芒杜铁矿储量至少30亿吨，已探明储量44亿吨，这个储量是非常庞大的。 最关键的是这个铁矿厂品位相当高，矿石平均全铁品位超过65%，属于全球最高和最珍贵的等级，而且 它具有矿体集中、埋藏浅、易开采等特点，属于世界级的大型优质露天赤铁矿。 也正因为如此，全球很多国家以及铁矿石巨头都对这个矿藏垂涎已久。 只不过这个铁矿石位于非洲欠发达地区，它在开展的过程当中并不顺利，甚至可以说是困难重重。 一方面是它的开采权在不断地变更。 刚开始的时候，西芒杜铁矿石的采矿权掌控在澳大利亚力拓的手中，早在1998年，地质学家西迪基·科 内带领团队为力拓集团进行测绘与钻探。 只不过到了2008年，几内亚前总统兰萨纳·孔戴剥夺了力拓一半矿权，并将其转交给以色列钻石大亨贝 尼·斯坦梅茨，后来斯坦梅茨又迅速将50%的几内亚资产以25亿美元出售给淡水河谷。 正因为开采权频繁变更，这个矿场一直没有得到很好地开发。 对这个西芒杜铁 ...

这项投资总额高达230亿美元的项目，将年产能力推至1.2亿吨，足以在全球铁矿石交易中占据显著份额。西芒杜铁矿的矿石品位高达65%，远超全球平均水 平，这意味着它不仅能降低炼铁成本，还能助力环保，减少碳排放。 最重要的是，中国在该项目中的主导地位，显示了中国企业在全球资源配置中日益增强的影响力。正如彭博社所言，西芒杜铁矿的投产将改变中国在全球铁 矿石市场的定价权，使得中国不再完全依赖于外国矿业巨头。 西芒杜铁矿项目的成功，不仅是经济利益的简单计算，更深藏着复杂的政治考量。美国的《华尔街日报》已经发出了警告，称中国在非洲的资源投资扩张将 使美国面临更多竞争压力。对于非洲国家而言，与中国的合作已逐渐一种新的发展模式，资源换基础设施的投资形式正在成为普遍趋势。 在非洲几内亚的东南部，一场被期待了近30年的巨型矿业项目——西芒杜铁矿，终于在2025年11月11日隆重投产。这不仅是几内亚经济发展的里程碑，更是 全球铁矿石市场的一次重大震荡。参与这一盛会的不仅有几内亚总统敦布亚，还有来自中国及其他国家的高层领导，这一盛况俨然成为了一场国际外交的秀 场。 早在1997年，英澳矿业巨头力拓就曾获得西芒杜铁矿的勘探权，但因多种因 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

Project Overview and Latest Developments - The Simandou iron ore project in southeastern Guinea is one of the largest undeveloped mines globally, with iron ore reserves of 2.4 billion tons and a total resource estimate nearing 5 billion tons, featuring high-grade ore with a content of 66%-67% [2] - The project includes a vertically integrated mining operation and unprecedented infrastructure development in Guinea, with a total designed annual capacity of 120 million tons from its four mining blocks [2] - The project is a joint investment exceeding $20 billion, involving multiple stakeholders including China Baowu, Rio Tinto, and the Guinean government [2] Transportation Infrastructure - A comprehensive transportation system has been constructed, including a 650-kilometer railway connecting the inland mine to the coast and a port with a total export capacity of 120 million tons per year [3] - The total investment in the transportation infrastructure is approximately $12.3 billion, with $8.8 billion allocated for rail and $3.5 billion for port facilities [3] Production and Economic Impact - The project officially commenced commercial operations on November 11, 2025, with an expected GDP growth contribution of 26% for Guinea by 2030 [4] - The first shipment of 2 million tons of iron ore departed for China, with annual shipments projected to be between 2.5 million and 3 million tons in 2025 [4] - Production will ramp up gradually, with expectations of reaching 60 million tons annually by 2026 [5] Market Influence - The project is set to alter the global iron ore supply landscape, potentially increasing Africa's share from 3% to 10%-15% by 2030, while reducing Australia's share from 60% to 45%-50% [6][7] - Upon full production, Simandou will add 120 million tons of high-grade iron ore to the market, accounting for approximately 5% of global supply [7] Pricing Dynamics - The project is expected to challenge the existing pricing structure dominated by Australian and Brazilian companies, enhancing China's bargaining power in iron ore negotiations [8][10] - The introduction of a new pricing index, the "North Iron Index," will directly compete with traditional pricing benchmarks [9] Steel Industry Transformation - The high-grade iron ore from Simandou is anticipated to drive upgrades in the steel industry, supporting lower carbon emissions and aligning with global green steel trends [11] - The project is expected to reduce steel production costs by 10%-15%, saving over 20 billion yuan annually for Chinese steel companies [11][12] Cost Structure and Future Projections - The production cost of Simandou is estimated to be between $60-$70 per ton, competitive with other major producers despite higher infrastructure costs [13] - In the medium to long term, the project is likely to lead to a decline in iron ore prices, with projections suggesting a drop to $70-$80 per ton over the next 2-5 years [15]

西芒杜铁矿位于西非几内亚东南部，是全球储量最大、品质最高的待开发矿山之一，也是世界级的大型 优质露天赤铁矿，拥有符合澳大利亚联合矿石储量委员会（JORC）标准的控制和推断铁矿石储量达24 亿吨，预计总资源量接近50亿吨，且矿石品位极高，项目整体矿石品位在66%～67%，位居世界前列。 2025年11月11日，西芒杜铁矿项目正式举行投产仪式，这标志着这座沉睡近30年的世界级铁矿正式进入 商业运营阶段。根据项目运营方的安排，2025年全年的铁矿石发运量预计为250万～300万吨。其中，北 部区块计划发运150万～200万吨，南部区块计划发运50万～100万吨。首批发运的铁矿石将主要供应中 国宝武等参与项目投资的中国钢铁企业，剩余部分将进入国际市场销售。 西芒杜铁矿项目的产能释放将按照"分步实施、逐步达产"的策略进行。几内亚政府官员在南非开普敦举 行的南非矿业峰会上透露，西芒杜铁矿项目的南北区块预计在2025年分别实现年产3000万吨，合计达到 6000万吨。到2026年，该项目的产量将翻倍，南北区块年产量分别增至6000万吨，总产量达到1.2亿 吨。 有望改变供应格局 长期以来，全球铁矿石市场由澳大利亚和巴西主导 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea marks a significant achievement in international cooperation, showcasing the potential for mutual benefits and shared development among nations [1][2] - The project is expected to produce 120 million tons annually, positioning Guinea as a key player in the global iron ore production and export market [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is located in southeastern Guinea and is recognized as a world-class high-quality open-pit iron ore resource [1] - The project faced challenges such as funding, technology, and infrastructure but has been successfully advanced through collaboration between Chinese enterprises, the Guinean government, and international partners [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The project is anticipated to significantly boost Guinea's economy, creating numerous job opportunities and fostering growth in various sectors including manufacturing, transportation, and services [2] - The establishment of an economic corridor connecting railways and ports will promote industrial clustering and regional synergy, benefiting local communities [2] Group 3: Global Significance - The production of iron ore is crucial for the global steel industry, and the Simandou project is expected to enhance the stability of the global iron ore supply chain, which has historically been concentrated in a few regions [2] - The project is seen as a stabilizing force in the global market, contributing to the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains, thereby supporting sustainable global economic development [2]

中新社北京11月12日电(记者庞无忌)备受全球矿业界瞩目的巨型项目——西芒杜项目，已在西非几内亚 正式投产。 西芒杜项目由几内亚共和国政府、赢联盟、SimFer合资公司等合作开发。项目正式投产后，所有共建基 础设施将移交至由几内亚政府持股15%、南部和北部区块合资公司各持股42.5%的跨几内亚公司运营。 (完) 全球矿业巨头力拓发布的消息称，当地时间11日，西芒杜项目合作伙伴赢联盟、中国宝武、中铝集团以 及力拓集团等共同出席在几内亚福雷卡里亚省港口举办的仪式，庆祝西芒杜项目正式投产。该项目是非 洲最大的绿地一体化矿山及基础设施项目。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 据了解，该项目将交付超过600公里的新建跨几内亚多用途铁路，并配套驳船及转运船港口设施。目 前，矿山、铁路及驳船港口系统基础设施的测试和调试工作正在进行中，西芒杜项目合作伙伴赢联盟与 SimFer均已开始通过跨几内亚铁路线将矿石从矿区运输至港口。 西芒杜矿山是能影响全球铁矿供需格局的"巨无霸"。据测算，该矿山铁矿石平均品位在65%以上，初期 年产1.2亿吨。 兰格钢铁研究中心主任王国清接受中新社记者采访时说，西芒杜项目投产是全球铁矿石市场的一个历史 性时 ...

几内亚总统府办公厅主任部长、西芒杜战略委员会主席吉巴·迪亚基特在仪式上表示："我们共同见证西 芒杜项目首批铁矿石的装运出口，这是几内亚人民期盼数十年的历史性时刻。对此，我们向所有参与这 项非凡项目的各方人士、合作伙伴、员工及社区成员致以最诚挚的谢意。几内亚政府将根据西芒杜2040 计划，构建可持续发展伙伴关系，促使自然资源成为推动国家可持续发展的引擎。" 作为股东方代表，宝武资源董事长施兵在仪式致辞中表示，未来，宝武资源将与几内亚政府、当地社区 及合作伙伴、各界朋友一道，共筑包容共享、可持续发展的合作生态，用高品质铁矿，推动全球钢铁产 业低碳转型，并携手中国大市场，助力几内亚经济繁荣发展，不断提升几内亚人民福祉和社会活力。 资料显示，西芒杜铁矿项目是包含矿山、铁路和港口的全产业链建设开发项目。项目矿山已探明储量44 亿吨，平均全铁品位65%以上，建成后总产能可达1.2亿吨/年；项目铁路横贯几内亚全国，主线铁路长 552公里，支线铁路长74公里，具备每年2.2亿吨的运输能力；项目港口由多方共同建设，设计矿石年吞 吐量超过1.2亿吨。 当地时间11月11日，西芒杜项目投产启动仪式在几内亚马瑞巴亚港举行。几内亚总统 ...