港股三大指数盘初探底后快速回升转涨，截止午盘，恒生指数微幅上涨0.04%，国企指数、恒生科技指 数分别上涨0.52%及0.63%，三者终结此前3日连跌行情。 盘面上，大型科技股涨跌各异，其中，快手涨1.69%，美团、京东、百度飘红，阿里巴巴、网易、小 米、腾讯小幅下跌；供给短缺+算力革命助推铜价上涨，铜矿股引领有色金属股上涨，中国大冶有色金 属飙涨近20%领衔，江西铜业涨超11%，中国有色矿业涨8%；香港本地银行股大涨，汇丰亚太拟以协议 安排方式将公司私有化，恒生银行盘中飙升41%创历史新高；多股涉矿产资源，高铁基建股大幅拉升， 中国中铁一度涨超10%表现最佳；机构称关注Q4低基数下供需修复，航空股集体回暖，中国东方航空 大涨近10%，风电股、芯片股、电信股、石油股、物管股纷纷上涨。 另一方面，药品类股全线下挫，诺诚健华、四环医药、信达生物领跌创新药概念股，国庆票房不佳，影 视股集体下挫，汽车股多数走低。(格隆汇) ...

降息周期工业品展望-铜 20251008 铜供应紧张，加工费低位致冶炼厂减产，废铜进口减少，印尼 Grasberg 矿山停产扰动未来产量，预计 2025 年 Q4 至 2026 年产量显 著下降，2026 年 Grasberg 矿山产量预计下降 35%，总产量减少 27 万吨。 全球及中国需求端乐观，新能源领域（充电桩、储能、新能源汽车、远 洋风电）对铜需求带动明显，预计 2026 年带动新增消费量 20 万吨以 上，中国电网投资每年新增消费量 30 万吨，预计明年电网投资增速较 高。 南亚、东南亚、中东及南美地区需求良好，土耳其消费增速突出，关税 扰动减弱，预计这些地区增量可达 40 万吨，增速约 10%。美国和欧洲 市场预期较高，AI 技术发展推动美国用铜需求，预计美国每年用铜增长 率为 10%。 欧洲政治问题影响有限，资本开支呈上升趋势。预计 2025 年 Q4 铜库 存下降约 10 万吨，2026 年缺口约 20 万吨，价格将反映预期并上涨， 阿罗比斯报告显示 2026 年深水报价为 315 美元，比之前提高 38%。 Q&A 当前铜价上涨的主要驱动因素是什么？ 当前铜价上涨主要由宏观经济和基本面因素 ...

美银证券将铜矿商麦克莫兰铜金的评级从"中性"上调至"买入"，维持42美元的目标价。(格隆汇) ...

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2025 年 9 月 30 日星期二 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 2025 年 9 月 30 日 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 分行业板块看，化工及金融强势，上涨板块中，券商、贵金属、基本金属分别上涨 4.89%、4.30%、 3.2 ...

Group 1 - Recent global copper production has faced significant disruptions due to natural disasters, with Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia expected to see a 35% drop in copper output by 2026, translating to a reduction of 270,000 tons from previous plans [1] - The Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reduced output by 150,000 tons due to seismic activity, while Chile's El Teniente mine has halted production due to a collapse [1] - Following these disruptions, U.S. copper stocks saw gains, with Hudbay Minerals rising nearly 8%, and copper futures on COMEX increased by 2.94% to $4.9120 per pound [1] Group 2 - Bank of America forecasts that operational issues at major copper mines will lead to lower actual production in the next two years, with a supply gap of 270,000 tons expected next year due to the Grasberg mine's shutdown [2] - European demand is recovering, and Chinese demand is stabilizing, putting pressure on copper supply, prompting an upward revision of copper price forecasts to $11,313 per ton for next year and $13,500 per ton for 2027 [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs indicates that upgrades in electrical grids and AI demand will drive copper prices higher [3] - Huatai Securities notes that while supply disruptions have been frequent since 2025, the most significant impacts are from the Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines, with a potential combined supply reduction of 400,000 tons by 2026, which could significantly improve the copper supply-demand balance [3] - The expectation of increased copper demand due to AI infrastructure, along with ongoing supply disruptions and a favorable monetary environment, suggests a potential bullish trend for copper prices [3] Group 4 - Related companies in the copper mining sector include Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358), and China Railway (00390) [4]

Group 1 - Recent global copper production has faced significant disruptions due to natural disasters, with Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia expected to see a 35% drop in copper output by 2026, reducing production by 270,000 tons compared to previous plans [1] - Other mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the El Teniente mine in Chile, have also experienced production cuts due to seismic events and collapses [1] - The copper sector saw a positive response in the stock market, with companies like Hudbay Minerals rising nearly 8% and copper futures on COMEX increasing by 2.94% to $4.9120 per pound [1] Group 2 - Bank of America forecasts that operational issues at major copper mines will lead to lower actual production in the coming years, with a supply gap of 270,000 tons expected next year due to the Grasberg mine's shutdown [2] - The demand for copper is anticipated to stabilize in China and recover in Europe, putting pressure on copper supply and prompting an upward revision of copper price forecasts to $11,313 per ton for next year and $13,500 per ton for 2027 [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs highlights that upgrades in electrical grids and AI demand will contribute to sustained increases in copper prices [3] - The Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines are identified as having significant and prolonged supply impacts, with potential reductions of 400,000 tons in total output by 2026, which could offset global copper production increases [3] - The market's expectations for AI-related infrastructure development, combined with frequent disruptions in copper mining, suggest a potential bullish trend for copper prices [3] Group 4 - Related companies in the copper mining sector include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), Zijin Mining (601899)(02899), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358), and China Railway (601390)(00390) [4]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on three core themes: technology leadership, boosting domestic demand, and security development. Key policy measures include stabilizing economic growth, enhancing total factor productivity, accelerating AI application, stabilizing manufacturing share, and investing more resources in human capital [4] - The pure bond fund analysis will examine approximately 1,000 pure bond funds, focusing on investor structure, bond types, duration, and leverage to accurately characterize each fund's duration style [4] - In the equity market, the new energy and TMT-themed funds showed superior net value growth, while the pharmaceutical sector continued to decline. There was significant net inflow into domestic stock ETFs, particularly in TMT and large-cap broad-based ETFs [4][5] Group 2 - Freeport has reduced its production guidance for 2025 and 2026 by 20,000 and 27,000 tons respectively, which accounts for 0.9% and 1.2% of global copper production in 2024. There is an expectation for copper prices to rise due to improved air conditioning production in the last quarter of the year [6] - The asphalt operating rate is at its highest level in five years, and the prices of ductile iron pipes and processing fees are at their annual peaks. The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, with potential PB recovery for steel stocks [6] - The construction materials industry has released a growth stabilization plan that emphasizes quality and efficiency, prohibiting new capacity additions. This plan aims to enhance profitability through coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [6] Group 3 - Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera and its next-generation weight loss product portfolio highlights the significant potential and long-term viability of the weight loss drug market. This move underscores the industry's urgent need for next-generation therapies and the competitive landscape in the GLP-1 sector [7]

Group 1 - HSBC predicts that by 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 4500 points, the CSI 300 Index will reach 5400 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index will reach 16000 points, representing an increase of 17-20% [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that over 90% of roadshow clients expressed willingness to increase exposure to Chinese assets, marking the highest interest since early 2021 [1] - Fidelity International notes a significant increase in global investors' interest in Chinese assets, with hedge funds showing the highest activity in China's stock market in recent years [2] Group 2 - Barclays states that gold prices do not appear overvalued, with gold ETF holdings at their highest since 2022, and prices have surged over 40% this year [2] - Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its cash rate, with a shift towards a less dovish communication stance [3] - Nomura also indicates that volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate may increase due to upcoming data and events [4] Group 3 - CICC suggests that the credit cycle in both China and the US may be approaching turning points, impacting market directions [9] - Guotai Junan emphasizes the importance of the fourth quarter for cyclical industries and high-growth sectors, with a historical tendency for cyclical industries to perform well [11] - Huatai Securities predicts that PPI year-on-year and industrial profits are likely to continue their recovery trend [14]

9月23日，2025中外知名企业四川行活动四川省战略性矿产资源矿业权出让区块集中推介会举行。推介 会集中介绍了26个拟出让区块情况，涉及油气、锂、铜、金等战略性矿产，均为四川优势矿种。 此次推介会以"激发市场活力、优化资源配置、促进矿业发展"为导向，邀请矿产资源产业链上下游知名 企业共85家，积极搭建矿业投资合作平台，助力新一轮找矿突破战略行动深入开展。 推介会上，四川省自然资源厅相关负责人介绍，"十四五"以来，全省累计出让矿业权372宗，实现出让 收益398亿元。其中，2023年出让54宗、成交价142.82亿元，创十年来最高水平；2024年出让111宗、成 交价133.64亿元，实现矿业权出让数量、收益"双百"突破。同时，四川厅积极统筹矿业权出让与产业发 展，推动资源跟着产业走、产业向着高端走。目前，锂电产业已形成原矿采选、基础锂盐、正负极材 料、锂电池全产业链，各环节产量规模均居全国前列。油气产业凭借资源优势和战略布局，成为我国能 源结构优化的重要支撑，已形成较完整的天然气产业链，涵盖勘探开发、管道运输、化工利用等领域。 ...