甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/23 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/06/1 6 800 7290 7375 9575 8000 845 906 -47 7338 -50 83 5734 2025/06/1 7 810 7300 7415 9750 8000 845 917 -13 7317 -20 80 5556 2025/06/1 8 820 7350 7465 9800 8500 850 917 -9 7418 -50 79 5556 2025/06/1 9 830 7400 7500 9950 8500 850 917 27 7462 -50 76 5556 2025/06/2 0 830 7400 7515 9925 8500 850 917 27 7415 -60 74 5437 日度变化 0 0 15 -25 0 0 0 0 -47 -10 -2 -119 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游去库，煤化工去库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09基差华北0 ...

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-06-22 地缘冲突提振，聚烯烃高位整理 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7415元/吨（-47），PP主力合约收盘价为7242元/吨（-32），LL华北现货为7480 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7450元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7290元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为65元/吨（+77），LL 华东基差为35元/吨（+27）， PP华东基差为48元/吨（+42）。 以色列伊朗地缘局势紧张，原油与丙烷价格大幅走高，聚烯烃成本端支撑增强明显。短停检修装置较多，未来预 计陆续开车，短期供应压力不大，镇海炼化4线50万吨/PP装置预计近期投产，未来供应有增加趋势。农膜开工季 节性淡季，需求端持续低迷，预计开工持稳，整体运行负荷处于低位。包装膜开工率同比偏低，塑编开工走低， 终端备货意愿偏低，刚需采购为主。生产企业库存小幅累积，中游贸易商环节库存走低，聚烯烃维持供需两弱格 局，宏观面不确定性较强。 策略 单边：中性。 跨期：无。 风险 宏观政治经济、原油价格波动、下游需求恢复情况 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral for unilateral trading, and there is no rating for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing a significant increase in international oil prices. This has strengthened the cost support for polyolefins. PE's supply remains high as some previously - shut - down plants have resumed operation, while PP's supply pressure is large due to the return of shut - down plants. The upstream inventory reduction is limited. In the seasonal off - season, downstream demand is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand from end - users. Although the agricultural film industry has bottomed out, it is still at a low level, and demand is not sufficient to drive the market. PDH - based PP production is in the red, with new and extended plant shutdowns, providing strong cost support for PP [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7338元/吨（+80），PP主力合约收盘价为7133元/吨（+44），LL华北现货为7300元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为 - 38元/吨（+20），LL华东基差为12元/吨（+20），PP华东基差为47元/吨（ - 14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为 - 244.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 584.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PDH制PP生产利润为33.4元/吨（+97.2） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 205.0元/吨（ - 12.8），PP进口利润为 - 352.7元/吨（+62.1），PP出口利润为6.7美元/吨（ - 7.6） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（ - 0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（ - 0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（ - 0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为79.25%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量34.908万吨，环比减少 0.44%,乙烯法企业产量11.692万吨，环比减少5.15%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为45.8%，环比减少0.47个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型 材开工率为37.55%，环比减少0.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 42.94%，环比减少1.44个百分点，低于历史平均水平 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 PP：价格上涨，刚需成交 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 PP 趋势强度：0 | PP 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2509 | 7133 | 1.15% | 398,212 | 4247 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 0 9合约基差 | -13 | | -29 | | | | 0 9-0 1合约价差 | 5 | 2 | 5 4 | | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 7070 - | 7250 | 7070 - 7200 | | | 重要现货价格 | 华东 | 7120 - | 7250 | 7060 - 7200 | | | | 华南 | 7090 - | 7330 | 7070 - 7300 | | 注：趋势强度取 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for plastics in the unilateral strategy, and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - In the traditional off - season of demand, the overall performance of the polyolefin demand side is weak, with weak downstream orders, reduced factory replenishment willingness, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation due to the expected start - up of multiple previously overhauled devices and the limited cost support from the significant decline in international crude oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7102 yuan/ton (-4), the PP main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton (+19), the LL North China spot was 7130 yuan/ton (-10), the LL East China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+60), the PP East China spot was 7100 yuan/ton (+20), the LL North China basis was 28 yuan/ton (-6), the LL East China basis was 78 yuan/ton (+64), and the PP East China basis was 140 yuan/ton (+1) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP operating rate was 77.0% (+1.6%), the PE oil - based production profit was 187.4 yuan/ton (+28.1), the PP oil - based production profit was - 92.6 yuan/ton (+28.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 117.3 yuan/ton (+4.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 302.5 yuan/ton (+13.2), the PP import profit was - 472.3 yuan/ton (+3.1), and the PP export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.4% (+0.7%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased, and the upstream factory inventory and trader inventory were slowly destocked [2]

库存：截至6月5日，PVC社会库存新样本统计环比减少1.48%至58.88万吨，同比减少33.83%；其中华东 地区在53.65万吨，华南地区在5.23万吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：截至6月5日PVC粉整体开工负荷率为77.47%，环比提升2.87个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负 荷率为79.90%，乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为71.13%。 【PVC现货】 【PVC行情展望】 国内PVC粉市场现货区间整理。贸易商基差报盘变化不大，点价成交暂无价格优势，一口价报盘部分变 化不大，局部实单成交跟涨乏力，当前贸易商部分销售压力较大，存在部分让利销售的情况。整体下游 采购积极性较低，多数意向观望，市场内现货成交清淡。5型电石料，华东主流现汇自提4690-4800元/ 吨，华南主流现汇自提4770-4820元/吨，河北现汇送到4490-4610元/吨，山东现汇送到4640-4670元/吨。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为80.72%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量35.065万吨，环比增加 6.59%,乙烯法企业产量12.327万吨，环比减少2.03%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为46.27%，环比增加.120个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游 型材开工率为38.05%，环比减少1.2个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 44.38%，环比增加.940个百分点，低于历史平均水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and the futures market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The petrochemical inventory is accumulating, while downstream factories have strong restocking efforts, leading to a slow reduction in upstream factory inventory and trader inventory. During the petrochemical plant maintenance season, there are many planned maintenance devices, and several previously shut - down devices are expected to restart soon, resulting in an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. It is currently the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film operating rate continues to decline, and the operating rates of other end - users fluctuate weakly. End - user factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The international crude oil price is on the rise, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. There is still cost - side support for PDH - made PP, and with the decline in propane prices, the operating rate of PDH - made PP has increased slightly [2]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,078 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,932 yuan/ton (+7). The LL spot price in North China is 7,090 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 7,070 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China is 12 yuan/ton (-12), in East China is 22 yuan/ton (-12), and the PP basis in East China is 138 yuan/ton (-17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 77.4% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 77.0% (+1.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 207.1 yuan/ton (-80.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 52.9 yuan/ton (-80.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 164.9 yuan/ton (+7.4) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (+52.8), and the PP export profit is 14.6 US dollars/ton (-1.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 12.9% (-0.1%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.9% (+0.3%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.7% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (+0.7%) [1]. II. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish on plastics [3]. - **Inter - period**: No inter - period strategy is provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Plastic - Market expectations are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of high production capacity, low profit, and weak demand. It is expected that the plastic 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7100 [4]. PP - Inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price, but the supply - side benefits are offset, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation exerts great pressure on the market. It is expected that PP2509 will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the short term, with a reference range of 6850 - 7200 [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE average price was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%. HDPE average price was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7414.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The LLDPE South China basis was 348.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.10%, and the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27) [4][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PE was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 77.41%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 59.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The maintenance loss this week was 12.04 tons, a decrease of 1.47 tons from last week [4]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 12.89%, a decrease of 0.09% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.89%, an increase of 0.30% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.83%, a decrease of 1.00% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 58.27 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week [4]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 6 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 8 yuan/ton (a change of 35 yuan/ton); the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27); the 9 - 1 month spread was 29 yuan/ton (- 8) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions of polyethylene showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [16][17]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [19]. - **Profit**: It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate increased, and the output increased slightly. There were many maintenance losses this week [25]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [27]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises had equipment maintenance, with different parking and start - up times [28]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film peak season has passed, and the start - up rates of packaging film and pipes are average. The market trading atmosphere is light [29]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: The production ratio of linear film is the highest, and there are differences between the current ratios of some products and the annual average levels [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises decreased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 5254 hands, a decrease of 5 hands from last week [42]. PP Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The polypropylene market first fell and then rose this week, with the price center of gravity moving slightly downward and the amplitude narrowing [46]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PP was 31.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.54 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 914.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.95 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.44%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 75.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.57% [6]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 50.01% (- 0.28%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 44.70% (- 0.50%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.41% (+ 0.65%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 56.09% (- 0.08%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.13% (- 0.14%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory was 60.51 tons (+ 9.36%), with an overall increase in inventory pressure. The inventory of two major oil companies increased by 11.03% month - on - month, the inventory of traders increased by 8.45% month - on - month, and the port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month [6]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of different PP products and related products showed different changes [47]. - **Basis**: On June 6, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7380 yuan/ton (- 13.33), with a slight month - on - month increase. The PP basis was 455 yuan/ton (- 63), and the basis strengthened. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the month spread widened [49]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 9 yuan/ton (a change of 24 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (1); the 9 - 1 month spread was 48 yuan/ton (- 25) [56]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP and coal - based PP decreased [60]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate decreased, but the output of pellets and powder increased [64]. - **2025 Second - Quarter Production Plan**: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in the second quarter of 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 427.5 [68]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines have long - term or short - term maintenance, with many of the start - up times undetermined [70]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the start - up rates of different industries showed different changes [72]. - **Demand (Product Proportion)**: The proportions of different PP products showed different changes [75]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - 569.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.34 US dollars/ton from last week. The export profit was 6.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.52 US dollars/ton from last week. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [76]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory increased, and the inventories of different sectors all increased. The finished product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises decreased, and the BOPP raw material inventory decreased [78][81]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 6, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 4885 hands, a decrease of 149 hands from last week [85].