Economic Outlook - The real estate sales decline is narrowing, with residential sales area in 67 cities down by 23% year-on-year as of January 16, compared to a 33% decline earlier in the month [2] - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries has slightly rebounded to 0.60% in December, indicating potential stabilization or improvement in China's export growth by May [2][25] - Commodity prices are rising, with gold at $4,590 per ounce (up 2.6%) and crude oil prices increasing to $59.4 per barrel (up 0.5%) [2][44] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index has decreased to 5.75% as of January 11, down 0.85 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity since late September [3][9] - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline of 32% year-on-year as of January 11, compared to a 14% decline in December [3][14] - The operating rates in most industries are weaker than the same period last year, with notable declines in construction and industrial production [3][19] Trade and Exports - The OECD leading indicator suggests a potential increase in China's export growth by May, as it typically leads export trends by about five months [25] - China's export volume has shown mixed results, with a decrease in the number of cargo ships to the U.S. by 30.2% year-on-year as of January 17 [27] Prices and Inflation - Commodity prices are generally rising, with significant increases in lithium carbonate prices (up 12.7%) and polysilicon prices (up 7.5%) [44][45] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities has decreased to 1.39% as of January 11, down from 1.64% in December [14] Interest Rates and Bonds - As of January 16, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are 1.2424%, 1.6099%, and 1.8424%, respectively, reflecting slight declines from the previous week [4][57] - The government is planning to issue 850 billion yuan in new local bonds, including 644 billion yuan in special bonds, to support debt clearance efforts [49][50]

集中开工热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 3 期） 本报告导读： 消费与科技领域政策协同加码，基建和房建建设进度较快，生产偏强。 投资要点： | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-23219820 S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国：消费者信心持续修复 2026.01.11 开年经济温和回暖 2026.01.11 元旦"微度假"热度高 2026.01.04 地缘风险再起，国际油价或迎剧烈波动 2026.01.04 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | ...

Group 1 - The spring market rally has entered its second half, characterized by reduced trading volume and rising prices, as regulatory signals promote a return to rationality in the market [4][6][10] - The average maximum increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the past 16 spring rallies was 15.8%, while the current rally has seen a maximum increase of 9.8%, indicating potential for further price increases [10][12] - Economic data is showing positive trends, with expectations for a continued rally supported by improving PPI figures and favorable policies from the government [10][20] Group 2 - The focus of the market is shifting from risk appetite to earnings growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, reaching 37.8% as of January 17 [13][19] - The reduction in competitive pressure (internal competition) is leading to a significant increase in the proportion of companies with improved earnings, particularly in industries such as steel, construction materials, and media [20][22] - The overall improvement in earnings among non-financial companies in the A-share market is evident, with a 5.8% increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive net profit growth [20][22] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, including non-bank financials, cyclical industries, and technology innovation [23][24] - Non-bank financials have shown the highest proportion of earnings revisions, with a 400% increase in companies adjusting their profit forecasts positively [23][24] - Cyclical sectors such as materials and energy are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side support, with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Keda Manufacturing announced a major asset restructuring plan, intending to acquire minority stakes in its subsidiary, Tefu International, which could enhance its parent company's performance and strengthen long-term development interests [2][13] - Resonac plans to increase the price of its carrier boards by 30% due to rising costs in electronic fabrics and copper foil, indicating strong demand driven by AI chips and consumer electronics [3][14] - The report highlights the importance of UTG glass and TCO glass in the aerospace sector, emphasizing their advantages in terms of lightweight and flexibility, which are critical for space applications [4][15] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Keda Manufacturing is planning to acquire minority stakes in Tefu International, which will consolidate its market position in overseas building materials, particularly in Africa [2][13] Industry Trends - Resonac's price increase for carrier boards reflects the competitive landscape driven by AI and consumer electronics, with significant implications for upstream materials like low-CTE electronic fabrics and carrier copper foil [3][14] - The aerospace industry is expected to increasingly rely on UTG glass due to its superior properties, with significant growth anticipated as commercial space ventures expand [4][15] Market Performance - The cement market shows a national average price of 348 RMB/ton, down 56 RMB/ton year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 39.9% [5][16] - The float glass market has seen an average price of 1138.27 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 1.46% week-on-week, indicating a mixed demand across regions [5][16] - The report notes a stable performance in the fiberglass market, with prices remaining steady and demand primarily driven by wind energy applications [18][20] Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations in various materials, including a decrease in cement prices and stable prices in the float glass market, reflecting regional demand variations [29][36] - The average price for 2.0mm coated panels remains stable at 10.5-11 RMB/square meter, indicating a steady market for photovoltaic glass [51][52]

Group 1 - The industry is experiencing increasing optimism, with many institutions expanding their investment banking operations. Leading brokerages are leveraging resource advantages to capture market share across all sectors, while smaller firms are focusing on regional or niche areas for breakthroughs. New productive forces have become a central focus for various stakeholders [1][3] - The market concentration of leading brokerages is on the rise, with approximately 70% of market share held by top institutions. The growth in M&A activities indicates that capital is gathering in areas of consensus. However, ordinary investors find it challenging to access core industry data and integrate it with daily market observations [3][4] Group 2 - A quantitative big data system can reveal clear signals of capital consensus. The "Capital Panorama" data visually presents the activity levels of institutional and retail investors, indicating when both types of capital are focused on the same asset, signaling a clear consensus [4][6] - Observing repeated signals of capital activity can help identify assets that are gaining attention from multiple funding sources, even before significant price movements occur. This approach allows for long-term monitoring of potential investment opportunities [6][10] Group 3 - By filtering out price fluctuations and focusing solely on trading behavior data, it is possible to concentrate on the actions of capital without being influenced by short-term price changes. This method helps avoid the pitfalls of "chasing highs and cutting losses" [7][9] - The frequency of consensus signals is indicative of stronger capital agreement, especially when prices have not yet surged. Early detection of these signals can prepare investors for upcoming market movements [10][12] Group 4 - The core value of quantitative big data lies in its ability to eliminate subjective judgment and restore the market's true state through objective data. This leads to a clearer and more stable observation logic, which is essential for sustainable investment strategies [16]

Core Insights - Tajikistan's trade with Iran is projected to reach $484 million in 2025, marking a 28% increase [1] - Tajikistan imports $371 million worth of goods from Iran and exports $113 million to Iran [1] - Iran has become Tajikistan's fifth-largest trading partner [1] Trade Dynamics - Tajikistan's main imports from Iran include petrochemical products, construction materials, and food [1] - The primary exports from Tajikistan to Iran consist of raw materials such as aluminum ingots and cotton fibers [1]

Group 1 - BlackRock increased its stake in China National Building Material (03323) by 42,903,256 shares at a price of HKD 4.8891 per share, totaling approximately HKD 210 million [1] - Following the increase, BlackRock's total shareholding in China National Building Material is approximately 316 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 8.52% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt emphasizes ecological priority and green development, contributing significantly to China's GDP and carbon emissions reduction efforts [1]. Group 1: Achievements in Green Development - Over the past decade, the Yangtze River Economic Belt has promoted the green transformation of traditional industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and building materials [1]. - The region has established 24 national carbon peak pilot cities and parks, along with 14 zero-carbon parks, showcasing its leading role in ecological and green development [1]. - Sichuan province, a key ecological barrier, has achieved an annual clean energy generation of over 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for over 80% of its total energy output, and has seen a nearly fourfold increase in new energy installations over five years, reaching 25.19 million kilowatts [1]. Group 2: Specific Pilot Cities and Parks - Leshan, located in Sichuan, is a national carbon peak pilot city with abundant hydropower resources, featuring 327 hydropower stations and an annual generation of approximately 26.5 billion kilowatt-hours [3]. - The Yibin Lingang Economic and Technological Development Zone aims to create a zero-carbon park, with over 70% of its industries being green and low-carbon [5]. - The Chongqing Jiulong New City Park serves as a national carbon peak pilot park, focusing on an aluminum industry chain and innovative green logistics [7]. Group 3: Regional Contributions - Hubei province plays a pivotal role in the central region's rise, hosting two national carbon peak pilot cities and a zero-carbon park, with a focus on green transformation in the automotive industry [10][12]. - Jiangsu province, located in the Yangtze River Delta, has four national carbon peak pilot cities and parks, promoting a circular economy and low-carbon development through various initiatives [18]. - Zhejiang province has three national carbon peak pilot cities and a zero-carbon park, emphasizing the integration of green manufacturing and renewable energy [24][26]. Group 4: Innovative Practices - The Suzhou Industrial Park has established a market-based voluntary emission reduction trading system, serving over 500 enterprises and promoting sustainable development practices [20]. - The Shanghai Lingang New Area Zero Carbon Bay has attracted major industries and aims to create a comprehensive zero-carbon system integrating various renewable energy sources [23]. - The Guizhou Big Data Science and Technology Innovation City focuses on green energy and advanced manufacturing, with a significant portion of its energy coming from renewable sources [39].

Group 1 - The Xu Hui District Intellectual Property Protection Center has been established to create a comprehensive "one-stop" service system for intellectual property issues, gathering nine units including the district court and procuratorate [1][2] - The center aims to develop a "15-minute intellectual property service circle" centered around No. 650 Caobao Road, enhancing public services and addressing the needs of innovative entities [1][2] - The center has successfully handled a large-scale trademark registration change for Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd., completing the process in one month instead of the usual year [3] Group 2 - Xu Hui District hosts 114 trademark agencies and 54 patent agencies, actively attracting quality service institutions to enhance intellectual property services [4] - Armstrong (China) Investment Co., Ltd. has applied to join the Shanghai Key Trademark Protection Directory, which will strengthen its defense capabilities against intellectual property infringements [4] - The center is promoting the concept of "data intellectual property registration," allowing companies to monetize valuable data resources, such as AI algorithms, as part of their assets [4] Group 3 - The Xu Hui District Intellectual Property Bureau has organized a customized expert consultation for American Standard (China) Co., Ltd. to enhance brand protection against counterfeiting [6] - A three-person expert team was assigned to provide actionable advice, including changing enforcement locations and leveraging customs policies to combat counterfeit sources [6] - The core trademark of American Standard has been included in the Shanghai Key Trademark Protection Directory, enhancing its protection against infringement [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of short video platforms on traditional manufacturing businesses in Sanshui District, enabling them to enhance brand visibility and customer acquisition through digital marketing strategies [4][12]. Group 1: Business Transformation through Short Videos - Companies like Chuangmeijia and Shangcheng have successfully leveraged short video platforms to increase sales and customer engagement, with Chuangmeijia's manager achieving over 6 million yuan in sales within a year of starting her account [4][6]. - The shift from traditional customer acquisition methods, which often cost over 300 yuan per lead, to more cost-effective digital strategies has become a primary motivation for businesses to engage in short video marketing [5][6]. - The algorithmic nature of short video platforms allows companies to break geographical and industry barriers, rapidly building brand recognition and expanding their market reach [6][7]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions in Digital Transition - Entrepreneurs face challenges such as initial discomfort in front of the camera and content creation hurdles, which they must overcome to successfully transition into digital marketing [8][9]. - The emergence of AI tools has significantly lowered the barriers to video content creation, enabling even those with minimal experience to produce engaging content [10]. - Continuous content output is essential for building trust with potential customers, as demonstrated by the consistent posting of videos by entrepreneurs [10][11]. Group 3: Community and Training Initiatives - The Sanshui District has initiated a comprehensive training program to enhance digital skills among local businesses, aiming to create a robust ecosystem for digital marketing [10][12]. - The establishment of a city-wide alliance of digital partners has facilitated collaboration among businesses, new employment groups, and content creators, expanding the reach of digital marketing efforts [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that the shift to digital marketing is not merely a trend but a strategic necessity for survival in a competitive market, as traditional marketing channels become less effective [13][14]. - The new sales logic driven by digital platforms encourages companies to be more responsive to market demands and innovative in their product offerings [13][14].