5月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2352.21亿元、同比增长8.5%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，今年以来呈 逐月加快态势，高于全国2.1个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长16.2%，比上月加快1.3 个百分点，高于全国8.2个百分点。1-5月，全省社会消费品零售总额11820.14亿元、增长7.5%，比上月 加快0.3个百分点，高于全国2.5个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长14.3%，比1-4月加快 0.4个百分点，高于全国8.0个百分点。超八成商品零售保持增长。5月份，在限额以上单位的23类商品 中，有19类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面达82.6%、与上月持平。两新政策效应持续释放。5月 份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位机电产品及设备类商品零售额增长 46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、可 穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%、 27.0%，对全省限额以上单位零售额增长贡献率达56.8%、同比提高23.6个百分点。基本生活消费品增长 较快。5月 ...

信用债收益率跟随利率下行 7 年期品种表现强势 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 3信用债收益率跟随利率下行 7 年期品种表现强势 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 信用债收益率跟随利率下行，7 年期品种表现强势。本周利率债收益率整体 下行，1Y 和 3Y 期国开债收益率下行 2BP，5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开债收益率 下行 3BP。信用债收益率跟随下行，7Y 期品种下行幅度最大。1Y 期各等 级信用债收益率下行 2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 2-3BP；5Y 期 各等级信用债收益率下行 1-3BP；7Y 期各等级收益率下行 4BP；10Y 期 AAA、AA+和 AA 等级收益率 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market jumped 1.26% amid international capital reacting to U.S. President Trump's management of expectations regarding potential military action against Iran [1] - Trump's decision to delay military action against Iran for two weeks aligns with Israel's urgency to target Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow nuclear site [1] Geopolitical Risks - Iran's missile attacks have decreased in intensity, averaging 20-30 high-intensity missiles daily, but threats to Israeli targets in Europe have emerged [2] - The Iraqi Shiite militia "Hezbollah" has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. intervenes in the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to a decline in shipping traffic through the strait [2] Financial Developments - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched a cross-border payment system, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for cross-border remittances [3] - Major Chinese banks involved in the cross-border payment system saw stock increases of around 2% [3] - Insurance stocks also surged, with companies like China Life and New China Life rising over 4% due to stable investment returns [3] Industry Innovations - China's domestic EUV lithography machine has achieved a significant milestone with a production yield exceeding 70%, marking a critical point in the development of high-end chip manufacturing [6] - This advancement indicates a potential shift in the global semiconductor landscape, reducing reliance on foreign technology [6] Company-Specific Insights - China Coal Energy reported a decline in revenue and profit due to falling coal prices, with average prices for various coal types down significantly compared to the previous year [7] - The company is implementing cost-reduction measures and has seen its major shareholder increase their stake, reflecting confidence in the company's future [8]

"263上20运输巷皮带机怎么停机了？"该矿总工程师王宜清不下井时，也随时查看掘进区队的视频监控，一旦发现问题，立即调度情况。同时还在该矿生产 调度协调微信群里催促设备、物料到位情况。 掘进效率直接影响矿井生产接续。针对6个掘进工作面施工的繁重任务，柴里煤矿全力抓好生产协调，及时解决制约生产的因素。同时排定生产计划，按照 时间节点，倒排工期，千方百计提高掘进效率。 在此基础上，该矿掘进专业发挥好专业队伍作用，安排巷修等工区根据工程节点和现场实际，全面做好综掘机安装、巷道修复、质量创建及尾工处理等工 作，全力为掘进区队做好服务保障工作。 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 白新鑫 通讯员 房蓝军 殷宪芝 邵照棋 郭滕 "掘进专业干部职工大局观念强，责任心强，能够自我加压、主动对标、精细管理，对重点接续工程抓得紧、抓得实，近两个月以来，工作突出、值得肯 定，给予点赞、提出表扬。"山东能源枣矿集团柴里煤矿矿长苏林在六月份工作会议上重点对采掘专业给予表扬！ 5月份，柴里煤矿在受接续紧张、采场条件差、工作面不规则等因素制约的情况下，掘进进尺完成936.1米，实现逆势提升。这份"成绩单"背后，到底有着怎 样的"掘"招？让我们一探究竟 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Energy Storage and New Energy - Major energy storage companies have diverse business models and regional layouts, with promising expansion in non-US markets [2][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Aiko Solar in the energy storage sector, particularly in overseas markets [7][8] - The demand for energy storage in Europe, the Middle East, and Australia is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase in installed capacity [9][10] Group 2: Key Insights on Coal Industry - The coal market is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with both thermal and coking coal prices stabilizing, and potential exits of high-cost mines [3][14] - The average sales cost for thermal coal is approximately 291 RMB/ton, while for coking coal it is about 507 RMB/ton, indicating profitability for thermal coal producers [12] - The coal industry is expected to maintain high dividend yields, with an average cash dividend payout ratio of around 62% for major listed coal companies in 2024 [14][13] Group 3: Key Insights on Semiconductor Industry - The rise of edge AI computing is driving demand for AI-enhanced System on Chip (SoC) solutions, which are crucial for smart devices [4][16] - Wireless communication technologies are expanding, with increasing demand for low-power IoT connection chips in various applications [4][16] - The integration of AI in consumer electronics is enhancing user experience, with products like smart glasses and smart speakers becoming key platforms for AI technology [4][16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the coal sector within the Hong Kong stock market, particularly regarding dividend performance and market dynamics in 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Seasonal Effect on Dividends**: The probability of Hong Kong stocks outperforming the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index in June is approximately 60%, driven by seasonal factors such as dividend chasing and increased risk appetite [1][3]. - **Attractiveness of Coal Dividend Yields**: The coal sector still offers attractive dividend yields, but attention must be paid to the resilience of the underlying fundamentals. The current low crowding in the coal sector presents a left-side layout opportunity [1][6]. - **AH Premium as a Timing Indicator**: The AH premium rate is a critical timing indicator for dividend stocks. When the premium reaches 125%, the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks declines, potentially leading to a capital flow back to A-shares [1][9][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Hong Kong market has outperformed the A-share market due to a higher AH premium and significant inflows of southbound capital. The DPC technology opportunities are also concentrated in Hong Kong stocks [1][8][14]. - **Impact of External Factors**: The U.S. tariff policies and the diminishing drive from emerging industries have created disturbances in market risk appetite, affecting the performance of growth stocks and overall market sentiment [4][5]. Additional Important Content - **Investor Sentiment and Market Timing**: The seasonal effect of Hong Kong dividends is particularly pronounced in June and October, correlating with the timing of financial disclosures and dividend distributions [3][12]. - **Coal Sector's Current Position**: The coal sector is currently viewed with caution, focusing on when the adjustment phase will end and whether a rebound can be sustained. The low trading heat and crowding in the coal sector suggest a good opportunity for left-side layouts [6][13]. - **Future Monitoring Indicators**: Key indicators for future investment decisions include the AH premium, net inflows of southbound capital, and developments in the technology sector [8][14][15]. - **Investment Opportunities in Coal**: The coal sector is expected to see a rebound driven by fundamental improvements, seasonal demand, and potential inflows from long-term capital, particularly if external factors align favorably [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and dynamics affecting the coal sector and the broader market context, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investment considerations.

Group 1: Global Gas Turbine and Aerospace Engine Demand - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 60GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed until 2028 [3][4] - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova added 7.1GW in new gas turbine orders, a 44.9% year-on-year increase, primarily from heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing robust demand, with Boeing reporting a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, raising its backlog to 5943 aircraft [5][6] Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy and Chromium Salt Industry - The growth in gas turbine and aerospace engine demand is driving the need for high-temperature alloys, with domestic manufacturers poised to benefit from supply chain constraints [9][13] - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sry New Materials are expanding their production capabilities and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [9][10] - The high-temperature alloy sector is rated as "recommended" due to the increasing demand for core components amid supply chain shifts towards China [13] Group 3: Coal Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating a recovery in the coal supply [15][18] - The industrial electricity generation in May 2025 showed a positive shift, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [19][22] - The coal market is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [21][23] Group 4: Real Estate and Land Market Factors - The land market's performance is influenced by five key factors, including financing environment, new housing market stability, inventory reduction, sales model changes, and land supply rules [24][27] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery in the real estate market, with new housing transactions positively impacting land market activity [29][30] - The land market is entering a "dual concentration" phase, with significant activity concentrated in major cities and among top real estate firms [25][26] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) is leveraging its position in Yiwu to enhance its global trade capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [36][39] - Huayi Group is diversifying its operations across five core business areas, reporting a revenue increase of 9.3% in 2024 [40]

Market Overview - On June 18, the A-share market experienced a slight rebound after a day of bottom testing, with the three major indices showing minor increases. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed a mixed performance with over 3,400 stocks declining. Notable sectors included strength in computing hardware stocks, with companies like Huadian Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - AI glasses concept stocks remained active, with Bi Yi Co. also reaching the daily limit. Conversely, rare earth permanent magnet stocks experienced a downturn, with Zhongke Magnetic Materials dropping over 10% [1] International Market - In the U.S. stock market on June 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 44.14 points (0.10%) to close at 42,171.66 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 1.85 points (0.03%) to 5,980.87 points. The Nasdaq Composite, however, rose by 25.18 points (0.13%) to 19,546.27 points [3][4] - European markets showed mixed results, with the FTSE 100 up by 9.44 points (0.11%) while the CAC 40 and DAX indices fell by 27.61 points (0.36%) and 116.84 points (0.50%) respectively [3][4] - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $0.30 (0.4%) to $75.14 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.25 (0.33%) to $76.70 per barrel [3][4] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released opinions on establishing a growth layer in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to enhance institutional inclusivity and adaptability, allowing unprofitable companies to list under the fifth set of standards [5][6] - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, aiming for significant improvements in financial system adaptability and competitiveness over the next five to ten years [7] - The CSRC announced that qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in ETF options trading starting October 9, 2025, as part of efforts to optimize the foreign investor system [8] Industry Insights - According to Guohai Securities, the coal mining industry continues to face supply constraints, with demand expected to fluctuate. Leading coal companies exhibit strong asset quality and cash flow, characterized by high profitability and dividends [12] - Guolian Minsheng Securities anticipates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with life insurance new business value expected to improve and property insurance profitability gradually increasing [12] - CITIC Securities noted that the recent bidding for wind turbine procurement by State Power Investment Corporation indicates a rising trend in domestic wind turbine prices, suggesting a potential for sustained performance in the wind energy sector [12] Automotive Market - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicated that retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 402,000 units in the first half of June, marking a 38% year-on-year increase. The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles stood at 57% [11]

Core Insights - The current ten-year government bonds have high investment value, optimizing risk-return performance in portfolios and showing low correlation with other assets like stocks and gold [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for ten-year bonds, with a loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, leading to better performance compared to other assets during this phase [2][3] Ten-Year Government Bond Historical Analysis - The long-term trend indicates a downward shift in interest rates, primarily driven by declining real returns, with expectations of lower financing costs due to weakening prices [3] - Financial institutions are experiencing a downward trend in earnings, with deposit and investment product yields decreasing further from the beginning of the year [3] - Supply-demand dynamics and central bank liquidity support are expected to drive interest rates lower, with a potential asset shortage emerging as bond supply slows [3] Ten-Year Government Bond Advantages - Interest rates are anticipated to reach new lows, with expectations of the ten-year bond yield dropping to 1.4%-1.5% within the year [4] - The ten-year bond serves as a crucial benchmark rate, balancing long and short-term funding needs and is a key reference for pricing other financial products [4] - The 国泰上证 10-year government bond ETF is the only ETF tracking the ten-year bond index, utilizing an optimized sampling method to enhance liquidity and reduce trading costs [4][5] ETF Characteristics - The 国债 ETF operates on a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which facilitates multiple trading opportunities within a single day [5] - The ETF maintains transparency in holdings, with daily disclosures, making it suitable for conservative long-term investors [5] - The ETF has low fees, high liquidity, and a strong historical performance, managed by experienced fund managers [5] Industry Performance Overview - The steel industry saw a 6.9% year-on-year decline in crude steel production in May, indicating a need for further observation regarding production strength [14] - The coal industry experienced a continued decline in imports, with a slight increase in thermal power generation, suggesting a potential rebound in demand [15]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 108 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 6 月 17 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 朱毅 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 王逸奇 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：李正威 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1、中药行业（许雯） 核心要点： 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ下跌0.32%，医药板块涨跌互现，中药表现相对较弱 根据wind数据，上周（2025.06.08-2025.06.14）医药生物报收7895.79点，上涨1.4%；中 药Ⅱ报收6410.24点，下跌0.32%；化学制药报收12686.19点，上涨3.53%；生物制品报收6212.51 点，上涨0.33%；医药商业报收5099.4点，下跌0.83%；医疗器械报收6147.18点，下跌0.52%； 医疗服务报收5403.37点，上涨2.42%。医药二级子板块涨跌互现，化学制药表现最好，中药 表现相对较弱。 根据wind数据，上周中药 ...