Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

在连续多日上涨后，金银走势再次出现分化，银价突发剧烈调整。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚 至喊出4900美元/盎司。 黄金逼近前高 当地时间12月12日，海外贵金属市场呈现冲高回落，黄金守住涨势、逼近前高，银价收盘大跌。伦敦金当日上 涨0.47%报4299.29美元/盎司，伦敦银则下跌2.5%、收报61.92美元/盎司。前者年初至今涨幅已达63.83%，后者 今年涨幅高达114.35%。 今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有余。 相对白银，机构显然更加看好黄金。高盛认为，如果家庭或机构能够切实增加黄金持有量以作为风险分散手 段，尤其是在全球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的情况下，包括对财政前景的担忧时，那么这些资金流入可能 会"大幅推高"小规模黄金市场的价格。该行预测，到2026年底，黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，但同时表 示，如果私营不满的购买量超出近年来一直主导需求的央行范围，那么这一预测还将存在"显著的上涨风险"。 世界黄金协会出，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多 重因素的共同推动，包括地缘政治与 ...

今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有余。 在连续多日上涨后，金银走势再次出现分化，银价突发剧烈调整。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚至喊出4900美 元/盎司。 相对白银，机构显然更加看好黄金。高盛认为，如果家庭或机构能够切实增加黄金持有量以作为风险分散手段，尤其是在全 球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的情况下，包括对财政前景的担忧时，那么这些资金流入可能会"大幅推高"小规模黄金市场的 价格。该行预测，到2026年底，黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，但同时表示，如果私营不满的购买量超出近年来一直主导需 求的央行范围，那么这一预测还将存在"显著的上涨风险"。 世界黄金协会出，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多重因素的共同推 动，包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。投资者与各经济体央行纷纷增持黄金，以寻求 资产的多元与稳定。 黄金逼近前高 当地时间12月12日，海外贵金属市场呈现冲高回落，黄金守住涨势、逼近前高，银价收盘大跌。伦敦金当日上涨0.47%报 4299.29美元/盎司，伦敦银 ...

（来源：微博沧州） 来源：滚动播报 【#银价飙涨##投资银条卖爆了#】今年以来，黄金价格持续创下历史新高，白银的价格也在持续上涨， 伦敦现货白银价格突破42美元每盎司关口，创了14年以来的新高，今年累计涨幅已经超过40%。上海期 货交易所沪银期货主力合约价格突破1万元每千克关口，创下近13年以来新高，今年累计涨幅已经超过 30%。在深圳一家白银型材加工厂，负责人告诉记者，伴随着银价持续攀升，成品投资银条的需求量明 显上涨，首饰类半成品的订单却在减少。银价为何暴涨？据了解，白银被广泛应用于电子、可再生能源 和医疗卫生等工业领域。根据世界白银协会的数据，2024年白银下游需求中，工业、珠宝首饰、投资分 别占比58%、18%、16%，其中属于工业的光伏领域占比17%。此外，今年以来全球贸易政策不确定性 和地缘政治局势紧张推升了避险情绪，驱动黄金价格大幅走强，从而带动白银价格稳步上涨。此外，美 联储降息等政策也利好白银的金融属性。（央视财经） ...

近期白银价格持续上涨，引起各方广泛关注。 1 2 月 1 2日，国内和国际市场白银价格均再创历史新高。 记者实探发现，银价的持续上涨，也助推银饰价格大幅上涨，目前市面上的银饰价格已较一年多前实现翻倍。另外，银价上涨也对相关产业链企业带来不同的影 响。 有专家在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，展望2026年，美元信用收缩的时代叙事将继续主导金银牛市趋势，随着降息逐渐驱动基本面修复，叠加全球财政共振扩 张，2026年全球经济或从软着陆向温和复苏过渡，顺周期资产将会更加受益，白银上涨弹性更大。 记者实探：银饰价格一年多时间已翻倍 在白银价格再创新高之际，银饰价格也随之大幅上涨。 证券时报记者12月12日来到我国黄金珠宝集聚区之一的深圳田贝地区发现，目前该地商家的银饰价格较一年多前普遍已翻倍。当地不少银饰商家兼营银饰的零售和 批发，价格还比其他地方便宜不少，但款式和工艺相对简单，一些商家按克重计价的银饰多为17元/克～18元/克，另有一些银饰则按件售卖。去年记者也曾探访当 地一些银饰店，当时不少店铺的银饰报价一度在9元/克左右。 另外，在一些城市商业区的银饰店，普遍面向终端零售客户，银饰售价普遍要贵不少，但款式更为新潮， ...

究竟是什么力量撑起了白银的翻倍涨幅？是供需缺口的集中爆发，还是资金与政策的双重助推？面对这 样的历史级行情，普通投资者该跟风入场，还是保持观望？ 其实内行人早已点明背后真相，这波上涨绝非偶然，背后藏着关乎趋势的关键逻辑。 打破"影子宿命" 长期以来，市场对白银的解读始终存在致命偏见：将其视为黄金的"低配版替代品"，仅关注其金融避险 属性，却选择性忽视其工业刚需品的核心价值。 这种片面认知，令白银真实价值被黄金光环掩盖许久。 事实上，白银的双重属性远比黄金更具成长张力，既能在宏观经济动荡时承接避险资金，又能深度绑定 全球产业升级浪潮，这是黄金难以比拟的独特优势。 最近贵金属市场彻底被白银点燃！小李看着伦敦现货白银狂涨110%创下历史新高，涨幅直接碾压黄 金，身边不少朋友都在疯狂讨论这波行情。 曾经的"黄金跟班"突然逆袭封神，从被忽视的配角变成人人追捧的香饽饽，这样的暴涨实在让人始料未 及。 小李始终认为，资产定价始终离不开市场认知的迭代，白银此番逆袭的底层逻辑，首先是一场认知革 命。 早在银价暴涨之前，市场已有蛛丝马迹显现：截至12月4日的四个交易日，白银ETF资金净流入规模创 下7月以来单周最高。 这类资金主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented surge in silver prices, which have doubled since the beginning of the year, is reshaping investment logic in the precious metals market, with silver now being compared to gold [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strong performance of silver prices is primarily driven by structural changes in the supply-demand balance, with industrial demand, particularly from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and computer chips, seeing significant growth [5]. - The global silver market is expected to experience a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with a projected shortfall of approximately 11.7 million ounces in 2025, marking one of the largest supply-demand imbalances in recent years [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical changes, including the U.S. government's designation of silver as a strategic commodity, have heightened market tensions and led to domestic hoarding behavior among businesses and investors [6]. Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investor enthusiasm is rising, driven by a "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) mentality, leading to increased speculation in silver as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets amid rising inflation expectations [8]. Monetary Policy Concerns - Concerns regarding monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, are contributing to the rise in silver prices, as investors view precious metals as a hedge against potential currency devaluation [9]. Market Predictions - Analysts predict that silver prices may reach the $100 mark by 2026, supported by ongoing supply shortages and increasing industrial demand, although significant price volatility is expected during this period [11].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.341, while spot gold opened at $4277.76 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4216.29 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading around 963.50 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at 968.84 CNY per gram [1] Price Movements - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index decrease by 0.29% to 98.357, while spot gold increased by 1.22% to $4205.38 per ounce. Other precious metals showed mixed results: spot silver rose by 2.84% to $63.54 per ounce, platinum increased by 2.30% to $1693.40 per ounce, and palladium gained 1.08% to $1492.50 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of December 11, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1123.32 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous trading day. COMEX silver inventory is at 14177.51 tons, a decrease of 18.65 tons [2] ETF Holdings - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased to 1050.83 tons, up by 4.01 tons from the previous day. SLV silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 16083.16 tons [2]

分析师认为供需失衡和宽松利率环境让今年白银涨势超过黄金涨势，周四金银比达67倍、逼近2021年低点。周四现货白银价格触及64.28美元/盎司的历史高 位，纽约期银日内涨幅达6.0%，报64.69美元/盎司。 白银"疯狂"涨势仍在继续。 12月11日，工业金属兼避险资产的白银延续了自年初以来价格翻倍的强劲涨势， $白银/美元 (XAGUSD.FX)$ 价格触及64.32美元/盎司的历史高位，纽约期银 日内涨幅达6.0%，报64.69美元/盎司。 根据白银协会发布的2025年世界白银调查报告，全球白银市场将连续第五年出现供应缺口，2025年预计缺口约为1.17亿盎司(约3660吨)，为近年来最大缺口 之一。 矿产供应连年停滞在8.13亿盎司左右，而工业需求却创下历史新高。同时白银在可再生能源、电子产品和绿色技术领域的需求激增，叠加投资者对通胀和货 币波动的担忧，使其成为2025年表现最突出的贵金属之一。 华尔街见闻提及，多位分析师预测白银价格明年有望突破100美元大关，尽管过程中可能出现剧烈波动。Solomon Global的Paul Williams早在10月白银接近50 美元时就预测其将在2026年底前突破1 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨包芳鸣 白银成为今年"领涨先锋"，年内累计涨幅逼近120%，特别是从下半年开始呈现加速上涨态势。 截至12月11日16：20，现货白银价格突破62美元/盎司，盘中最高至62.884美元/盎司，再度刷新历史新 高。与此同时，COMEX白银盘中突破63美元/盎司，一度摸高63.25美元/盎司；上海期货交易所的白银 主力合约价格最高涨至14655元/千克，涨幅超过5%，上述两个品种价格也刷新历史新高。至此，白银 也成为今年顶流投资品之一。 截至北京时间11日19：25左右，现货白银报62.386 美元/盎司。 年度涨幅近120% 最新消息显示，美联储决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%—3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息， 年内累计已下调75基点。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将 "观望" 后再采取进 一步行动，但基本排除加息可能。 白银通常与黄金同向波动，但由于其市场规模更小，对美元的变化更为敏感，波动性也更强。由于白银 的价格远低于黄金，吸引了寻求更低成本避险资产的投资者，同时在工业领域的应用也 ...