Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.69% to 3534.48 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.09% to 4058.55 points. The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a gain of 1.82%, reaching 5294.21 points [1][2]. Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes compared to the previous week were as follows: Industrial metals +1.00%, Precious metals +1.61%, Minor metals +4.45%, Energy metals +3.31%, and New metal materials +0.19% [1][2]. Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were as follows: Copper at 78,410 CNY/ton (-0.15%), Aluminum at 20,510 CNY/ton (-0.80%), Zinc at 22,295 CNY/ton (-0.42%), Lead at 16,820 CNY/ton (-1.67%), Nickel at 120,500 CNY/ton (-0.57%), and Tin at 264,540 CNY/ton (-0.41%) [3]. - On the London Metal Exchange, the prices were: Copper at 9,795 USD/ton (+1.39%), Aluminum at 2,638 USD/ton (+1.34%), Zinc at 2,824 USD/ton (+3.12%), Lead at 2,012 USD/ton (-0.49%), Nickel at 15,245 USD/ton (+0.31%), and Tin at 33,355 USD/ton (-0.87%) [3]. - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 777.02 CNY/gram (+0.50%) and 9,273 CNY/kilogram (+2.84%), respectively [3]. - The prices for lithium carbonate and other lithium products showed significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 66,000 CNY/ton (+3.94%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 65,000 CNY/ton (+4.00%) [3]. Policy Impact - The implementation of the revised Mineral Resources Law in China has led to stricter management and approval requirements for mining operations, affecting lithium mining activities. Local authorities have mandated that certain lithium mines complete resource verification reports by September 30 [4][5]. - The uncertainty in domestic lithium mining policies has caused supply-side disruptions, contributing to a significant rebound in lithium carbonate prices [5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Rongjie Co., due to the rebound in lithium prices [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth plan for key industries, including nonferrous metals, which will focus on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated capacity. Companies like China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Yunnan Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals are highlighted for potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is significantly boosted by policy support, with the "Work Plan" expected to expand demand and optimize supply, enhancing industry confidence [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to promote structural adjustments in key industries, optimize supply, eliminate outdated capacity, and implement high-quality development plans for copper and aluminum industries to stabilize growth and promote transformation [1] - In the strategic metals sector, prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have rebounded from a low point, while black tungsten concentrate prices have reached a historical high, indicating potential valuation reconstruction opportunities amid global supply chain autonomy pursuits [1] Group 2 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and includes listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of precious and industrial metals, reflecting the overall performance of the nonferrous metals industry [1] - The index exhibits significant cyclical characteristics, providing investors with an effective tool to measure the development status of the nonferrous metals industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) and Guotai CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that a stable growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry is about to be introduced, which is expected to accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure [6][7] - The report highlights that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to implement high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on both supply and demand to promote consumption upgrades and cultivate new consumption markets [6] - The report suggests that the implementation of these policies is likely to improve the supply-side capacity structure, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand interactions [6] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Index Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the non-ferrous metals index closed at 5730.54 points, up 2.0% month-on-month [10] - The precious metals index rose 1.6%, while the industrial metals index increased by 1.0% [10] Precious Metals - Gold - The report notes that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term [6] - As of July 18, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.44% to $3355.5 per ounce, while global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year [6] Industrial Metals - Copper - As of July 18, LME copper futures rose 1.4% to $9794.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 143,300 tons, a decrease of 400 tons [6] - The report anticipates that copper prices will benefit from macroeconomic and fundamental resonance, with a medium-term upward trend expected [6] Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of July 18, LME aluminum futures increased by 1.4% to $2638 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons [6] - The report expects aluminum prices to rise further due to a strong demand-supply imbalance [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Aluminum [7][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, and 中国宏桥 [7][8]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in metal prices, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and supporting economic resilience. It highlights the long-term bullish outlook for gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about global monetary credit and public debt [1][38]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and inventory reductions, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to ongoing inventory adjustments and macroeconomic sentiment [2][3]. - In the energy metals segment, lithium prices have surged due to supply-side disruptions, and the report anticipates continued strong performance in this area [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes a sustained positive outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic resilience. Recent U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, contributing to this outlook [1][38]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and a reduction in domestic inventories. As of the latest data, copper inventories have decreased to 143,300 tons, down 23,180 tons year-on-year [2]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile, with ongoing adjustments in inventory levels and production capacity [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a significant increase in lithium prices, with carbonate prices rising by 8.5% to 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions have been a key driver of this price increase [3]. - **Silicon Metal**: The report highlights a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics for silicon metal, with increased demand from downstream industries [3]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, and 紫金矿业 for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights a strengthening expectation against "involution" in the industry, with a focus on the upward trend of bottom metal prices [3]. - The report notes that the precious metals sector is expected to see continued upward price momentum due to central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [4][21]. - Industrial metals are projected to have limited downside due to supply constraints and stable demand, particularly in the context of ongoing investments in infrastructure and appliances [4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.04%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.09% [4][5]. - The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 0.73 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.82% [4][5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 22.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 19.47 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and energy metals showing increases of 1.71%, 0.03%, and 3.31% respectively [4][9]. - Lithium prices increased by 5.49% for spodumene and 3.94% for battery-grade lithium carbonate, indicating strong demand in the battery sector [4][14]. - The report notes that gold prices have been influenced by U.S. fiscal policies and central bank purchasing trends, with a long-term upward price trajectory expected [4][21]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [4][18]. - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][18]. - In the aluminum sector, companies such as Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao are recommended due to their stable performance and dividend yields [4][18]. Inventory and Supply Analysis - Copper inventories showed a slight decrease in domestic social inventory, while exchange inventories increased, indicating mixed supply dynamics [4][32]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with production capacity constraints expected to support long-term price increases [4][48]. - Steel production has decreased due to reduced electric furnace output, while demand remains stable, suggesting a balanced supply-demand scenario [4][72].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rebound driven by multiple favorable factors, indicating significant wealth opportunities and challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share non-ferrous metal index reached a peak of 5324 points, reflecting a 1.99% increase, successfully breaking a two-day downward trend [1] - Global copper inventory is critically low at 91,000 tons, sufficient for only three days of consumption, exacerbated by a 30% reduction in copper production due to a miners' strike in Peru [2] - The aluminum market is also experiencing high demand, with social inventory dropping by 70,000 tons in one week, and 30% of small aluminum plants being eliminated due to policy restrictions [2] Group 2: Policy Support - Central government policies are targeting price competition, with measures such as power restrictions on aluminum plants and preferential mining quotas for leading companies, effectively consolidating market positions [3] Group 3: Capital Inflow and Company Performance - Major funds are actively investing in leading companies, with significant purchases in Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth, indicating strong institutional interest [4] - Precious metals are performing well, with Shandong Gold seeing a five-day volume increase and silver futures reaching a three-year high, driven by a 30% price surge this year [4] Group 4: Industry Leaders and Competitive Advantages - Leading companies like Zijin Mining and Yunnan Aluminum are benefiting from high resource self-sufficiency and cost advantages, while Jiangxi Copper is leveraging processing fee mechanisms to enhance profitability [5] - The lithium sector is thriving, with Ganfeng Lithium securing long-term contracts with Tesla, reflecting robust demand in the new energy supply chain [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The non-ferrous metal sector is witnessing a supply-demand imbalance, igniting interest and competition within the market [6] Group 6: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautiously optimistic, focusing on companies with over 70% resource self-sufficiency and considering options like silver LOF and non-ferrous ETFs for lower risk exposure [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 5.2 CNY, based on a current price of 4.49 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a strong player in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with high profitability elasticity and increased shareholder returns expected to lead to a revaluation of its value [2]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a restructuring phase to a growth phase, significantly improving its operational status and financial health [1][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, has developed a synergistic operating model focusing on aluminum and deep processing, supported by coal mining, thermal power generation, and carbon products [1]. - The current production capacity includes 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum, 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, 150,000 tons of carbon products, and 90,000 kW of electricity [1]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a significant recovery post-restructuring, with a projected net profit of 1.83 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159.7% [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 227.61 billion CNY in 2024 to 235.40 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.42% [5]. Industry Analysis - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling at approximately 45 million tons [3]. - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, transportation, and renewable energy, with significant growth expected from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, benefiting from cost reductions in alumina and electricity, which are expected to improve profit margins in 2025 [2][4]. - The average electricity price in the Guangyuan region is projected to decrease significantly in 2025, further enhancing profitability [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated a robust employee stock ownership plan, aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion CNY, and has committed to distributing at least 60% of its distributable profits as dividends over the next three years [2][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a mixed performance, with the small metals sector rising by 6.58% and the industrial metals sector declining by 3.49% in the past two weeks [3][12] - The rare earth and magnetic materials sector is experiencing a significant profit increase, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and price recovery [5][65] - Lithium prices continue to decline due to oversupply, but leading companies are expected to recover as high-cost production is phased out [66] Industry Performance Overview - As of July 17, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has decreased by 0.87% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.55 percentage points [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has increased by 20.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.55 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [12] - The small metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.87%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 16.89% [18] Price Trends - As of July 17, 2025, LME copper is priced at $9,678 per ton, LME aluminum at $2,589 per ton, and LME nickel at $15,065 per ton [24] - The rare earth price index has risen to 192.03, with significant increases in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [42][65] - Lithium carbonate prices are stabilizing, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 64,800 yuan per ton [40][66] Company Performance Highlights - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% for the first half of 2025 [56] - Ningbo Yunsheng anticipates a net profit increase of 133.55% to 250.33% for the same period [57] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected at 19.178 billion yuan, with a net profit of 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.41% year-on-year [52][67]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

周期股，"王者归来"。 今天上午， 周期股全面走强，有色金属板块领涨，化工、煤炭、油气、钢铁等板块均上涨。 从个股表现看，万华化学、洛阳钼业、紫金矿业、 北 方稀土等龙头股上涨。其中， 北方稀 土（600111）上涨8.83%，盘中一度涨停，成交额为117亿元，居A股第一，也是上午A股唯 一成交额过百亿元的个股。 白酒、银行、保险等权重板块反弹。 AI方面，受OpenAI推出ChatGPT智能体影响， AI应用 端上午走势较强。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.34%，深证成指上涨0.3%，创业板指上涨0.26%。 对于稀土板块，中金公司表示，在供应边际增量有限的背景下，出口及国内需求预期改善将 推动国内稀土价格整体回升。全球稀土供应格局正在经历重塑，国内稀土和磁材企业，以及 海外稀土产业链相关公司有望迎来重估。 中信证券表示，近期稀土价格呈现稳定上涨趋势，主要受到供需格局改善和政策支持的推 动。在新能源、新材料等下游产业持续扩张的背景下，稀土需求将持续增长。供给端产能释 放有限，进一步支撑稀土价格走强。同时，国家相关政策不断出台，为稀土行业发展提供良 好环境。建议投资者关注具备资源和技术优势的龙头企业。 周期 ...