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对二甲苯:成本支撑偏强PTA:聚酯计划减产,关注兑现力度MEG:估值下方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 02:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to be unilaterally strong. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials, and hedging strategies such as going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on SC and short on PX. Although PX supply is currently loose and downstream PTA polyester's future operation may decline, the rising oil price provides cost support, and the unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend [7]. - PTA has strong cost support. The strategy of going long on SC and short on PTA is recommended. The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. Pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the impact of polyester's planned production cut needs to be observed. PTA is expected to remain in a tight - balance state [7]. - MEG is expected to have a short - term unilateral strong rebound, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the spring maintenance plan of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7282, with a decline of 26 and a decline rate of 0.36%. The PX5 - 9 spread was 58, down 12 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5140, with a decline of 2 and a decline rate of 0.04%. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 52, up 4 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3815, with a decline of 65 and a decline rate of 1.68%. The MEG5 - 9 spread was - 118, down 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6506, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 58, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 446.7, with an increase of 9.2 and an increase rate of 2.10%. The SC2 - 3 spread was - 1.1, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The previous day's price of PX CFR China was 898.67 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's price of PTA in East China was 5060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's price of MEG spot was 3682 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The previous day's price of naphtha MOPJ was 561.25 dollars/ton, up 3.25 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Brent Oil**: The previous day's price of Dated Brent was 68.56 dollars/barrel, up 3.15 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - **PX**: On January 13, the PX price rose. The estimated price of PX was 899 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from January 12. The Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea prices assessed by Platts on January 13 were 898.67 dollars/ton and 877.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 50 cents/ton. South Korea's S - Oil will shut down its No. 1 xylene production line with an annual output of 800,000 tons for planned maintenance in March [3][5]. - **PTA**: The current PTA operation rate is maintained at 78%. There is an overhaul plan for Yisheng New Materials' device in January, so the load increase space is limited. Polyester filament factories discussed production cuts, with a planned reduction of 15% in FDY production, and the impact on the overall polyester load depends on the implementation of the production - cut plan [7]. - **MEG**: The restart time of a 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Henan is to be determined. It was shut down around the end of 2025 to replace the catalyst, with an expected shutdown time of about two weeks [5]. - **Polyester**: On January 13, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by around 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 87% by around 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [6].
燃料油早报-20260114
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 01:47
| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/01/07 | 315.72 | 370.14 | -10.22 | 580.60 | -210.46 | 20.31 | 54.42 | | 2026/01/08 | 311.91 | 370.97 | -11.52 | 590.00 | -219.03 | 19.45 | 59.06 | | 2026/01/09 | 325.44 | 384.81 | -11.82 | 612.35 | -227.54 | 21.06 | 59.37 ...
《能源化工》日报-20260114
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 01:37
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views LLDPE and PP - PE: HD - LL spread narrows, some full - density plants switch to LLDPE production. There is short - term positive feedback in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The marginal supply of LLDPE is expected to increase, and demand enters the seasonal off - peak season [1]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The balance of PP has improved significantly, and the weighted profit has recovered compared with the previous period [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures rose in the morning and then fell back. The spot was purchased as needed. The basis weakened rapidly. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance plans [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated weakly. The supply is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation and may fluctuate weakly without new stimuli [7]. Natural Rubber - The supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yield tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. The demand has a certain boost, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to follow the futures to decline and continue to be weak in the short term [12]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has declined, and the supply is high while the demand has slightly decreased. The inventory needs to be reduced, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The price fluctuated, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term price is affected by export policies, and short positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market is weak. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement. The price is expected to be stable and slightly weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the price follows the crude oil to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [14]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the downstream resistance is strong. The price increase space is limited, and the strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee when it is high [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be low - bought in the medium term [15]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in January, and the price follows the raw materials. The strategy is to short - term fluctuate in the range of 5,000 - 5,300 and low - buy in the medium term [15]. - MEG: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure, and the strategy is to pay attention to the pressure at 4,000 for EG2605 [15]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee should be shrunk when it is high [15]. - Polyester Bottle Chip: The supply and demand both decrease, and the price and processing fee follow the cost. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [15]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the upstream and downstream operating rates have changed slightly. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Crude Oil - The oil price rose. The instability in Iran continues, and the potential supply risk supports the short - term strength of the oil price, but the increase is limited due to the weak overall supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices**: The prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have changed to varying degrees. The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LDPE, etc. have also fluctuated [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 6.66%, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 4.69%. The trade - related inventory of PP increased by 15.52% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.52%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have changed. The spot prices in different regions have also fluctuated [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.54%, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The production capacity has recovered, and the daily output has reached a high level [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the futures inventory in the factory warehouse decreased by 1.74% [9]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: The production in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rates of some tire enterprises changed [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The prices of glass in different regions and soda ash in different regions have changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash factory inventory increased [12]. - **Operating Rates**: The soda ash operating rate increased, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased slightly [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms have changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PVC and caustic soda in some regions has increased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the PVC and caustic soda industries have changed slightly [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream products such as pure benzene and styrene have changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene and styrene has changed [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and downstream polyester products have changed [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory situation of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. has changed [15]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain have changed slightly [15]. LPG - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of LPG have increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG have decreased slightly [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG have changed slightly [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, etc. have increased, and the prices of refined oil products have also changed [19]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products have changed [19].
朗坤科技:与中石化合作项目正稳步推进
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-14 00:56
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Langkun Technology and Sinopec Group focuses on establishing a full industrial chain for the collection, pre-treatment, and deep processing of waste oil into biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [1] Group 1: Company Collaboration - On August 15, 2025, a tripartite cooperation signing ceremony was held between China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation Guangzhou Branch, Sinopec Refining Sales Co., Ltd., and Guangzhou Langkun to jointly build the full industrial chain for waste oil [1] - The cooperation project is progressing steadily according to the agreement, with the company actively cooperating with relevant parties to implement various aspects of the collaboration [1] Group 2: Business Environment - The specific details of the cooperation are not disclosed due to confidentiality agreements [1] - The related business is subject to uncertainties influenced by policy changes and macroeconomic factors [1]
【图】2025年1-9月宁夏回族自治区液化石油气产量数据分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2026-01-14 00:38
Core Insights - In September 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 82,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with a growth rate 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the LPG production totaled 647,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, with a growth rate 13.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1] Monthly Production Analysis - September 2025 LPG production was 82,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, and this growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The LPG production in September accounted for 1.8% of the national LPG production of 4,463,000 tons from large-scale enterprises [1] Cumulative Production Analysis - From January to September 2025, the LPG production was 647,000 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, and this decline was 13.6 percentage points lower than the previous year [1] - The cumulative LPG production represented 1.6% of the national total of 39,748,000 tons from large-scale enterprises during the same period [1]
【沥青日报】华东重交沥青高低端价维稳,短期跟随成本端地缘演绎
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 23:20
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:能源研发中心 【1】盘面表现:BU 2603主力合约日内高开后维持震荡,最终收盘价3140,较昨日结算价-0.66%,盘 中最高触及3153,最低3093。按收盘价算近7天累计+3.9%。次月合约2606较昨日结算价-0.25%。近月 跌幅高于远月合约。 【2】现货市场:①山东重交沥青市场价为3080元/吨,环比持平,7天累计+4.4%。山东基差为-60元/ 吨,7天累计+12元/吨。②华东重交沥青市场价为3200元/吨,环比持平。华东基差为+60元/吨,7天累 计-8元/吨。 【3】裂解变化:①BU-Brent录得-144元/吨,7天累计-15元/吨。当日BU主力收盘-0.5%;Brent-0.1% (以下午3点收盘成交价计算)。 随着油价转入因美国和伊朗之间地缘矛盾升级,油价涨幅相对沥青要更强,这也是前期提及多裂解差的 风险点。目前伊朗局势对油价低位反弹情绪较为积极,可止盈裂解差。待油价情绪回落之后,再观望市 场变化。 【4】基本面变化:据隆众现货报价统计,山东地炼参考价在3010-3140元/吨,主营参考价在3220-3240 元/ ...
300元“省力神器”降低作业风险
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 18:48
(来源:工人日报) 本报讯 (记者彭冰 柳姗姗 通讯员胡海峰)"一袋碳酸钠足足有80斤,摇几下手柄就能轻松精准填加; 以前搬这么一袋碳得咬牙撑半天,还生怕受伤。现在这'神器'简直太懂我们一线工人了!"近日,吉林 石化丙烯腈厂外操员工任世君,一边使用新安装的手摇起吊器,一边对着身旁同事连连夸赞。 这个让任世君赞不绝口的"省力神器",是第二丙烯腈联合车间践行"我为员工群众办实事"的暖心之作。 石春海平时是个细心人,他发现车间有一项定期操作——每个班次都需要把碳酸钠缓冲剂添加到溶液罐 中,每袋碳酸钠重80斤,员工弯腰搬运、仰头倾倒,单次作业耗时10余分钟,物料撒漏时有发生,后续 清扫又增加工作强度,而最让车间党支部放心不下的就是员工操作时容易扭伤腰部。 "一线的'累点'就是技改的靶点!"去年10月,石春海主动提出设想:"能不能做个手摇升降器,让大家省 点力?" 这一提议当即得到车间党支部的全力支持。接下来的几天,石春海结合碳酸钠溶液罐布局反复 调整安装高度与角度,最终搭建了手摇起吊器。 "单人即可操控升降平移,吊钩刚好对准进料口,割开袋底就能精准倾倒,一点也撒不出来!"试用这 一"省力神器"后,一线员工都欣喜不已。 ...
经济总量破4000亿元!茂名“十四五”综合实力跃升 迈向5000亿元新目标
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2026-01-13 16:15
Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the significant achievements of Maoming during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing economic growth, urban development, and social progress, positioning Maoming as a leader in the Guangdong province's development strategy [1][7]. Economic Development - Maoming's economic output has surpassed 400 billion yuan, maintaining its leading position in the Guangdong province's western and northern regions [1] - The agricultural output value has exceeded 120 billion yuan, with eight specialty agricultural clusters each surpassing 10 billion yuan [1] - The construction industry is projected to reach nearly 130 billion yuan, while the petrochemical industry remains stable at around 180 billion yuan [1] - Industrial investment and technological transformation are expected to double from 2020 to 2024, with advanced manufacturing accounting for 74% of the industrial output [1] Urban Expansion and Quality Improvement - The urbanization rate has increased by 4.55 percentage points over four years, ranking first in the province [2] - The city area has expanded by 17 square kilometers, with a projected population increase of 110,000, surpassing one million residents [2] - Significant investments in transportation have reached 784 billion yuan, enhancing the city's connectivity and infrastructure [2] Rural-Urban Integration - The income disparity between urban and rural residents has narrowed to 1.46, better than national and provincial averages [3] - The total output value of the "Five Trees and One Fish" industry chain has exceeded 55 billion yuan, creating approximately 600,000 jobs [3] - Rural infrastructure improvements include the construction of 3,049 kilometers of rural roads and a 98.9% sewage treatment rate [3] Reform and Economic Vitality - Over 250 economic reform measures have been implemented, with state-owned enterprise assets increasing from 57.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 208.2 billion yuan by 2025 [4] - The number of new business entities has increased by 67.44% over the past five years, reflecting a robust business environment [5] Social Welfare and Quality of Life - The proportion of fiscal spending on social welfare remains at 84%, exceeding national and provincial averages, with per capita disposable income surpassing 30,000 yuan [5] - New educational resources and healthcare facilities have been introduced, adding over 124,500 quality school places and 1,807 hospital beds [5] Safety and Stability - Crime rates have decreased significantly, with a 30.4% reduction in drug-related cases and a 21.3% decrease in traffic fatalities [6] - The city has successfully managed disaster risks, effectively addressing geological hazards and responding to severe weather events [6]
国企改革成绩单发布
第一财经· 2026-01-13 15:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant progress made in the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, highlighting achievements in structural layout, technological innovation, corporate governance, and regulatory mechanisms, while also acknowledging existing challenges that need to be addressed for future reforms [4][5]. Reform Achievements - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) reported that the reform of SOEs has fundamentally changed their overall appearance and contributed significantly to economic and social development, although issues such as insufficient original innovation capabilities remain [4][5]. - Central enterprises have established 97 original technology sources and led the construction of 23 innovation consortia, promoting collaborative research and development [5][6]. - In the strategic emerging industries sector, central enterprises achieved over 11 trillion yuan in revenue from January to November 2025, with significant investments in biopharmaceuticals and low-altitude economy sectors [5][6]. Strategic Restructuring and Integration - The SASAC has facilitated the restructuring and integration of state-owned enterprises to enhance their core competitiveness, with notable mergers involving assets exceeding 100 billion yuan [6][11]. - New central enterprises have been established, improving resource allocation efficiency, and various regions have initiated strategic reorganizations involving 229 primary enterprises [6][11]. Future Reform Directions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent directives emphasize the need for SOEs to strengthen their core functions and enhance competitiveness, setting a clear direction for the next five years [9][11]. - The SASAC aims to deepen reforms by focusing on problem-solving and improving the effectiveness of reforms, with an emphasis on modern corporate governance and management systems [10][11]. - The recent merger between China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation and China Aviation Oil is highlighted as a significant event in the ongoing restructuring of central enterprises, aimed at optimizing their operational focus and responding to international competition [11].
声音 | 剧锦文:国资新重组体现国家战略引领
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 11:27
新的国资国企重组主要指向四大方面。 内容来源 | 环球时报 日前,经报国务院批准,中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有限公司将实施重组。这是继"十四五"时期6组10家企业实现战略性重组、新组 建设立9家中央企业后,国资国企战略性重组的延续。 改革开放以来,国资国企的重组始终是国有经济改革发展的重要选项,经历了"抓大放小"、国资与非国资融合以及资源整合等一系列战略性调整,其原因 与出发点也各有侧重。国企新重组的主要原因,就是国家战略的引导与推动。 从改革开放初期至今,我国在国资国企领域的国家战略日益明晰,对国有经济提出的要求也越发明确:国有经济已成为实现国家战略的重要工具,其重大 运营决策必须服务于国家战略全局。过去的国企重组更侧重于解决微观层面的企业、行业问题;而当前的重组,则更加注重国家战略的引领与推动,着眼 于长远利益与宏观成效,以战略性、专业化重组整合实现国有经济布局优化和结构调整。正因如此,新的国资国企重组主要指向四大方面。 一是保障国民经济的安全运行。随着我国经济规模的快速扩张与影响力的不断提升,外部环境的复杂性和不确定性显著增加。在此背景下,从"十三 五""十四五"到"十五五",国家已深刻 ...