Group 1 - Tmall's 618 event saw a significant increase in user scale and activity, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% year-on-year growth [1] - High-value consumer group 88VIP members exceeded 50 million, marking a new high, while brand membership increased by 15%, with member average spending 1.93 times the overall industry average [1] - The home appliance and 3C digital sectors experienced explosive growth, with total sales for participating categories up 116% compared to last year's Double 11, and over 9,200 brands doubling their sales [1] Group 2 - Quality live streaming has become a new industry standard, with 81 live streaming rooms achieving over 100 million yuan in sales, and the number of live streaming rooms exceeding 10 million yuan increased by 21% year-on-year [2] - Emerging sectors such as trendy toys, jewelry, pets, and beverages are identified as high-growth trends during this year's Tmall 618 [3] - The event focused on quality improvement and efficiency, simplifying the shopping experience while supporting quality and original brands through various resources [3]

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is initiating a two-year restructuring plan starting July 1, focusing on core brands and divesting non-core businesses, including a global layoff of 7,000 employees, approximately 15% of non-manufacturing positions [1][3][4] Restructuring Plan - The restructuring plan is P&G's largest adjustment in nearly a decade, aimed at addressing uncertainties in consumer behavior, increased competition, geopolitical unpredictability, and rapid technological changes [1][3] - Specific actions include exiting certain markets, divesting specific product categories and brands, and enhancing operational efficiency through digitalization and automation [3][4] - The plan will be detailed in the fiscal year 2025 meeting scheduled for July 2025 [1] Financial Performance - P&G's sales for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 were $19.776 billion, a 2% year-over-year decline, with net profit remaining stable at approximately $3.77 billion [3][4] - The fabric and home care segment contributes the most to overall sales at 36%, followed by the baby and family care segment at 24% [1][7] Brand Focus - SK-II, a key brand in P&G's beauty segment, has seen sales declines in recent fiscal years, but recent price increases have led to a return to growth in the second and third quarters of fiscal year 2025 [4][5] - The beauty segment has faced challenges, with skincare sales declining over 20% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 [4][5] Market Positioning - P&G's restructuring is seen as a response to the need for efficiency and focus on core brands amid unpredictable external conditions [2][3] - The company is also facing competition from private label products and must adapt to the evolving digital landscape in China, where e-commerce sales grew by 9% in fiscal year 2024 [10][12] Leadership Changes - Recent leadership changes include the resignation of Colin Walsh, CEO of P&G's professional beauty division, and the appointment of new executives to address challenges in the Asia-Pacific region [6][7] - The restructuring may lead to further adjustments in the organizational structure, although specific details have not been disclosed [7] E-commerce Strategy - P&G is enhancing its e-commerce capabilities, particularly in China, where it aims to leverage local market dynamics and improve its digital presence [10][13] - The company is investing in platforms like Douyin to adapt its marketing strategies to the changing e-commerce landscape [13]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic beauty industry is expected to experience a new wave of mergers and acquisitions, highlighted by the acquisition of skincare brand Baizhicui by local beauty group Juyi Group, which aims to complement its existing beauty business [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Juyi Group has signed an acquisition agreement with Baizhicui, although the specific price has not been disclosed [1]. - Baizhicui, founded in 2012 by dermatologist Li Yuanhong, has focused on product promotion through professional channels such as public hospitals [2]. - Post-acquisition, Li Yuanhong will continue as Chief Product Officer at Baizhicui, overseeing the entire product development process [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic beauty industry is experiencing "extreme polarization," with leading companies establishing competitive advantages while smaller brands face significant survival pressures [1][5]. - The acquisition strategy is seen as a viable path for leading companies, with a trend of "big fish eating small fish" expected to continue [5]. Group 3: Business Growth and Financials - Juyi Group's revenue reached 2.61 billion yuan in 2023, projected to grow to 3.5 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 36% year-on-year increase [6]. - The main brand, Judo, reportedly generated over 2 billion yuan in revenue, positioning it as a leading domestic color cosmetics brand [6]. - The acquisition of Baizhicui is anticipated to enhance Juyi's revenue, potentially exceeding 4 billion yuan this year [7]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The acquisition aligns with Juyi Group's multi-brand strategy, expanding its presence in the color cosmetics, skincare, and hair care sectors [4]. - Industry experts suggest that the merger will provide Baizhicui with more resources and support to deepen its focus on sensitive skin products, while Juyi fills a gap in its skincare offerings [7]. - The ongoing trend of acquisitions and expansions is viewed as a strategic move to enhance market valuation and prepare for potential public listings in the future [7].

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 6 月 19 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 6 月 19 日（星期四）2 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025 年第四次议息会 议。 点评： 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布了 2025 年的第四份利率决议。其中显示，有投 票权的 12 位 FOMC 委员全票通过，美联储决定将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25% —4.50%不变，这是美联储自去年 9 月开启降息周期以来再次暂停降息，符合市 场预期。 本次声明与 5 月相比，有两点不同：一是删掉了有关"经济前景的不确定性增加" 的说法，改成"不确定性已减弱但仍高"；二删掉了有关"失业和通胀均上升的 风险增加"的说法，重申"净出口波动影响数据但经济继续稳健扩张。" 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 5 页 晨会纪要 在点阵图中，以每次降息 25 个基点计算，与今年 3 月相比，19 位 FOMC 委 ...

Core Viewpoint - Coty Group is actively seeking buyers or considering a split sale of its high-end and mass beauty divisions, with negotiations still in early stages. The potential transaction may take the form of a split rather than a complete sale, with strategic partnerships or mergers being more likely than traditional acquisitions [4]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Coty Group reported net revenue of $1.2991 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.24%, and a loss of $402 million. For the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, net revenue was $4.6405 billion, down 2.4%, with a loss of $280.9 million [5]. - The financial struggles indicate that the news of potential sales is not unfounded, as many international beauty brands are facing cash flow pressures, including Coty [5]. Brand Portfolio and Risks - Coty Group's high-end beauty division includes brands like Burberry, while its mass beauty division includes Covergirl, Max Factor, and Rimmel. The company faces risks of losing licensing rights for several brands, such as Miu Miu, which will end its contract with Coty in 2024 [4][6]. - The high-end beauty division generates over 60% of Coty's revenue, with Gucci being a significant contributor. However, the licensing agreement for Gucci is set to expire in 2028, and the parent company, Kering, has indicated intentions to reclaim the brand [6]. Strategic Adjustments - Experts suggest that losing Gucci will impact Coty's brand structure and performance in the high-end market. However, Coty is expected to make strategic adjustments to seek more competitive and promising brands to maintain its market position [7]. - Coty is also attempting to mitigate risks by launching its own fragrance brand, Infiniment Coty Paris, which is seen as a significant initiative to create a new era in fragrances and scents [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent debate in the medical beauty industry regarding "recombinant collagen" has led to significant stock price fluctuations for leading companies, particularly Huaxi Biological and Juzhi Biological, with Huaxi denying any "business war" motives behind its actions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Company Performance - From May 24 to June 18, Huaxi Biological's stock price increased by 23.65%, while Juzhi Biological's stock price fell by over 31% during the same period [1]. - As of June 18, Juzhi Biological's market capitalization was approximately 514 billion RMB, while Huaxi Biological's market capitalization was 245 billion RMB, less than half of Juzhi's [1]. Group 2: Opposition to "Name Games" - Huaxi Biological firmly opposes the "name game" in ingredient labeling, arguing that the capital market's concept switching has led to misunderstandings about hyaluronic acid and recombinant collagen, affecting the business environment and causing resource misallocation [2][3]. - The company emphasizes that recombinant collagen is only a small part of collagen research and that the leading edge of protein research remains with life science institutions and pharmaceutical companies [3]. Group 3: Industry Standards and Scientific Communication - Huaxi Biological highlights that no medical beauty Class III device certificates based on recombinant collagen have been approved internationally, indicating that this field requires more time for practical observation [3]. - The company plans to enhance professional communication with the capital market, noting that many analysts lack a biological background and often misinterpret the relationship between hyaluronic acid and collagen [4]. Group 4: Denial of Business War Claims - Huaxi Biological denies rumors that its recent actions are motivated by a "business war" due to pressure on its hyaluronic acid business and competition losses in recombinant collagen [5][6]. - The company asserts that its business has not been under pressure as claimed, with hyaluronic acid business growing over 10% annually and medical-grade hyaluronic acid growing over 20% [6]. Group 5: Consumer Trust and Market Integrity - Huaxi Biological argues that consumer trust in domestic brands should not be built on the misuse of academic concepts and misleading marketing practices, which could distort the business ecosystem and lead to resource misallocation [7]. - The company calls for industry-wide participation in product testing and standard discussions to enhance understanding and eliminate industry bubbles and misconceptions [7]. Group 6: Timeline of Events - The controversy began in mid-May when Huaxi Biological questioned several brokerage reports that promoted recombinant collagen and criticized hyaluronic acid [8]. - On May 24, beauty blogger "Big Mouth Doctor" Hao Yu publicly questioned the collagen content in Juzhi Biological's products, leading to further disputes [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Coty is exploring the possibility of splitting and selling its high-end and mass beauty divisions, which could lead to a merger and acquisition scale of hundreds of billions to trillions of yuan, potentially reshaping the global beauty industry [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 1904 in Paris, Coty has developed a strong brand portfolio, including luxury brands like GUCCI and Burberry, and has grown to be one of the top ten beauty companies globally [2][4]. - Coty operates over 50 fragrance and beauty brands, divided into high-end and mass segments, with high-end beauty generating 277 billion yuan and mass beauty generating 162 billion yuan in revenue for the fiscal year 2024 [1][4]. Financial Performance - Coty's revenue for fiscal year 2024 was 439 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous year, but the company has faced significant fluctuations in performance [9]. - The company reported a net revenue decline of 2% to 333.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, with a net loss of 22.2 billion yuan [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The global beauty industry is undergoing significant challenges, including market growth slowdown and increased competition from emerging DTC brands, particularly affecting mass beauty brands [4][12]. - Coty is facing difficulties in finding suitable buyers for its mass beauty division, especially in Asia, due to economic slowdowns and trade tensions with the U.S. [5][4]. Strategic Moves - Coty is in discussions with Interparfums regarding the sale of its high-end beauty business, particularly brands like Burberry and Hugo Boss, which have shown strong growth [4][10]. - The company has initiated a transformation plan aimed at streamlining operations and focusing on key business innovations, with an expected savings of nearly 36 billion yuan between fiscal years 2025 and 2027 [12]. Industry Trends - The beauty industry is witnessing a shift towards high-end and luxury products, with major players like Shiseido and Unilever restructuring to enhance operational efficiency [12][14]. - Coty’s historical capital-driven development and frequent ownership changes have influenced its current strategy to seek a sale [11][12].

Core Insights - The endorsement market is shifting towards older celebrities, indicating a response to age-related consumer concerns and changing brand strategies [3][5][12] - Brands are increasingly adopting a "listening" approach to engage consumers, moving beyond traditional endorsement metrics to foster emotional connections [7][10] - The rise of the "new silver economy" highlights the growing purchasing power of older consumers, prompting brands to target this demographic more aggressively [12][15] Group 1: Endorsement Trends - There is a notable increase in endorsements from older celebrities, such as Wu Yanzu and 86-year-old Wu Yanzhi, who are now sought after by major brands like Prada and L'Oreal [5][13] - The endorsement strategies are diversifying, with brands now considering emotional resonance and consumer engagement over mere follower counts [7][9] - The trend of using homophonic puns in endorsements is prevalent among younger celebrities, but older celebrities are generating more impactful results [9][10] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - The purchasing power of older consumers is becoming more significant, with brands like SK-II and Dior targeting this demographic as they have the financial means to buy luxury products [10][12] - The "new silver economy" is gaining attention, with a significant increase in the population over 60 years old, leading to a shift in marketing strategies [12][15] - Brands are adapting to the changing consumer landscape, as younger generations are increasingly budget-conscious, while older consumers are willing to spend on premium products [12][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The endorsement market is experiencing competition from short drama and sports circles, which are capturing significant market share and altering traditional endorsement dynamics [16][20] - The popularity of sports stars is on the rise, with athletes like Fan Zhendong gaining more endorsements, indicating a long-term strategy from brands [20][22] - The overall trend suggests a move away from the reliance on traditional celebrity endorsements towards more creative and diverse marketing strategies [22]

Core Insights - The rise of the "New Consumption F4" (Pop Mart, Nayuki, Perfect Diary, Helen's) is driven by a combination of generational shifts, capital narratives, and consumption transformations, rather than just performance metrics [1] Group 1: Generational Consumption Revolution - The essence of the "F4" rise is the takeover of consumption power by Generation Z, focusing on emotional needs rather than just product functionality [2] - Pop Mart has turned blind boxes into "spiritual lottery," appealing to the loneliness economy with annual sales of millions [2] - Nayuki's tea shops have become new social hubs for urban youth, replacing Starbucks in some areas [2] - Over 60% of revenue from these brands comes from users under 30, with private domain repurchase rates exceeding the industry average by 20% [2] Group 2: Traffic Creation Movement - The "F4" brands have shifted from traditional advertising to a self-circulating system of content, traffic, and conversion [3] - Perfect Diary utilized social media strategies to achieve over 100 million GMV in just two years [3] - Nayuki's viral marketing through popular IPs has led to significant foot traffic in stores [3] - The traffic creation efficiency of "F4" is 3-5 times that of traditional brands, with customer lifetime value (LTV) 40% higher than the industry average [3] Group 3: Capital Narrative Reconstruction - The capital market's valuation logic has shifted from profit worship to GMV mythology, with a focus on sales revenue rather than profits [4] - Nayuki was valued at 20 billion despite a 200 million loss at IPO, highlighting the market's focus on expansion potential [4] - Perfect Diary's parent company is valued at 10 billion based on its 130 million member data, indicating future monetization potential [4] - The average oversubscription for "F4" IPOs is over four times, with institutional investors making up 70% of the funding [4] Group 4: Underlying Challenges and Reflections - The "F4" faces significant challenges, including rising marketing costs and supply chain vulnerabilities [5] - Perfect Diary's marketing expenses have exceeded 60% for five consecutive years, leading to a revenue without profit dilemma [5] - Nayuki's profit margins have been pressured by fluctuating raw material costs [5] - The aging of Pop Mart's IPs has resulted in increased inventory turnover days, indicating consumer fatigue [5] Group 5: Transition from "Internet Celebrity" to Sustainable Growth - The success of the "F4" reflects a phase in China's consumption upgrade, emphasizing the importance of understanding the emotional needs of younger consumers [6] - The challenge remains for these brands to evolve from "hit-making machines" to "value-driven brands" [6] - Building a robust product capability, supply chain, and user engagement is essential to avoid becoming a casualty of capital market fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - ECM (Extra Cellular Matrix) has been identified as a significant marker of aging, leading to increased focus and competition among beauty brands in anti-aging research and product development [1][3][10]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The recognition of ECM as an aging marker has prompted major beauty companies to rapidly advance their research and product offerings related to ECM [6][9]. - Companies like Huaxi and Marubi are expanding their research to include all major ECM proteins, indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive understanding of skin aging [6][9]. - The launch of innovative products, such as Huaxi's "润百颜·玻玻" and Shiseido's MicroClick Concentrate, highlights the industry's commitment to integrating ECM research into practical applications [6][9][10]. Group 2: Key Research Findings - ECM plays a crucial role in maintaining mitochondrial homeostasis, cellular aging, and stem cell depletion, making it a pivotal focus in anti-aging research [3][10]. - The dynamic network of ECM, composed of hyaluronic acid, collagen, and elastin, is essential for skin elasticity and vitality, with its degradation being a primary mechanism of skin aging [10][14][19]. - Research indicates that a healthy ECM can rejuvenate aging skin, restoring its appearance and function [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major beauty brands are leveraging their existing research on key ingredients like hyaluronic acid and collagen to enhance their ECM-focused anti-aging strategies [24][26]. - The integration of ECM research is seen as a way to unify various scientific advancements within the beauty industry, creating a more holistic approach to skin aging [24][25]. - The collaboration between medical aesthetics and beauty sectors is expected to accelerate the development of innovative anti-aging solutions based on ECM [26][27]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The potential applications of ECM research extend beyond facial care, with implications for hair follicle regeneration and other areas of dermatology [22][27]. - The beauty industry is positioned to explore new avenues in regenerative medicine and tissue engineering, utilizing ECM's properties to enhance skincare products [27][28]. - ECM is viewed as a "new gold mine" for the beauty industry, offering significant opportunities for innovation and market growth [27][28].