集中开工热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 3 期） 本报告导读： 消费与科技领域政策协同加码，基建和房建建设进度较快，生产偏强。 投资要点： | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-23219820 S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国：消费者信心持续修复 2026.01.11 开年经济温和回暖 2026.01.11 元旦"微度假"热度高 2026.01.04 地缘风险再起，国际油价或迎剧烈波动 2026.01.04 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, China's exports continued high - growth, imports rebounded significantly, and the trade surplus expanded. The Fed's January rate - cut probability decreased, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend. The central bank adjusted the structural monetary policy tool rate and commercial real - estate credit policies, aiming to improve capital activation and support the real economy [8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly data from 2023 to 2025 are presented, showing the performance of different industries, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, and services. The contribution rates and pulling effects of the three industries on GDP are also provided [13][18]. 3.2 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Sector**: The growth rate, added - value of major industries, and production of key products are analyzed. The profit situation of industrial enterprises shows mixed results, with some industries growing and some declining. The inventory of industrial enterprises is at a relatively high level, and enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory [28][43][53]. - **Price Index**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased year - on - year, and the industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased year - on - year but the decline narrowed. The prices of different categories in CPI and PPI showed different trends [60][68]. 3.3 Real Estate Market - In January - November 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. The prices of new and second - hand residential properties in major cities also showed different degrees of decline [122][126][130]. 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total import and export volume reached a record high. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. The export of key products and the import of key commodities are presented in detailed tables [93][100][101]. 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January - November 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment also declined. Investment in different industries showed different trends, with the second - industry investment growing and the third - industry investment declining [114]. 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales is analyzed, and the year - on - year changes in retail sales of different industries above the quota are presented [158][165]. 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers by different means, the subway passenger flow in major cities, and the freight rates of shipping routes are analyzed [168][173][179]. 3.8 Banking and Currency - The new social financing scale, social financing scale stock, new RMB loans, and money liquidity are analyzed. The central bank emphasizes reasonable interest - rate control to promote the decline of the real - economy financing cost [183][194][200]. 3.9 Bond Market - The issuance of interest - bearing bonds and the yields of long - and short - term treasury bonds are analyzed [213][216]. 3.10 Foreign Exchange and Gold - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index are presented. China's gold reserves increased, and the foreign exchange reserves reached a new high [220][223]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - The central and local general public budget revenues and expenditures are analyzed, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate and new urban employment are presented [232][236][242]. 3.12 Business Climate Survey - The global and Chinese manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI are analyzed. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [245][248][256]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - The US real GDP growth rate, employment situation, treasury bond yields, retail sales, and the Fed's asset structure and federal funds rate are analyzed [263][266][274].

Market Regulation and Investor Sentiment - Recent regulatory measures have led to a "cooling" in both commodity and stock markets, which may stabilize investor expectations despite initial concerns about increased volatility[3]. - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 index has diverged from historical volatility, indicating that investors were already pricing in higher future volatility before the regulatory actions[12]. Historical Context of Market Cooling - Historical instances of regulatory tightening do not consistently correlate with market peaks; for example, after regulatory actions in 2015, market tops appeared with a one-month lag[3]. - The tightening of regulations has often occurred during rapid market uptrends, yet subsequent market recoveries have been observed, as seen in 2019 and 2020[3]. Theme Investment Analysis - The current theme investment phase has not yet reached a dominant status, with only 48.43% of theme indices outperforming the Wind All A index, below the 50% threshold[5]. - The number of rising themes has increased to 54%, surpassing levels seen in Q1 2023, indicating a growing interest in specific sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications[5]. Types of Theme Investments - Theme investments can be categorized into four types: policy-driven, industry-driven, event-driven, and new themes, each influenced by different factors such as performance realization and trading heat[4]. - For policy and industry-driven themes, the realization of performance is crucial for determining the end of the theme, while trading heat and regulatory tightening have a more significant impact on new and event-driven themes[6]. Future Outlook - The market environment remains conducive for industry-driven themes, with a focus on potential fundamental changes in the medium to long term[6]. - Key sectors for investment include AI applications, industrial resources, and consumer recovery channels, with a particular emphasis on sectors like copper, aluminum, and lithium[6].

转 载请 注明出处：公众号 lixunlei0722 PPI是生产者物价指数（Producer Price Index）的简称，衡量生产者出售产品和服务时的平均价格变化。根据国家统计局最新公布的数据， 2025年12月份，PPI同比下降1.9%。本轮PPI下降始于2021年，转负则始于次年10月，至2025年末已连续39个月同比下降。 而在此前，2012年3月-2016年8月，PPI 同比负增长持续了54 个月；2019年7月-2021年1月，其中有18个月为负。也就是说，在2012- 2025这14年间，其中有111个月PPI为负，即三分之二的时间处在负值区间里。如果把2010年12月末的PPI指数设定为100，那么，到2025 年12月末，PPI指数仍然为100，即过去15年的涨幅为零。为何我国PPI在相当长时间内呈现疲弱态势？ 过去15年GDP增长250% ——PPI指数15年涨幅为零 研究主要经济数据，会发现一个奇怪的现象，2010年我国GDP总量不到40万亿元，2025年则有望超过140万亿元，即过去15年GDP 增长了两倍半，增加了100万亿元。而广义货币 M2，2010年的余额为72.6万亿元， ...

格隆汇1月18日丨华立股份(603038.SH)发布公告，公司于2026年1月18日收到上海证券交易所下发的 《关于对东莞市华立实业股份有限公司收购事项的问询函》(上证公函【2026】0064号，以下简称"《问 询函》")。 ...

公告显示，1月16日，公司及相关责任人收到湖北证监局出具的《行政处罚事先告知书》。根据《行政 处罚事先告知书》认定的情况，公司披露的《2018年年度报告》存在虚假记载。根据《股票上市规则》 第9.8.1条规定："上市公司出现以下情形之一的，本所对其股票实施其他风险警示：（八）根据中国证 监会行政处罚事先告知书载明的事实，公司披露的年度报告财务指标存在虚假记载，但未触及本规则第 9.5.2条第一款规定情形，前述财务指标包括营业收入、利润总额、净利润、资产负债表中的资产或者负 债科目。"因此，公司股票将被实施其他风险警示，但不触及《股票上市规则》第九章第五节规定的重 大违法强制退市的情形。 （文章来源：北京商报） 北京商报讯1月17日，京山轻机（000821）披露公告称，公司股票将自1月19日起停牌1天，自1月20日起 复牌。公司股票将自1月20日起被实施其他风险警示，股票简称由"京山轻机"变更为"ST京机"；股票代 码不变，仍为"000821"；股票交易日涨跌幅限制为5%。 ...

贸易战从2018年开始，美国通过加征关税试图重塑全球供应链，目标是限制中国制造业扩张并鼓励产能 转移到其他地区。 这种策略基于对全球工业化路径的假设，即新兴市场能快速复制中国模式，通过低成本劳动力吸引投 资。 这一观点源于对历史工业化模式的反思。 实际进程显示，这种转移面临多重障碍。 越南和印度等国虽获得部分订单，但整体规模远低于预期。 越南制造业增长依赖外资，但供应链深度不足，无法形成完整生态。 印度推动本土化生产，但基础设施和政策稳定性问题导致效率低下。 相比之下，中国工业体系已构建起从原材料到高端装备的全链条，贸易战反而加速其内部优化。 全球观察者注意到，美国本土制造业复兴计划进展缓慢，高成本和技能短缺成为主要制约。 2025年数据显示，美国制造业产能利用率仅为78%，远低于中国95%的水平。 美国决策圈逐渐形成共识，贸易战后全球难以出现另一个像中国那样实现大规模工业化的国家。 过去英国和美国工业革命依赖资源和技术垄断，中国则通过改革开放整合全球分工，实现从劳动密集到 技术密集的跃升。 贸易战暴露其他国家复制此路径的难度。 印度人口红利虽大，但教育体系和数字化基础设施滞后，2025年制造业占GDP比重仅 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Tiger Hill District Political Consultative Conference has effectively fulfilled its role by submitting and processing a significant number of proposals, achieving a 100% response and satisfaction rate [1] - A total of 273 proposals were submitted since the last conference, with 254 officially registered and all processed on time [1] - The conference has focused on key government initiatives, hosting four "Intelligent High-tech" consultation meetings and producing 27 high-quality research reports and recommendations related to artificial intelligence and industry integration [1] Group 2 - Several proposals have been transformed into actionable development strategies, such as the first proposal aimed at enhancing innovation and building high-quality industrial parks, which has led to systematic measures in eight areas [2] - The second proposal focuses on accelerating the integration of digital economy and manufacturing, resulting in the promotion of a three-year action plan for "Smart Transformation and Digital Networking" [2] - The third proposal emphasizes the development of productive service industries to deepen the integration of manufacturing and services, leading to the introduction of a 2025 action plan for high-quality development of emerging services [2]

一边是抗议声浪高涨，一边是关税大棒加码。1月17日，丹麦本土与格陵兰岛多地民众走上街头，以游 行示威抗议美国持续觊觎格陵兰岛的言论。可抗议活动刚启幕，美国总统特朗普便火速发文施压，宣布 对8个反对其收购计划的欧洲国家加征10%关税，且数月后税率将提升至25%。这绝非简单的经济报 复，而是用霸权手段逼迫欧洲妥协，妄图以关税胁迫撬开格陵兰岛主权大门的强权操作。 特朗普的关税大棒，早已引发多方反弹。格陵兰岛自治政府总理明确表态，格陵兰人将决定自身未来， 对加入美国毫无兴趣。丹麦首相也强硬回应，强调领土完整是国际法基本原则，拒绝美方无理要求，欧 洲多国更是联合发声支持丹麦，形成抗美共识。 关税施压本身也存在致命短板。被加征关税的欧洲国家，多为对美贸易顺差国，高关税虽会造成短期冲 击，但欧洲可通过内部贸易互补抵消影响。反观美国，欧洲的反制性关税可能波及本国农企与制造业， 特朗普的施压策略实则是双刃剑，难达预期效果。 三、深层影响：美欧裂痕扩大，北极博弈更趋复杂 此举进一步撕裂跨大西洋盟友关系。美国为一己私利，动辄对盟友挥起关税大棒，彻底暴露"霸权优 先"的本质，让欧洲认清美方不可靠，加速推动防务自主与经济脱钩，北约同盟 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rizhao City is implementing measures to promote high-quality and full employment, focusing on enhancing employment capacity and addressing structural employment issues while aligning with local economic development needs [3][4]. Group 1: Employment Goals and Strategies - The overall goal is to achieve an annual urban employment increase of over 26,000 by 2030 and over 30,000 high-skilled workers, maintaining overall employment stability [4]. - By 2035, the aim is to create a high-quality employment environment characterized by sufficient job opportunities, optimized employment structure, and effective job matching [4]. Group 2: Employment Capacity and Structural Issues - The strategy emphasizes the need for collaboration between industry and employment, focusing on upgrading traditional industries and developing new ones to create job opportunities [4]. - Policies will be coordinated to integrate high-quality employment into economic and social development plans, establishing an employment-friendly development model [4]. Group 3: Employment Services and Support - A public employment service system will be enhanced, including the establishment of youth employment and entrepreneurship centers and the promotion of a "creation + loan" service model [5]. - The initiative includes upgrading grassroots employment services and implementing a "smart employment" service model to improve information technology in employment services [5]. Group 4: Employment Monitoring and Support for Key Groups - An employment early warning mechanism will be established, including a labor force survey system and a monitoring framework for high-quality employment statistics [5]. - The focus will be on providing comprehensive employment services for key groups, including college graduates and migrant workers, ensuring their job stability [6].