Group 1: 桃厂 (Peach Factory) - The ongoing speculation about the potential sale of Peach Factory has intensified, with various large companies being considered as potential buyers, but no concrete confirmation has emerged [1] - The pressure on Peach Factory has increased due to a diminishing number of hit productions and complaints from upstream partners regarding long payment terms [2] - The content team at Peach Factory is struggling, leading to concerns that continuing operations without a sale may leave the company in a more vulnerable position [3] Group 2: A厂 (Company A) - The instant retail sector has seen many ups and downs, with Company A struggling to expand nationally despite its strong regional presence [4][5] - Competition in the instant retail space has intensified, with major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com engaging in fierce battles [6] - Company A is facing pressure from investors regarding its valuation, leading to a high-stakes situation with a performance-based agreement that could jeopardize the company's future if not met [7] Group 3: B厂 (Company B) - Company B's founder previously sought acquisition by a larger company but was turned down due to the acquirer's financial constraints and strategic priorities [8] - The competitive landscape in the food delivery sector has evolved significantly, with Company B ultimately accepting an acquisition offer from another player after failed negotiations with the initial target [8] Group 4: E厂 (Company E) - Company E has struggled with a lack of clear strategic direction, leading to confusion and rapid changes in business focus, which has negatively impacted employee morale [11][12] Group 5: H厂 (Company H) - Company H has gained significant attention in the stock market due to its success with short dramas, leading to management focusing on cashing out their shares rather than long-term business strategies [18][19] - The management's actions suggest a lack of confidence in the company's sustainable growth, as they prioritize short-term gains from stock price fluctuations [20]

Core Insights - The instant retail market is experiencing rapid growth, with major platforms like Meituan, Taobao Flash (Ele.me), and JD Delivery reporting record order volumes of 120 million, 80 million, and 25 million respectively [1] - In 2024, the overall daily order volume in the delivery industry is expected to be around 100 million, with Meituan accounting for over 70 million and Taobao Flash (Ele.me) for over 20 million [1] - To adapt to the evolving market, Taobao Flash has launched a 12-month subsidy plan totaling 50 billion yuan, which is nearly 40% of Alibaba Group's annual net profit [1] - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion yuan in the instant retail market over the next three years, while JD Delivery's cumulative investment has exceeded 10 billion yuan [1] - The instant retail market is projected to surpass 2 trillion yuan in scale [1] Market Dynamics - The subsidy strategies are aimed at stimulating both consumer and merchant demand, with a shift from consumer-focused subsidies to include merchant-side incentives [2] - The competitive landscape is characterized by Meituan's defensive strategy leveraging its leading position, Taobao Flash's aggressive market capture through subsidies, and JD Delivery's focus on quality dining and merchant attraction [3] - The surge in order volume indicates a growing consumer demand for instant and personalized services, presenting both opportunities and challenges for platforms [3] Challenges and Recommendations - The high proportion of "bargain hunters" among users poses a risk of inflated order volumes, necessitating platforms to enhance service experience and user loyalty beyond price incentives [3] - Issues such as system crashes, delivery delays, and increased workload for delivery personnel highlight the need for improved technical capabilities and service quality [3] - Recommendations include leveraging technology to enhance fulfillment efficiency, optimizing supply chain management, and balancing consumer rights, merchant profits, and delivery personnel welfare [4]

中国连锁经营协会倡议：规范即时零售市场秩序 联合抵制价格补贴"内卷式"竞争 智通财经7月15日电，中国连锁经营协会7月15日面向全体会员及相关企业发布倡议书。倡议书指出，近期，部分平台发起的即时零售价格补贴大战愈演愈 烈，依赖资本力量的低价竞争不仅扰乱市场公平竞争秩序，更导致实体商家正常经营受挑战、商品品质缩水、服务标准下降、商家利润承压等连锁反应，严 重威胁行业可持续发展根基。为守护市场公平、保障消费权益、推动行业回归价值竞争本源，中国连锁经营协会特向全体会员及相关企业发出如下倡议：规 范低价补贴竞争行为，维护市场公平秩序；坚守经营底线，保障消费权益；构建多元竞争体系，树立长期经营理念；加强主动自律，强化合规管理；践行社 会责任，守护行业生态。 降、服务缩水。不得通过先涨价后补贴、虚构原价等方式误导消费 韶低价为噱头捆绑消费或隐藏附加费用。 主动远离"价格比拼""补贴换流量""赔本赚吆喝"等短视行为 同抵制价格战损害行业信誉的行为；坚守商业本质，强化品牌建设 务，明确商品或服务的合理利润率区间，避免陷入"利润为负-品质 恶性循环。 三、构建多元竞争体系,树立长期经营理念 运用大数据、数字化、Al等先进技术赋 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in subsidies from major players like Meituan, JD, and Taobao has ignited a fierce competition in the instant retail market, characterized by aggressive discounting strategies and promotional offers [1][3][9] - This subsidy wave is not a temporary phenomenon but may become a new industry norm, with Alibaba planning to invest 50 billion yuan over the next year and Meituan committing to a 100 billion yuan investment over three years [3][11] - The competition is driven by the pursuit of a trillion-yuan instant retail market, indicating a shift in the internet industry towards consumer welfare and protection of rights for consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [3][11] Market Dynamics - The instant retail market in China is projected to reach 3 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate exceeding 30% [5] - Taobao's recent subsidy campaign resulted in over 60 million orders in a single day, while JD delivered over 25 million orders, showcasing the explosive growth in order volume [5][9] - The new competitive landscape is characterized by platforms investing their own funds for subsidies, aiming to balance the interests of platforms, merchants, delivery personnel, and consumers [11] Leadership Influence - The return of founders Jack Ma and Liu Qiangdong to the public eye has reinvigorated their companies, with Ma focusing on agriculture and rural products, while Liu has emphasized worker welfare and direct engagement with delivery personnel [7][13] - Their leadership styles reflect a shift from previous market dominance strategies to a more community-oriented approach, aligning with the current societal emphasis on shared prosperity [13][15] Regulatory Environment - The recent competitive dynamics have attracted the attention of regulatory bodies, which are urging platforms to ensure fair competition and prevent chaotic capital expansion [15] - This shift in focus from aggressive market capture to consumer benefit marks a significant transformation in the Chinese internet industry, moving away from a growth-at-all-costs mentality [15]

Core Viewpoint - The renewed competition in the food delivery market has evolved into a battle among Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com for dominance in the trillion-yuan instant retail market, with Alibaba's Taobao Shanguo making significant strides in order volume and market share [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Taobao Shanguo achieved a record of 80 million daily orders within two weeks, approaching Meituan's 150 million orders, indicating a strong competitive push [2][3]. - The competition is characterized by significant financial investments, with all three companies committing substantial resources to capture market share, raising questions about the sustainability of such a strategy [3][4][10]. - JD.com has entered the market aggressively, increasing its order volume from 5 million to 25 million in just two months, posing a direct threat to Meituan and prompting Alibaba's counterattack [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Taobao is undergoing a transformation from a traditional e-commerce platform to a comprehensive consumer platform, aiming to enhance user experience and integrate various business models [7][8]. - The integration of Ele.me into Alibaba's e-commerce division signifies a strategic alignment to bolster instant retail capabilities [8]. - A significant subsidy plan of 50 billion yuan has been launched to support Taobao Shanguo's growth, alongside high-profile endorsements to enhance brand visibility [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The instant retail market is seen as a critical area for Alibaba to secure high-frequency traffic and address flow anxiety, especially in light of competition from platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [9][10]. - The evolving market dynamics will largely depend on the strategies and investments of Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, with Alibaba planning to invest 50 billion yuan, Meituan around 100 billion yuan over three years, and JD.com focusing on high-margin areas [10][11]. - The shift towards instant retail is expected to create a more advanced business model, potentially replacing traditional e-commerce due to its superior shopping experience and faster delivery times [10][11].

Core Insights - The concept of "big consumption" is distinct from "instant retail," focusing on exploring endogenous demand within a market valued at approximately 50 trillion RMB, aiming to "expand the cake" [1][4][6] - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale has reported a significant increase in daily order volume, surpassing 80 million, and a 15% week-on-week growth in active users, indicating a robust consumer engagement [1][2] - The integration of Taobao, Ele.me, and Fliggy under Alibaba's e-commerce group signifies a strategic shift towards becoming a comprehensive consumption platform [4][7] Market Performance - The fresh produce sector saw a 238% increase in orders from small and medium-sized businesses, while the fruit and beverage sectors experienced growth rates of 344% and 532%, respectively [2] - Since the launch of Taobao Flash Sale, over 240,000 new merchants have registered, with a nearly 150% increase in order volume and a 100% rise in average revenue per store in June [2] Employment and Income Impact - The growth in order volume has positively impacted gig workers, with a 78% year-on-year increase in the number of delivery riders and a 120% increase in crowd-sourced riders [2][6] - Active crowd-sourced riders are reportedly earning an average monthly income exceeding 12,500 RMB, reflecting the economic benefits of the new consumption model [2] Market Dynamics - The overall daily order volume in the instant retail market has risen to over 230 million, with Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Instant Retail contributing significantly to this growth [2][3] - The shift towards "big consumption" represents a new phase in consumer behavior, moving beyond traditional necessities to a broader range of categories and consumption scenarios [4][6] Strategic Implications - The competition among digital platforms is evolving from merely increasing order volume to enhancing supply-side quality and sustainability [7][8] - The development of "big consumption" is expected to lead to a brand integration across platform, store, and product levels, creating a comprehensive branding ecosystem [8][9] Challenges and Responsibilities - Companies are urged to focus on genuine consumer needs and avoid the pitfalls of inflated demand and market superficiality [8][9] - The responsibility of platforms includes maintaining product quality and ensuring fair value distribution within the ecosystem, emphasizing sustainable growth [9]

Core Insights - Meituan's instant retail orders have surpassed 150 million, marking a significant milestone in its growth trajectory, driven primarily by genuine consumer demand rather than heavy subsidies [1][10] - The company's strategic restraint in its promotional activities has led to a natural increase in order volume, indicating a shift towards sustainable growth [2][4] Group 1: Order Growth and Structure - On July 5, Meituan's daily orders exceeded 120 million for the first time, with over 100 million stemming from daily dining needs, and by July 12, this number reached 150 million [1][10] - The average order value for Meituan's food delivery remains stable at around 30 yuan, significantly higher than the industry average of 13-14 yuan, indicating a strong focus on core dining experiences rather than low-cost promotional items [3][4] - The composition of orders shows that low-priced items like milk tea and coffee account for less than 17% of total orders, emphasizing the importance of high-frequency dining orders in Meituan's business model [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Advantage and Market Dynamics - Meituan's growth is rooted in a robust user retention model and platform network effects, which have allowed it to achieve high order volumes without relying on price incentives [4][5] - The company is strengthening its supply chain and local network, which are critical for maintaining service quality and user experience, especially as the industry moves away from subsidy-driven growth [6][7] - As subsidies decline, the focus will shift to user experience and local supply capabilities, which are essential for sustaining growth in the competitive landscape [8][9] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and User Experience - Meituan's operational model effectively balances supply and demand, ensuring timely deliveries and high user satisfaction, with a near 99% on-time delivery rate reported [10][12] - The integration of various services, such as grocery and pharmacy deliveries, enhances user engagement and builds trust in the platform's reliability [11][12] - The company's cost control measures, including leveraging a shared delivery network, allow for competitive pricing while maintaining service quality, benefiting consumers and merchants alike [12][13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the competitive landscape of the instant retail and food delivery industry in China, focusing on major players such as JD.com, Alibaba, Meituan, and others. Key Points and Arguments JD.com - JD.com is revamping its non-food delivery business by subsidizing food delivery services to drive traffic, with a focus on high-frequency dining to improve order volume structure [1][2] - During the 618 shopping festival, JD.com achieved 29 million food delivery orders, but this number significantly declined afterward as the company aims to reduce losses [1][14] - JD.com is facing challenges in the instant retail sector, particularly in consumer electronics, and is accelerating its food delivery business to enhance competitiveness [2][25] - The company plans to reduce user subsidies and shift more costs to merchants to mitigate losses, with an expected annual loss of approximately 22 billion RMB [15] Alibaba - Alibaba has integrated Ele.me and Fliggy into its large consumer platform to seek growth through a combination of online and offline services [1][3] - The company is focusing on the Taobao Flash Purchase service, leveraging its large active user base to drive e-commerce purchases [1][17] - Following the organizational restructuring, Alibaba's EBITDA expectations have declined, necessitating close monitoring of its instant retail and e-commerce optimization strategies [2][33] Meituan - Meituan has implemented comprehensive insurance coverage for both full-time and part-time delivery riders, collaborating with the national social security bureau to create a pension scheme [4][5] - The company is expected to incur social security costs of 2 billion RMB in 2025, which will have a limited impact on per-order operating profit [5] - Meituan has upgraded its local life membership system to enhance user engagement and streamline membership acquisition [7] - The company is experiencing significant growth in food delivery orders, with a reported 150 million orders in July 2025, driven by subsidy strategies and new user acquisition [20] Competitive Landscape - The instant retail market is projected to reach a scale of 2 trillion RMB by 2030, with platforms like Meituan leading in non-food delivery services [22] - The competition among major players is intensifying, with Meituan's market share declining from 75% due to aggressive subsidy strategies from Alibaba [29] - The tea beverage market is experiencing inflated demand due to increased subsidies, raising concerns about the sustainability of this demand once subsidies decrease [13] Market Trends - The overall modernization of the food delivery industry is evident, with a market penetration rate of 30% as of 2024 [11] - The shift in consumer behavior is noted, with some consumers opting for online orders over dine-in due to price differences [12] - The competition in the non-food delivery sector is expected to grow, with platforms focusing on expanding low-frequency categories and improving supply chain efficiency [28] Investment Recommendations - For Meituan, a non-GAAP net profit of 38.4 billion RMB is anticipated for 2025, suggesting a buy recommendation below 600 billion RMB [33] - Alibaba's valuation is adjusted to 8-10 times EBITDA due to the integration of Ele.me, with a target valuation range of 1.6-2.2 trillion RMB [33] Other Important Insights - JD.com is restructuring its rider recruitment and delivery system to improve efficiency, with a current full-time rider count of approximately 150,000 [16] - The differences in social security policies between Meituan and JD.com highlight varying approaches to rider benefits, with Meituan offering broader coverage [4] - The impact of marketing strategies on user acquisition and retention is emphasized, with Alibaba leveraging partnerships for better e-commerce performance [18]

Core Insights - The competition in the instant retail and food delivery market is intensifying, with significant increases in active users and order volumes across platforms [1][3][4] - Major players like Meituan and Alibaba are launching aggressive promotional campaigns, including a new promotional event called "Super Saturday" to drive user engagement [3][4][15] - The shift from food delivery to broader instant retail services is underway, with platforms aiming to capture a larger share of the market by expanding their offerings beyond just food [6][22] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 2025, the active user base for instant retail apps has reached 551 million, outpacing traditional e-commerce apps in growth [1] - Meituan reported over 150 million daily orders for instant retail, while Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced over 80 million daily orders, excluding self-pickup and zero-cost purchases [4][9] - The competitive landscape has shifted significantly since Taobao Flash Sale's entry, disrupting the previous market equilibrium [9][15] Group 2: Strategic Moves - Alibaba is integrating Ele.me and Fliggy into its Chinese e-commerce business, indicating a strategic pivot to enhance its market position [3][9] - Meituan's promotional strategies include offering a large number of "0 Yuan Purchase" vouchers, primarily for chain restaurant products, to attract users [4][9] - The platforms are leveraging high-frequency demand for food delivery to drive user acquisition and engagement, with significant increases in active user rates during peak meal times [10][12] Group 3: Financial Implications - The intense competition is expected to lead to substantial financial losses for major players, with projections indicating losses of 41 billion RMB for Alibaba and 26 billion RMB for JD in the next year [15] - The marketing expenditures for e-commerce platforms are shifting towards food delivery as a more efficient customer acquisition channel, with Alibaba's 50 billion RMB subsidy plan seen as part of this strategy [14][15] - The long-term impact of sustained low-price promotions may alter consumer price expectations and purchasing behavior, potentially complicating future profitability [17][21] Group 4: Future Outlook - The transition from food delivery to non-food instant retail is seen as a natural progression, with significant growth in non-food categories such as groceries and household cleaning products [22] - The competition is expected to continue throughout the summer, with platforms vying for dominance in the instant retail space [24][27] - The ongoing battle among major players highlights the increasing importance of becoming comprehensive service platforms to avoid competitive disadvantages [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition among major internet companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com in the instant retail sector is leading to unsustainable subsidy wars, which may result in resource wastage and long-term negative impacts on the industry [1][2][4] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - Consumers are experiencing a surge of attractive offers such as "0 yuan milk tea," but this has led to instances of wasted resources, with many orders going unclaimed [1] - The phenomenon of "fake demand" is emerging, where consumer impulsiveness driven by subsidies does not translate into actual consumption [1] Group 2: Impact on Delivery Workers - Delivery workers are facing increased workloads due to the surge in orders, with some reporting delivery counts as high as 80 to 100 orders in a single day, leading to potential health risks [1][2] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses may benefit from increased traffic due to platform subsidies, but they also bear part of the subsidy costs, leading to situations where order volume increases without corresponding revenue growth [2] - The influx of orders can degrade service quality, negatively affecting consumer perception and long-term brand viability for small businesses [2] Group 4: Impact on Platforms - Platforms are under significant financial pressure due to high subsidy costs, which could lead to short-term profit declines and potential stock price impacts [2] - For instance, Morgan Stanley estimates that Alibaba's investment in related businesses has reached approximately 10 billion yuan, with further increases expected, raising questions about the sustainability of this subsidy model [2] Group 5: Broader Industry Implications - The ongoing subsidy wars are affecting the entire retail ecosystem, with competitors like Pinduoduo and Kuaishou potentially feeling the pressure to join the fray, which could lead to further industry "involution" [3] - The focus on order volume growth over value creation could undermine the long-term benefits for consumers, delivery workers, businesses, and platforms alike [3][4] Group 6: Recommendations for Sustainable Growth - To avoid a detrimental cycle of competition, platforms should prioritize technological innovation and service quality rather than relying solely on price-based strategies [3][4] - Regulatory bodies and industry associations should implement reasonable policies to mitigate the negative effects of excessive competition, ensuring consumer rights and protecting the interests of small businesses and delivery workers [3][4]