别再幻想商业航天的二波行情，贵金属也坚决不要再追高，半导体才是接下来最该聚焦布局的核心方 向。为何说商业航天和贵金属两大板块当下坚决不能碰，仅仅是因为涨幅过高吗？当然不是，一分钟为 大家讲透核心逻辑。第一，从涨幅来看，商业航天上个月涨幅达 26%，看似行情亮眼，而贵金属板块 截至今日本月涨幅更是飙升至 114%，已然涨至高位，且今日板块内部分歧已明显显现，这个节点高位 进场，无异于送人头。第二，贵金属板块存在严重的涨幅透支问题，黄金期货本月仅上涨 28%，但贵 金属板块涨幅却达到 114%，板块涨幅与标的基本面完全不匹配，未来的行情早已被提前透支，后续缺 乏持续上行动力。第三，黑天鹅风险拉满，回顾 10 月 21 号的行情，黄金期货单日下跌 5%，次日贵金 属板块便直接大跌 7%，当下的位置，说白了就是暗藏风险的雷区。 那为何半导体必须重点布局？三大硬核利好持续发酵，每一个都极具支撑力。第一，存储芯片行情彻底 爆发，美光、闪迪等海外龙头股价天天创新高，海外强势走势下，A 股存储芯片板块具备极强的跟涨预 期。第二，三星放出大招，直接将存储产品售价上调一倍，提价幅度远超市场预期，这一动作将带动整 个存储产业链迎来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rise in storage chip stocks, driven by strong earnings reports from SanDisk, which exceeded Wall Street expectations and boosted investor confidence [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hengshuo Co. experienced a rise of over 12% [2] - Taiji Industry reached a 10% limit up [2] - Zhongwei Semiconductor and Jintaiyang both increased by over 7% [1][2] - Puran Co. rose by over 6% [1] - Other notable performers include Xiechuang Data, Chengbang Co., and Yiyaton, all increasing by over 5% [1] Group 2: Financial Results - SanDisk reported significant profit and revenue growth in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, surpassing both Wall Street expectations and the company's prior guidance [1] - Following the earnings announcement, SanDisk's stock price surged nearly 15% in after-hours trading [1]

1月29日国际金、银价格冲高后急跌；瑞士百达资管：黄金将持续受益于"货币贬值担忧"；苹果2026财 年第一财季营收创历史新高；闪迪2026财年第二财季营收增长61%；美联储新主席人选即将宣布；特朗 普称计划同伊朗对话。 【市场回顾】 北京时间1月30日，日韩股市主要股指走势分化。北京时间8时07分，韩国综合指数在开盘小幅走低后转 涨，涨幅为0.5%，日经225指数在高开后转跌，下跌0.17%。 当地时间1月29日，国际金、银价格冲高后急跌。现货黄金一度触及5598.75美元/盎司，随后跳水，日 内跌幅一度超5%；现货白银价格日内跌幅一度超8%。截至收盘，贵金属价格跌幅收窄，现货黄金跌 0.68%，现货白银跌0.63%。 当地时间1月29日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.11%报49071.56点，标 普500指数跌0.13%报6969.01点，纳斯达克指数跌0.72%报23685.12点。 当地时间1月29日，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一。德国DAX指数跌1.92%报24347.16点；法国CAC40指 数涨0.06%报8071.36点；英国富时100指数涨0.17%报10171.76点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sandisk reported significantly better-than-expected Q2 FY2026 results, leading to a nearly 15% surge in stock price after hours, driven by strong revenue and earnings growth [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $3.03 billion, a year-over-year increase of 61.2%, surpassing the expected $2.69 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) were $5.15, exceeding the market expectation of $3.54 [1] - Adjusted gross margin was reported at 51.1%, well above the anticipated 42% [1] Business Segment Performance - Data center revenue surged 64% quarter-over-quarter to $440 million [1] - Edge computing revenue grew 21% to $1.678 billion [1] - Consumer business revenue increased by 39% to $907 million [1] Future Outlook - Sandisk expects Q3 adjusted EPS to be between $12 and $14, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $5.11 [1] - Revenue growth is projected to be robust, ranging from $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion [1] Strategic Partnerships - Sandisk extended its joint venture agreement with Kioxia in Yokkaichi, Japan, until 2034 to ensure stable NAND flash supply, with a payment of $1.165 billion for long-term supply rights [2] - The Yokkaichi plant is a key global production site for 3D NAND, reflecting confidence in long-term collaboration and supply chain synergy [2] CEO Insights - The CEO highlighted the company's agility in leveraging a superior product mix and accelerating enterprise SSD deployment, emphasizing the role of their products in driving AI and global technology [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 30 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退，就业风险可能正趋 | | | | | 于稳定，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。关税的大部分影响已经传导至 | | | | | 经济，预计关税通胀将在 2026 年年中消退。他还说，不会置评美元走势。 | | | | | 2、美国财长贝森特认为，美国贸易逆差缩小应该会自动让美元随着时间的推移走 | | | | | 强，称"强美元政策意味着设定正确的基本面，如果我们有健全的政策，资金就会 | | | | | 流入"；美联储主席人选仍有四位。 | | | | | 3、特斯拉 Q4 财报电话会上 CE ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI servers has led to a significant increase in the performance forecast of Jiangbolong, a leading domestic storage chip manufacturer, with expected net profits for 2025 projected to grow by 150.66% to 210.82% compared to the previous year [2][4]. Financial Performance - Jiangbolong anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 150.66% to 210.82% [2][4]. - The company's revenue is projected to be between 22.5 billion to 23 billion yuan, compared to 17.46 billion yuan in the same period last year [4]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is expected to be between 1.13 billion to 1.35 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 578.51% to 710.60% [4]. Market Position and Product Development - Jiangbolong is recognized as a global leader in semiconductor storage, established in 1999, and offers a range of products including embedded storage, solid-state drives, mobile storage, and memory modules [4]. - The company has successfully developed and applied several main control chips, including the UFS4.1 main control chip, positioning itself among the few companies globally with self-research capabilities in this technology [7]. - Jiangbolong has achieved mass shipments of customized AI storage products to major clients and has introduced wafer-level SiP packaged mSSD products, which are being accelerated for adoption by leading PC manufacturers [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing financing to expand production, with a plan to issue up to 126 million shares to raise no more than 3.7 billion yuan, primarily for high-end storage research and industrialization projects related to AI [8]. - Jiangbolong has maintained a focus on improving operational efficiency, resulting in a reduction in overall expense ratios compared to 2024, which supports the growth of high-end products and supply chain resilience [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangbolong (301308.SZ), forecasts a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by a recovery in storage prices and strong demand from AI server markets [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 150.66% to 210.82% [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.13 billion to 1.35 billion yuan, indicating a substantial increase of 578.51% to 710.60% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter's net profit, excluding non-recurring items, is estimated to be approximately 650 million to 870 million yuan [1]. Market Dynamics - Storage prices stabilized after hitting a low in the first quarter and have been rising due to an imbalance in supply, driven by surging demand for AI servers and a shift in production capacity towards enterprise-level products [1]. - The company has successfully turned losses into profits in the first half of the year, with steady profit growth in the second half [1]. Technological Advancements - The company has achieved mass application of several main control chips and successfully completed the first tape-out of the UFS4.1 main control chip, positioning itself among the few companies globally with self-research capabilities for this generation of chips [2]. - The company has established deep cooperative relationships with multiple wafer foundries and leading smart terminal device manufacturers, with flagship storage products based on UFS4.1 set to enter mass production [2]. - The introduction of customized edge AI storage products has also seen successful mass shipments to key clients [2]. - The company launched wafer-level SiP packaged mSSD products, which are being rapidly adopted by several leading PC manufacturers [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electronic prices is driven by a structural transformation due to explosive growth in the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs, rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The demand for AI is expected to continue growing rapidly, and under the backdrop of a weak dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are likely to rise further, extending the electronic price surge into the end of this year and possibly early next year [1] Information Technology - By Q2 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a cyclical turning point due to production cuts by manufacturers and improved end-user demand. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices. By the end of 2025, the rising costs of industrial metals and other raw materials will cause price increases to spread from memory chips to passive components, testing, packaging, and other segments of the entire industry chain, thereby increasing cost pressures on consumer electronics [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all risen this week, along with increases in DRAM and NAND memory prices. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments from Japan has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production has also narrowed. Panel prices have increased, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments has expanded [2] Midstream Manufacturing - This week, prices for some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have increased, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC have decreased. The photovoltaic price index has risen, with prices for silicon materials increasing, while prices for silicon wafers and components have remained stable. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in the production of packaging equipment has narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. The four-week rolling average of port cargo throughput and container throughput has increased year-on-year [3] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, with the wholesale price of piglets remaining stable compared to last week, and the average price of live pigs has decreased. In terms of pig farming profits, both self-bred and purchased pig farming profits have increased. In the broiler farming sector, the price of broiler chicks has decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while the futures settlement price of corn has increased, and the futures settlement price of cotton has decreased. The ten-day average of box office revenue has increased, while the ten-day average of movie ticket prices has decreased [3] Resource Products - The ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased, while the prices of steel billets have remained stable and rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has decreased, while the price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port has increased. The futures settlement prices of coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has increased, while coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port has decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port has increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent crude oil prices have increased, and the national chemical product price index has risen week-on-week, with chemical prices generally increasing, particularly for fuel oil and asphalt. This week, industrial metal prices have generally risen, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while lead prices have decreased, and most inventories have risen. The prices of gold and silver in the spot and futures markets have increased [4] Financial Real Estate - The net injection in the money market has occurred. The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have decreased. The land transaction premium rate has increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing has decreased. The number of second-hand houses listed for sale nationwide has decreased, while the listing price index has increased [4] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas has increased. The year-on-year decline in the average daily power generation of key national power plants over a 12-week rolling period has narrowed [4]

Company News - Tesla announced the gradual discontinuation of Model X and Model S, with plans to launch a new sports car in April and introduce a third-generation humanoid robot this quarter. The company plans to invest a record over $20 billion in capital expenditures this year for Cybercab, humanoid robots, and other areas [1][1][1] - SK Hynix is projected to achieve an operating profit of 47.21 trillion Korean won in the 2025 fiscal year, surpassing Samsung Electronics to become the new profit leader in the global memory chip industry. Employee year-end bonuses are expected to reach approximately 690,000 RMB, with a focus on deepening HBM4 business to capture market leadership [1][1][1] - Alibaba's Pingtouge officially announced the launch of its self-developed high-end AI chip "Zhenwu 810E," which has been deployed in multiple ten-thousand-card clusters on Alibaba Cloud, achieving a full-stack layout from large models, cloud services to chips [1][1][1] - Porsche China announced a reduction in the number of dealerships to 80 by 2026, down nearly 30% from 114 in 2025. This channel optimization has led to dissatisfaction among some car owners regarding maintenance packages due to store closures, resulting in a crisis of brand trust [1][1][1] - Muyuan Foods disclosed its Hong Kong stock issuance plans, with a maximum issuance price of 39 HKD per share. The public offering in Hong Kong started on January 29 and is expected to end on February 3, aiming to raise over 10 billion HKD for global expansion and technology research and development [1][1][1] - Mingyang Smart Energy released a performance forecast for 2025, expecting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 131.14% to 188.92% for the period from January to December 2025 [1][1][1] - Efort Intelligent Equipment decided to optimize the pricing of certain industrial robot products starting February 1, 2026, with price adjustments ranging from 5% to 12% [1][1][1]

（原标题：?铠侠股价疯涨1200%之后，存储老兵奉命驾驭超级周期! 力争将eSSD抬至AI算力时代的C 位） 智通财经APP获悉，总部位于日本的全球NAND闪存领军者铠侠(Kioxia Holdings Corp.)提拔在存储领域 深耕多年的资深老兵——即执行副总裁大田博夫出任首席执行官兼总裁，此举旨在NAND闪存从周期品 一跃成为AI算力基础设施领域的最核心部件之际，加速扩大其在蓬勃发展的存储芯片市场中的市场份 额。在当前AI推理端算力洪流所带来的近乎"无止境"存储需求的宏大增长背景下，NAND闪存领军者铠 侠所主导的企业级数据中心SSD(即eSSD)可谓爆棚成为全球AI算力投资主题的最火热主线之一。 据了解，现年63岁的大田将接替现年70岁的早坂信夫，后者将出任铠侠高级执行顾问。这家苹果智能手 机iPhone的最核心存储芯片供应商在周四的一份声明中表示，此次领导层变更将在6月举行的年度股东 大会获得股东批准后正式生效。 在刚刚过去的2025年，存储芯片股票以及存储类高端产品股票毋庸置疑是全球股票市场最火热的投资主 题之一，在2026年开年同样如此——比如数据中心企业级SSD存储组件领军者闪迪(SNDK.U ...