Core Insights - The 138th Canton Fair's second phase concluded with a record attendance of nearly 240,000 overseas buyers from 223 countries and regions, marking a 6.8% increase compared to the previous session, showcasing the enduring appeal of Chinese manufacturing [1] - Companies are leveraging design innovation and smart manufacturing to enhance value and expand their global market reach, moving away from price competition [2] - The integration of traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics is becoming a unique selling point for Chinese products in international markets, reflecting cultural confidence [4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The global trade environment is shifting towards a new replenishment cycle as overseas inventory levels normalize and demand from non-US economies rebounds [2] - The Canton Fair highlighted a strong willingness among foreign buyers to place orders, contrasting with previous events where inventory pressures led to a more cautious approach [2] - Companies are adopting intelligent production technologies to improve efficiency and product quality, enabling them to respond better to market demands [2] Group 2: Design and Innovation - Design innovation is seen as a "golden key" for foreign trade enterprises to break through market challenges, with a focus on integrating smart manufacturing [2] - Products showcased at the fair, such as smart kitchen appliances, reflect a deeper understanding of market needs, blending functionality with aesthetic appeal [3] - The fusion of Eastern aesthetics with international trends is gaining traction, with companies creatively combining traditional elements with modern designs to attract global buyers [4][5] Group 3: Cultural Representation - The Canton Fair serves as a platform for China to showcase its cultural confidence and charm to the world, with products that embody traditional Chinese art and modern design [5][6] - The "Guochao" (national trend) movement is becoming a new hallmark for Chinese manufacturing in international markets, emphasizing the blend of cultural heritage and contemporary style [4][5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on cultural storytelling through their products, positioning them as vehicles for cultural exchange and representation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, with property prices declining across both first-tier and second-tier cities, leading to a challenging environment for various stakeholders [1][3][9]. Market Trends - In the second quarter of 2025, the price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities fell by 2.7% month-on-month and 7.8% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in nearly five years [1]. - As of June 2025, the inventory of commercial housing reached 5.37 billion square meters, with a de-stocking cycle extending to 17 months, significantly above the healthy level of 12 months [1]. - Real estate investment growth has been negative for eight consecutive months, and land transaction area decreased by 23.5% year-on-year [1]. Affected Demographics - The most impacted groups are high-leverage young families and workers dependent on the real estate industry [3][4]. - High-leverage families, primarily from the 80s and 90s generations, face severe financial strain due to falling property values and high mortgage burdens [3][4]. - Approximately 37% of homebuyers in first- and second-tier cities belong to high-leverage families, experiencing both asset depreciation and psychological distress [4]. - The real estate industry employs around 250 million people, and the downturn has led to significant job losses and income reductions across various sectors, including real estate agencies, construction, and home improvement [4][6]. Industry Response - The number of real estate agency stores decreased by nearly 15% in the first half of 2025, with a 30% turnover rate among employees [4][6]. - The construction industry saw a 17.3% year-on-year decline in new employment, with some regions reporting a 15% drop in wages for construction workers [4][6]. - Retail in related sectors, such as home furnishings, has also suffered, with foot traffic down over 40% and sales halved compared to the previous year [6]. Government Measures - The government has implemented measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios, reducing mortgage rates, and canceling purchase restrictions [7]. - These policies have shown some effect, with a 5.3% month-on-month increase in national commercial housing sales area in June 2025, indicating signs of market stabilization [7]. Long-term Outlook - The adjustment in the real estate market reflects broader economic and demographic shifts, suggesting that property will no longer consistently appreciate in value [9]. - The focus is shifting back to housing as a means of living rather than speculation, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making in both home buying and career choices [9][10].

Core Insights - The home furnishing industry is at a critical transformation stage, shifting from scale expansion to quality enhancement, driven by changes in global economic patterns and domestic market competition [1][8] - The integration of domestic and international trade is essential for high-quality development, requiring companies to break traditional boundaries and reconstruct industrial logic [8] Group 1: Industry Trends - The home furnishing industry has experienced four stages: rapid growth, deceleration, stable development, and a new round of expansion since 1995 [2] - Companies are advised to adopt a "dual-track layout" in response to international trade barriers, focusing on Southeast Asia and South America as key regions for expansion [2] - The industry is transitioning to a "stock-driven" phase, with market competition becoming polarized, where leading brands innovate through comprehensive solutions while smaller firms focus on regional markets [3] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should prioritize user-centric approaches, emphasizing emotional and social value to meet new consumer demands [4][5] - A four-pronged strategy for export companies transitioning to domestic sales includes establishing systematic understanding through research, shifting management thinking, implementing strategic decoding, and building specialized organizational structures [5] - The importance of localizing products and services for different markets is highlighted, with companies encouraged to simplify service processes and enhance local empowerment [6][7] Group 3: Case Studies and Experiences - Leading companies like Dream Baily, Oppein, TATA, and Sophia shared their experiences in balancing overseas expansion with domestic innovation, emphasizing the need for differentiation and local adaptation [5][6][7] - The concept of "grouping for overseas expansion" is suggested as a way to create additional value and leverage shared resources among companies [7] - The industry is moving from product export to value chain collaboration, indicating a shift towards a more integrated and sustainable business model [8]

Core Insights - The investment philosophy emphasizes finding undervalued assets in forgotten market segments, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term market fluctuations [1][2][3] Investment Strategy - The investment approach is characterized by a commitment to being fully invested since the fund's inception in June 2017, prioritizing the discovery of quality stocks with a safety margin [2][3] - The focus is on identifying undervalued individual stocks rather than timing the market, with a belief that the core of investment lies in continuous discovery of undervalued opportunities [2][3] Market Focus - Current investment interests include sectors that have been temporarily overlooked, such as leading companies in the liquor industry and the home furnishing supply chain [3] - The strategy involves a cautious approach to the AI industry, recognizing its potential but avoiding high-valuation stocks due to a lack of deep understanding and the current market valuations [4][5] Sector Analysis - The copper mining sector is highlighted as a promising investment due to its affordability and growth potential, driven by increasing demand from AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [5] - The belief is that the copper market may face a significant supply gap in the next five to ten years, influenced by various technological and infrastructural demands [5] Long-term Perspective - The long-term outlook for the Chinese capital market is rooted in the entrepreneurial spirit of Chinese entrepreneurs, with expectations for the emergence of competitive and innovative companies [6][7] - The investment philosophy encourages a continuous learning mindset across various industries, focusing on fundamental analysis and recognizing personal limitations in investment capabilities [7]

Core Insights - The South Bay district has successfully implemented initiatives to boost local consumption and facilitate cooperation between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, resulting in significant sales and increased foot traffic for local businesses [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sales and Consumer Engagement - The first Home Expo organized by Qingchuang Meiju in South Bay achieved a remarkable sales figure of 22.8 million yuan, attracting 18,000 visitors [2][3]. - A street dance competition garnered over 300,000 online views and led to a 35% increase in foot traffic to related offline stores [4]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Support - South Bay has adopted a "one enterprise, one policy" approach to support local businesses, focusing on targeted marketing strategies rather than broad campaigns [3]. - The district utilizes platforms like "South Bay Window" and "From South Bay" on Xiaohongshu to create content that addresses consumer needs, such as guides for home purchasing [3]. Group 3: Cross-Border Cooperation - South Bay has facilitated three exchange meetings for Hong Kong enterprises, enabling 30 companies to explore the mainland market and address challenges related to e-commerce [5][6]. - The district has established a strong base for e-commerce and technology companies, enhancing the integration of Hong Kong resources into the local economy [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The South Bay district aims to continue leveraging its united front resources to enhance economic development and provide benefits to more enterprises, contributing to the high-quality growth of Longgang District [7].

Investment News - Three new stocks are available for subscription this week, including Delijia on the main board, Fengbei Biotechnology, and Zhongcheng Consulting on the Beijing Stock Exchange [4] - A total of 52 restricted shares will be unlocked this week, amounting to 4.069 billion shares with a market value of 47.701 billion yuan. Xiamen Bank ranks first in the unlocking list with 9.014 billion yuan, followed by Arrow Home and Weic Technology with 5.146 billion yuan and 4.048 billion yuan respectively [4] - According to CRIC, over 87% of publicly listed REITs reported profits in the first half of the year, with a stable return rate. As of October 21, the total fundraising amount for publicly listed REITs this year reached 41.538 billion yuan, and the total scale of publicly listed REITs in China has reached 207.572 billion yuan [4] - Recently, "B-type" stocks in Hong Kong have become the main targets for reduction by pharmaceutical fund managers. Analysts suggest that the internal differentiation of innovative drugs will accelerate, and the previous strategy of buying into the sector will gradually become ineffective, leading to a focus on stock selection based on commercialization capabilities [4] - Since the launch of the first batch of securities companies' sci-tech bonds in May, the issuance scale of these bonds has steadily increased. As of October 24, the issuance scale of securities companies' sci-tech bonds this year reached 59.17 billion yuan, with expectations for continued rapid growth supported by relevant policies [4] Company Developments - Huawei updated its management information, with Yu Chengdong appointed as the chairman of the Product Investment Committee while continuing to serve as an executive director and chairman of the terminal BG, overseeing Huawei's terminal and HarmonyOS business [5] - WuXi AppTec reported third-quarter revenue of 12.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit of 3.515 billion yuan, up 53.27%. The company plans to sell 100% equity of Kande Hongyi and Jinshi Pharmaceutical to Hillhouse Capital for 2.8 billion yuan [6] - Laopu Gold announced its third price adjustment of the year, with multiple products seeing price increases exceeding 20%. For instance, the price of the Cross Gold Vajra No. 1 (8.39 grams) was adjusted to 18,500 yuan, an increase of 3,500 yuan, representing a 23.33% rise [6] - The domestic white cardboard market is experiencing a new round of concentrated price adjustments, with companies like Bohui Paper, Jiu Long Paper, and Wanguo Paper announcing a unified price increase of 200 yuan per ton for their white cardboard products starting November 1 [6] - Yingtang Zhikong is planning to acquire 100% equity of Guanglong Integration and 76% equity of Aojian Microelectronics, with its stock set to be suspended from trading starting October 27 [6] - Porsche reported a third-quarter loss of 966 million euros (approximately 8 billion yuan), leading to a significant 99% year-on-year decline in sales profit for the first three quarters. The company announced delays in the launch of certain electric vehicle models and extended the market lifecycle of several fuel and hybrid models, incurring an additional expense of approximately 2.7 billion euros (about 22.4 billion yuan) due to restructuring measures [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a value-oriented investment approach, focusing on underappreciated assets during market fluctuations [1][2][3] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves maintaining a fully invested position since the fund's inception in June 2017, emphasizing the importance of finding undervalued stocks with a safety margin [2][3] - The focus is on individual stock value rather than market timing, with successful investments made in sectors like CXO, Hong Kong consumer stocks, and copper mining during periods of market pessimism [2][3] Valuation and Cycles - The core of the investment philosophy is based on valuation and market cycles, with a belief that low prices provide a strong safety margin and potential for significant returns when cycles recover [3] - Current areas of interest include leading companies in the liquor industry and the home furnishings sector, which have been temporarily overlooked by the market [3] AI Industry Perspective - Despite the AI industry's prominence, the company remains cautious, citing a lack of deep understanding and high valuations of related stocks [4] - The company is actively learning about the AI sector while focusing on more stable investments, such as copper mining stocks, which are seen as undervalued with significant growth potential [4][5] Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term market outlook is driven by the entrepreneurial spirit of Chinese entrepreneurs, with expectations for the emergence of competitive companies that create new demand [6][7] - The investment approach is characterized by a continuous learning mindset, analyzing fundamentals, industry dynamics, and management effectiveness to identify suitable investment opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on identifying undervalued assets in forgotten market segments, emphasizing a bottom-up approach to uncover hidden opportunities during market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The company maintains a fully invested position since its inception in June 2017, demonstrating a commitment to long-term value rather than short-term market timing [2]. - The core investment philosophy revolves around finding high-quality stocks with a safety margin, rather than attempting to predict overall market trends [2][3]. - The investment approach is characterized by a focus on valuation and market cycles, with a belief that low prices provide strong safety margins and potential for significant upside when cycles recover [2][4]. Group 2: Current Market Focus - The company is currently exploring opportunities in sectors such as leading liquor brands and the home furnishings industry, which have been temporarily overlooked by the market [3]. - Despite the AI industry's prominence, the company remains cautious, citing high valuations and a lack of deep understanding of the rapidly evolving sector [3][4]. - The company identifies copper mining stocks as attractive investments due to their reasonable valuations and significant growth potential driven by increasing demand from AI infrastructure and renewable energy [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term market outlook is driven by the entrepreneurial spirit of Chinese businesses, with expectations for the emergence of competitive companies that create new demand [4][5]. - The investment strategy is likened to "turning stones," emphasizing continuous learning and analysis of industry fundamentals, competitive dynamics, and management effectiveness [4][5]. - The company acknowledges the inevitability of mistakes in the investment process, viewing them as part of a learning journey that contributes to long-term value accumulation [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 8,672 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 41 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of 48.762 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [3] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28 [3] Group 2 - The earnings reports for major A-share companies will be released next week, with notable companies like Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke, and Sinopec expected to report [5] - A total of 4,347 listed companies are scheduled to disclose their Q3 reports from October 27 to 31, with 1,087 companies having already reported as of October 25 [5] - Among the companies that have reported, 647 have shown a year-on-year profit increase, accounting for approximately 59.52% [5] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports next week [6] - Caterpillar and Boeing are also expected to release earnings that could significantly impact the market [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [7] - Investors will focus on the Fed's language following the decision to gauge future rate cut signals [7] Group 5 - The 2025 APEC Leaders' Meeting will take place from October 31 to November 1 in South Korea, with discussions on U.S.-China relations anticipated [6] - A trade negotiation delegation from China will visit Malaysia for discussions on economic relations with the U.S. [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Views - The metal packaging industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" trend, with recommendations for companies like Orijin and Shengxing [5] - White cardboard prices are set to increase, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [5] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September was lower than expected, suggesting a potential recovery in the U.S. real estate chain demand [5] Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - In September, the retail sales of furniture from enterprises above designated size increased by 16.2% year-on-year, while the residential construction area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year [5][34] - Hangzhou announced a limited-time subsidy for home purchases, providing 100,000 yuan in consumption vouchers for eligible buyers [5] - The home furnishing sector is at historical low valuations, presenting left-side layout opportunities [5] 2. Paper and Packaging - As of October 24, 2025, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with white cardboard increasing by 37 yuan/ton and boxboard by 55.4 yuan/ton [5][57] - The industry is expected to see strong demand in Q4 due to upcoming promotions and holidays, with boxboard and corrugated paper prices likely to remain strong [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies with sufficient self-supplied fiber and well-structured capacity, recommending companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [5] 3. Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that the dental care company Dengkang achieved a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [5][7] - The company is expected to enhance its marketing efforts in Q4, capitalizing on the e-commerce sales peak [5] 4. Export Chain - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with September home sales increasing by 1.5% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [5] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong export capabilities, such as Jiangxin and Dream Lily [5] 5. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco launched a new heated tobacco device in Italy, indicating a growing market potential for new tobacco products [5][10] 6. Textile and Apparel - The report highlights the performance of various apparel brands during the Tmall Double 11 sales event, with Uniqlo and Bosideng leading in women's wear [5][7]