一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 三、深度报告节选 【宏观】 新春经济温和修复 春节出行和消费市场呈温和回升、层次鲜明特征，政策聚焦扩内需优结构，实体、物价、流动性各维度数据表现分化。 春运前19天跨区域人员流动日均2.48 亿人次、同比增5.1%，水运成增长亮点，出行市场进入常态化周期；商品消费依托政策与消费升级实现量价回升，智能产品成亮点，服务消费中旅游表现亮 眼，电影消费受供给质量影响表现平淡。近两周政策围绕扩内需稳增长、优结构强创新双线发力，兼顾短期与中长期发展。实体端内需待振外需亮眼，生产分 化，基建资金充裕但项目短缺问题的仍存，节前停工早于往年，出口仍有韧性或对经济起到托底作用，生产分化持续；物价上CPI小幅上涨、PPI整体平稳； 流动性保持合理充裕，人民币持续升值。 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期 。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报 告： 新春经济温和修复 ， 具体分 析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 01、 宏观｜ 新春经济温和修复 26.02.22 02、 宏观｜ 春节期间：海外有何变化 26.02.22 03、 固收｜ 春节期间不可错过的事 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific Airways has reported a strong start to 2026, with robust passenger and cargo performance continuing from the end of the previous year [1] Group 1: Passenger Traffic - In January 2026, Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Express collectively carried over 3.3 million passengers, an increase of 11% compared to January 2025 [1] - Cathay Pacific achieved a historic milestone on February 14, 2026, with a single-day passenger count exceeding 100,000 for the first time, reaching 100,700 passengers [1] - Hong Kong Express recorded over 710,000 passengers in January 2026, an 8% increase from January 2025 [1] Group 2: Capacity and Performance Metrics - Available seat kilometers (ASK) for Cathay Pacific increased by 14% year-on-year in January 2026 [1] - The cargo volume for Cathay Pacific in January 2026 exceeded 130,000 tons, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [1] - Available cargo ton kilometers (ATK) for Cathay Pacific increased by 3% year-on-year in January 2026 [1]

商务部发言人强调，此次措施的核心目标是遏制日本"再军事化"和潜在的拥核动向。近年来，日本在军 事领域动作频繁，不仅大幅增加军费开支，还积极研发和采购先进武器装备。与此同时，日本在核能领 域的某些行为也引发了国际社会对其拥核意图的担忧。 通过将参与提升日本军事实力的实体列入管控名单并严格实施出口管制，中方能够有效阻断这些实体获 取中国两用物项的渠道，从而抑制其军事能力的进一步发展，维护地区的和平与稳定。 针对无法核实最终用户和用途的实体，将其列入关注名单并加强审查，有助于从源头上控制风险，防止 两用物项被用于提升日本军事实力的相关活动。 此次出口管制措施完全符合中国法律框架，是基于国家利益和安全考量所采取的必要举措。 据披露，被列入管控名单的20家日本企业涵盖多个关键领域。例如，三菱造船株式会社、日本海洋联合 株式会社等在船舶制造方面具有重要地位，其产品可能被用于提升日本海上军事力量；三菱重工航空发 动机株式会社、川崎重工航空宇宙系统公司等在航空技术方面具备领先优势，其研发成果可能被应用于 军事领域；富士通防卫与国家安全株式会社、IHI宇航株式会社等在国防和航天领域发挥着重要作用； 防卫大学作为日本军事人才培养 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in an export control list to curb Japan's military enhancement efforts [1][3] - The entities listed include major companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, which are involved in shipbuilding and aerospace, potentially contributing to Japan's military capabilities [3][4] - A separate list of 20 Japanese entities has been created for those whose end-users and end-uses of dual-use items cannot be verified, imposing stricter export controls on them [2][3] Group 2 - The measures aim to prevent Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear ambitions, as Japan has been increasing military spending and developing advanced military equipment [3][5] - The export control measures are deemed necessary and legal under Chinese laws, aimed at maintaining national security and regional stability [3][4] - Japan has been tightening its own export controls, particularly on high-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment, affecting numerous Chinese entities [5]

Core Insights - During the 2026 Spring Festival period (February 15-23), Shanghai Customs reported a total of 1.131 million inbound and outbound travelers, with an average of 125,700 travelers per day, reflecting a 2.7% increase compared to the 2025 Spring Festival period [1] - The total number of inbound and outbound transportation vehicles reached 6,316, averaging over 700 vehicles per day, which is a 1.2% increase from the previous year [1] - The surge in traveler flow has stimulated consumer spending, as evidenced by the 5,640 tax refund claims verified by Shanghai Customs during the Spring Festival, averaging 626 claims per day, which is three times higher than the daily average in 2025 [1] Summary by Category Traveler Statistics - Total inbound and outbound travelers reached 1.131 million during the Spring Festival [1] - Daily average of travelers was 125,700, a 2.7% increase from 2025 [1] - Inbound and outbound transportation vehicles totaled 6,316, with a daily average exceeding 700, marking a 1.2% increase from the previous year [1] Consumer Impact - The increase in traveler flow has led to a significant rise in consumer activity [1] - Shanghai Customs processed 5,640 tax refund claims during the festival, averaging 626 claims per day [1] - The daily average of tax refund claims represents a threefold increase compared to the 2025 Spring Festival [1]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday, known as the "longest ever," saw a record high in travel activity, with a significant increase in both traditional homecoming and tourism [1][3] - The trend of "reverse reunion," where young people invite their parents to urban areas for the holiday, has gained popularity, leading to substantial savings on travel costs [4] Group 1: Travel Trends - The overall travel enthusiasm during the Spring Festival reached historical highs, with both major tourist attractions and local county-level destinations experiencing unprecedented visitor numbers [1] - Hotel bookings in non-tourist county areas surged over 60% during the holiday, with specific counties like Anhui's Fuyang and Hunan's Changde seeing booking increases of 140% and 130% respectively [2] - The trend of combining family visits with tourism has become a new standard, with early travel departures observed, particularly on the first day of the festival [3] Group 2: Cultural and Thematic Travel - The three main themes driving domestic tourism during the Spring Festival were traditional cultural experiences, ice and snow tourism, and warm-weather retreats [5][6] - Popular cultural activities included visiting historical cities and participating in traditional events, which attracted significant tourist interest [6] - Ice tourism saw a notable increase, particularly among southern tourists, with destinations like Harbin and other northeastern cities becoming hotspots [6] Group 3: International Tourism - There was a 20% increase in foreign visitors booking domestic flights in China during the Spring Festival, with major cities like Shanghai and Beijing being the top destinations [8] - Foreign tourists are increasingly exploring multiple cities rather than staying in one, with a notable interest in culturally rich and unique local experiences [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2026, the maturity of fixed deposits in China is projected to reach approximately 76-77 trillion yuan, with a significant seasonal peak of 32-34 trillion yuan in the first quarter[5] - The year-on-year increase in maturity pressure for 2026 is estimated at 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] - About 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, representing approximately 32% of the total maturity volume, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Analysis - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increase for China and India was significant, with increases of 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively compared to 2024[10] - The U.S. is diversifying its import sources, with a notable decrease in imports from Asia, particularly China, while increasing imports from countries like Vietnam and Mexico[12] Group 3: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - During the Spring Festival, average daily cross-regional passenger flow reached 248 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, indicating a recovery in consumer activity[17] - The consumer confidence index is stabilizing, suggesting that the negative impact of previous economic conditions is beginning to ease[28] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. for January was 2.4%, with core inflation pressures still present, particularly in sectors like transportation and education[31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel demand is robust, with significant growth in air passenger traffic and an increase in ticket prices. The trend is expected to continue positively after the holiday, supported by lower oil prices, leading to improved profitability for airlines compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Overall Travel Volume - As of February 22, 2026, the total social mobility volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with aviation matching this growth rate. The travel volume during the pre-holiday period (February 2-14) grew by 3.1%, while the mid-holiday period (February 15-23) saw a significant increase of 9.7% [5][6][7]. Air Passenger Traffic - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival was approximately 2.39 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%. The growth rate aligns with expectations from the aviation authority. The limited increase in flight schedules has been noted, with a 5% increase in actual flights compared to the previous year [5][8]. Ticket Prices and Load Factors - The report estimates that the domestic load factor increased by approximately 1-2 percentage points year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by about 3-4%. The decrease in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year is expected to enhance the gross profit margins for airlines [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The expectation is that the supply-demand dynamics will improve in 2026, leading to upward trends in ticket prices and profitability. The report recommends an "Overweight" position on the aviation sector, highlighting specific airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines for investment [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are shifting towards companies that are likely to remain resilient amid the AI revolution, favoring "hard asset, low obsolescence" firms like McDonald's and ExxonMobil, while abandoning those perceived as potential victims of AI disruption [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The S&P 500 index has seen strong performance in industrial, materials, utilities, and consumer staples sectors, significantly outperforming the broader market, while the information technology sector has declined [1] - The consumer staples sector achieved its best year-to-date performance ever as of February 20 [1] - A recent example includes AI company Anthropic's release of tools that led to a market value evaporation of approximately $300 billion in software and financial data sectors [2] Group 2: Investment Behavior - Investors are increasingly avoiding sectors they believe face significant disruption threats, leading to a rotation towards "real economy stocks" [2] - There is a notable divergence within the same industry, as seen with Delta Airlines' stock rising by 5.4% while Expedia's stock fell by 23% during the same period [3] - Despite the recent sell-off, there remains a strong influx of investment into the AI sector, with companies like Seagate and Western Digital performing well in the S&P 500 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Upcoming earnings reports from key players like Nvidia, Salesforce, and Home Depot are anticipated to be critical in assessing the AI investment landscape [4] - The recent volatility and concerns over excessive spending by large tech companies indicate an evolution in the AI investment frenzy, with a shift towards more discerning investment strategies [4]