航运日报 | 2025-10-29 宏观层面关注中美关税谈判结果，船司端关注近期是否有11 月下半月涨价函发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹45周报价1425/2380，46周报价1320/2200；HPL -SPOT 11月上半月价格 1335/2135，11月下半月船期报价1735/2835。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 11月上半月船期报价1365/2235；ONE 11月上半月船期报价1365/2135，11月下半月 船期1625/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹11月上半月船期报价1168/1906; YML 11/01-11/14 报价1175/2100。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月上半月船期报价1460/2520，11月下半月船期报价1820/3231；EMC 10月下 半月船期报价1355/2060，11月第一周船期报价1805/2710；OOCL 11月份船期报价1450/2400。 地缘端：当地时间28日，以军当天对加沙城发动了多起空袭。以色列总理办公室28日发表声明称，在巴勒斯坦伊 斯兰 ...

Company Overview - Established in 2002 by five shareholders, listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2009 [2] - Acquired ferry terminal assets in 2017, marking the first step towards port and shipping integration [2] - Became a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping Group in 2019, entering a rapid development phase [2] - Completed resource integration in Qiongzhou Strait in 2021, enhancing transportation service capacity [2] - Plans to acquire 100% equity of COSCO Shipping Passenger by 2025, increasing fleet size to 64 vessels, ranking first globally [2] Business Model - Revenue primarily generated from passenger and cargo transportation fees, alongside port operation income [3] - Development of unique products through tourism routes to enhance overall revenue [3] Market Opportunities - Anticipated increase in passenger and vehicle flow due to Hainan Free Trade Port's operational closure in 2025 [4] - Plans to invest in new flat barges and passenger ferries to meet market demand [4] - New routes to alleviate pressure on existing services [4] Dividend Policy - Committed to providing stable dividends while ensuring sustainable company growth [5] - Dividend policy considers profitability, cash flow, future investment plans, and shareholder expectations [5] Impact of Hainan Free Trade Port - Tax incentives will lower operational costs, creating a favorable environment for growth [6] - Policy changes will facilitate easier movement of goods, attracting more investors [6] - Improved infrastructure, such as the completion of the island tourism highway, will boost business [6] Future Capital Expenditure - Plans to invest in two new passenger ferries to replace aging vessels [7] Competitive Landscape - COSCO Shipping Passenger operates 12 vessels, while Bohai Ferry has 14, indicating a slight edge for the latter [8] - Focus on improving operational efficiency and management to enhance profitability [8] - Strategy includes capacity upgrades, joint marketing, and cost control measures [8] Disclosure - The activity does not involve any undisclosed significant information [9]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for October, including companies such as China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750.SZ) [1] - The macroeconomic analysis emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period for China's reform and innovation, indicating that it is a critical time for achieving significant progress towards socialist modernization [5] - The fixed income section discusses the recent fluctuations in the bond market, noting that the central bank's actions to pause and then resume government bond trading reflect its intention to stabilize yields [6][7] - The report provides an overview of market indices, showing slight declines in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3988.22, down 0.22% [3] - Industry performance data indicates that the comprehensive index rose by 2.06%, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and beauty care saw declines of 2.72% and 1.51%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - SITC International reported a decline in revenue and freight rates in 3Q25, indicating a challenging market environment for container shipping [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for SITC in 3Q25 was US$796 million, down 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) and 11.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1]. - Container shipping volume increased by 8.9% YoY but decreased by 11.0% QoQ to 920,179 TEU [1]. - The average freight rate was US$712 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), reflecting a decrease of 12.0% YoY and 5.7% QoQ [1]. Market Trends - Freight rates softened during the low season in 3Q25, with Southeast Asian route rates declining sharply by 30.6% YoY and 11.7% QoQ, while Japanese route rates increased by 20.5% YoY but fell 2.3% QoQ [2]. - Supply tightness for small container ships in Asia is expected to persist, with an annual supply growth of only 1-2% over the next three years [2][3]. Capacity and Demand Dynamics - Increased feeder demand due to Red Sea diversions has contributed to supply tightness, with capacity for vessels under 3,000 TEU increasing by 8.5% from end-2023 to October 2025 [3]. - Charter rates for 1,700 TEU and 2,750 TEU vessels increased by 37.8% and 16.4% YoY, respectively, indicating tight capacity conditions [3]. Industry Shifts - The trend of industrial relocation may accelerate due to the latest US tariff policy, potentially boosting intra-Asia cargo volumes [4]. - China and ASEAN countries experienced YoY export and import growth of 9.6% from January to September 2025, driven by ongoing supply chain relocations [4]. Valuation - SITC maintains an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK$36 per share, implying a 27.0% upside based on 10.0x 2025 estimated price-to-sales (P/S) [5].

Company Overview - The company reported Q3 2025 operating data, achieving revenue of $796 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.9% [1] - Container shipping volume reached 920,179 TEU, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% [1] - Average freight rate (excluding slot exchange fee revenue) was $712 per TEU, down 12.0% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Commentary - The market for small container ships in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with attention on the progress of the Red Sea route reopening [1] - According to Clarksons, the annual new supply of small container ships is projected to be only 1-2% over the next three years, with 11.2% of vessels over 25 years old [1] - The tight supply of small ships this year is primarily due to the need for small vessels to support feeder services after the Red Sea detour and increased demand for small ships in long-distance alliances [1] - Alphaliner data indicates that by October 2025, capacity for vessels under 3,000 TEU will have increased by 8.5% compared to the end of 2023, with new capacity mainly in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent, and European routes [1] - Current rental rates for 1,700/2,750 TEU vessels have increased year-on-year by 37.8% and 16.4%, respectively [1] Industry Trends - The trend of industrial transfer under U.S. tariff policies may accelerate, with cargo volumes in the Asian region expected to continue increasing [2] - From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports between China and ASEAN countries was +9.6% [2] - The ongoing industrial transfer from China to Southeast Asian countries is anticipated to further boost economic growth in these nations, contributing to stable cargo volume growth in the Asian region [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and industry rating, with the current stock price corresponding to 7.8x and 9.4x P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The target price remains at HKD 36 per share, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.0x and 11.9x for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue, attributing this success to job cuts and cost-cutting initiatives, and provided an optimistic revenue outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter, resulting in a significant increase in share price [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue - UPS announced third-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations [1]. - The company cited job cuts and cost-cutting measures as key factors contributing to its performance [1]. - An upbeat revenue outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter was issued, positively impacting investor sentiment [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, UPS shares rose by 10.4%, trading at $98.45, marking the best day for the stock since February 2022 [2]. - The stock has recovered from a five-year low of $82 recorded on October 14 and is approaching long-term resistance at the 100-day moving average [2]. - Year-to-date, UPS equity is down 21.9% [2]. Group 3: Options Trading Activity - Options traders have shown increased optimism, with a 50-day call/put ratio of 3.27, ranking in the 84th percentile of annual readings [3]. - There has been significant activity in the options market, with 58,000 calls and 28,000 puts traded, which is 14 times the typical volume for this time [4]. - The most active option is the January 16, 2026, 105-strike call, while positions are being sold to open at the weekly 10/31 95-strike put [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能), is planning to acquire 100% equity of Shanghai Liquefied Gas for RMB 598 million, which is a strategic move to enhance its logistics supply chain in the energy and chemical sector [1][2] Group 1 - The acquisition is part of the first phase of integrating the energy and chemical logistics supply chain, aimed at optimizing resource allocation and improving the company's quality [1] - The acquisition will be completed within five working days after the agreement takes effect, with the payment made via bank transfer [1] - This move is aligned with the company's goals of state-owned enterprise reform and better service to customer needs [1] Group 2 - Following the completion of the first phase of logistics supply chain integration, this acquisition is a key initiative for the second phase of reform [2] - The acquisition is expected to improve the financial performance of COSCO Shipping Dalian Investment and accelerate its overall reform efforts [2] - The integration of LPG transportation business assets into the listed company structure is anticipated to create favorable conditions for future major projects in the capital market and enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders [2]

格隆汇10月28日丨中远海能(01138.HK)宣布，公司拟进行拟议收购事项，详情如下。根据上海液化气股 权转让协议，中远海运大连投资同意出售而大连海能同意收购上海液化气的全部股权，惟须遵守协议的 条款及条件。大连海能将有权承担或享有根据上海液化气股权转让协议将予转让股权于过渡期间内的损 益。 上海液化气为根据中国法律注册成立的有限责任公司，其为一家控股公司，主要持有1艘大型LPG运输 船舶(VLGC)「长兴源」轮。 上海液化气的全部股权的代价为人民币5.98亿元，并应于上海液化气股权转让协议生效日期起5个工作 日内，由大连海能通过银行转账方式向中远海运大连投资支付交易对价全部的价款。代价乃参考独立评 估机构上海东洲对上海液化气的评估价值，并经双方公平协商后厘定。根据上海东洲出具的评估报告， 上海液化气的股东全部权益价值于评估基准日之估值为人民币5.98亿元。最终交易价格以经有权国资主 管部门备案的资产评估价格为准。上述有关上海液化气股权的估值根据中国法律及法规按资产基础法厘 定。 ...

于2024年第四季度，本公司透过初次收购事项对中远海运集团能源化工品物流供应链整合进行第一阶段 工作，其为落实国企改革、优化资源配置，提升本公司质量的重要举措。初次收购事项是本公司聚焦能 源化工品物流资源集成、实现协同发展、更好服务客户需求的重要举措，更是建设能源化工品物流供应 链、打造行业标杆、更好服务管理升级的关键引擎。 继完成物流供应链整合的第一阶段后，本次收购上海液化气的全部股权是本集团继续推进第二阶段改革 任务的首要举措。根据目前的评估，中远海运大连投资通过受让上海液化气100%股权有利于改善其财 务盈利状况，有利于加快推进后续中远海运大连投资整体改革工作。同时，通过本次收购，大连海能作 为本公司下属LPG业务统一运营平台，将实现本集团已投产LPG运输业务在业务运营、资产管理、财务 核算、人员配置等方面的统一管理，形成规模效应，增强市场竞争力。 中远海能（600026）(01138)发布公告，本公司拟进行拟议收购事项，详情如下。根据上海液化气股权 转让协议，中远海运大连投资同意出售而大连海能(本公司全资附属公司)同意收购上海液化气的全部股 权，惟须遵守协议的条款及条件。大连海能将有权承担或享有根据上 ...

Core Insights - Ningbo Ocean Transportation Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.581 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 155 million yuan, up 21.15% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on strategic planning and layout to solidify its long-term development foundation [1] Container Business - The near-sea shipping routes have shown steady growth, with enhancements in Southeast Asia shipping services [1] - Two direct lines to Thailand and Vietnam have been renewed, and a new direct shipping line from Ningbo to Wenzhou to Manila has been launched, improving regional route networks [1] - The total number of shipping routes has exceeded 40, creating a comprehensive network for domestic and near-sea trade [1] Bulk Cargo Business - In Q3 2025, the company successfully launched its first West Africa route, marking a significant step in expanding its global shipping network [2] - This development underscores the company's commitment to deepening its presence in the West African market [2] Green Fleet Development - The company has integrated green and low-carbon principles into its fleet planning and operations, with 29 green energy-efficient vessels, accounting for 54.7% of its owned fleet [3] - The "740 standard container pure electric ship" project has been recognized as a national demonstration project for green low-carbon technology [3] - The first domestic pure electric ship has completed its hull construction and core power system installation [3] Market Response and Future Outlook - The international shipping market has experienced fluctuations due to multiple external factors, but the company has managed to enhance its main shipping business and expand its global route network [4] - The company has been recognized for its excellence in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, being included in the "2025 Zhejiang Business ESG Classic 100" list [4] - Looking ahead, the company aims to strengthen its competitive capabilities and work towards becoming a leading regional logistics service provider in Asia [4]