Core Insights - The main point of the article is the analysis of the glass futures market, highlighting the trading volume, positions of major players, and changes in long and short positions as of July 10, 2025 [1][3][4]. Trading Volume and Price Movement - As of July 10, 2025, the main contract for glass (2509) closed with a price increase of 5.25%, with a trading volume of 3.068 million contracts [1]. - The total trading volume for all glass futures contracts reached 3.4944 million contracts, an increase of 208,430 contracts from the previous day [1]. Position Analysis - The top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 234,895 contracts [1]. - The long positions among the top 20 decreased by 46,200 contracts, totaling 918,600 contracts, while the short positions decreased by 112,100 contracts, totaling 1,212,900 contracts [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 107,039), CITIC Futures (65,768), and Dongzheng Futures (56,462) [1]. - The top three short positions were also led by Guotai Junan (223,924), CITIC Futures (136,712), and Galaxy Futures (110,801) [1]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Xinda Futures (26,503, increase of 6,895), Guotai Junan (80,787, increase of 6,830), and Guohai Liangshi (20,925, increase of 6,492) [1]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from CITIC Jiantou (41,091, decrease of 13,022), Fangzheng Zhongqi (37,623, decrease of 10,957), and Dongfang Caifu (24,990, decrease of 7,945) [1]. Summary of Changes - The top three increases in short positions were from CITIC Jiantou (30,050, increase of 10,220), Huishang Futures (16,459, increase of 4,744), and Ping An Futures (29,540, increase of 3,926) [1]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from Guotai Junan (144,691, decrease of 51,924), Yong'an Futures (85,857, decrease of 21,231), and Huatai Futures (40,841, decrease of 18,092) [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月10日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 262890 | 245000-263000 | 11.52% | 16.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） 重要新闻： 基本面保持稳定。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 3. 缅甸复产不及预期。 利空因素： 1. 关税政策反复。 2. 缅甸复产。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7,000 - 7,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.30%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 33.2% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline: - Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,300 - 7,400 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 120 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - When inventory is low and want to lock in procurement costs: - Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7,100 - 7,200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Core Contradiction - PE supply has decreased recently: device overhauls are ongoing until mid - July; some full - density devices switched from LLDPE to HDPE due to high HDPE - LLDPE spread; PE imports from Iran may decline in July - August. Although PE demand is in the off - season, the demand in June was better than expected, indicating potential upward drivers for PE [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread led to production switch, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict may cause a decline in PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year [5] - The spot price has been weak [5] 6. Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis, L01, L05, L09 contracts, and various month - spreads showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North, East, and South China, as well as regional spreads, changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between HDPE and LLDPE products and LDPE and LLDPE products changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, methanol price, and various PE processing profits showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains a view of buying precious metals on dips. The precious metals market may follow the safe - haven logic under the escalation of the tariff trade war or the logic of enhanced interest - rate cuts when tariff concerns ease. The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation since late April. The short - term focus is on the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400; for London silver, the support is in the 36 - 36.2 area, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The operation strategy is still to buy on pullbacks [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver adjust. The U.S. dollar index oscillated weakly, U.S. bond yields decreased significantly, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rose, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3322.5 per ounce, up 0.17%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.605 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 766.82 yuan per gram, down 1%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 8899 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% [2]. - The Fed's June FOMC meeting minutes showed increased differences among officials regarding the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Most officials believed that tariffs might continuously push up inflation, while a few were willing to consider an interest - rate cut at the next meeting. The reasons for the differences were the uncertainty of tariff policies and their impact on inflation, as well as the government's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have slightly increased overall. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 4.5%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 44.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 31.9 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.8 tons to 1320.9 tons, and as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - On Thursday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. - On Friday at 02:30, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on the U.S. economic outlook [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio of CME and the price differences between SHFE and TD [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [15][16]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the U.S. dollar index, U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Index, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year U.S. bond yield, 10 - year U.S. real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year U.S. bond yield spread [22].

Group 1 - The article discusses the reasons behind the recent three consecutive price cuts by investment banks in the palm oil market [1] - It raises questions about the future outlook of the palm oil market and what factors will influence it [1] - The market is expected to focus on an important upcoming report that could provide further insights into the palm oil industry [1]

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated July 9, 2025, focusing on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, with persistent supply - surplus pressure. Supply will increase due to lower electricity costs in the wet season, while downstream demand is insufficient. Short - term inventory has decreased, but remains at a historical high. The industry faces significant adjustment pressure. Recommended strategies are SI2509 - SI2512 positive spread arbitrage and long SI2508 - short PS2511 [4] Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is influenced by both fundamental and "anti - involution" logics. Fundamentally, lower raw material prices and expected lower electricity costs may boost production capacity, but demand growth is limited after the H1 PV installation rush. High inventory persists. If effective industry integration occurs, it could reverse the current situation. The recommended strategy is PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread arbitrage [10] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous period; trading volume is 1153446 lots, down 32.44%; open interest is 399029 lots, up 3.08%. SI09 - 11 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 22.22%; SI11 - 12 spread is - 310 yuan/ton, up 4.62% [14][16] Spot Data - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remain stable. The basis of East China 553 is 535 yuan/ton, down 24.11%; the basis of East China 421 is 835 yuan/ton, down 16.92%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [18] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipts are 50792 lots, down 285 lots (1.27%). Warehouse receipts in some regional delivery warehouses have changed slightly [25] Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 39270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%; trading volume is 794464 lots, up 25.24%; open interest is 97187 lots, down 12.09%. PS08 - 09 spread is 400 yuan/ton, up 63.27%; PS08 - 11 spread is 810 yuan/ton, up 70.53%; PS09 - 11 spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 78.26%; PS11 - 12 spread is - 2135 yuan/ton, up 15.61% [28][30] Spot Data - Spot prices of some polysilicon products are stable, while N - type polysilicon price index and some other products have increased slightly. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 40 yuan/kg, up 3.36% [35] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 730 yuan/ton, up 131.75%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment. Also, buy out - of - the - money put options [2] Procurement Management - When there is a risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]

Report Title Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report, July 9, 2025 - Spot Price of Taicang Delivery Goods Weakens [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current cost of logs has support, but the spot digestion ability may face certain pressure, and the log futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: With high log import volume and high inventory, and concerns about price drops, enterprises with long - spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short - spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions in Delivery - The first - month delivery of the 07 contract is in progress. Manual and intelligent measurement are randomly matched. The intelligent measurement has a larger over - measurement rate, estimated at a 2% range. The delivery efficiency has gradually improved, with manual measurement achieving a pre - measurement mechanism, increasing the delivery rate to about 40 - 45 minutes per lot. The actual delivery cost at Taicang Xinhai Wharf is 7 yuan per cubic meter. Sellers may face friction costs due to non - standard log shapes, which can be reduced by paying sorting fees or accepted as random costs. If the goods are of good quality, the random cost can be less than 10 yuan per cubic meter. Buyers without direct processing ability need to sell the received logs at a discount to processing plants [3]. Spot Market - The price of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang dropped by 20 yuan to 750 yuan per cubic meter. The latest CFR quote has a maximum of 117 US dollars, increasing import costs, but the possibility of weakening ocean freight makes the sustainability of this quote uncertain. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume remains high. Although the real estate market is weak, furniture consumption provides support, and the national subsidy policy boosts the demand for pallets in related fields. The ongoing delivery process allows downstream processing plants to continuously absorb delivery goods for replenishment. If the absorption willingness weakens in the future, the spot price may continue to decline. Overseas shipment volume shows no obvious weakening, and there is still pressure on future arrivals [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the continuous increase in foreign shipment volume [8]. Spot and Basis - The report provides spot prices, price changes, spot over - measurement conversions,主力 contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, and basis calculations for different log specifications in different ports on July 9, 2025. The formula for the converted basis is: Converted basis = Spot price after over - measurement (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [8][9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The imported volume of radiata pine in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 million cubic meters and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port inventory was 323 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 13 million cubic meters. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,926,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 85,000 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,093,911 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20,589 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 40%. - **Demand**: As of July 4, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 6.69 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 32.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.9 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 60.5%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.15 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. - **Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was - 73 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan. The import profit of spruce was - 38 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the high supply of pure benzene both domestically and overseas, the inventory at East China ports has increased, and the profit of pure benzene is lower than the same period in previous years. The supply of domestic pure benzene exceeds demand, and the increase in overseas pure benzene export this year further exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. Although the recent rise in international oil prices may support the cost side, in the short term, the spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the upward space of BZ2603 futures may be restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of pure benzene 03, 04, 05, and 06 contracts are 6070 yuan/ton (up 139), 6080 yuan/ton (up 154), 6079 yuan/ton (up 151), and 6050 yuan/ton (up 132) respectively. The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 31,731 lots, and the open interest is 9,140 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6,866 yuan/ton, 4,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton (down 150), and 5,800 yuan/ton (down 20) respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 5,975 yuan/ton (up 50) and 5,675 yuan/ton (up 40) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) are 717 US dollars/ton (up 5) and 730.5 US dollars/ton (up 3) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 72.04 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 586.5 US dollars/ton (up 9.5) [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14% (up 0.13), the weekly output is 43.33 tons (up 0.07), the port inventory is 17.7 tons (up 0.6), the production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton (down 118.2), and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton (up 76) [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 80.03% (down 0.05), the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72% (up 6.41), the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54% (down 0.46), the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24% (down 0.1), and the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3% (up 2) [2]. Industry News - The GDP scale of China in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan [2]. - From June 27 to July 3, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 7, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 17.4 tons, a decrease of 1.69% compared with the previous period and an increase of 480.00% year - on - year. BZ2603 rose 2.50% to close at 6,070 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1 - The expectation of a gradual implementation of US fiscal policies is leading to a relatively weak performance of gold [1] - The recent US non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has caused the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut, shifting focus to upcoming US tariff policies [1][2] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are providing strong support for precious metal prices, with gold expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 2 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, which is putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical events and uncertainties related to the trade war [2]