- The report discusses the construction of a "ROIC Model" for interest rate predictions. The model calculates the implied ROIC of the bond market and compares it with the equity market's ROIC to estimate the interest rate midpoint. The formula used is: $ ROIC = (Risk-free rate + Equity risk premium) × Equity proportion + (Risk-free rate + Credit risk premium) × Debt proportion $ Here, the risk-free rate is represented by the 30-year government bond yield, and the credit risk premium is derived from AAA corporate bond spreads. The model uses data from A-share listed companies (excluding financials) and large-scale industrial enterprises to calculate ROIC values. The results show a long-term downward trend in both equity and bond market ROICs, with equity ROIC consistently higher by an average of 50 basis points over the past decade[51][52][56] - The "Multi-cycle Interest Rate Timing Strategy" is introduced, which employs kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance levels in interest rate trends. This strategy is applied to 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields. The annualized returns for the strategy are 2.19%, 2.48%, and 3.26%, respectively, with maximum drawdowns of 0.72%, 0.97%, and 1.71%. The strategy demonstrates stable performance, with probabilities of achieving positive absolute and excess returns close to 100% since 2008[75][77][81] - A "Pure Bond CARRY Strategy" is also highlighted, which leverages dynamic leverage to enhance returns. The strategy allocates 140% to bonds when borrowing costs (R007) are below the 80th percentile of historical levels and 100% otherwise. Over the past decade, the strategy has delivered an annualized return of 5.56%, with a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.92. In 2023-2025, the strategy achieved annual returns of 7.21%, 7.39%, and 2.25%, respectively, with excess returns of 84 basis points, 121 basis points, and 21 basis points[83][84][88] - The "Momentum and Fundamental Composite Factor" is used for sector rotation strategies. This factor combines "Net Profit Growth Rate (QoQ)" and "ROA TTM Growth Rate (QoQ)" to rank industries. Historical backtests from 2008 to 2025 show strong performance, with an average annualized return of 18.60% and an excess return of 8.49% over the benchmark. In 2025, industries such as electronics, computers, media, defense, non-ferrous metals, and new energy equipment ranked high in both valuation and fundamental improvement metrics, making them recommended sectors for Q1 2026[45][46][47] - The "PB-ROE Framework" is applied to identify undervalued industries. By comparing the PB and ROE levels of various sectors as of December 31, 2025, industries like non-bank financials, home appliances, agriculture, basic chemicals, and light manufacturing are identified as having relatively low PB but high ROE expectations. These sectors are considered undervalued and are recommended for investment in 2026[48][49][50]

Core Viewpoint - As of January 6, 95% of individual stocks have not broken their previous highs, despite major indices reaching new highs, indicating potential structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, All A-shares, CSI 300, and CSI 800 have all reached new highs, but only 5% of individual stocks have surpassed their previous highs [2]. - The previous high for individual stocks is defined as the highest closing price from September 24, 2024, to December 31, 2025, with most stocks still down by over 10% from these highs [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The sectors that have broken through previous highs are concentrated in a few segments, particularly in large financials represented by insurance, and sectors benefiting from price increases such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, petrochemicals, and construction materials [1][5]. - Other sectors that have seen new highs include military, machinery, and home appliance components driven by commercial aerospace and robotics [1][5]. Group 3: Sectors Near Previous Highs - Sectors that have not yet broken their previous highs but are close include technology growth (commercial vehicles, semiconductors, communication equipment), cyclical industries (steel raw materials, renovation materials), and consumer sectors (animal health, textiles, agriculture) [10]. - Industries with significant gaps to their previous highs include technology growth (motors, software, batteries, photovoltaics), dividend sectors (electricity, white goods, banks), and consumer sectors (food and beverage, social services, retail) [13].

Core Viewpoint - As of January 6, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, All A, CSI 300, and CSI 800 have reached new highs, but 95% of individual stocks have not surpassed their previous highs, indicating a concentrated market rally driven by a few sectors [1][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market has shown a "continuous rise" since mid-December, primarily driven by a few sectors, with significant contributions from large financial stocks like insurance [4][17]. - The current market dynamics reveal that only 5% of stocks have broken through their previous highs, with most stocks still down by over 10% from their peaks [1][16]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Industries that have surpassed previous highs are mainly concentrated in specific segments such as large financials (insurance), certain materials (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, oil and gas), and sectors related to commercial aerospace and robotics [6][20]. - Sectors that are close to their previous highs but have not yet surpassed them include technology growth (commercial vehicles, semiconductors), cyclical industries (steel raw materials, building materials), and consumer sectors (animal health, textiles) [9][25]. - Industries that remain significantly below their previous highs include technology growth (electric motors, software, batteries), dividend sectors (electricity, banking), and consumer sectors (food and beverage, retail) [13][27].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of China Satellite has increased by 156.07% since December 3, 2025, significantly outperforming the 23.92% increase in the Shenwan Military Industry sector and the 5.31% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a potential overreaction in market sentiment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown a short-term increase that is markedly higher than both the industry and the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The latest rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the company is 2201.97 times, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 19.92 times, both significantly exceeding the industry averages [1] - The Shenwan Military Industry sector has a latest rolling P/E ratio of 188.95 times and a P/B ratio of 5.03 times, indicating that the company's valuation is severely detached from its fundamentals [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - As of January 6, the stock turnover rate was 15.33%, with an average turnover rate of 15.08% over the previous five trading days, which is higher than the normal turnover rate [1] - The stock is currently at its historical peak, suggesting a potential for rapid price corrections due to market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a volatile adjustment pattern last week, with significant divergence among major indices and notable structural characteristics [1][7] - Technology applications showed strength, while the oil and petrochemical sectors experienced two consecutive weeks of gains; the military industry continued to gain traction, but the new energy sector saw a pullback [1][7] Group 2: Macro Analysis - The manufacturing PMI in December showed a seasonal rebound, reaching 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first expansion since April [2][8] - Among 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported a PMI increase compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions, domestic policy adjustments, and energy supply stability [2][8] - The government has proactively issued new local government debt limits for 2026 and initiated significant investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan to accelerate fund allocation [2][8] Group 3: Overseas Economic Data - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with pending home sales in November rising by 3.3%, significantly above the anticipated 0.9% [3][9] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 199,000, lower than the forecast of 218,000, indicating a robust labor market [3][9] - The December FOMC meeting minutes indicated a hawkish stance, with most participants supporting potential rate cuts if inflation trends downward [3][9] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and surpass critical thresholds, supported by anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts and increased liquidity from new capital inflows [4][10] - The focus is on technology growth, non-bank financials, and cyclical assets, with a particular emphasis on AI and emerging market industrialization trends [4][10] - Investment opportunities include sectors such as internet, electronics, media, and manufacturing with global competitive advantages, as well as non-bank financials like insurance and brokerage firms [5][11]

以上评论，仅供参考，不作为买卖建议；股市有风险，入市需谨慎（若如提及个股，仅为举例）！投资 者根据手中个股，结合直播思路，尽量做一些合理的操作选择！认为观点有道理的，请【点赞+留言 +爱心+转发】支持，点赞很重要！最后，淘气天尊申明：淘气天尊不会留联系方式（无裙）、不会关 注你、不会私下联系你、不会联系你问询股票、不会联系你谈论股票合作！凡是出现"淘气天尊"联系 你，请及时拉黑和举报，请投资者切勿上当受骗！请关注粉丝数和认证，以及发文时间，其实很好区分 的！ 来自深圳市新兰德证券投资咨询有限公司【陶琦】【执业编号：A0780616060005】 个人观点仅供参考，文章中任何内容均不对您构成任何投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 周二市场呈现高开高走的格局，投资者可以看到，早盘沪指高开2点于4026点，创业板低开14点于3279 点，市场开盘以后沪指一往无前的冲高，权重块轮番冲击，带领指数新高以后继续冲高，盘中虽然两次 试盘跳水，但都回稳以后新高，盘尾各大指数收于全天相对高位区域！最终沪指收涨60点于4083点，创 业板收涨于3319点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's state-owned enterprise ETF (159519) rose over 0.8%, driven by the appreciation of the Renminbi and profit expectations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - By 2026, the capital market is expected to feature a dual focus on "technological innovation + dividend assets" [1] - In terms of technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing are identified as core themes, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" elevating "AI+" to a national strategy, predicting that the smart economy will become a significant growth driver by 2030 [1] - The PB valuation of technology sectors such as electronics, communications, and computers has reached historical highs, indicating strong market pricing for cutting-edge technologies [1] Group 2: Dividend Assets - The cash dividends for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 constituent stocks are projected to reach CNY 10,116 billion and CNY 18,192 billion in 2024, respectively, with dividend payout ratios exceeding 40% [1] - The trend of high dividends is expected to continue under policy guidance [1] Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and machinery are anticipated to strengthen their global competitiveness, with an expected market space increase of CNY 10 trillion over the next five years [1] - The chemical industry has shown signs of profit improvement, with a ROE of 7.47% [1] Group 4: Defense and Infrastructure - The military industry is poised for growth due to accelerated national defense modernization, with a projected 7.2% year-on-year increase in the defense budget by 2025 [1] - The commercial aerospace market is expected to exceed CNY 2.3 trillion in scale [1] - The power grid equipment sector will benefit from the construction of new power systems, with average annual investments expected to increase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the collective rise of Europe's three major stock indices, with the UK FTSE 100 index breaking the 10,000-point mark for the first time, closing up by 0.54% [1] - The French CAC40 index increased by 0.20%, while the German DAX index saw a more significant rise of 1.34% [1] - The military sector in Europe experienced notable gains, driven by the U.S. military action against Venezuela, with shares of Germany's largest arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and Sweden's Saab, the maker of the Gripen fighter jet, both rising over 5% [1]

2026.01. 06 本文字数：2144，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈玺宇 在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动之后，欧洲市场出现连锁反应。 当地时间周一（5日），军工股等权重板块走势强劲，推动欧洲主要股指全线上扬。截至收盘，欧洲 基准股指欧洲斯托克600指数涨5.62点，涨幅0.94%，报601.76点，首次突破六百点关口，创下历史 新高。 德国DAX指数涨329.35点，涨幅1.34%，报24868.69点，同样收于纪录高位。英国富时100指数涨 53.43点，涨幅0.54%，报10004.57点，历史上首次收于一万点上方。 整体来看，欧洲市场避险情绪相对有限。尽管地缘政治风险骤然上升，但投资者并未大规模撤离风险 资产，欧股延续了去年以来的上行趋势。 英国研究机构凯投宏观（Capital Economics）在最新报告中表示， 委内瑞拉经济体量在全球范围内 占比有限，其政治形势变化对全球经济和金融市场的直接冲击相对可控。该机构认为，美国此次行动 短期内不太可能对全球增长、贸易格局或金融稳定构成系统性风险。 一位不愿具名的市场人士在接受第一财经采访时称，大多数西方公司早已撤出委内瑞拉，要么是在 20 ...

Evercore ISI政策分析师Matthew Aks在报告中写道："这无疑是一项重大的地缘政治事件，但短期内不太可能成为推动市场大幅波动的核 心因素。我们的直觉判断是，特朗普并不热衷于他长期以来所批评的、类似伊拉克和阿富汗战争那样的大规模地面部队介入式政权更迭。" 标普500能源板块指数上涨2.7%，其中权重股埃克森美孚和雪佛龙均大幅上扬。在美国采取军事行动的背景下，军工股同样走高。洛克希 德·马丁和通用动力股价上涨约3%，推动标普500航空航天与国防指数升至历史新高。 美国银行财富管理公司高级投资策略师Rob Haworth表示："能源股正从市场预期中显著受益。投资者认为，特朗普有意推动美国能源企业 进入委内瑞拉，加大投资力度，并最终提升企业盈利能力。" 他补充称："由于不存在永久性地面部队部署，也没有长期军事介入的迹象，更广泛的股票市场得以暂时忽略对长期军事冲突的担忧。" Interactive Brokers首席市场分析师Steve Sosnick表示："近期市场情绪明显偏向金融板块。在投资者逐步将注意力从科技股转移之际， 金融股正成为重要的配置方向。" 经济数据显示，美国12月制造业活动萎缩程度超 ...