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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning and showed an overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices during the day, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 mark. Favorable factors include a good market atmosphere, a decline in the US dollar index, and a slight decrease in social inventories. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong performance during the day. The position increased slightly, and the main contract price broke through the 20,200 mark. Benefiting from good downstream demand, social inventories of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline at a low level. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night. The main contract price once fell below the 119,000 mark, but then continued to rise with decreasing positions during the day, indicating a strong willingness of short - sellers to close their positions. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound [7]. 3. Section Summaries Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 29, ICSG reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025, down from 180,000 tons in February. The production was 2.43 million tons and consumption was 2.41 million tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons, compared with 268,000 tons in the same period last year. After adjustment, the surplus in March was 38,000 tons. Also, Chile raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average price of $4.30 per pound this year [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 29, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Ni2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel with their respective premiums were provided, such as Jinchuan electrolytic nickel at 122,910 yuan/ton with a premium of +2,600 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to below 150,000 tons. The TC this week remained flat compared with last week. The zinc mine output in China will increase seasonally from May to June, and the processing fee still has room to rise. The demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the easing of tariff policies has limited boost to zinc downstream. The spot market's concern about smelter maintenance has eased, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the expectation of mine - end increment still exists, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and a short - position allocation strategy should be adopted [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures (2506, 2507, 2508) are presented. For example, the 2507 contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%, and the open interest increased by 1,439 to 123,007 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract showed a decline. The LME zinc inventory decreased significantly. The TC remained stable, and the zinc mine output is expected to increase seasonally. The demand side is in the transition period, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions**: On May 28, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions are reported. In the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,865 - 22,970 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, it was 22,875 - 22,980 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, it was 22,790 - 22,930 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, it was 22,790 - 22,965 yuan/ton. Different brands have different premium quotes relative to different contracts [8][9]. - **Premium Changes**: The premium quotes of different brands in different regions and trading periods are detailed. For example, in the Shanghai market, the second - trading - period premium of ordinary domestic zinc to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, the premium of 0 zinc to the 2506 contract was 200 - 230 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2507 contract was 445 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report mentions various data sources such as Wind and SMM, and shows figures related to the zinc market, including the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE's inter - month spread, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided text [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the market with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, same as aluminum, a short - term equilibrium state with low operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited trading floor operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and trade frictions. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated with limited price movement. The SMM spot copper price was 78,515 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium dropped to 150 yuan, and the Guangdong premium remained at 220 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still below 1,000 yuan. Hold short positions in the 2507 contract [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The East China spot premium remained at 90 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 23,000 tons and 1,000 tons respectively compared to last Thursday. The demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction, but the inventory has smoothly decreased to a low level. Shanghai aluminum continues to test the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. The Guinea -停产 mining area has a long - term shutdown risk, but the impact is less likely to expand. The short - term spot is tight, but the supply elasticity is large after the industry profit recovers. The Guinea ore has support above $70, and it is not advisable to chase short after the futures discount widens [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc once soared due to the news of a possible shutdown of a smelter in Hechi and then回调. The SMM 0 zinc price was 22,730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. The spot in Guangdong is a bit tight, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The TC in June continued to rise. At the end of the peak season, the pressure of weakening domestic and foreign demand is large. Zinc is mainly a short - position allocation [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The traditional consumption peak season is coming to an end. The stainless - steel supply remains high, and the market transaction is still light. The inventory of nickel - iron increased by 900 tons to 29,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 974,000 tons. Short - position investors can consider entering the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin retraced its intraday gains and closed down. The spot tin price slightly rose to 264,800 yuan. Adopt a short - position strategy [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 132,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 600 tons to 41,000 tons, and the smelter inventory increased by 50 tons to 57,000 tons. The downstream restocking willingness is poor, and the upstream has passive restocking. The Australian ore price has fallen nearly 20% in the past two months. The mid - stream production is basically stable. Short - position investors can consider taking profits [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures increased positions significantly, and the price continued to decline, closing at 7,440 yuan/ton. The spot prices of all grades decreased. The supply - side pressure continues to accumulate, and the demand - side performance is weak. The cost - side support is continuously weakening, and the silicon price is expected to continue to decline [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of its intraday losses and rebounded above the cost line of 35,000 yuan/ton. The average price of the SMM re - feed material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. In May, the supply - demand was nearly balanced but did not turn into a de - stocking trend. In June, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decline slightly. The price may have a short - term rebound but is expected to remain weak [11]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 卫立 从业资格：F3075802 交易咨询资格：Z0018108 联系方式：010-56711700 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 铜价保持震荡；LME 期铜涨 0.34%，收至 9519.5；沪铜主连跌 0.13%，收至 77820；COMEX 铜主连跌 0.1%，收至 4.6735。 【重要资讯】 1、美国 5 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值为 52.3，预期 50.8；5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初 值为 52.3，预期 50.1。美国 30 年期国债收益率升至 5.15%，续刷 2023 年 10 月以来最 高水平。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 94.6%，降息 25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色与贵 | 铜 | 震 荡 偏 | 个基点的概率为 5.4%。美联储 7 月维持利率不变的概率为 73.1%，累计降息 25 个基点 的概率为 25.7%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 1.2%。(金十数 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.34%至 9519.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.12%至 | | | | | 77820 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月综合、制造业、服务业 | | | | | PMI 均好于预期，受关税政策缓解影响，美国本月的商业活动和产出预期均有所改 | | | | | 善，制造业和服务业呈现同步增长的态势，特别是新订单相对比较强劲。而欧元区 | 5 | | | | 月综合 PMI 从 4 月的 50.4 降至 49.5，制造业的小幅改善被服务业的下跌所抵消。美 | | | | | 欧经济体之间的对比，或有利于美元后期的企稳表现。特朗普减税案在众院涉险过 | | | | 铜 | 关，正提交参议院审议。美联储理事沃勒表示，减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税稳定 | | | | | 在 10%水平，美联储下半年将降息。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 2300 吨至 166525 | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal futures market showed a significant decline on May 22, with aluminum oxide futures rising over 1% [1] - As of May 22, the main aluminum oxide futures increased by 1.26% to 3224.00 CNY/ton, while other metals like tin, zinc, and lead saw declines of 0.60%, 0.49%, and 0.74% respectively [1] - The opening prices for various non-ferrous metal futures on May 22 included aluminum oxide at 3230.00 CNY, lithium carbonate at 61200.00 CNY, and copper at 78010.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - On May 21, the warehouse receipts for non-ferrous metals showed a decrease in copper by 4520 tons, aluminum by 1625 tons, and lead by 3884 tons, while tin increased by 45 tons [3] - The aluminum oxide warehouse receipts decreased by 16826 tons, indicating a significant reduction in supply [3] - The basis data indicated that several metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon, experienced a "backwardation" phenomenon where spot prices were higher than futures prices [3] Group 3 - The basis and basis rate for various metals showed that copper had a basis of 403 CNY with a basis rate of 0.51%, while zinc had a basis of 359 CNY with a basis rate of 1.58% [4] - Aluminum had a basis of 56 CNY and a basis rate of 0.28%, while nickel showed a basis of 1118 CNY with a basis rate of 0.90% [4] - Lithium carbonate had a basis of 2146 CNY and a basis rate of 3.39%, indicating a strong spot market compared to futures [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market on May 20 showed a mixed trend with most metals declining, particularly industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, while alumina experienced a slight increase [1] Price Movements - Industrial silicon futures fell nearly 2% to 7980.00 CNY/ton, while lithium carbonate dropped 1.24% to 60640.00 CNY/ton [1] - Alumina futures rose by 1.39% to 3133.00 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel futures decreased by 0.50% to 123280.00 CNY/ton [1] Opening and Closing Prices - The opening and closing prices for various metals on May 20 were as follows: - Alumina: Opened at 3149.00 CNY, closed at 3090.00 CNY [1] - Lithium carbonate: Opened at 61160.00 CNY, closed at 61400.00 CNY [1] - Copper: Opened at 77980.00 CNY, closed at 77740.00 CNY [1] - International copper: Opened at 68950.00 CNY, closed at 68940.00 CNY [1] - Aluminum: Opened at 20050.00 CNY, closed at 20165.00 CNY [1] - Lead: Opened at 16860.00 CNY, closed at 16900.00 CNY [1] - Nickel: Opened at 123200.00 CNY, closed at 123900.00 CNY [1] - Zinc: Opened at 22415.00 CNY, closed at 22465.00 CNY [1] - Industrial silicon: Opened at 8065.00 CNY, closed at 8130.00 CNY [1] - Tin: Opened at 265600.00 CNY, closed at 263990.00 CNY [1] Inventory Changes - As of May 19, the inventory data for non-ferrous metals showed: - Copper futures inventory decreased by 1334 tons to 61913 tons [1] - Aluminum futures inventory decreased by 323 tons to 62497 tons [1] - Zinc futures inventory decreased by 474 tons to 1701 tons [1] - Tin futures inventory decreased by 64 tons to 8119 tons [1] - Lead futures inventory increased by 126 tons to 50047 tons [1] - Nickel futures inventory decreased by 30 tons to 23471 tons [1] - International copper futures inventory remained stable at 13744 tons [1] - Alumina futures inventory decreased by 1805 tons to 202930 tons [1] - Lithium carbonate futures inventory increased by 60 hands to 36684 hands [1] - Industrial silicon futures inventory decreased by 287 hands to 66097 hands [1] Basis Data - As of May 19, the basis data indicated a "backwardation" phenomenon for several metals: - Copper: Spot price at 78113.3 CNY, futures price at 77740 CNY, basis at 373 CNY, basis rate at 0.48% [1] - Zinc: Spot price at 22590 CNY, futures price at 22280 CNY, basis at 310 CNY, basis rate at 1.37% [1] - Aluminum: Spot price at 20290 CNY, futures price at 20165 CNY, basis at 125 CNY, basis rate at 0.62% [1] - Lead: Spot price at 16825 CNY, futures price at 16920 CNY, basis at -95 CNY, basis rate at -0.56% [1] - Nickel: Spot price at 125083 CNY, futures price at 123900 CNY, basis at 1183 CNY, basis rate at 0.95% [1] - Tin: Spot price at 265188 CNY, futures price at 263990 CNY, basis at 1198 CNY, basis rate at 0.45% [1] - Industrial silicon: Spot price at 9390 CNY, futures price at 8200 CNY, basis at 1190 CNY, basis rate at 12.67% [1] - Lithium carbonate: Spot price at 63600 CNY, futures price at 61400 CNY, basis at 2200 CNY, basis rate at 3.46% [1] - Polysilicon: Spot price at 38000 CNY, futures price at 37150 CNY, basis at 850 CNY, basis rate at 2.24% [1] - International copper: Spot price at 69235 CNY, futures price at 68940 CNY, basis at 295 CNY, basis rate at 0.43% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. With the Fed likely not to cut rates before September, China's April economic data showing mixed signals, and inventory changes, the market's risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger. There are also concerns about a potential squeeze on short positions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain strong in the near - term due to news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness expected. Attention should be paid to Yunnan's power policies, inventory trends, and international trade frictions [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Although nickel ore prices are firm, the cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. The US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, and the Fed may not cut rates before September. China's April consumption slightly exceeded expectations, but fixed - asset investment growth was low, and the real estate market showed signs of a decline. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, Comex warehouse receipts increased by 650 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.72 tons. As copper prices rise, downstream demand may slow. The market is also concerned about a potential squeeze on short positions, so copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and positions increased. Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.62%, and positions decreased. Spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the premium on aluminum ingots widened. The news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts may drive alumina prices higher in the near - term. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with low inventory currently but potential weakening demand and cost reduction in the future. The price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,500/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.31% to 123,520 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: From May 16 to May 19, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 720 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 999 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 570 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 5,968 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased slightly. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 13,585 tons. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,175 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The price of nickel sulfate decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.15 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%. LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 302 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46].