Core Insights - The futures market for oils has seen a significant increase, with soybean oil's main contract rising above 8000 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.58% [1] - Palm oil's main contract has also experienced a notable rise of nearly 1%, reaching 8378 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for rapeseed oil has seen its decline narrow to 0.37%, now priced at 9477 yuan/ton [1] - A key development influencing these movements is Brazil's decision to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated and declined yesterday. Geopolitical factors caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the improved weather in US production areas put downward pressure on the overall oils and fats market [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan or 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176.00 yuan or 2.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,572.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149.00 yuan or 1.53% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or 1.62%, with a spot basis of P09 + 154.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.45%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 210.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.52%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 178.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: US President Trump called on Israel to stop bombing Iran, stating that it "seriously violated" the fragile cease - fire agreement between the two countries announced a few hours ago. China's central bank and five other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which mentioned implementing monetary policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. In the short term, the domestic soybean crushing volume remains at a peak level, with soybean oil production exceeding downstream提货量, and inventory continuing to rise. As of the end of the 25th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 986,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons or 3.06% compared to the previous week. Among them, the coastal inventory was 892,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 2.59% compared to the previous week [2] - **Import Prices**: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 613 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) was 603 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,118 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of imported rapeseed oil from Canada (July shipment) was 1,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) was 461 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (July shipment) was 456 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) was 462 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (July shipment) was 226 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (July shipment) was 199 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 200 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is neutral [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed led to sufficient supply, putting pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,520 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -16 yuan and a decline of -0.19% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,126 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30 yuan and a decline of -0.37% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,721 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -5 yuan and a decline of -0.05% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,620 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -110 yuan and a decline of -1.26%. The spot basis was P09 + 100 yuan, with a环比 change of -94 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -60 yuan and a decline of -0.72%. The spot basis was Y09 + 154 yuan, with a环比 change of -30 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10 yuan and a decline of -0.10%. The spot basis was OI09 + 179 yuan, with a环比 change of -5 yuan [1] Market News - On January 9, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,095 US dollars, down 15 US dollars from the previous day, and the CIF price was 1,125 US dollars, down 15 US dollars from the previous day - From June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 2.5%环比 compared to the same period last month - India's soybean oil imports in June are expected to decline by 18%环比, reaching the lowest level in four months - About 50% of Malaysia's exports to Nigeria are palm oil, with an export value of 600 million US dollars in 2024 - The FOB price of new - crop Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% to be shipped before the end of July is 227 US dollars per ton, up 5 US dollars from the previous week. Consulting agency SovEcon estimates the new - crop wheat price to be 226 - 230 US dollars per ton, compared with 225 - 229 US dollars per ton the previous week [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the U.S. soybean sowing is basically finished, the proportion of abnormally dry areas in soybean - growing regions has decreased, geopolitical tensions have eased, and some long - position holders took profit, leading to a slight decline in CBOT soybean futures. The export growth of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 20 has narrowed, market demand is weak, the energy market is volatile, and Malaysian palm oil futures are oscillating at high levels [5]. - Domestically, a large amount of imported soybeans have arrived at ports, oil mills are operating at a high level, and soybean oil inventory continues to rise. However, the increase in import costs strongly supports soybean oil prices. Palm oil inventory has rebounded from a low level, with little change in the domestic fundamentals, and its price continues to follow the external market. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil exceeds demand, the uncertainty of China - Canada trade policies still threatens later imports, and the rising ICE rapeseed futures support the relatively strong trend of domestic rapeseed oil [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - From June 14 - 20, the weekly output of毛豆油 in key regions of China was 452,998 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase and a 25.20% year - on - year increase [2]. - As of June 20, 2025 (Week 25), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 434,900 tons, a 25,300 - ton (6.18%) week - on - week increase and a 42,800 - ton (10.91%) year - on - year increase [2]. - According to SGS, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 20 was 759,881 tons, a 16.66% increase from the same period last month [2]. - As of June 18, the soybean harvest progress in Argentina's 2024/25 season was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind the same period last year [2]. - In May, China's total soybean imports reached a record 13.92 million tons, more than double the 10 - year low of 6.08 million tons in April and significantly higher than the same period last year, partly due to the concentrated clearance of previously delayed shipments [2]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: U.S. soybean sowing is over, dry conditions in growing regions have improved, geopolitical tensions have eased, causing CBOT soybean futures to decline. Malaysian palm oil export growth has slowed, demand is weak, and the energy market is unstable, resulting in high - level oscillations of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: A large amount of imported soybeans have arrived, oil mills are highly operational, and soybean oil inventory is rising, but import costs support prices. Palm oil inventory has rebounded, with domestic fundamentals stable and prices following the external market. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, trade policy uncertainty affects imports, and rising ICE rapeseed futures support the strong trend of domestic rapeseed oil [6].

华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 研究报告 油脂周报 利好刺激，油脂大幅上涨 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价大幅上涨，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 4.75%， 以 8156 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约上涨 4.86%以 8536 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约上涨 4.47%，以 9726 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 6 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 798813 吨，较上月同期出口的 720422 吨 增加 10.88%。马棕榈油上涨 4.79%。 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 23 星期一 豆油方面：6 月 13 日，美国环保署（EPA）公布最新的掺混 标准提案，该提案大幅提高了 2026 年和 2027 年生物质基柴油义 务量目标，将2026 年生物燃料混合总量设定为240.2 亿加仑，202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]

油脂周报 | 2025-06-22 受多重利好持续提振，油脂偏强运行 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2509合约8536元/吨，环比上涨396元，涨幅4.86%；本周收盘豆油2509合约8156元 /吨，环比上涨370元，涨幅4.75%；本周收盘菜油2509合约9726元/吨，环比上涨416元，涨幅4.47%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8480元/吨，环比上涨250元，涨幅2.95%，现货基差P09+194，环比下跌146元；天津 地区一级豆油现货价格8340元/吨，环比上涨300元/吨，涨幅3.73%，现货基差Y09+184，环比下跌70元；江苏 地区四级菜油现货价格9910元/吨，环比上涨400元，涨幅4.2%，现货基差OI09+184，环比下跌16元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，马来西亚棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）最新数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产 减少3.85%，出油率下调0.03%，棕榈油产量减少4%。由于前期产量同比增加幅度明显、基数增大，近期棕榈油 产量环比止增下降，供应方面对价格暂无较大压力，持续关注产区天气情况。周内（6.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].

油脂：市场情绪缓和 油脂震荡偏强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 물 | в | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8152.00 | 8084.00 | 68.00 | 0.84% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8538.00 | 8518.00 | 20.00 | 0.23% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 9691.00 | 9703.00 | -12.00 | -0.12% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1072.75 | 1074.00 | -1.25 | -0.12% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/磅 | 54.62 ...

油脂：原油冲高回落 油脂涨势放缓 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SHF | HE | E | 数据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 7972.00 | 7960.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 8446.00 | 8436.00 | 10.00 | 0.12% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 9583.00 | 9505.00 | 78.00 | 0.82% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1068.50 | 1.50 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/磅 | 55.11 ...